Sky News reports a 53-47 Newspoll result, with Labor on 47 per cent of the primary vote against 42 per cent for the Coalition. More to follow.
UPDATE: Graphic here. The 10 per cent shift from Labor to “someone else” on the question of best party to handle the environment is interesting – but then so is Peter Garrett’s 45-33 lead over Malcolm Turnbull. Note the spike in support for Garrett among the 35-49 age group that grew up with Midnight Oil on the radio.
UPDATE 2: Possum Comitatus in Crikey:
This week’s Newspoll figures have the problem of slightly undervaluing the preference flows the ALP receives from the minor parties, meaning that it’s more likely than not that the next Newspoll will probably fix that up. These slight rounding problems and sampling volatility of the minor parties all come out in the wash over a few polls. When you combine that with the ALP primary looking rock solid at 47/48, it’s almost expected that in the next poll or two, the two party preferred headline figure will show the ALP increasing its lead – simply as a result of the high ALP primary vote combining with this minor party sampling error and rounding issues. But should that happen, the headlines will undoubtedly scream “Interest Rate Backlash!” as some new 55/45 poll shows the ALP gaining a two point lead from the previous poll, the best poll the government had enjoyed for 12 months, but one which no-one paid attention to because the ponies were on.
Adam, your a bit too smart to think that Newspoll not giving voters the option of Greens means that the Greens vote is accurate. It just means that when they turn up at a polling booth and get a green how to vote card they vote Greens.
I think it’s phenomenal that 4-5% of people keep nominating Greens even though the pollster asks Labor or Liberal.
Have a look at Galaxy and Ac Nielson… they seem to be right on the Green vote. Newspoll is overestimating the Labor vote and underestimating Greens.
Newspoll is also underestimating the other parties like Family First.
62 barbara I watched Geelong demolish North Melbourne by over 100 points, and then Collingwood go down by 5 points or whatever, as a Collingwood supporter I didn’t feel that bad. In fact I feel really good about next year already.
Also, Darn,
Can you please also wear a t-shirt with “its time” written on it, just like Gough at the top of this blog site?
Samuel K,
Newspoll was more volatile in the lead up to 2004 and they have changed the way they estimate TPP since then. Primary figures are the telling number.
A lot of people thinking that Labor will win – 60%. A lot of doubtful Lib voters out there.
Does anyone know how the exclusion of the NT electorates figure in this?
Guys, check out the numbers on the pdf. This is seriously not a big shift in any sense – we’re back top were we were in mid October. Lib primary is 37, ALP primary is 47. Yes, I’d personally be happier if it were going the other way, but really, don’t stress. Rudd is 6 or so goals up going in to the last quarter. Can they lose? Anything can happen, but it won’t. Look also at the betting markets. They are very good.
Bon soir! May the horse be with you!
John Hunt Is A Coward:-
In 1998 One nation got 8.43% of the national vote
One Nation contested 135 electorates with preferences slightly favoring the Liberal/National Coalition (53.66%), please note nearly half the One Nation preferences went to labor, Its a fallacy that one Nation supporters primary preferenced the liberals
Have a look at this for a contrived 2PP result:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/newspoll-6nov.pdf
Compare the results of today’s poll with the Sep 14-16 result. On Sep 14-16, the Coalition primary vote was 1 point less than it was in this poll, and on that date they quoted the result as 55-45.
Doesn’t make sense. I’d like to know why the preferences are so different this week. The Greens vote is 1 point higher in todays poll as well. Something isn’t right here.
On that note, and feeling very suspicious of Newspoll, I’m calling it a night.
Polls are only indicative and not predictive so regardless of the actual numbers there remains a very clear indication that a “majority” want a change of Govt.
Looking at the raw numbers of that poll doesn’t make sense either. The only change from the last Newspoll is a 1% primary shift from ALP to Greens which they inexplicably convert to a 2% change in TPP. All other figures are the same, makes no sense at all to me.
Nevertheless 19 days to go and polls of 53/47 (Newspoll) and 54/46(Galaxy) over the same sampling period is a good enough indication for me of what the majority want for the 24th and that hard core does not seem to be changing.
I’ve always thought the final outcome would be around 53/47 (6% swing), anything above that is very rare indeed.
OH!!! OH!!! Oh!!! OH!!!
Just read the graphic on supplementary questions and saw that Labor’s lead on the environment has dropped 10bp in just under a month.
Coincides with the green vote coming up a notch
Maybe the focus on Garrett is starting to bit
A good poll result for Labour it will give the Liberals false hope, and scare more voters away from Howard if they think he has a chance of winning.
Samuel, Newspoll’s preference flows were wrong that election, they are more accurate now, look at AC and Galaxy in the ’04 election, they told a more accurate story
“John Hunt Is A Coward” – love the nick – Dr Spooner would probably not have agreed – but he was ‘sent from oxford on the town drain” – spots of lunarisms 😉
Chris B so that explains your leftwingness, a pies supporter ewww!
But you can tell that as a Tory i support Melbourne but still.
Mr Squiggle (146) Be warned. Whatever I wear it’s not going to be a pretty sight.
Tanner on LL-Business. He performs well – Labor shot trot him out more often.
Thanks for keeping the old site up William – much easier to use – but I’m sure we’ll get used to Crikey …
Anyway – night folks. Good luck on the GGs tomorrow.
Squiggle, so long as ALP primary vote only slips to the Greens, I won’t care.
Have a good night people – I like Bart’s horse in the Cup (but as I said earlier, it’s the first year since I was 10 I haven’t cared)
What I find interesting is the shift back to 1100 polled from 1700. Can anyone give me a reason for this?
I love Peter Cundall, but is he in danger of being deported?
Courtesy of Antony… something to help all comrades sleep soundly…
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=national&national=5.7&nsw=0&vic=0&qld=0&wa=0&sa=0&tas=0&act=0&nt=0&retiringfactor=1
The rates rise has been a near certain for more than a week. It won’t be a major factor. It has already been under consideration – what with the media going on an on about it. The people polled over the weekend for Newspoll would have taken it into account.
Squiggle, I remember a NZ Greens MP promising to streak through his electorate if he lost his seat. He lost…
If it gives the Libs comfort let them have this poll.
I have made this point before. I’ll say it again. The national 2pp is a statistician’s nicety. It is meaningless because there isn’t one election happening, there are 150. The 2pp only means something in the seats themselves.
Secondly, a nice way of thinking about the primary figures for the ALP is that it represents an average primary vote for all of the 150 elections going around the country. There will be high 50s and low 30s that make up this number, which we can anticipate to be in the mid- to high 40s.
From what we know, the primary vote surge has been concentrated in several states, and in particular types of seats. One thing that is ominous for the coalition is most of the surge has NOT been in safe Labor seats, but in the marginals and in “safe” coalition seats (I suspect in the band of seats with 6-12% margins).
So, in reality, a “narrowing” means very little. One explanation for it, if anyone cares, is an improvement for the coalition in the 6-12% seats. “Annihilation” may have been avoided, but not the loss.
I still reckon the post-election landscape will be a mirror image of the notional one we have now: 88-60-2.
(For the ubernerds out there, this is exactly what happened last year in the US congressional elections: a total reversal)
In this poll minor parties are
Greens 5
Others 6
which are split ALP 6 Coalition 5
In the poll of Oct 19-21 the identical minor parties percentages were apportioned to ALP 7 Coalition 4.
In 2004 ALP received approx 80% of Greens preferences and 45% of non Green preferences. Applying those percentages here gives ALP 6.7 Coalition 4.3
I suspect there is a bit of rounding going on here.
To have a rate rise tipped and to actually get one is two different things, once it is official and people have to start squeezing their budgets to pay for it, they will resent Howard and Costello.
Unfortunately I think it’s gonna be close.
Govt’s don’t just change by themselves, it takes great collective momentum and will. I have always thought that the risk aversity of the Australian electorate will kick in and make the election much closer than the polls.
Can we at least agree that the Narrowing is occurring?
153 Mr Squiggle
Garrett would have suffered a few flesh wounds, but nothing compared to the major damage Howard is sustaining.
Garrett will heal.
Tomorrow’s Headline – “All Set for the Cup”
Wednesday’s Headline – “Zip Zip Zipping – wins the Cup”
Thursday’s Headline – “Rates up Again”
The last 2 are certainties 😉
If you look at the inflation figures and annualise them based on the last 2 quarters we are actually up over 4% – RBA will have to move on rates, and the fact Howard and Costello are talking up drought and oil prices guarantee it.
6 points becomes 8 or 10 again next week.
TofK,
They polled 1,700, but then excluded 600 Labor voters! lol
Labor is going to lose
Liberal will win and punish the disloyal
It will be interesting to see the detailed figures. 53-47 seems like an unusual split on primary votes of 47-42. You would anticipate that Labor would gain more than only one point on Greens preferences.
Personally I always expected the polls to draw closer, as have many others.
The questions is whether this is a trend, or a shift following the calling of the election. That is, are we seeing an inverse repeat of 2001, or a repeat of 2004?
My guess is the latter. The ALP primary is holding up strongly at about 48-46. The main shift has been from an increase in the Coalition primary from about 39-40 to 42. Barring one Newspoll, this has been reflected in all the polls since the election was called. This has translated directly into a narrowing of the TPP. If we go back to Possum’s analysis of awhile ago, the Coalition has not had an impact on the 5 per cent who left them two years ago, and who went to the ALP when Rudd became leader. The shift since the election was called has been in the second group who were willing to flirt with the ALP on Rudd’s election, but were not as serious as the first group.
The question is where can the Coalition claw back further votes. I think they’ve basically got as much as they can, barring any major mishaps. The minors have as small a share of the vote as is likely on election day, which means they have to start making inroads into the ALP primary. No wonder they’re flogging the Garrett line for all they’re worth. However (and I’m glad this has finally been picked up in the press), you have to wonder how they’ll make a dent with their message all over the place.
168
Samuel K Says:
November 5th, 2007 at 11:38 pm
‘Unfortunately I think it’s gonna be close.
Govt’s don’t just change by themselves, it takes great collective momentum and will’.
Exactly. And will!
Wrong, AM. Wrong. The rate rise will make people think twice before entrusting the economy to Labor.
Tipping a .50% rate rise!
Next week’s poll will be the biggy. If the Coalition can see off cup week and a certain interest rates rise without losng any ground on this result, or possibly even gaining, then things will become very interesting.
#172 –
“Labor is going to lose
Liberal will win and punish the disloyal”
Oh, yeah. And how the blood will flow….
Yes Steven because we all know Howard can keep interest rates at record lows. After all, he PROMISED it.
TofK – sample for main poll is 1708, for supplementary q’s about 1100.
Garrett leads Turnbull on environment substantially.
Distribution of preferences and the lower green vote is where it’s at, plus Nats have climbed a bit. These small party votes will be more volatile because of small cell sizes in that group. 5% of 1708 is 85 people, across Australia.
I’m with Rod Cameron, but wouldn’t mind the ALP starting to campaign with a bit more vim!
It really is time to have a day off.
And William, with utmost respect, this is a much more pleasant environment than over at Crikey land, IMHO!
176
You are deluded like your Leader JWH, and you both don’t like taking your medicine.
Howard can’t even win his own seat let alone an election 🙂
But Steve, Howard has admitted that he can’t control interest rates. Costello said today: “there’s not much the Govt can do about it”!
If the last 3 years has tought us anything, it’s that the Aust Govt doesn’t control the Aust economy. People have cottoned on to the Liberal con.
yes, “The Lib’s primary went down? The National’s went up???
Ok, I can go to sleep now. What a laugh”
indeed: Libs down a point, 38 to 37, nats up a point, 4-5, situation normal: 42
further, isn’t “win expectations” one of the key performance indicators for Crosby Textor, and doesn’t this poll show that going from 52% up to 60% for labor this is the highest its been, while by the same token for the Libs et al, win expectations have gone down from 30% to 26%….
far far removed from the good old days in september 2004 when the figures were reversed…and the libs were scoring 50 to labors 30
the alp is scoring 60….
does this mean anything at all, and if not why do CT care about it so much in their research
i guess, like the RBA knows, everything is expectations management…
so finesse the TPP figures as much as he likes, lets see shanahan write about this aspect
and if this don’t make sense happy for you other bloggers to let me know,
ta
Comrades, the omen bet for the Cup is Blue Monday after the song by NEW ORDER. Rudd could use that phrase!
That’s it, for me folks.
I’ll return when the trolls are bunkered down once more, earnestly crayoning in their instructions. Crosby Textas.
Sleep well. No reason at all not to..
Tabitha – you sound just like that character in Harry Potter who worships Voldemort. I don’t think she ends well.
I suspect by the end of tomorrow, this thread will have about 600 posts – very few of these posts will have added very much to the fact that the poll has changed 1% on 2pp. This is not statistically significant (in a poll of 1100 people it means they polled 11 people with a different opinion from last week) – the same happened after the Galaxy poll changed 1% the other way. Most contributions on the thread seem to be 53% = disaster, 54% would have = jubilation.
Come on people – if you want to keep or change the government – sitting on this blog and arguing about how many angels can dance on a pin head is not the way to do it. Contact your local candidate or member and get active!
Folks, for anyone who’s interested in exploring further the seemingly dodgy 2pp of this latest Newspoll, try comparing it with the figures given for the Newspoll on 14-16 September. In that one the Labor vote was 47, the coalition was 1 less at 41 and the greens were 1 less at 4, yet the 2pp was 55/45. Surely there’s something wrong here.(See full set of Newspoll figures below).
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/newspoll-6nov.pdf
General Wenck is just 6 kilometers from re-leaving us.
Darn it all comes down to perception, the perception of 53-47 is that the Coalition is coming back, which could build its support further and stop a bandwagon effect to Labor.
If the 53/47 isn’t based on the marginals newspoll released today- that would mean that the swing in the marginals matches the nation wide?
That could be analysed in many, many interesting ways I am sure.
i dont get the 6/5 preference split either, the Australian says it is based on 2004, but that doesn’t add up- gotta wait for the data i guess.