Sky News reports a 53-47 Newspoll result, with Labor on 47 per cent of the primary vote against 42 per cent for the Coalition. More to follow.
UPDATE: Graphic here. The 10 per cent shift from Labor to “someone else” on the question of best party to handle the environment is interesting – but then so is Peter Garrett’s 45-33 lead over Malcolm Turnbull. Note the spike in support for Garrett among the 35-49 age group that grew up with Midnight Oil on the radio.
UPDATE 2: Possum Comitatus in Crikey:
This week’s Newspoll figures have the problem of slightly undervaluing the preference flows the ALP receives from the minor parties, meaning that it’s more likely than not that the next Newspoll will probably fix that up. These slight rounding problems and sampling volatility of the minor parties all come out in the wash over a few polls. When you combine that with the ALP primary looking rock solid at 47/48, it’s almost expected that in the next poll or two, the two party preferred headline figure will show the ALP increasing its lead – simply as a result of the high ALP primary vote combining with this minor party sampling error and rounding issues. But should that happen, the headlines will undoubtedly scream “Interest Rate Backlash!” as some new 55/45 poll shows the ALP gaining a two point lead from the previous poll, the best poll the government had enjoyed for 12 months, but one which no-one paid attention to because the ponies were on.
Hope for the Coalition after all. I guess it will be close then?
Glen 89 I will be jumping out of my skin and celebrating a 51-49 on 24th Nov. You will be doing the squirming…lol
Aren’t we a tragic lot. All over the country people real voting people are thinking horses and us lot are posting about the latest polling missive
Lateline. Peter, Gardening Australia, calling a spade a spade on Turnbull and pulp mill.
Bob Browne. Mackerras and predictions. Greens, balance of power. And ANTONY!
Yes, 50-50 is out of the question, Mr Squiggle.
It’s nice that Antony has brought up The Narrowing, however. Now, that wasn’t so hard, was it?
Poll wars:
An article outlining how to manipulate polls, mainly talks about how they suspect Newspoll manipulates it’s polls for News Limited to use for their agenda.
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2077051.htm
#94 Actually Glen, just the best result since Galaxy a few weeks ago.
51-49 anybody can win John Hunt the ALP needs 52-48 and do well in the marginals to win.
The Tories are just 2 points 2PP from making this election a line ball affair.
Does anybody know what happened to STROP and Cedric?
Mackerras re control of Senate. Mr Howard is a control freak, lets, face it. And once he had control of the Senate….
ANTONY, IN CONVERSATION.
Yes, Tim. We are.
For the first time since Grade 4 I don’t have a clue about the Cup.
After Nov 25, at least I will get my life back
A quick look at the pdf (as supplied earlier by yoyama) shows this is a great result for Labor.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/newspoll-5nov.pdf
This is no clawback.
For a start, they have polled different seats in NSW from the previous poll. Just look at the NSW 2PP. In 2004 for the NSW seats last week the 2PP was 48.8%. With today’s poll the 2PP in 2004 was 46.3% which shows a 2.5% difference. No wonder Labor’s vote went down from last weeks marginal poll.
They polled different seats!
Besides, after all this nonsense, there’s still a 7% swing overall and Qld holding up very nicely, thank you.
sorry bryce – that’s just a poll of the marginals
Full Newspoll results appear available at http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/newspoll-6nov.pdf
That Irish horse and Mahler, and Purple Moon..
It is hard to concentrate when..
Sorry Bryce – I jumped the gun! Now I’ve read your post I see what you mean. (sorry)
Mr Squiggle (95) If the TPP reaches 50/50 at any time in the next three weeks I will bare my arse in any public place of your choice and everyone else on this site is invited to come along and watch.
Bryce that’s last weekend’s poll you are talking about. YoYo got it wrong.
#103 Didn`t Cerdic get the boot for…writing ontinuous drivel or something?
Glen you have not got One Nation 10% preferences flowing to you like in 1998. So you will need more than 50+ to win election.
And maybe that horse, Zippy or something like, if it light and if it rains.
Oh I was concerned until I went and looked at the seats and the figures. 53 is great. I can now sleep a happy girl … yay for Kevin 07.
The Lib’s primary went down? The National’s went up???
Ok, I can go to sleep now. What a laugh
The Good old Nats are on 5% and the Libs went down 1%.
Did anybody see Vaile looking like a complete noob on the skate board, those agrarian socialists will do anything for a vote lol!
Labor retains lead: Newspoll
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22709051-601,00.html
“The latest Newspoll survey, conducted exclusively for The Australian last weekend, shows Labor in front of the Coalition 53 per cent to 47 per cent on two-party preferred terms, which take into account preference flows in the 2004 election.”
Preference is based on 2004 election, so the 2pp is not based on how preferences will be distributed at this election.
Rudd should go on Rove
i think it might be good news to labor ….. now they should understand they still have 3 more week to fight and need to fight very hard to win office
For those worrying about the ‘narrowing’ or predicting a 50/50 TPP have another look at this from Ozpolitics:
which compares 1996 with 2007.
There was a ‘narrowing’ 2 weeks out: Labor Primary up to 43, Coalition down to 47. Didn’t stop the landslide.
Very nice.
It’s all falling into place. With the rate rise on Wednesday, the PM will be able to hammer home his message that the economy is facing inflationary pressures resulting from the drought, soaring oil prices and booming growth (business confidence and investment are at 13 year highs) and that Krudd and his band of cretins and goons will not be able to manage them properly, further driving up rates. The good employment news on Thursday will only underscore his theme.
So it’s been a good couple of days – Garrett’s admission, Kerry O’Brien’s deliciously public humiliation (he looked terrible tonight), and now this poll.
The BIG number increase is the 8% jump from 52-60% on who do you think will win.
These are very good figures for the ALP.
If anyone disagrees, I just say, let me have them on Nov 24.
Not great numbers but won’t get too worried unless there is a trend towards the Coalition in the next two Newspolls. It was never going to be easy but I must say Kevin Rudd has done really well to have maintained such a gap at this stage of the campaign.
So the Nats have taken 1% from the Libs, and the Greens 1% from Labor as far as I can tell. So no change.
Grog, I’m backing Master O’Reilly. I’m going to put more on now after this poll, and I’ll play the percentages by having Purple Moon running for me.
Glen that was the funniest sight of the campaign. I can’t believe he put the cap on backwards!
Things you have to do.
So Galaxy and Newspoll are saying the same thing (though 1 with a higher ALP TPP, and the other with a higher ALP primary), and the commentary of the first is Labor maintains lead, and the other is Coaltion back in the game. How 1% changes everything.
#95 –
“Both Tony and Anthony Green looked and sounded a little subdued as they discussed these numbers tonight on lateline.”
Election night on the ABC will be extremely entertaining. Will Jim Middleton cry? Will Green’s laptop explode? I can’t wait.
Ok Darn, I think a shopping mall at bennalong would do it
Oh hang on a minute, Darn are you male or female?
Sorry William, maybe we should send the children to bed before this gets out of hand
AM @ 101
i hadn’t seen that article by Ellis but it sums up what i’ve been seeing(and Rod Cameron and others obviously) from newspoll and artriculated on the first page.
their numbers are skewed at will to fit their narrative.
the 59-41’s were a farce and so is this 53-47 off 47-42 primaries.
Funny how some media outlets were spinning the Galaxy poll by focussing on the primary vote, which was 45-42. Now that a NewsPoll has emerged showing a primary vote of 47-42, which doesn’t suit their narrative, I suspect that talk will return to the TPP vote, and Teh Narrowing.
By the way, will the guy who ran a tipping competition for number of ALP seats won venture into decimal places and colect posters’ predictions on the ALP TPP and primary vote? 🙂
For the record, my TPP tip is 53.8%, off a primary of 45.6%.
A big drop in the ALP’s handling of the environmet (though obvioulsy all went to “Someone else” (gee I wonder who??? – why not just say The Greens???) – but Garrett still ahead of Turnbull.
Kaye,
Funny how the polls take on this new significance when “your man” appears to gain. Interesting to take from this poll that 60% of people now believe that Loabor will win, as opposed to 26% for the Coalition. This is the highest this has been for Labor all year. It seems that more and more are accepting the prospect of an ALP victory, and I daresay there will be those who choose to back a probable winner.
The preferences aren’t making much sense to me especially following the Galaxy preference flow. Im sticking with the primaries and 47% is a strong result for Labor and it hasn’t moved for about a month. ALP by 23 seats.
So …. with the lead narrowing in the polls in this particular week, IF Labor do lose the election…
with 1998 remembered as the election Labor won, but still lost; 2001 the ‘Tampa’ election; and 2004 the Latham disaster … will 2007 be remembered as the Garrett Gaffe election?
Thanks yoyoma (108) Now that we know the greens got 5% that 53/47 split looks very dodgy. If as Adam says the green vote splits 80-20 to Labour (a reasonable assumption) and the remaining 6% is no worse than 50/50 (another reasonable assumption), it would add up to 47+ 4 + 3 = 54% to Labor. This would also help to fix the strange discrepancy with Galaxy 2pp which others were commenting on earlier.
Lindsay Tanner on Lateline business
It was Labor 52.5-47.5 at this point in the 2004 campaign – eek!!!
So labors primary is still absolutely rock solid, despite the PG Gaffe. For 9 months its been in the region of 47 to 49. Whatever happens it doesn’t move. For labor not to win it it would have to suddenly drop 5 points in less than 3 weeks, does anybody seriously think this will happen.
Just a thought …has not the mooted interest rate rise been factored into the punters’ phsyche and therefore the polls for over a week now?
And what guarantee is there that Joe Punchclock will go for a change of govt. if he becomes concerned about rising interest rates, despite the possible perception of a broken promise?
Grog’s rule of elections – the winner will be the party that most people think will win.
That was the hardest stat for the ALP to crack.
And to think officially the election really hasn’t even started yet (I mean we haven’t had the “campaign launches yet lol)
Also, NewsPoll rounds to the nearest whole number. Maybe this week’s TPP is really 53.4%, while last week’s was 53.6% 🙂
I think practically every polling major has now had a turn at being “Government stooge”. (Yes, even Morgan!)
Interesting numbers for the ‘better at the economy’ question: running at more than 2 to 1 in Labor’s favour except for the over 50s. This would indicate that the oldies might be the only ones to buy a Garrett scare, and according to George M on Insiders last Sunday, this just aint gonna be enough.