If you believe Jason Koutsoukis of The Age, dumped Labor MP Gavan O’Connor is not only the unanimous inaugural winner of the Mal Colston Medal for Treachery, he is also doomed to certain defeat by Labor candidate Richard Marles in his bid to retain Corio as an independent. Koutsoukis writes matter-of-factly of the perks awaiting O’Connor “after he loses the election, which he surely will”. However, this was written before Glenn Milne of The Australian rocked Canberra* with his shock revelation* that “senior figures at the Melbourne (Liberal) campaign headquarters” were finalising arrangements to preference O’Connor ahead of Marles (* sarcasm alert), placing O’Connor “in the middle of the perfect election storm”.
To provide some historical perspective, I present the recent history of sitting members dumped at preselection who sought revenge at the ballot box. I do not doubt there are a number I have missed, particularly at state level, where the only one that immediately sprang to mind was Steven Pringle in Hawkesbury at the New South Wales election in March. Readers are encouraged to note any such omissions in comments and I will rectify them in due course.
• Moore and Curtin (Federal 2006): The only examples on this list where the independents actually won the day were these two Perth seats at the 1996 election, in which sitting members Paul Filing and Allan Rocher respectively lost preselection to Paul Stevenage and Ken Court (brother of then-Premier Richard Court). These results were widely blamed on the machinations of controversial Liberal warlord Noel Crichton-Browne, although the reality was more complicated. The important thing was that they incurred the displeasure of John Howard. This led to the Liberal candidates’ campaigns being starved of resources, and an apparently accurate perception emerging that the independents retained the imprimatur of the party leader. In blue-ribbon Curtin, Rocher easily outpolled Labor 29.4 per cent to 19.8 per cent, proceeding to an easy victory over Court (39.2 per cent) on Labor preferences. Paul Filing won even more resoundingly in Moore, leading the primary vote with 34.1 per cent to Labor’s 28.4 per cent and the Liberals’ 27.3 per cent. The 1998 election saw both members defeated by less contentious Liberal candidates.
• Wentworth (Federal 2004): Malcolm Turnbull’s well-funded move against one-term Liberal member Peter King succeeded by 88 preselection votes to 70, but King did not take his defeat lying down, announcing he would stand as an independent at a press conference on Bondi Beach in the first week of the campaign. Despite vigorous campaigning attended by intense publicity, King recorded only 18.0 per cent of the vote and finished well behind Labor’s David Patch on 26.3 per cent. While Turnbull’s 41.8 per cent was well down on the 52.1 per cent King recorded as Liberal candidate in 2001, it converted into an unembarrassing 2.3 per cent two-party swing after distribution of King’s preferences.
• Dickson (Federal 1998): After one term as Liberal member, the political career of Tony Smith (most certainly not to be confused with the current member for Casey) imploded when he was questioned by police after leaving a building which housed a brothel. Smith forestalled preselection defeat by quitting the Liberal Party and declaring his intention to run as an independent (so arguably this one doesn’t count). By this time it had emerged that the Labor candidate for the coming election would be defecting Democrats leader Cheryl Kernot. Smith predictably failed to set the tally board alight, polling 9.0 per cent of the vote, and Kernot went on to win by 176 votes.
• Hawkesbury (NSW 2007): Liberal member Steven Pringle was dumped after one term in favour of Ray Williams, who had the backing of the ascendant forces of the Right. It was reported that Pringle lost control after an influx of Lebanese Maronite Christians swelled membership of the Beaumont Hills branch from 17 members to 500; according to the Sydney Morning Herald, this included 120 members who transferred from a branch in Hornsby after leader Peter Debnam denied them an influence there by insisting its Left faction incumbent Judy Hopwood keep the seat. Pringle reacted to his defeat by quitting the party and reiterating the popular theme that it had become “controlled by an exclusive sect, an extremist right-wing group”, of which the “Godfather” was upper house MP David Clarke. This prompted a rebuke from the Prime Minister, who described him as a “hypocrite” and a “sore loser”. The former judgement was based on the manner of Pringle’s own preselection at the 2003 election, when he ousted Kevin Rozzoli with support from what Simon Benson of the Daily Telegraph described as “right-wing extremists as well as the left”. Pringle did succeed in getting ahead of the Labor candidate, whom he outpolled 27.1 per cent to 16.0 per cent, but Williams’ 45.6 per cent primary vote was enough to get him over the line by a 6.6 per cent margin. The margin would have been narrower but for the optional preferential voting system, which saw many Labor votes exhaust.
• Newcastle (NSW 2007): After holding the seat since 1991, Bryce Gaudry was contentiously dumped for preselection in 2006 following intervention by Labor’s national executive. As Damien Murphy of the Sydney Morning Herald describes it, Gaudry had been “regarded as a sincere plodder who made a nuisance of himself during the Carr era with a long-running critique of office-winning policies”, prompting his Left faction to sacrifice him by surrendering Newcastle to the Right in exchange for the Sydney seats of Londonderry and Toongabbie. The Right had initially hoped to recruit Newcastle lord mayor John Tate, who had not been part of the Labor grouping on council, had defeated the party’s incumbent lord mayor in 1999, and floated the possibility of running as an independent at the 2003 election. Tate claimed to have been told when approached that Gaudry was planning to retire, and got cold feet when it became apparent that this was not so, and that the Left-controlled local branches still backed Gaudry. Morris Iemma and Mark Arbib then surprised everybody by having the national executive intervene to support a new candidate, 37-year-old former television news reader and public relations consultant Jodi McKay. This the national executive agreed to do, splitting 13-7 in McKay’s favour on factional lines. The reaction in local party circles was typified by former federal Newcastle MP Allan Morris, who wrote first an open letter to Tate criticising his intention to run for Labor, and then a letter to then-federal leader Kim Beazley decrying the installation of McKay. Tate and Gaudry both declared their intention to run as independents, although Gaudry’s hoped dimmed when it emerged he had not told Morris Iemma of the explosive local rumours surrounding Swansea MP Milton Orkopoulos, a colleague of Gaudry in the party’s “soft Left” faction. Gaudry ended up finishing third behind McKay (31.2 per cent) and Tate (24.1 per cent), and his preferences narrowly failed to push Tate ahead of McKay.
• Noosa (Queensland 2006): An unexpected beneficiary of the 2001 and 2004 Beattie landslides, Labor loose cannon Cate Molloy was disendorsed in the lead-up to the September 2006 election due to her public opposition to the government’s dam-building proposals, which extended to leading protest marches and threatening to introduce a private member’s bill. Molloy promptly announced that she would run as an independent, and held off until the campaign before delivering an angrily worded letter of resignation from the Labor Party (from which she was soon to be expelled in any case for running against an endorsed candidate). Molloy finished a fraction behind Labor on the primary vote, 23.7 per cent to 23.6 per cent, overtaking them with Greens preferences. However, Liberal candidate Glen Elmes’ 38.2 per cent primary vote was easily enough to deliver him the seat, with considerable aid from vote-splitting and exhaustion (Queensland also has optional preferential voting) between Molloy and Labor.
NOTE: Do not feel under any obligation to keep this thread on topic.
John of Melbourne
Swan will say we approve of the coalitions tax policy because we advocated it in the budget reply speech in 2005.
Swan will point out that Labor is the only party that has done any real tax reform. (The GST is still not a plus for Costello).
The Future Fund is not being “Raided”, the Govt has already said it will sell the Telstra shares in the fund.
Costello will not go anywhere near greenhouse gasses. 😉
One thing different about this debate is Labor doesn’t require it – Swan and Co can set the terms, venue and refuse to go ahead otherwise – no one will care. And frankly nobody is going to be watching this except the Tragics.
Costello can attack Swan on Labor their initiatives like they tried to with Rudd, but as we have seen already when asked a question, everyone tends to answer their own version of the question.
If Costello wins the debate, no one will care; if Swan wins no one will care. The only way Swan loses is if he is shown to be incompetent – but he is an economist or at least studied at Uni I believe and, has spent many years on it – he won’t sound incompetent because he has a pretty good idea of the mechanics of it all.
I think the real risk in this is for Costello’s credibility as Treasurer and potential party leader. His character leaves him at risk of blowing it.
Said in the previous thread re:738 Tory Crimes Says: October 23rd, 2007 at 10:51 am
Isn’t Costello co-leader? If there’s any debate on offer for Costello, it should be Rudd that spanks him.
Swan should specify that he wants to debate the next treasurer… perhaps Downer?
if the ALP’s wildest dreams come true after 24/11, the road between Brisbane and Cairns ought to be renamed the Bruce-Howard Highway, a moving testment to those PM’s who lost their electorates in the heat of battle.
The road’s location in rural Qld is particularly appropriate. By duplicating random 10km-long sections of the isolated part of the road between Rockhampton and Mackay, the Bruce-Howard Highway could also serve as a potent symbol for inept and piecemeal rural/regional pork-barrelling.
Oh, and on the gay marriage thing, it’s stupid but expected. I have strong opinions on the matter and believe the government should not be dictacted to by the majority but rather decide what is the right path to take.
If the matter is something that you decide your vote on, I’d suggest you look at the record of all parties concerned. Undoubtedly the minor parties (The Geens and the Democrats) will have the most courage to deal with the issue, as they don’t need to worry about the backlash they’d receive from other prospective voters (as much).
Of the majors I’d say the ALP has the stronger record at a state-based level. Having lived in WA, the Gallop government was great to take the action it did early in their first term. An unpopular move surely, but the right thing to do. I don’t imagine there’ll be a major raft of social policy reform in the first term Rudd Government, but I know there won’t be in the 5th term Howard Government.
Remember the Senate.
to 89:
Rattus hrattus better be nowhere near a camera if the Smirk debates Swan or Rudd.
If he was, then it would make it to easy for the ALP to hit him with questions about his past statements that have bagged Howard.
I can see it now. Camera switches to Howard for reaction. ALP gets double value for each attempted hit no matter what the Smirks response is. Story the next day is all about Team Howard-Costello NOT!!
Better if Rattus takes a short vacation somewhere very private for any debate featuring the Smirk, and the day after. At this point it cant really hurt his chances.
On another topic, looks like the ALP campaign in Wentworth isn’t going that well. Maybe Turnbull will be one of the last ones standing after the rout,and can fight it out for the leadership with Wilson and Julie post election.
Thanks ShowsOn
[’Swan can also point out his tax plan is implicit approval of the governments tax plan.]
{But that would mean Costello has to stop attacking it, else he is attacking his own tax plan.}
All I ask is for Swan to say the Coalitions tax plan is tops!
[Costello should ask Swan why raid the future fund if you have a surplus from which to draw money from broadband?]
{Spending the surplus has increased inflation, which has resulted in interest rates going up five times, when the current government said they wouldn’t go up.}
Isn’t the future fund proceeds from the Surplus thus also being Surplus? In Swan says we will run Surplus’s in excess of 1% to keep interst rates low well then he has won.
[The nail in Swans cofin will be when Costello asks him how will Labor look after working families when prices go up to meet greenhouse gas targets?]
{By cutting wasteful spending that has put pressure on inflation, and thus interest rates. Interest rates have gone up five times since the last election 9 times since 2002, whcih has increased mortgage repayments by $2000 a year.}
Please nominate an ares of wasteful spending? Interest rates are lower under the Coalition then Labor! True to say that houses are more expensive but the other side of the coin is that people now have more wealth. Real wages have gone up 25% therefore decreasing the pain of mortgage rate increases what was the real wages increase under Labor?
[if the ALP’s wildest dreams come true after 24/11, the road between Brisbane and Cairns ought to be renamed the Bruce-Howard Highway, a moving testment to those PM’s who lost their electorates in the heat of battle.]
LOL! F’ing brilliant! 😀
97 John of Melbourne
1 meh – politics. If the LP haven’t yet realised that the very mention of Labour owned issues does them harm then good luck to them.
2 The mechanisms of the future fund are a free hit for anyone who knows what’s going on here – Costello won’t touch it with barge pole.
3. Easy – ‘How will you Peter?’
Costello’s problem is that the electorate is realising that no-one owns the world economy. He’s not the gatekeeper of anything secret any more.
That whole “low interest rates” furphy might come under some scrutiny. As my monicker suggests I know a little about this area and, last I checked, AUstralia had the second HIGHEST interst rates in the OECD and we’re catching up on the kiwis quick smart.
I’ll do some digging and get back to you.
I get a higher % return from my Bendigo account than the friggin future fund does. As economic management, its a sick joke. And sorry, punters just dont care about fed public servants super – which is affordable from general revenue anyway.
These “funds” set up by the government to are complete rubbish. Raid em. Get a better economic return from putting the money into infrastrcture anyway. Costello is a economic dunce.
Another couple of examples sitting members losing party endorsement and running as independents.
McMillan 1972. This was mentioned briefly in one of the threads last week. Sitting Lib lost endorsement and ran as an independent and directing his preferences to Hewson, the Country Party candidate. Hewson won the seat with only 16.7% of primary vote.
Willoughby 1978 (NSW state election). Sitting Liberal Laurie McGinty lost preselection and ran as an independent. The ALP’s Eddie Britt won on McGinty’s preferences.
Lefty E is not the future fund just a big Superannuation account and if so by extension then is our personal Supper rubish as well? Was this then bad policy by Hawke/Keating?
Rates Analyst I have had a look at the formula’s on Wiki that pertain to Interst rates and if a Country like Australia wants to keep interest rates low all it need to is either run a large Surplus or increase its population presuambly by taking in many immigrants?
[Lefty E is not the future fund just a big Superannuation account and if so by extension then is our personal Supper rubish as well? Was this then bad policy by Hawke/Keating?]
It’s a joke. We need to use the billions in the future fund to build clean power infrastructure, and to build new water infrasctructure.
If we don’t have clean water and clean power in the future then our economy is completely screwed.
Why didn’t the Federal government spend the last decade building desalination plants in every state? They had the money, but they just pissed it up against a wall each election campaign.
Yesterday Howard was in Adelaide promising $30 million to a desalination plant that is probably going to cost $750 million. Is he for real?
if a Country like Australia wants to keep interest rates low all it need to is either run a large Surplus or increase its population presuambly by taking in many immigrants
So that’s how they;ve been doing it.
John, john, john (of Melbourne). You don’t really understand that much about the economy do you.
Back in ’83 Howard had interest rate at 22.4% but because there was a regulated financial sector the banks couldn’t charge more than 13%, therefore artificially sheilding the public.
25% real wage increase isn’t much consulation when the average wage to the average house price is 10x. During labors time it sat around 5x and 6x.
May I also add that petrol/food/childcare charges have doubled at least since then ie risen 100%
Why don’t people like how Costello performs at question time? I work for Hansard and so am in there pretty much every sitting day and I always want Costello to be on his feet because he is so much fun. He is a fantastic performer in the House. While I am a Labor voter, I am a big Costello fan. Well, I was a big Costello fan until he gutlessly wimped out on challenging. But he is a great speaker.
I very much doubt that Ch 9 would televise a debate between Costello and Swan; it just wouldn’t make good ratings for them. Only the ABC would cover such a debate, so only us poll tragics would watch. Unless Swan really screwed up, low-involvement voters simply won’t take any interest.
[Why don’t people like how Costello performs at question time?]
Nobody watches parliament. How he ‘debates’ in parliament would not win the hearts and minds of swinging voters.
D.G:
1) I presume some people find Costello entertaining in the same way some people found Keating entertaining. The flip-side is also true.
2) You may want to get William to delete the second sentence of your post.
ShowsOn that didn’t address my question.
However on your points. Water: as former Premier Peter Beatie said back as late as 2003 there was no need to worry about water.
As for power the market will sort that one out. We need to move to a hydrogen based economy (by product water) but the problem there is how do you store it insuffcient quantities. Advances in society come with advance in energy
re 113.
I have much more authorative sources than Wiki. Me, for example. (B Com Hons (First Class), B Ec)
Whilst running a large surplus would tend to reduce interest rates, the real problem in Australia is that the economy is currently hitting capacity restraints. This means that any growth is only in prices, not volumes.
Indeed, a Government surplus does hold down interest rates by REDUCING GDP. That’s right. “Go for Growth” – but in the attack-dog sense of the phrase. Running a surplus deliberately reduces growth by reducing the amount of Government spending.
What the country needs to do is invest the surplus in projects that INCREASE the capacity restraints – that way they’re not inflationary. Say, a realistic investment in education so that the skills shortage doesn’t drive up prices. If you spend the surplus creating more capacity in the economy you get low inflation AND more growth.
I do not know which wiki site you refer to, but please note that the increase in population by migration would seem to be a tacit acceptance that the problem is the constraints on the economy. While the migration issue seems to be tackling a simple labour shortage constraint, we have a more complicated skilled labour shortage. But the principle is the same. We need to import more skilled people en masse – or perhaps we could just invest in educatino properly and train our own.
When you have muliple degrees in the area please feel free to respond.
Abbott admits the government is screwed:
“This poll is radically at odds with the experience we have had in the streets as government members over the last couple of weeks,” Mr Abbott said on ABC radio.
“It would be an unusual Australian electorate that would take a big risk with its future on polling day.”
Private Liberal party polling showed the Government in a _somewhat_ better position, he said.
So is that private polling 54 / 46? 😛
If the Libs internal polling was so good wouldn’t they keep it to themselves so as not to give Labor any advanced warning?
[If the Libs internal polling was so good wouldn’t they keep it to themselves so as not to give Labor any advanced warning?]
Who knows how Abbott is thinking these days.
Malcolm Turnball consorting with the Exclusive Brethren:
http://au.news.yahoo.com/071023/2/14qp7.html
Just listening to The World Today! Andrew Robb: pathetic! Any chance Labor could pick up Goldstein?
Lose the Election Please,
What is the problem with my second sentence? (I am not sure of the rules here).
David Gould @ 117
When at the dispatch box, the man presents as a maniacal, red-faced, big-barking-mouthed, floppy-chinned, smirking, smug, sneering, bully-boy adolescent ranter.
So, yeah, I agree, lots of fun; and a big turn on for women I’d imagine.
p.s. that’s off the record of course.
[Just listening to The World Today! Andrew Robb: pathetic! Any chance Labor could pick up Goldstein?]
If Labor gets today’s Newspoll figures on election day, Goldstein is in the bag.
I don’t get the presumption (not here, but everywhere else on the web) that Costello would wipe the floor with Swan. This is the kind of poisoned thinking that made so many of us idolise Keating, not realising that what we true believers saw as high theatre, everyone else saw as sneering arrogance.
Costello is, after all, the K-mart Keating. He can only do worse than his secret idol. Swan, on the other hand, is actually an unflappable guy, and in some ways is a better debater than Rudd.
I agree with some of the sentiments here, I think Costello has set himself up for a fall.
Centaur_007 I don’t know anything about Howards years as treasurer. I do know that financial sector was regulated but I am sure the government of the day used what ever levers it had at its disposal to give it the outcome it hoped for. Wasn’t the objective back then to look after the Aussie dollar?
House prices are contolled by the market as to petrol/food/childcare and maybe by the Visy board, lol. I’m sure all the promised enquiries will lower the prices.
LETP & Showson – I think Abbott’s cpomment was that their internals were better than LAST week’s polls. In other words, they’re in the lead.
Maybe they would keep them to themselves, but the thing is their big hitters are spending a lot of time porking their own seats and safe lib seats, not so much ALP held marginals or even their own marginals.
On the Newspoll, does the sample of 1,700 (bigger than normal) have any effect onthe mergin of error?
[Centaur_007 I don’t know anything about Howards years as treasurer.]
He sat on his hands and did bugger all. There isn’t much to know.
Lebovic again making a thorough arsehole of himself on radio. Sol, we all know you’re a Liberal supporter. He just got rubbished again by John Stirton.
re Newspoll, the margin of error becomes 2.5 per cent, rather than 3 per cent.
Jeff Bate, Dame Zara Holt’s 2nd husband, was the long standing Liberal member for Macarthur. He lost pre-selection to Max Dunbier, the local MLA in 1972. At the election leakage from Bate’s preferances (he had managed a respectable 18%), resulted in the election of John Kerin.
Just now watching the morning editon of Agenda on sky (it is replayed all day on Sky news election channel) and seeing Prince Hal of Wentworth try to explain why in the general form letter mail out to electors from all liberial members the only member’s letter not to refer to the Howard/Costello team was the fellow running against Maxine Mckew No mention of Costello in that one.
122
Rates Analyst Says:
October 23rd, 2007 at 12:16 pm :
What you said is exactly what Maxine said on the Bennelong forum on SBS.
I have confidence that Swan knows and understands all this stuff but Costello probably will only have it through coaching.
I don’t see any positives in this for Costello. It is a risk for him because of his character – the smirk, bombastic behavior, menacing manner when under pressure from the questioners and underlying ignorance on economics. Unless they have some big policy release or want to talk up the Econtech report nonsense then they are hoping for one big hug gaffe from Swan.
Andrew E @ #52 says:
Tony Windsor has never been an endorsed Nationals candidate.
In 1991, when Noel Park retired as member for Tamworth, Tony Windsor sought National Party preselection. The preselection was won by David Briggs, a hospital administrator who had only lived in the electorate for a few months.
Tony Windsor ran as an independent and won the seat quite comfortably. He has comfortably won every election he has contested since 1991.
Does anyone know Antony Green’s email address?
I am hoping that on election day the ABC keeps a page with updates of the 2pp vote broken down by each state and territory, and from the state-by-state swings (i.e. current 2pp vote, minus the 2pp vote at the 2004 election).
This “swing per state” data could then be dynamically placed into the state-by-state election calculator to give a running estimation of the election result.
It would be a bit more accurate than using the national swing, because it would take into account difference swings between the states and territories.
It would be great to have a single page that can be refreshed to predict the currently outcome.
Kina at 138
Good! It shows that someone who knows what they’re talking about is helping the ALP.
Mr Rudd made some of these points in the debate too – but they were quick so unless you already knew the point he was making you wouldn’t have seen it.
Thanks for the tip.
The Swan v Costello debate is the “hail mary” pass from the Liberals this election.
If Costello thumps Swan (or Swan self-destructs), the Liberals can go around showing how bad Labor will be at managing the economy.
If it’s a close win for Costello or a draw, the status quo remains – which would be a disaster for the Liberals.
If Swan wins (by any margin), the Liberals’ greatest asset at the moment – economic management – becomes instantly neutralised and ensures that the Coalition goes down in flames.
As such, it’s a high risk, but potentially high reward strategy for the Coalition – but it’s a lower risk, but even higher reward for Labor.
[I have confidence that Swan knows and understands all this stuff but Costello probably will only have it through coaching.]
It is not that he doesn’t understand, it is just that he has done very little to break capacity constraints over the last decade. Costello and Howard have prefered to piss money up against a wall to win elections, rather than actually helping to expand the economy.
Thanks Rate Analyst informative.
I’ll respond I only have a simple Engineering degree!
So we have a lack of skilled people. If we do educate our own to fill the skilled labor jobs who will do the other jobs?
Ophuph Hucksake: The Bruce Highway isn’t named after Stanley Bruce, it’s named after Henry Bruce, a former QLD ALP MP and Minister of Works (for the seat of Leichhardt) when it was started.
Swan only needs to come over as a dour cautious economist – it is the Treasurers job after all.
And Swann only need review Bob Hawke’s recent explanation of the cause of our ecnomic strength.
Costello has been put up to it as a desperate attempt to find a fault or wedge somewhere.
what next?
Gillard – Hockey?
Roxon – Abbott?
Here comes the anti-union campaign rebuttal:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22633682-5013871,00.html
Kina,
I remember hearing Abbott last week on the 7:30 Report issuing a challenge to take Roxon on in a debate. It wasn’t given much attention, though.
Swan versus Costello.
Swan is boring.
Costello is annoying.
It’ll be a draw.
Gillard would thrash Hockey, and Roxon would get a big profile boost if she debated Abbott.