• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports that Liberal polling conducted last month has the Prime Minister “staring at defeat in his marginal northern Sydney seat of Bennelong”, with two-party support for Labor’s Maxine McKew said to be in “the low 50s”.
• Ewin Hannan and Rick Wallace of The Australian talk of Labor hopes of winning five seats in Victoria, where hostility to WorkChoices is said to be driven by the state’s “egalitarian nature, strong unions and left-wing political roots”. The five seats are Deakin, La Trobe, Corangamite, McMillan and McEwen.
• Labor yesterday made an announcement on Queensland roads funding that focused on Brisbane, committing $500 million to the Northern Link tunnel joining the Western Freeway at Toowong in Ryan to a bypass at Kelvin Grove in Brisbane, and $70 million to connecting the Gateway Motorway to the Pacific Motorway in Bonner and Moreton. The former commitment has won applause from Brisbane’s Liberal lord mayor, Campbell Newman.
• Roads are also looming as a key battleground elsewhere: Ben Packham of the Herald-Sun reports that Labor will “today unveil a $600 million plan to upgrade the Western Highway in the first election pledge aimed squarely at Victoria”. The promise does not seem too finely targeted as far as marginal seats are concerned, although a big ticket upgrade between Melton and Bacchus Marsh is not far north of Corangamite.
• Local news site the Geographe Gazette reports that “former Liberal candidate for the state seat of Collie-Wellington, Craig Carbone, has informed Nola Marino that she is within ‘inches’ of being dropped as the candidate for Forrest”. There has been much talk that Marino might be threatened by independent candidate Noel Brunning, much of it coming from disgruntled Liberals.
• Rogue candidate corner. In Leichhardt, Ian Crossland of the Nationals has been rapped on the knuckles by party leader Mark Vaile for saying the Cape York Peninsula seat was “not an electorate for a woman”, referring to Liberal candidate Charlie McKillop. In Mallee, Labor’s perennial candidate John Zigouras has told local paper the Wimmera Mail-Times that the area is “redneck country surrounded by neo-Nazis”. In Corio, Liberal candidate Angelo Kakouros has told the Geelong Advertiser that “union bosses dictate similar to the way Hitler did during the world war about how we should live our life” (though he claims he was misquoted).
• Speaking of Leichhardt, a Cairns Post poll of 310 respondents from September 22 had previously escaped my attention. It had Labor candidate Jim Turnour on 44 per cent of the primary vote, with Charlie McKillop on 37 per cent and Ian Crossland on 5 per cent. With the Greens on 10 per cent, this would suggest a comfortable win for Labor.
• Bob Brown has told the National Press Club the Greens will run fewer open tickets at this election than in 2004, meaning more preference recommendations to Labor.
• The always unmissable George Megalogenis unpacks the electoral significance of the oft-mentioned “working families” in The Australian.
tabitha is prolly a Young Liberal troll. The two-line ditties are the limit of their cognitive ability to attack the ALP. If she’s not, then she’s (he’s?) likely a uni student trying to take the piss out of Liberal trolls. Whilst this may be amusing the first time around, it is still equally annoying after awhile.
Labor is disguised socialism
Liberal is for freedom.
The women of Australia choose freedom
I am a robot.
tabitha is for slogans.
What’s the interest rate tabitha?
Is it alive? *pokes tabitha with a stick*
That was a 50c coin. 3 lines 😉
To Burgey at 426:
My deepest thanks for posting Keating’s Redfern speech. What a great tragedy that Australian politics no longer has the capacity for such profound and brave comment. It just goes to show the enormous damage that Howard has done to our once great country. It appears that Howard has instilled such great fear and greed into the community as a whole that no politicitian with true foresight can make such visionary declarations without fear or being taken apart by biased commentators with specific agendas. I have always known that the last 10 years have been a tremendous blight on Australia’s history but never so much as now, watching how far we, as a nation, have fallen.
Bill Wellar @442
you are absolutely correct. The New Labor Party is an evolving beast. Rudd is NOT pretending about having conservative views. He is the real deal.
The beauty of his rise is that it will see the total destruction of John Howards Coalition(and just in time for Australia’s sake). Another 3 years of his rule would have seen irrepairable and entrenched changes to this country.
The sad part is that New Labor will disappoint as many Laborites as Howards coalition disappointed Liberals.
However the future disaffected Laborites do have a place to go. The Greens. This will ensure the Greens will be a significant future 3rd Party and potential junior partner.
I see the Labor Party as the future owner of the vast middle ground with the Coalition of Conservatives holding the Far Right and the Greens(who will continue to evolve and mainstream) holding the Left.
say a split of
Labor : 50%
Conservative Right : 25%
Left : 25%
for example.
Translated tabitha:
Smgglofdnurthnan, jwedsiplitofmus.
You know it makes sense.
Tabitha (417)
“Unions feed off working people
Liberal gives money back to working people’
Keep it coming Tabitha. We’ve needed a comedian on this site for a long time.
Keep it coming. We’ve needed
I quite like Tabitha’s approach to this blog.
She rocks up, spouts some cr*p and then buggers off whilst we spend an hour calling her a troll.
We really should just go back to the real issues – like what are people’s predictions for tomorrow’s ACN?
Marktwain, I don’t think the posters to this blog are uniformly anti meedja. If you’ve been following the debates over time, many will nominate journos they think do a good job of reporting. Would you believe, some of them are my friends?
snakeboy @ 450
i sincerely hope you are correct.
Thanks to Bolshevik Bill and Turramurra Ted. I always know we are on the right track when we are attacked by both Tories and Marxists.
To be perfectly honest, as a Labor voter who could be considered one of the soft “l” liberals that have switched from Howard since 2001, I would hope that Rudd (if he wins) eventually brings a “Blairite” revolution to the ALP – it needs a good shake-up – particularly the fact that unions get 50% of the votes in preselections.
It would make Labor the natural party of the wealthy but who have a social conscience.
Damn!!! Nothing on ACN on ABC News. Judging by the Crikey rumour, and the Libs not releasing their own internals to the media, and also their lack of advertising of the tax cut, the tax cut has tanked. Thus, it looks like 57-43. Possum has all the details.
Swing Lowe,
The ALP needs a good heartbreaking loss before it will face facts and attack the Labcest within. Gavin O’Connor nailed it on the telly tonight. You too should have the courage of your convictions.
No, ESJ. If anyone’s going to reform the ALP, it will be Rudd – he just needs to get some proper authority under his belt, which he inevitably will get from a big election win. That way, he can dismiss any threats from the Left and bring the ALP into (dare I say it?) the 21st century.
I suspect that, during Sunday’s televised debate, Rudd will challenge Howard to a further 2 debates. It will be interesting to see Howard’s reaction on live tv.
Nope. Look at Bob Carr he knew it was rotten to the core – and did nothing in 10 years. Ditto Beattie and Bracks.
It needs a loss followed by a “crisis” leader.
What is the format of the debate? I notice people like Speers, Uhulman? are part of the panel. I wonder if Johny will get some pre-coaching?
[We really should just go back to the real issues – like what are people’s predictions for tomorrow’s ACN?]
“From today’s Crikey
Tips & Rumours
Overheard at Fairfax. A couple of the political reporters talking about the ACNielsen Poll that will be published tomorrow on the election. They were saying that Rudd would be very happy with the outcome, and the Labor primary vote has gone up!”
Rudd agrees to particpate in debate.
Saves all Australians from Howard’s threatened Castro like speech.
What a guy!
Women will swoon. Men will doff their cap.
Bob Carr couldn’t have done it – he was only a state leader, no matter his presence. The sort of thing that we’re talking about needs to be done on a national level (like Blair in 1994).
It can be done in both defeat and victory – the problem is finding the right person to do it. For me, Rudd is that person – no major union background nor is he beholden to any particular faction. The only problem is that he got this job (and still has his job) because of his deal with the Left. A landslide victory (heck, any victory) will probably give him authority to comprehensively reform the party. My hope is, like how Hawke/Keating moved the ALP from its Keynesian focus in the 1960s and 70s, Rudd will move Labor into the 21st century. It’s inevitable, anyway…
ESJ
keep up the brave face .
Rudd is kryptonite to your precious Far Right Conservatives. Left leaners like me mightn’t like him but i at least appreciate him for the destruction he is going to wreck on your side of politics
This thread is much more entertaining than the one I was looking at last night.
For starters there are more right-wing trolls posting here today than yesterday: namely old hands such as ESJ and Glen, who have been joined by Tabitha, RGee and DIManson.
Out of the latter group, Tabitha is the natural comedian … just look at her posting @ 452. Where does she come up with such outrageous utterances? It’s like reading Orwell’s “1984” all over again! Maybe Glen feeds those words to her! 😉
Still no sign of Nostradamus, Cerdic Conan and Steven Kaye though. Perhaps they’re out campaigning, dressed up in chicken suits, for the Coalition victory that Shanahan and Akerman keep predicting daily at the Government Gazette.
Sorry EStJ, but i think its the LNP who need the “heartbreaking loss”.
If they win this time round, then it will cement the right wing, Rattus loving nut jobs in control of the party. Wouldn’t the Exclusive Bretheren love that!
If they have a narrow loss, then those same hard right conservatives will be able to make some plausible excuses and probably hang on to influence, thus making the LNP unelectable for the foreseeable future.
If they take a real caning though, there will be a good clean out of those with a born to rule mentality, and the real Liberals will be able to re-assert control, and rescue their party from the uber right. Give them 2 terms in opposition and they are a force again.
Better for our Democracy if that happens.
Maybe Tabitha is a FemBot built in the image of the great Janet. Hows that for a mental image to take with you through the night!!
Now I’m union, but sometimes, like all organisations they can do some dumb things. For instance, the current nurses debacle in Vic. is a case in point. One of the things the ANF have got dug in about is nurse/patient ratios. If you work as a manager in health, as I do, one of the things it would be useful to do is to shift human resources from areas of low demand to areas of high demand. There needs to be some bottom line to the ratio, but to insist on the one rigid ratio across all areas of acute, rehabilitation and chronic care, for example, is just daft.
The nurses dispute here is also a good example of the many nasty effects of the wretched Workchoices legislation. After the election, there will much to discuss, though, perhaps we won’t tax William quite as much.
Agreed, Harry at #462. Nothing is uniform, particularly poll swings.
Btw, before I go, let me say that I agree with imacca @ 477 re the Liberal party.
They are in real danger of drifting to the extreme (unelectable) right, particularly here in NSW. The types of people the Liberal party needs right now (whether they win or lose this election) are people like Malcolm Turnbull, NOT people like Sophie Mirrabella and Alex Hawke. Perhaps the only thing that can reverse this trend is a Labor landslide (or two) – it depends on how long the Libs take to figuring it out…
I am positive that Shanahan would not like to be mentioned in the sentence as Akerman ( :0 ), please, show him some respect. 🙂
Not “how desperately the ALP needs reform” again. How many times is this stuff going to be wheeled out?
Quiz: Which party is in opposition in every state and territory, hopelessly so in most of them? Which party has lost more than 20 state elections in a row? Which party has been miles behind in the federal polls all year? Which party is nearly bankrupt in most states? Which party is being whiteanted by religious sects? Which party preselected an anti-Semite crazy who had to be deselected? Which party preselected a branchstacker who fabricated his CV who had to be deselected? Which party brawled for months over preselections because of endemic branchstaking and religious sect infestations? Which party couldn’t find candidates for a dozen federal seats until the last minute?
Clue: It’s not Labor.
Swing Lowe,
They ain’t in danger of drifting, they have broken the moorings and are drifting out through the Heads.
When you have core Liberal seats like Goldstein, Kooyong, Casey, North Sydney, Wentworth, Waringah and Higgins in play there has to be a bigger reason than Rudd’s cute demeanour and his sparkling personality.
ACNielsen was sometimes previewed on the Sky News election program that ran during the 2004 campaign, so it might be worth keeping an eye on their Agenda program at 9.30 this evening.
Prediction for ACN 57 possibly 58 Labor TPP
Sturton is on 7:30 Report talking with Sol Lebovic now
Liked Adams comment on “religious sect infestations”.
Rudd has already come out hard against the EB, so he is obviously not particularly worried about the mainstream religious groups being put offside by an attack on the fringe right EB.
Anyone think that the various revelations on the LNP connection to the EB will be a factor further into the campaign?? Or would it be to divisive / negative??
Surely there are people out there doing some digging to see if the EB are campaigning for the Libs again?
Greensborough Growler,
Is Warringah (Mad Monk MP) really in play?
# 480 – Swing…if Rudd wins, the clean out on the LNP benches will be profound. No matter how big or small his win. The forces who are raedy to seize the vacuum are all from the right wing of the party.
In the event of an ALP win, it will take the Libs at least eight years to shake out the unelectable uglies.
I bloody well hope so!
# 487 – imacca, I think the Bretheren imbroglio will simply reinforce exitsting dispositions.
466,
There wasn’t anything on the 7:30 report either. Kerry interviewed two pollsters of differing opinions and one was the ACN guy. I thought he might spill the beans but he didn’t. He was optimistic though for the polls generally holding for Labor though so perhaps you might be able to read into what he didn’t say and his body language 🙂
Stirton’s face on the 7.30 Report was priceless. He was just itching to reveal that the ALP’s vote has solidified.
Like a cat with a rodent in its mouth.
Hah, just saw Sol and John interviewed on 7.30. I reckon from John’s resposes the tumour is true about the increased primary to Labor, and interestingly, he disagreed with Sol that if the polls over the next 2-3 weeks held up, then the Coalition are cactus.
Stirton’s manner suggests the Nielsen looks no better for Rodent.
tumor?
Drat, sloppy typing, responses and rumour. Don’t ask me about the Freudian slip, it would only depress you and add nothing to the debate.
Harry ‘Snapper’ Organs,
I’m with the ANF on nurse-patient ratios. I say this because I was a teacher and I saw the Great God Flexibility destroy teaching conditions in our schools, first under the Liberals and then under the last EBA with the current government.
As the timetabler at Hampton Park Secondary College until the end of 2004, I was able to organise that school with a maximum teaching load of just under 18 hours a week (including covering the classes of absent colleagues), less than one per cent of classes over 25 students (and then only marginally) and the capacity for decent time allowances (deductions from teaching for demanding leadership positions). These were the best conditions in the state, the ideal towards which other teachers should have aspired and worked in their own schools.
However, as a direct result of the 2004 Enterprise Bargaining Agreement, which more than three quarters of the teachers in the state foolishly endorsed, the teachers at Hampton Park, who intelligently voted against the proposed EBA, were forced to accept higher teaching loads, longer periods, inadequate time allowances and the abolition of their management advisory committee.
The pre-1992 maximum secondary teaching load of 18 hours a week is now 20 hours, the pre-1992 time allowance pool of at least of 90 minutes per teacher is now zero and the pre-1992 standard of ongoing employment has become a raffle with one in six teachers on short-term contracts.
All of this is due to the worship of the Great God Flexibility. I could say a lot more, but I will restrain myself rather than take this thread down a side-road.
PS Hey Gav O’Connor: how ’bout a nice cup of shut the f*ck up, mate? Just brewed a fresh one.
Someone offer that loser an Ambassadorship or something. Like its some big surprise that grubby factional deals are involed in major party preselection. Probably how that loser got in in the first place.
Ask Michael “Rack em and Stack em” Johnson from the LIbs in QLD. Same all over.
“The tumour of insolence, or petulance of contempt” (Dr Johnson). Tumor is the American spelling. I’m sure William has banned American spellings here.