D-day minus 37

Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports that Liberal polling conducted last month has the Prime Minister “staring at defeat in his marginal northern Sydney seat of Bennelong”, with two-party support for Labor’s Maxine McKew said to be in “the low 50s”.

Ewin Hannan and Rick Wallace of The Australian talk of Labor hopes of winning five seats in Victoria, where hostility to WorkChoices is said to be driven by the state’s “egalitarian nature, strong unions and left-wing political roots”. The five seats are Deakin, La Trobe, Corangamite, McMillan and McEwen.

• Labor yesterday made an announcement on Queensland roads funding that focused on Brisbane, committing $500 million to the Northern Link tunnel joining the Western Freeway at Toowong in Ryan to a bypass at Kelvin Grove in Brisbane, and $70 million to connecting the Gateway Motorway to the Pacific Motorway in Bonner and Moreton. The former commitment has won applause from Brisbane’s Liberal lord mayor, Campbell Newman.

• Roads are also looming as a key battleground elsewhere: Ben Packham of the Herald-Sun reports that Labor will “today unveil a $600 million plan to upgrade the Western Highway in the first election pledge aimed squarely at Victoria”. The promise does not seem too finely targeted as far as marginal seats are concerned, although a big ticket upgrade between Melton and Bacchus Marsh is not far north of Corangamite.

• Local news site the Geographe Gazette reports that “former Liberal candidate for the state seat of Collie-Wellington, Craig Carbone, has informed Nola Marino that she is within ‘inches’ of being dropped as the candidate for Forrest”. There has been much talk that Marino might be threatened by independent candidate Noel Brunning, much of it coming from disgruntled Liberals.

• Rogue candidate corner. In Leichhardt, Ian Crossland of the Nationals has been rapped on the knuckles by party leader Mark Vaile for saying the Cape York Peninsula seat was “not an electorate for a woman”, referring to Liberal candidate Charlie McKillop. In Mallee, Labor’s perennial candidate John Zigouras has told local paper the Wimmera Mail-Times that the area is “redneck country surrounded by neo-Nazis”. In Corio, Liberal candidate Angelo Kakouros has told the Geelong Advertiser that “union bosses dictate similar to the way Hitler did during the world war about how we should live our life” (though he claims he was misquoted).

• Speaking of Leichhardt, a Cairns Post poll of 310 respondents from September 22 had previously escaped my attention. It had Labor candidate Jim Turnour on 44 per cent of the primary vote, with Charlie McKillop on 37 per cent and Ian Crossland on 5 per cent. With the Greens on 10 per cent, this would suggest a comfortable win for Labor.

• Bob Brown has told the National Press Club the Greens will run fewer open tickets at this election than in 2004, meaning more preference recommendations to Labor.

• The always unmissable George Megalogenis unpacks the electoral significance of the oft-mentioned “working families” in The Australian.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

664 comments on “D-day minus 37”

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  1. I propose a new definition of troll – the ALP troll

    The ALP troll is a partisan troll that looks into the mirror and sees a troll of great charm, wit and beauty. The beauty troll believes its opinions are sensible, pragmatic and correct opinions.

    The ALP troll sees other people and thinks they are not as beautiful as it, and it is outraged that other people can express opinions which differ from its sensible, pragmatic and correct opinions. Because the ALP troll thinks this way it cannot comprehend difference of opinion and screams “troll” at the other people. Generally the ALP troll is shunned by non ALP people who see it as very limited, unsociable and myopic.

  2. Adam, I can’t see how you can deny the importance to Labor – and even greater importance to the union movement – to end the 50% block vote, as well as what are now symbolic absurdities such as ‘join labor = join a union’.

    The ALP machine milks union donations/affiliation fees, then produces a ‘WorkChoices Lite’ IR policy. Reminds me of the Afro-American leader who said his community had to realise they had permanent interests, not permanent friends (ie don’t be wedded 100% to the Democratic Party).

    The quid pro quo for this money is not real policy influence on Industrial and social wage issues, the unions real raison d’etre. Rather it’s the abiliity for a limited few apparatchiks to wheel-deal and sometimes symbiotically control key factions, and ultimately for an even fewer to conveyor belt into parliament.

    It’s left Labor wide open to the govt’s present attack.

    Unions should donate as and when their membership permits (ie ballots on political funds). They should have a formalised consultative role within Labor.

    I like to think Rudd will formally move on this, rather than just Blairising the party through de facto presidential whim, but keeping the deals and the guaranteed funds.

  3. [It’s left Labor wide open to the govt’s present attack.]

    I just don’t think people care. There are all those state and territory Labor governments that aren’t any more or less influenced by unions as Federal Labor.

    It just doesn’t seem to change votes. It seems to be a tactic to shore up the Liberal base.

  4. Gasp, the Mad Monk once used the services of a UNION !!!

    [In a new twist in the debate over Federal Labor’s union ties, Liberal frontbencher Tony Abbott has described his background in the union movement.

    Mr Abbott has come out saying he used the support of a union when he was a journalist.

    “I was a union member for a while when I was a journalist, I was a member of the Australian Journalists’ Association,” he said.

    “In fact I moved a resolution to go on strike one day after consolidated press management sacked the whole photographic department.”]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/18/2063522.htm?section=justin

  5. Yeah, funny guy that Gavin O’Connor… not enough women, eh? Mate?! … and ummm, what gender are you Gav, me ol’ sunshine?

  6. Not long ago the Business Union’s advert showed a list where Australia was and, how Australia would drop if evil Labor took over the world.

    Were not 6 out of the 8 top countries for standard of living on their list highly unionised ones? I did a bit of googling a while ago looking up the union membership rates – all quite high. Seems unions are good for the country.

  7. Adam whilst i agree with you in regards to your comments you must acknowledge that Labor does not need this at this present moment of the campaign.
    Don’t agree with Gavans’ actions but the process was a sham and Richard Marles should not have been the candidate in the first place.
    Just curious how Gavan O’Connor was preselected for the seat in the first place.. another rotten deal.. if so than he is pathetic hypocrite…
    In addition currently the party in Victoria is going through some unwelcome union actions ( Nurses and Firefighters) and some inept handling of such by the Victorian Government- disruptions which the party does not need… and should have resolved before the campaign or must sort out hastily….

    I will say it again like last night Labor needs a positive ad in regards to the unions for example an ad showing Combet helping Asbestos victims and Shorten and the Beaconsfield miners, with perhaps a line,
    Mr Howard Unions helping Australians, so Mr Howard are these people the people we don’t want in parliament… an ad with a postive spin…

  8. See, Edward… I’ve got a question for you, for Glen and indeed for Tabitha.

    There are not many advocates of the right wing perspective on this site… so why is it that when you, Glen or Tabitha are online at roughly the same time… that you never, ever, talk to each other? You don’t band together, engage in witty little conversations _between_ yourselves belittling us crazy lefties… nope, you ignore each other!

    Why is this? You’ve got nothing to say to each other? or is it too difficult to manage a conversation between yourself?

  9. It’s a bit difficult to respond when I’m being attacked from left and right simultaneously with mutually contradictory arguments. Now, is Labor a front for the evil unions, or is Labor selling out the workers? It can’t be both. Why don’t you guys go off into a corner and come up with an agreed line of attack, hmm? Then I’ll try at answer.

  10. 509
    ShowsOn Says:
    October 18th, 2007 at 8:05 pm
    Ahahahahhahaha the government isn’t anti-union.

    Howard has officially lost it.

    Mr Howard said good things about unions today and said his problem was with union domination of Labor or some such thing. I think he did his union campaign some harm there. If unions are not bad and in fact valuable – then how can their bosses be bad? Hockey’s big mouth saves the day.

    This has gone well for Labor. The anti-negative union ad becomes an issue, Hockey kills off unions, everybody complains, Abbott brags about being a member of a union and calling for a strike, Hockey on defensive and then Howard says unions have a place in society.

    I think that takes a lot of sting out the union scare ads. Keep it up Rudd – god tactics. AND yes some positive union ads now would be perfect.

  11. Adam,

    You need to buy yourself an all singing, non fattening, ergonomically acceptable paradigm changing machine.

    Mine swats bulldust wherever it comes from.

  12. See, they got this tag-team thing going on – and I think is due soley to the difficulty of keeping the ‘characters’ separate… but they never talk to each other!

  13. Hot off the presses 😉 ……

    “Sky News TV Debate – Mike takes on Joe on pay TV

    At 4:15pm tomorrow afternoon, Friday 19th find some way to tune in to Sky News to see Mike take on Joe Hockey. See our great candidate take on the current member for North Sydney. If you have any questions about this televised debate please contact the campaign office on 9966 5999 or by email on mike.bailey@alp.org.au

  14. “I will say it again like last night Labor needs a positive ad in regards to the unions…”

    I agree. The only thing that might hold them back is the near certainty that in doing so, Howard will use the ads to say that Rudd is so compromised by union influence that he is now out there trying to defend them.

    BUT… on the upside, this may simply make Howard look even more shrill and desperate, while at the same time helping to neutralise the constant demonising of unions. The best bet is for the ACTU to put up some advertisements that explain to people all the positive things that unions do and ads that generally put a human face on unions. The government has been allowed to get away with demonising unions for too long – if you only listen to their rhetoric, you would be forgiven for believing that unions are the biggest threat facing the world today. It’s sheer nonsense.

  15. Sorry, Adam, have to slip back and forward between the American and English conventions in my work. Apologies to posterity.
    Chris Curtis, agree there are dangers in ratio negotiations, however, one of the things we have to do in health, is respond to peak demand and plan for potential massive crises. You will have noted the recent equine flu incursion. Some believe that it’s inevitable that, sooner or later, we will have something similar hit the human population. SARS came close but didn’t actually have a major impact within Australia. One of the predicted effects of climate change is that disease vectors will move, probably both predictably and unpredictably. The bottom line is we have too few skilled clinicians, whether doctors, nurses or people like me to do the work. There needs to be a huge injection of funds and effort into training skilled clinicians of all sorts to meet existing needs, let alone respond effectively to a disaster. In my view, if the Emergency Department is over run and everyone in orthopaedic recovery is stable, is it asking so much that someone goes to the ED to help out. Isn’t that going to mean better patient care?

  16. I was just watching the 7.30 Report and I think ACNeilsen, the most accurate poll of them all, will be reporting tomorrow with Rudd holding his clear lead. YO BYO TEE

  17. Sky news: “Kevin Rudd’s chances of becoming Prime Minister have suffered a blow, with dumped Labor MP Gavan O’Connor announcing he will run as an independent in a key seat.

    Because Gavan O’Connor lost pre-selection to a senior union official, his defection bolsters government claims of increasing trade union influence on the Labor Party. ”

    Good to see O’connor was there to do good for the Labor party, committed to the cause. Turns spitefull and shoots the hand that has kept him comfortably looked after for decades.

  18. I am not anti-union but against the overall preselection process and stacking rampant within a party which is controlled by a handful of factional heavies.. The unions have a role to play; and i suppose in Victoria at present the Nurses who tend to be rather liberal oriented and demanding a bit much in pay rises… but the party should have at least tried to resolve this dispute before it got to this stage.. Bob Cameron and Mr Andrews (Health Minister) seem rather lacklustre in their efforts…Yep i’m critical of two leftist ministers.
    But contrary to this the unions though perhaps are also to blame and should perhaps have held their strike actions off until after the election… but like 2004 they seem to be against the party at a crucial time- pathetic…

  19. 513
    Adam Says:
    October 18th, 2007 at 8:11 pm

    Why don’t you guys go off into a corner and come up with an agreed line of attack, hmm? Then I’ll try at answer.

    But that would be no fun

  20. #
    386
    imacca Says:
    October 18th, 2007 at 5:20 pm

    . . .

    Another thing. If it does happen, and there are 200 supporters from each side, whats the odds of it turning into something like the Taiwanese Parliament?? Argue for a while and then biffo!

    I found the mental image of this one hilarious. We aren’t allowed to have fights at the footy any more (AFL, I mean) so lets have a good old political punch up instead, with chairs being thrown, and all sorts of stuff.

    Gold! Thanks imacca 🙂

  21. I don’t care an iota about unions, I don’t know anyone who cares about unions.

    Seriously… who goes to bed at night and worries about union bosses under the bed?

    They’ll control our every moment in our lives? Huh? They’ll force me eat my greens and take out the bins?

    This stuff is just loopy. This is meant to be a rational, in control government?

  22. #523
    Noocat Says:
    October 18th, 2007 at 8:16 pm
    I agree. The only thing that might hold them back is the near certainty that in doing so, Howard will use the ads to say that Rudd is so compromised by union influence that he is now out there trying to defend them.

    I would ask the people who were helped by Combet,Burrows,Shorten in the James Hardie case to appear on camera and defend them against JWH.Something along the line of:”Prime Minister,when the going was tough and we needed help in our struggle with James Hardie who stood by our side.The Union Movement.Not your Government.”

  23. Get a load of that Sol! And they call Rudd Pixie! They are the best lugs I’ve seen since Mr Spock!

    And he shills for the Liberal Party. Who else disses his own work when his party of choice is in the crapper?

  24. Derek Corbett @ 520

    I hate people abusing the language, loathe straw man arguments and detest the ol’ ad hominen attack, it’s just so fascist. Poking trolls with their own lies therefore comes naturally to me, gives me some kind of sick pleasure I’m afraid.

    Hey Glen, what’s the interest rate? lol

  25. So Howard gets on camera and criticises the Labor Party for being pro union, so what? he would also be criticising the actions of people who did some very noble deeds and it would look embarrassing and in poor taste… “Put simply when will the Labor Party have the guts and stand by its foundations”…
    Anyway in regard to this.. if the polls over the next few days are not moving much i would just leave it alone and let the Libs continue to run the stupid scare campaign…

  26. Lol, Labcest , it really hurts when it is exposed in sunlight.

    Come back to the light workers of Australia and re take your heritage from the spivs of the Labor party who have taken it over.

  27. Sondeo #537: ‘I would ask the people who were helped by Combet,Burrows,Shorten in the James Hardie case to appear on camera and defend them against JWH.Something along the line of:”Prime Minister,when the going was tough and we needed help in our struggle with James Hardie who stood by our side.The Union Movement.Not your Government.”’

    Bernie Banton can’t manage the camera. He’s too ill due to the two terminal illnesses he contracted thanks to James Hardie’s asbestos. However he did his best, over the phone, on The World Today:

    http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2007/s2062865.htm

    “Where was Joe Hockey when we were fighting against James Hardie? He was nowhere to be seen. Without their support, and their absolute total commitment to getting that deal done, we wouldn’t have a deal, for all those thousands of future victims.

    “Look, without the union movement, we would’ve been getting absolutely diddly-squat for all those victims. And you know there’s another 53,000 people are going to be affected by asbestos related disease by 2020, and 13,000 of those people are going to die because of mesothelioma. And he says that unions are irrelevant? I think Joe Hockey is irrelevant, totally irrelevant to this election.”

  28. ESJ, I may not like the union influence on the Labor party and wish it were reformed, BUT if workers need protection, there is only one party there to protect them.

    Labor

  29. 539; True, have to rein in my assumptions.

    H’mm, so somewhere out there in the wilds of cyberspace there could some triple FemBot right wing action going on, at this moment, and they take turns to surface and shoot off a post…..

    Almost as entertaining a thinking about Rattus’s reaction to a bad ACN poll in the morning. Can he hear the sound of a tax policy hitting an iceberg and sinking without trace?? Will he put Janet and Alexander in the lifeboat first????

  30. ESJ,

    The scene is a graveyard. Prince Kevvie of Brisbane begins with skull in his hand…………….

    Alas, Poor Johnnie,
    I knew him well

  31. So, the evidence mounts! I ask again, how many former union BOSSES are in the government front bench??

    Abbott: former journos union BOSS!
    Nelson: former doctors union BOSS!
    Costello: Fomer social democrat, & student UNION politician!
    Truss: Farmer’s union STOOGE!

    By my calculations, thats 87%.

  32. I know no-one on this site would be seen dead watching A Current Affair but I just happened to have it on tonight and they’ve been running a poll with the question – Who will you vote for, John Howard or Kevin Rudd.

    The latest update is:

    Total votes 16000

    Howard 71%
    Rudd 29%

    Methinks a little bit of vote tampering may have been going on.

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