Taverner: 59-41 in NSW and Victoria

Possum Comitatus informs us of a Taverner poll to be published in tomorrow’s Sun-Herald which will show Labor leading 59-41 in New South Wales and Victoria, and of a Galaxy poll to be published on Monday bringing the Coalition bad news from marginal seats. Taverner conducted electorate-level polling from New South Wales during the 2004 campaign, which proved fairly accurate.

UPDATE: Sun-Herald coverage now available, complete with the remarkable finding that Labor leads 73-27 among 18-29 year olds. No indication of sample size that I can see. While you’re there, have a look at their nifty graphic showing the size of Labor’s majorities as indicated by monthly ACNielsen polling results since June.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

398 comments on “Taverner: 59-41 in NSW and Victoria”

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  1. Should El Rodente blow his bugle tomorrow for Nov 24, site habitues who are fortunate enough to remain attuned to circadian rhythm will have 40 sleeps before our Night of Nights.

    Yeah, BB, went with the family to see it tonight also, to the merriment of all. Didn’t think of you-know-what once. Very therapeutic.

    Thank you, Mr. Possum. From a wicked-witted marsupial, that’s high praise indeed.

  4. Good, Enemy Combatant. Always helps to distract the mind. South Ozzies might like to think of Tasting Australia on the Torrens Riverbank, tomorrow. I’ll be there. (with my trannie)

  5. Those of you with student children of voting age, who might be away from home for schoolies, should encourage them and their friends to vote pre-poll before they leave.
    By encourage, I mean frogmarch them down to the polling place. Typically pre-poll operates for two weeks prior to the day, and a vote can be lodged at any electoral office (not the schools and halls of polling day).

  7. The heavy Labor preference by the over 55s indicates a lot of people concerned by the effects of WorkChoices on their kids and grandkids. To capitalise on this, I hope the trade unions really step up their campaign once the election is called. Let’s see if the Liberals run any pro-WorkChoices ads (lol).

  8. Well this has just sucked all the air out of Howard’s reconciliation ‘come back’ and totally disrupted his planned campaign launch pad.

    Brilliant.

  11. Anybody know about this, from ozelection2007 site:

    “but here in Sydney you can watch Four Corners on the ABC this coming Monday night.,they are doing a show on the Exclusive Bretheren and the links to the PM and the Liberal Party.”

  12. Forget the schoolies, half of them are to young to vote anyway. Think of the uni students, this is gonna clash with my exams and final assignments. While uni will clash with my campaign helping. It would almost be worth failing and having to repeat some units if labor wins.

  13. Jason Koutsoukis
    October 14, 2007
    Young people fear it, workers resent it and business people hate its bureaucratic complexity.
    WorkChoices has been a disaster and Howard will have to wear the blame.
    .
    .
    That says it all really.

  14. Adam, I think that one of our local pollyvamps (Devine or that Albrechtson lass) took Sullivans cliche and turned it into 4 degrees of stupid, using the fact that the 04 election had roughly the same number of 18-34s giving their primary to each of the two majors.

    Agree though – Sullivan is a great blogger, especially since his epiphany about the way politics actually works in the US.

  16. Good thinking, Peter Fuller.

    And same about the frogmarch for the maybe other childies, perhaps early twenties, who, are as some of my nieces and nephews, usually working a full (ill paid) Saturday.

  17. From the Jason Koutsoukis’s article- The Age.

    “Howard’s famed instinct for being in touch with the electorate has proved a myth.

    The WorkChoices folly has exposed Howard as being just like any other politician who stays too long. They start to hear voices and believe their own bull.

    The Coalition’s toadies are still talking up the prospect of Labor self-destructing like Mark Latham did in 2004.

    The big difference is that, already well in front, Rudd is under no pressure to perform the stunts Latham had to pull to get people’s attention. Instead, Rudd has the luxury of being able to run a cautious and careful campaign.

    In contrast, Howard looks nervous, rattled and tired even before the campaign has officially begun.

    This time around, it may well be Howard who makes the horrendous blunder”

    ————-
    ……Sh#t yeah, finally MSM are waking up to the fact that Workchoices, Howard’s 30yr old baby was a dud policy. Having all of the Liberals and Nationals voting for this piece of shite legislation makes them all targets on voting day.

  18. Now that the real figures have come through on that oldies breakdown, those figures seem too large.That’s approaching a 20% swing against the Coalition in their historically strongest age demographic.A 10% swing I’d believe, maybe even 12%…. but something approaching 20 is out there folks.

    Small samples will do that – the headline figure is a solid one though.

  21. Vic results dont surprise me.

    a. 60+ can a do vote ALP at state level.
    b. Even Latho got 49% 2PP. Thats hardcore.
    c. Fraser – the grand duke of victorian liberals – is basically a full time campaigner against Howard. This is small-l territory down here. Even Bailleau, as pissweak as he is, must be said to be the least deranged member, most presentable member of the freakshow otherwise known as ‘the state opposition leaders’.

  22. This just reinforces what Possum and Adam have been saying for ages, that Workchoices is a dominant issue in this election.

    {The Government’s controversial WorkChoices has emerged as a major vote switcher, with two-thirds of voters saying the laws were having a strong influence on their voting intentions.}

    Also, I can’t think why pollsters seem to have trouble accepting what is clearly evident from the data collated during the poll.

    {Pollster Philip Mitchell-Taverner said the results were calamitous for the Liberals “and far worse than I expected”.

    “Their only hope is to find a way to discredit Kevin Rudd, and he seems impregnable at the moment, despite concerns that he has not proven himself as a leader yet,” he said.}

    http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/race-is-on-as-virgin-voters-go-for-rudd/2007/10/13/1191696241329.html

    Surely, if 50 to 60 percent of people are prepared to vote for Rudd, and a similar percentage prefer him to Howard, and this has been fairly consistent throughout the polls and for considerable time, then where do the concerns come from that Rudd has yet to prove himself or be accepted by voters. It just doesn’t make any sense whatsoever.

  24. Had a look at Jason Koutsoukis’s article- The Age.

    Astonishing, really, that the MSM are getting it. Finally. Am I mistaken, but is JK usually a Howard barracker?

  25. Jason Koutsoukis October 14, 2007 writes

    ‘Young people fear it, workers resent it and business people hate its bureaucratic complexity.’

    I reckon the ALP could use that as a slogan.

  27. {In contrast, Howard looks nervous, rattled and tired even before the campaign has officially begun.}

    Not anywhere as nervious and rattled as he will be if Galaxy and Newspoll come up with similar figures.

    {This time around, it may well be Howard who makes the horrendous blunder”}

    He may not need to, now. There’s a string of them made already, but the biggest one of all, “workchoices” is probably enough on its own to see him off.

  29. If the Coalition suffers the electoral catastrophe they deserve, and the cause is put down to WorkChoices, it will be the ultimate rejection of Howard and his bizarre beliefs. How satisfying that the most cherished Howard policy is to be his unglorious downfall. Showing that, on IR, he was always woefully, tragically out of touch.

  30. Dr Good #120

    Good thinking but not much help to me, they are both UWA lecturers (I think) and unfortunately I dont go there. Guess ill have to resort to bribes.

  33. Antony Green’s Election Calculator is going to get a fair sort of a work-over this week. Especially by liberals in marginal and what have been considered, reasonably safe seats.

  36. Yes, completely out of touch, and a bizarre ideological frankenstein in permanent backflip mode to boot.

    Perfect way to start the campaign; with a steel-capped poll boot to the nads.

    As I said earlier, my own view is that Howard will be on ropes by week 2 of the campaign.

  38. Oh, and one last note for the evening, on the 07 theme:

    1967: Howard’s loses in attempt to win NSW seat

    1987: Howard loses federal election.

    2007:….

  39. “Race is on as virgin voters go for Rudd”

    Self appointed bastions of the public morality like Bill Heffernan will bring serious grief to La Cause if he shoots from the hip in response to a headline like this.

    Desperate times call for desperate measures. In order to tighten his Party’s perceived lock on “more experienced voters”, perhaps the good Senator could counter by brandishing a Boiler Attendant’s Certificate to camera during his doorstop tomorrow.

  42. Crikey Whitey @ 124,

    Jason Koutsoukis is certainly no Howard supporter. He was an ALP member in his early days, before his decision to become a journalist obviously forced his resignation from the party. He’s never been a favourite of the Coalition’s.

  43. News just in:

    Crosby and Textor sigted this evening on the outskirts of Bourke, spotlighting for rabbitts.

    Confirmation that Howard has run out of his supply of rodents.

  44. I’ve always found the term “South Park Conservative” a rather curious oxymoron.

    Anyone who’s seen the way the show so consistently pushes the envelope knows that South Park could not, in any way, be described as conservative. It’s the very antithesis! Indeed, South Park often comes under fire from conservative religious and “family values” groups in the US.

    I wonder if the right-wing commentators who bandy the term about have actually ever watched the show. (The term “South Park Republican”, on the other hand, I have no problem with.)

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