Possum Comitatus informs us of a Taverner poll to be published in tomorrow’s Sun-Herald which will show Labor leading 59-41 in New South Wales and Victoria, and of a Galaxy poll to be published on Monday bringing the Coalition bad news from marginal seats. Taverner conducted electorate-level polling from New South Wales during the 2004 campaign, which proved fairly accurate.
UPDATE: Sun-Herald coverage now available, complete with the remarkable finding that Labor leads 73-27 among 18-29 year olds. No indication of sample size that I can see. While you’re there, have a look at their nifty graphic showing the size of Labor’s majorities as indicated by monthly ACNielsen polling results since June.
24th November is schoolies weekend in SA, and during the broader schoolies period for most states. Any idea whether that will make much difference?
BRING IT OOOOOOOOOOON
A bit about the poll – cant find anything elsewhere yet though:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22582402-29277,00.html
Thanks Possum at #41 and Apologies to Bluebottle at #33
Simply amazing:
The poll shows 73 per cent of people aged 18 to 29 in NSW and Victoria prefer Kevin Rudd’s Labor Party to Prime Minister John Howard’s Coalition.
It also shows 60 per cent of those surveyed aged 30 to 54 years prefer Labor.
I’m not surprised by talk of a swing in Victoria, everyday I talk to a great number of people across public and private sector industries and can say that the biggest critics of workchoices tend to live in Liberal seats.
I think Victoria will be patchy with all Govt seats under 10% being worth a look expect Higgins and Dunkley, above 10% I feel Casey, Aston, Goldstein and Flinders are worth a look.
What’s scary about these poll numbers is Victoria isn’t known as big swing state like Queensland and NSW.
Eric @ 49 Perhaps Alex will be to smashed and forget to vote.
The 24th is also the start of schoolies week in NSW and the end of it in QLD. A lot of potential 1st time voters will fail to vote. Politics will be the last thing on their minds.
The oldies movement is interesting, its somewhere around a 9% swing to the ALP.
Possum, There’s absolutely nothing anyone can tell you about Victoria except that Howard is particularly loathed here, plus the antipathy between the Costello mob and the Kennett mob. Kennett now loves Kevvie because of the pre and post birth depression iniative with & $ attached. From my professional point of view, it’s a smart thing to do. However, there’s always the money, when it comes to health funding. And if Bushfire Bill got himself into a knot about the possibilities of advertising $ being the point of Howard’s manouverings, you would have a field day about the money involved in health technology.
Well then, Kina 53.
bluddy hell Eric, i think we’re going to have to put my granddaughter under house arrest if thats the election weekend, i dont think we could stand the worry over her AND the election outcome at the same time.
How many kids turn up to this event?
“Labor is however favoured by 56 per cent of all women surveyed, and 62 per cent of the men.”
Never thought of JWH as a chick magnet.
“John, John, wake up, I have it”
“Australians have never been….what dear, you have what ” ?
” I have the solution to the polls John, I got it at the hairdresser”
“Youve been talking to Hillary again, haven’t you dear”
“What ? Never mind. Here it is John, Schwarzkopfs RE-NATURE Repigmentation”
“Oh, uh what do you do with it, should I eat first before I drink it”
“Funny John, you know how that makes me err….well you know, when you titter so., But no, you put it in your hair John”
“Darling you might have noticed Im going bald and that comb over you trained me to use isn’t working anymore”
“Dosent matter John, you can give the perception that you have RE-NATURED yourself , you know like you did with the Abadidjabe…oh God, weve ignored them for so long I can’t remember how to say it..Abadidja..”
“Never mind that J, what do the application instructions say ? ”
“Well John, you need to use 2 tubes of ‘Medium Cream’, you know like when you started throwing money around to pretend you were a moderate in the middle ”
“Oh ok, what next”
“When your done with that you apply one tube of ‘Caring Shampoo’
‘You must be joking, even my pet sock won’t swallow that one, Caring, Phhh”
“Okay John, well you might as well use the plastic gloves for something.. I have an idea..”
“Now youre’ talking, open that packet dear”
Hello Bluebottle, You’ve now also got my address. It’s O.K. if you ‘re on my side, you get chicken dinners, if you’re on the dark side, you get slivered livers.
Shanahan and others like him annoy me too at times, but I think they unintentionally serve a valuable purpose for the ALP. It doesn’t pay to go into elections with everyone saying you are a shoo-in because of the tendancy for some electors to side with the underdog. Hence Peter Beattie’s insistence in the recent Queensland election that it would be close – when he and anyone with even half a brain knew it would be an absolute creaming.
So let the likes of Shanahan and Spears persist with their myth that the polls – which haven’t changed for nearly a year now – are about to narrow. They are only playing into the hands of the ALP.
We got decent rain tonight – an omen. Labor must be on the way.
Kina squillions of them will be out celebrating and off the planet– it’s the graduation event of the year,a sort of coming of age, it’s usually at Victor Harbour here.
Would be too mean minded of me to comment on JWH in the lycra shorts and the wattle track top, looking ever so……
Eric Says:
October 13th, 2007 at 10:51 pm
24th November is schoolies weekend in SA, and during the broader schoolies period for most states. Any idea whether that will make much difference?
Probably be a big heap of informal, absentee ballot papers go in.
Most of them will probably be too drunk or drugged to know what they are doing. lol
This up on the SMH about the Taverner poll
http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Labor-leads-coalition-in-latest-poll/2007/10/13/1191696246427.html
judy 66. Let’s rove and round ’em up, if needs be, I will desert Brighton area to do so. Think Victor is Kingston, I have Amanda Rishworth’s phone number, if needs be.
Kina: 100 000+
This idjit volunteered to round up a bus load of letter droppers for tomorrow so I better go to bed. Night all, enjoy the last sleep before the big correction election announcement.
good idea Crikey, march ’em in to do their duty, i dunno about rounding them up — more like propping them up i think, i can hear our Amber now-“nan you wouldnt dare, really nan, no, you wouldnt dare, yoiks nan dont you DARE”!!! pmsl.
Bearing in mind and with great respect, your experience, Judy, a little reminder as to the boys and girls as to their real duty apart from sentimental Anzac nods, may help.
Nobody has commented on what I believe is the quote of the campaign. An Aboriginal spokesman from Qld yesterday described JWH and his reconciliation enlightenment as “new skin, same old snake!” Classic!!
Whatever happened to those “South Park Conservatives”?
Remember them – I swear some dingbat was was raving on about these dudes changing the face of politics permantly or some twaddle.
Kina Says:
October 13th, 2007 at 11:04 pm
55
James J Says:
October 13th, 2007 at 10:57 pm
The 24th is also the start of schoolies week in NSW and the end of it in QLD. A lot of potential 1st time voters will fail to vote. Politics will be the last thing on their minds.
How many kids turn up to this event
A few, mainly the ones that are sick of school, parents, teachers and the ones that want to get ripped, drunk and laid….in that order
Good news from Brisbane Central.
Grace Grace out polls Beattie.
{Ms Grace won the inner-city Brisbane seat after securing more than 50 per cent of the primary vote, surpassing Mr Beattie’s result of 49 per cent of the primary vote at last year’s state poll.
With almost 60 per cent of the vote counted, Ms Grace lead with 50.06 per cent of the vote, or 9,753 votes, representing a one per cent swing to Labor.
Her closest rival, Greens candidate Anne Boccabella, trailed with 33.96 per cent of the vote, followed a distant third by Family First candidate Mark White with 7.87 per cent of the vote.}
http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Labor-wins-Brisbane-Central-byelection/2007/10/13/1191696239875.html
Another good omen, me thinks.
Got this one stuck on a previous thread. Here it is again.
So it seems it will be called tomorrow. I’d tipped it for today based on information received. Got it wrong. I doubt Howard will be dropping in on the GG tonight. My impression of him (the GG) is that he will probably have the jammies and dressingown on and sipping a mug of Milo in his armchair.
But what I want to flag now is that if Howard wins the election I’m calling for an inquiry. Not an inquiry into the polls (as in UK some years ago – forget when). An inquiry – no, a Royal Commission – into the Australian voting public.
I want all those people who told the pollsters they’d vote Labor and then changed their mind to stand up an explain themselves.
We will need to know why they got it wrong. Public humiliation should be required.
Question for some of you…Was there more agreement (ie. funding) when the ALP was in office Federally and in Some states at the same time?
I’m thinking of the 80’s, as here in SA we had Bannon and Hawke in office…
Correction for that news.com.au story.
“It also shows 60 per cent of those surveyed aged 30 to 54 years prefer Labor.
But the coalition just edges Labor with the over 55s, with 51 per cent favouring the Government.”
The actual figures in the poll are apparently Labor ahead 51-49 in the 30 to 54 years and remarkably 59-41 in the over 55’s!
This info comes from my reliable source. So the big story really is the massive youth vote and grey swing to Labor.
History will record that HOWARD and HUBRIS got drunk on POWER after the unexpected senate majority in 2004 and 9 months later produced an absolute bastard of a lovechild: Workchoices.
Now all the Libs have to live with the consequences…
btw Primaries are supposedly 50-38
Victor Harbour is in Mayo. There won’t be an election there because Lord Downer holds it by hereditary right.
Bob Brown is off with the fairies again though.
{Greens leader Bob Brown said the result augured well for the upcoming federal poll, expected to be called as early as Sunday.
“We are delighted,” Senator Brown told AAP.
“It is a huge fillip to our campaign for the Senate with Larissa Waters. We couldn’t have had a better start to the federal election campaign.”}
Most of that 33.96% vote for the Greens would be most likely Liberals with nowhere else to go.
[My impression of him (the GG) is that he will probably have the jammies and dressingown on and sipping a mug of Milo in his armchair.]
Actually he (Michael Jefferies) is OS at the moment. Acting GG is Marie Bashir.
No Darryl, he’s back.
#83: The GG returned from overseas last night
@79 Winston,
I think you mean a Truth Commission, Archbishop Desmond Tutu style? Or maybe that should come if Rudd wins.
If Howard wins this one I will be seeking refugee status in Canada.
Sorry.
I intended, Adam, that if a booth presence was helpful. Doesn’t matter about the electorate, per se.
{Governor-General Major General Michael Jeffery returned to Canberra on Friday night after a long trip abroad.}
http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/PM-in-Canberra-as-election-fever-builds/2007/10/13/1191696239246.html
“The actual figures in the poll are apparently Labor ahead 51-49 in the 30 to 54 years and remarkably 59-41 in the over 55’s!”
Make sure the oldies don’t go to schoolies week. Maybe the election will be 17th or 1st December
Crikey, i’m in Wakefield and thats sure to go our way, but my little social butterfly grandy lives in Boothby and every vote counts for us there, besides this old fossil isnt very impressed with the thought her running amok with a bunch of testesterone fired pimple faced brats.
The Greens are either ignorant or deluded. A state by-election with no Liberal is quite meaningless. It tells them nothing about the federal election. They are a very long shot for a Senate seat in Queensland, although at least they have given up running the snake Hutton, for whose bad behaviour see here:
http://www.greenswatch.com/bob_brown_embarassment.aspx
Rudd needs to do an ad to Parents and kids – kids, vote!
On reflection, the youngsters who have taken the trouble to enrol would intend to vote. Wherever they may be.
judy, I’m in Boothby. Still anguishing over where to put my booth effort, given. First loyalty is Kingston, anyway, forever miserable that I am cast out of my original electorate. Can’t see your gran roving Victor, true.
I don’t know if I can handle this campaign. Might go on holidays for a few weeks. I’m sick of anxiously waiting for the next poll to reassure me that everything is still ok.