• There doesn’t appear to be anyone left who expects parliament to sit next week. Dennis Shanahan and Matthew Franklin of The Australian report that the Prime Minister is “set to call a November 24 election tomorrow”. On the other hand, Maria Hawthorne of The Advertiser reckons the trigger might yet be pulled today, and that the date could yet be December 1, while Michelle Grattan and Ben Doherty of The Age think December 1 unlikely and are instead leaving open November 17. Canberra reader John Ryan fancies he can hear “the continuous humming of shredders” from government offices in Barton.
• A summary of the state of play in The Australian contains the surprising assessment that Labor is only an “outside chance” of winning the crucial Darwin-based seat of Solomon, in the view of “party strategists”. The report also points to a mere status quo result in Victoria, and takes a bullish view of the Liberals’ prospects in Western Australia. “Based on published opinion polls”, Coalition sources are said to be “optimistic” about retaining Stirling and Hasluck, and hopeful of gaining Cowan and Swan. There is little reason this should be so, as those polls almost uniformly show a swing to Labor in WA that would win them all four. The one striking exception has been the only electorate-level poll to have emerged, a Westpoll survey from June that had the Liberals narrowly ahead in Stirling, Hasluck and Cowan. This was a considerably worse result for Labor than those that have emerged from Westpoll’s monthly statewide surveys of federal voting intention during the last six months. On the other side of the ledger, the report tells us the Coalition is “expected” to divert resources from a number of seats in the other mainland states which are regarded as lost causes, including Lindsay and Dobell in New South Wales, Bonner in Queensland and Kingston, Makin and Wakefield in South Australia. In Tasmania, Labor is said only to be no more than “confident” of recovering Bass and Braddon.
• Laura Tingle notes some patterns in the Prime Minister’s recent movements in yesterday’s Financial Review:
In the past three months, Howard’s been seen in the vicinity of his barely held South Australian electorates only when he announced (at the state Liberal Party conference, not in the electorates) a $100 million road project. He hasn’t turned up in Ross Vasta’s seat of Bonner since April … the Prime Minister has been a little more active in seats held with margins between 1 and 3 per cent – notably the Tasmanian seats of Braddon and Bass.
• Here’s a thought. At the state election last March, Nick Xenophon stunned everybody when he did well enough to win a seat not only for himself, but also for his No Pokies running mate. Who’s to say he can’t do it again? The vote recorded for Xenophon’s ticket at the state election was 20.5 per cent. Those who say he can’t possibly do that well again might be right – but on the other hand, they might not be. If not, Xenophon will score his quota with 6.2 per cent to spare. That surplus will then go to his second candidate, henceforth to be called Xenophon 2, who would very likely emerge ahead of the Greens (6.4 per cent in 2004) after preferences. If the Greens put Xenophon ahead of the major parties on preferences, as they did at the state election, this should push Xenophon 2 into double figures. This scenario leaves at best 75 per cent of the vote left over for the major parties, and most likely a fair bit less. Unless one of the two major parties gets 43 per cent from that share, the third candidate of the weaker of the two major parties will be eliminated and Xenophon 2 will be elected on their preferences. Another possibility, noted by Penelope Debelle in The Age, is that Xenophon 2 won’t do quite well enough to overhaul the Greens, but could feed them enough preferences to put them in contention for the sixth seat.
• John Wiseman of The Australian points to another possible side-effect of Xenophon’s nomination: that he might “have an impact on House of Representatives marginals should he choose to endorse or support candidates as he did for some at last year’s state election”. Xenophon had a direct bearing on the other big surprise of the state election, Kris Hanna’s success in retaining his seat of Mitchell as an independent after quitting first the ALP and then the Greens. Hanna had closely associated himself with Xenophon, pooling campaign resources in Mitchell and appearing at a press conference with him when he announced he was leaving the Greens.
• Tamar Valley vigneron and anti-pulp mill campaigner Peter Whish-Wilson says he has decided against running as an independent in Bass. Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports that Labor polling has the Greens candidate at 18 per cent, but that the mill is not considered a “vote changer” as far as the major parties are concerned.
Ed – no doubt it would be pretty traumatic to lose to a Clinton again though. He seems to be currently following a Bill model – waiting till the latest possible time, then if he thinks he can win steaming in at full speed.
Yeah and isn’t it ironic that insiders betting on sports, stocks and whatever are subjected to harsh penalties while pollies betting on seats has no regulation? Or is there some law against it? I’d be intrigued to see who is propping up Howard’s current price in Bennelong. It doesn’t look that safe a bet to me.
Darn, Mackerras mentioned the Senate. I read about it today on this thread -40 Ray .
It will be interesting to see how many people have enrolled or re-enrolled in recent times. Last election, new voters and people who had changed their place of living were given a week of grace to enrol or re-enrol after the issue of writs. In that week, 80,00 new voters enrolled and 345,000 re-enrolled. This time new voters have only till 8pm on the day of the issue of writs and those who re-enrol have three days.
I live in a marginal seat. Apart from the weak AEC television ads I have only seen one mention of the new arrangements in my local member’s newsletter. One hopes the ALP has been targeting students etc in a full-on enrolment campaign. Good to hear that trade unions have been targeting their members.
John Rocket, why do they bet on anything? There is insider trading on everything, from the stockmarket to horse racing, etc.
Derek, I’m sure that the hard numbers folks on here can (begrudgingly) direct you to studies which indicate that in the recent past the betting markets have been more accurate than opinion polls in Australia. I have also read a little about how’s and why’s by social scientists using all sorts of weird modelling I do not understand.
103 should have read 80,000 new voters enrolled.
Damn – just read he wont be calling it today.
Oh the humanity!
Whilst everyone says ALP needs 16 seats for government, in reality it only needs 15 (it therefore ends up with 75 seats). If it has 75 seats it can block all legislation of the government, as the government would only have 74 seats (inc independents) plus the speaker.
If ALP has 75 seats, the independents will back the ALP, end of story!
[On a cynical note, a big weepy Labor funeral will be very good TV as we go into the election. Unlike the Libs, we love our old troupers and give them big sendoffs.]
It makes it hard for Rudd if he has to be in Perth on Monday or Tuesday when the election has just been called.
He may send Gillard instead.
where did you read that brissyrod?
How’s this for an INCREDIBLY arrogant last line?
Howard continues delay
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federalelection2007news/howard-continues-delay/2007/10/13/1191696220930.html
[“Frustrated reporters repeatedly questioned the prime minister over when the nation will decide its political future.
“I answer every question that’s put to me,” Mr Howard told reporters.
When asked when he would be returning to Canberra to make the expectant announcement he was less than forthcoming.
“I don’t normally telegraph my travel arrangements,” he said.
“A bloke’s entitled to a certain amount of privacy.”]
Thanks Pancho. I just find it odd that ostensibly sane people seem put great faith in these figures.
How much of a swing to the Libs when the next Newspoll is released will be a concern for Labor?
[How’s this for an INCREDIBLY arrogant last line? ]
Surely he means he is calling the election tomorrow. He can’t use the “I know, but I’m not saying” line for all of next week as well. It would just make him sound very desparate.
The announcing of the election is now becoming an issue itself.
If Howard doesn’t call it tomorrow, and parliament is recalled, then all the media will turn feral. Even Shanahan said on Agenda this week that there is no reason for parliament to be recalled. There is no important legislation pending.
It’s a game and Howard is loving it. He doesn’t realise how bad this is now looking in the eyes of the electorate.
[The announcing of the election is now becoming an issue itself.]
Surely it will be called tomorrow. Let’s say he waits and gets a bad Newspoll on Tuesday. What does he do then? Wait another 2 weeks?
I agree from a neutral position Derek, but I think the theory is a market based one – punters will not put personal gain on the line unless they feel the odds are with them. there is probably a deal of insider money on it. Here is a snippet, not too scientific, but along the above logic:
http://www.ozpolitics.info/blog/2007/03/19/opinion-polls-v-betting-markets/
what are the probable times he could call it today or tomorrow?
It will be called at lunch time.
Saturation media coverage to capture people eating their family roasts at home with the TV switched on, and plenty of time for media outlets to meet their deadlines.
Howard would also have time to pop back up to Bennelong and do a bit of campaigning with any momentum from the announcement.
[Saturation media coverage to capture people eating their family roasts at home with the TV switched on,]
Can I go over your place, I haven’t had a Sunday roast for about 15 years. 😛
Logic says he will call it sometime tomorrow afternoon, to get a big splash on the evening news. More people watch TV news on Sunday than any other night of the week. The writs will issued on Monday.
Derek C, as far as predicting the outcome of the election is concerned, the bookmakers are in the business of getting it right. They may be willing to accept bets of upto a million dollars.
Whether they do get it right or not is another matter. But I do know one thing, if Howard is returned the polls will be a load of garbage forever.
Gaynor Says:
October 13th, 2007 at 2:03 pm
It will be called at lunch time.
Saturation media coverage to capture people eating their family roasts at home with the TV switched on, and plenty of time for media outlets to meet their deadlines.
do people still do roasts on Sunday?
Bill – brisbanetimes.com.au has quoted Howards office saying he is spending the rest of the day in Sydney and therefore is unlikely to call it today i.e no visit to GG.
Roast lamb, roast potatoes and vegies, apple pie, icream and cream.
Washed down with a bottle of shiraz or a Crown Lager.
Scones, cream and jam, with a fresh pot of tea, for afternoon tea.
The kids love it.
Sounds good Gaynor what state do you live in again?
[Roast lamb, roast potatoes and vegies, apple pie, icream and cream.
Washed down with a bottle of shiraz or a Crown Lager.
Scones, cream and jam, with a fresh pot of tea, for afternoon tea.
The kids love it.]
Sounds very nice. But this would conflict with my desire to be below 80 KG by election day. 😛
Oh Gaynor, Idyllic! Do you have swings out the back?
“I’m having trouble seeing more that 10 solid gains for Labor. How certain is Dobell? Can’t see either Wentorth or Bennelong falling. If it seems too good to be true it probably is. Help. What am I missing?”
They call it the Big Picture, DJ.
Might like to try a decent set of designer spectacles for psephologically myopic:)
I have a large trampoline if anyone is interested.
The mind boggles!
yes the mind does Gaynor
Gaynor, your place on a Sunday sounds perfect
You’d put on 80kg in an afternoon at my place dear!
Gaynor – what about the gravy?
Pancho, Centre: Ta for that. A million oxfords! Good god! Learn something every day …
Could we see a Poll bludger romance developing?
Phil (103)
I don’t know why you regard the AEC ads as weak. Given the bind Howard’s new laws on roll closure have put the AEC in, I think they have done a very good job to try and warn people that they need to enrol immediately – or update their enrolment – NOW. Or risk missing out on their vote.
I can’t see what else they could have done.
Paul Keating called the 1996 Election on a Saturday
The beef stock mixed with the juice of the lamb, and a dollop of jam and wine, does the trick. I make sure it is thick and smooth.
Garlic bread is also a nice touch.
Trouble is the PM’s announcement wouldn’t be heard over the sound of burping and slurping.
Not to mention the AEC is doing the best it can with the funds available to it. If the government had their way there would have been no advertising it.
Any chance the internal polling could’ve been factoring in people who are not yet enroled? If so, is it possible that this may be what’s swinging them to be more optimistic in keeping some of their seats?
You have to wonder if they’re so confident of holding the ALP back to 4 gains why Howard bothered with the reconciliation stunt.
“Trouble is the PM’s announcement wouldn’t be heard over the sound of burping and slurping.”
You live by that Castle maxim: ‘At dinnertime, the TV is definately turned down’?
Avert your eyes. What bludgers do in private is none of our business. Where’s glen. We need some sanity here.
You have to wonder if they’re so confident of holding the ALP back to 4 gains why Howard bothered with the reconciliation stunt.
Is that what the libs think that they will only loose 4 seats?
All i can say that i am so over it ! waiting for Howie to call it is like watchin paint dry
Has anyone considered that the very model of a modern Governor General hasn’t come to Sydney to spend the night at Amiralty House, conveniently next door to Hyacinth, so John and the Major can have a chat over the fence tomorrow morning?
Its reported that Xenophon could help some of the lower house candidates. I didnt think there was any well known or high polling independents in SA
Gaynor (124)
Wherever you live I’m going to find you. I haven’t had a Sunday roast like that for years. Make sure you cook enough roast spuds for seconds.
Darn@135
‘I don’t know why you regard the AEC ads as weak. ‘
I found them confusing – mostly older people looking for a box of light!
As the disenfranchised are mostly 18-30, something by The Chasers would get peoples’ attention.
Gaynor: perfick.
I nominate Gaynor to hold the election night party.