Phoney war dispatches: final edition

• There doesn’t appear to be anyone left who expects parliament to sit next week. Dennis Shanahan and Matthew Franklin of The Australian report that the Prime Minister is “set to call a November 24 election tomorrow”. On the other hand, Maria Hawthorne of The Advertiser reckons the trigger might yet be pulled today, and that the date could yet be December 1, while Michelle Grattan and Ben Doherty of The Age think December 1 unlikely and are instead leaving open November 17. Canberra reader John Ryan fancies he can hear “the continuous humming of shredders” from government offices in Barton.

• A summary of the state of play in The Australian contains the surprising assessment that Labor is only an “outside chance” of winning the crucial Darwin-based seat of Solomon, in the view of “party strategists”. The report also points to a mere status quo result in Victoria, and takes a bullish view of the Liberals’ prospects in Western Australia. “Based on published opinion polls”, Coalition sources are said to be “optimistic” about retaining Stirling and Hasluck, and hopeful of gaining Cowan and Swan. There is little reason this should be so, as those polls almost uniformly show a swing to Labor in WA that would win them all four. The one striking exception has been the only electorate-level poll to have emerged, a Westpoll survey from June that had the Liberals narrowly ahead in Stirling, Hasluck and Cowan. This was a considerably worse result for Labor than those that have emerged from Westpoll’s monthly statewide surveys of federal voting intention during the last six months. On the other side of the ledger, the report tells us the Coalition is “expected” to divert resources from a number of seats in the other mainland states which are regarded as lost causes, including Lindsay and Dobell in New South Wales, Bonner in Queensland and Kingston, Makin and Wakefield in South Australia. In Tasmania, Labor is said only to be no more than “confident” of recovering Bass and Braddon.

• Laura Tingle notes some patterns in the Prime Minister’s recent movements in yesterday’s Financial Review:

In the past three months, Howard’s been seen in the vicinity of his barely held South Australian electorates only when he announced (at the state Liberal Party conference, not in the electorates) a $100 million road project. He hasn’t turned up in Ross Vasta’s seat of Bonner since April … the Prime Minister has been a little more active in seats held with margins between 1 and 3 per cent – notably the Tasmanian seats of Braddon and Bass.

• Here’s a thought. At the state election last March, Nick Xenophon stunned everybody when he did well enough to win a seat not only for himself, but also for his No Pokies running mate. Who’s to say he can’t do it again? The vote recorded for Xenophon’s ticket at the state election was 20.5 per cent. Those who say he can’t possibly do that well again might be right – but on the other hand, they might not be. If not, Xenophon will score his quota with 6.2 per cent to spare. That surplus will then go to his second candidate, henceforth to be called Xenophon 2, who would very likely emerge ahead of the Greens (6.4 per cent in 2004) after preferences. If the Greens put Xenophon ahead of the major parties on preferences, as they did at the state election, this should push Xenophon 2 into double figures. This scenario leaves at best 75 per cent of the vote left over for the major parties, and most likely a fair bit less. Unless one of the two major parties gets 43 per cent from that share, the third candidate of the weaker of the two major parties will be eliminated and Xenophon 2 will be elected on their preferences. Another possibility, noted by Penelope Debelle in The Age, is that Xenophon 2 won’t do quite well enough to overhaul the Greens, but could feed them enough preferences to put them in contention for the sixth seat.

John Wiseman of The Australian points to another possible side-effect of Xenophon’s nomination: that he might “have an impact on House of Representatives marginals should he choose to endorse or support candidates as he did for some at last year’s state election”. Xenophon had a direct bearing on the other big surprise of the state election, Kris Hanna’s success in retaining his seat of Mitchell as an independent after quitting first the ALP and then the Greens. Hanna had closely associated himself with Xenophon, pooling campaign resources in Mitchell and appearing at a press conference with him when he announced he was leaving the Greens.

• Tamar Valley vigneron and anti-pulp mill campaigner Peter Whish-Wilson says he has decided against running as an independent in Bass. Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports that Labor polling has the Greens candidate at 18 per cent, but that the mill is not considered a “vote changer” as far as the major parties are concerned.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

452 comments on “Phoney war dispatches: final edition”

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  1. so has anyone heard has the PM got up with the courage to head to the GG or were the numbers in his email this morning enough to keep him away?

  2. 32 Phil, there’s been plenty of polling to suggest this isn’t the case. Are you really suggesting all of the big swings will only be in Labor’s safe seats? When polling they don’t just poll Labor’s safe seats you know.

  3. Adam,

    If I were to use the phrase “Bangkok Dilemma”, would you like it acknowledged to ‘Dr Adam Carr’, or just plain old ‘Adam Carr’ ? It’s a brilliant description that should definitely become part of the lexicon of a much wider audience.

  4. Neil@49

    ‘People who are not enrolled have until 8pm on the day the writ is issued to complete an enrolment and have it received by the AEC.

    People who are enrolled have 3 working days after the issue of the writ to re-enrol.’

    mmm, I thought 24 hours was cutting it fine – 8pm on the day, that’s far worse.
    Has anyone got real figures on the number of potential disenfranchised?
    And what we can do to get them enrolled at this time?

  5. Latest news on the all important betting:

    ALP 1.40 / LIB 3.00

    Turnbull to hold his seat 1.40

    Howard 1.65 / Maxine 2.20
    Note: ALP have a better chance of winning the election than Howard holding his seat.

    The big money has come in for Al Gore to be president. The betting order now is: Clinton – Gore – Obama – Edwards.
    Do you think the Americans are capable of getting it right? I doubt it.
    Hillary is the short priced favourite. I would like to see Gore with Edwards or Obama as VP.

    Wouldn’t it be great for our relationship with the US if Howard was re-elected and Obama became president!

  6. Although Centrebet has come in to 1.47-2.70. I’d really love to know how much money was in these pools, and whether there is big insider money being thrown about.

  7. I don’t know why Rudd does not pre-empt Howard visit the Governor General and call the election.

    Most people think he’s the PM already and it will crtainly put everyone out of their misery.

  8. Centre,

    Gore is history. It’s going to be Hillary and maybe Obama as her running mate. Both Hillary and Obama have raised over 80 million dollars each and are way out in front. Plus the other thing often not mentioned is a lot of Democrats think Gore ran a terrible campaign against Bush back in 2000 and wouldn’t trust him with another shot.

  9. Pancho, there are no pools. The bookies offer prices and are prepared to accept bets in the tens of thousands without a blink. BTW It’s labor who have firmed into 1.40 and liberal out to 3.00, not the other way around.

  10. Why@54 – Part of the Your Rights at Work campaign, run by the ACTU and its affiliate unions, is to ensure that union members are correctly enrolled. This side of the campaign has been going on for more than 12 months.

  11. Centre: I have been following Centrebet (none of the others though) and Labor has blown out from 135 (I think – maybe 1.37?)-3.05 to 1.47-2.70 just this week. Still a huge lead in a two horse race, but some movement nonetheless.

    GG – If Rudd called the election he might be accused of reading from ‘rear-view mirrors or whatever those things are’ again.

  12. Sportingbet now shows the coalition shortening from 2.90 into 2.75, centrebet has them down to 2:70 while Portland is still showing 3.00.

  13. ruawake – I guess that bookies betting themselves amongst the market is the safety in trying to read the odds. Taking that into account also makes the odds gulf seem pretty extraordinary.

  14. Why #54

    There is nothing from stopping a PM from announcing at 7pm that there is to be an election.

    If it was only a House of Reps election, and the GG signed the writ the same day, then people who were not enrolled would only have until 8pm that day to complete and return an enrolment form to the AEC.

    It could also technically occur if there was an accompanying Senate election, as long as all the State Governors signed their respective Senate writs.

    It wouldn’t happen in the real world of course, but it is legally possible.

  15. The latest movement is the coalition out to 3.00. Confirmed with the best odds offered in the marketplace by Betfair ALP 1.48 / LIB 3.00.

    The brains of the punters is winning out over the propaganda of the media.

  16. Greenday should do a reprise of their hit ‘American Idiot’ & call it ‘Australian Idiot’ for the likes of Howard & his flea pickers !

  17. Agree – JWH will go tomorrow, not today – he needs the Sunday/Monday media. No-one’s awake on Saturday.

    About the 16 seats needed for a Labor government. Nat sources are confident of gaining Calare. Makes the Labor gain necesary 17, plus (maybe) 2 Lib gains in WA = 19. I reckon, if the acid goes on, Katter will fall in behind the Coalition. Windsor probably will also, although he’s hated by the Nats and the sentiment is returned in spades. I’m having trouble seeing more that 10 solid gains for Labor. How certain is Dobell? Can’t see either Wentorth or Bennelong falling. If it seems too good to be true it probably is. Help. What am I missing?

  18. ruawake, re way2bet, if you click on the individual bookie icons it takes you directly to each site. My observation is that the site rates are identical to the way2bet rates.

    cheers,

    Alan H

  19. Damien J #76

    Calare is irrelevant to the number of seats the ALP needs to win.

    They don’t hold Calare. The ALP has 60 seats, they need to win 76 seats to govern in their own right.

    They need to gain 16 seats. Calare does not change that equation.

  20. Possum, did I say that? Oh dear. I guess I will leave it to your discretion.

    Death of Beazley senior. Very sad, a fine Labor stalwart and a great gentleman – not to mention a fierce enemy of the left. The last living member of the Chifley Government Caucus.

    On a cynical note, a big weepy Labor funeral will be very good TV as we go into the election. Unlike the Libs, we love our old troupers and give them big sendoffs.

  21. I must be looking at the wrong betting agencies because all I can see from Centrebet, Sportingbet, Sports Acumen and Sportsbet is a firming for the coalition. Labor is roughly $1.45 and the Coalition $2.70. This has been firming up over the last couple of days. Maxine is also losing ground as far as the bookies are concerned.

  22. Maybe this has been mentioned and answered elsewhere and I simply need to keep more up-to-date, but can anybody please tell me what has happened to the OzElection2007 forum? Has it been deleted or has it migrated to a new address? I keep getting “Not Found” whenever I type in http://www.ozelection2007.info/forums/ and http://www.ozelection2007.info seems to be a placeholder page for some online software. As much as I enjoy reading Poll Bludger, I also miss the discussions at the other site, which I haven’t been able to access for the past week.

  23. IAS and Portland were the last agencies to adjust their odds. The coalition have eased out to 3.00. This is confirmed by Betfair who have ALP 1.48 / LIB 3.00 as of real time 30 seconds ago.

  24. Thanks Gary, seems to be 2 different sites with different odds for Portlandbet. Will be watching this carefully over the next week, if Labor drifts out a any further will invest a bit more at better odds.

  25. Not sure I approve of taking bets on the future of our glorious nation. In my fuzzy opinion, that sort of thing should be confined to neddies and skinny dogs.

    Do these “odd” thingies give a reasonably accurate preview of an election result? Any precendents?

  26. Why do they allow betting on elections? Given that some do have access to quite a lot of insider information?

    While this information may not make it a certain bet, it certainly give these insiders a pretty good chance of winning.

  27. Gore has completely re-invented his public persona since 2000. He was in Clinton’s shadow to a large extent then. He would be a strong president now. Maybe Tip should do something like this. Go away and get his personality rounded and defined. Still young enough for a second go later on.

    I think Gore would win easily this time, if he can get the nomination. He must be sorely tempted.

  28. On the Greens and the Senate:

    Last Nielsen Poll had Greens at 8%.

    Morgan and Newspoll have had the Greens way down – but Newspoll always underestimates them and Morgan, most of the time has been showing the ALP at levels no-one believes.

    The more Rudd sticks to the middle during a campaign the better the Green vote will get

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