Advertiser Makin poll

The Adelaide Advertiser keeps cranking out those opinion polls, as it did in the lead-up to the state election last March. This time it’s a survey of 662 voters in the north-eastern Adelaide seat of Makin, retained by the Liberals in 2004 by just 0.9 per cent after a backlash against the sitting member, the now-retiring Trish Draper. Despite Liberal candidate Bob Day’s massive self-funded campaign, the poll shows a 54-46 lead for Labor’s Tony Zappia, who holds a primary vote lead of 45 per cent to 38 per cent. Further questions asked in the survey suggest that the loss of Draper’s personal vote has very little to do with the swing, despite recent reports the Liberals were begging her to reverse her decision to retire. The mystery of who actually conducts these Advertiser polls remains, to the best of my knowledge, unsolved.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

284 comments on “Advertiser Makin poll”

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  1. This seems to me to be the first shot in the ultimate – the abolition of the age pension.

    Abolition of the age pension would lose significant votes – it’s never going to happen.

    Raising the age pension age makes sense – people are working longer nowadays and super benefits can be accessed. Those who cannot work will have access to Centrelink benefits in other ways.

    The real age pension issue is the ridiculously high thresholds it has at the moment so that a fair few wealthy retirees have access to the pension, but nobody is going to have the guts to deal with that. Also, the current pension rules encourage people to hoard their personal wealth in their home when they’re younger (i.e the home does not count towards the Centrelink assets test). For the age pension, I think it should. Once again, I doubt they would be daring enough to ever do that.

  2. [On a final note, farewell senators Murray, Stott Despoja, Ray and Watson ]

    Murray is the biggest loss. It is unfortunate he never joined one of the majors.

  3. Ashley #22

    In order of road rage intensity

    1. Lord Dolly Downer
    2. The Rodent
    3. Captain Smirk
    4. Mad Monk
    5. Kevin of the dark side
    6. Shrek
    7. Pyno-Clean
    etc

  4. The only state I can see Labor/Greens picking up 4 senators is Tasmania.

    I think there’s an outside shot in NSW. It would be reliant on the ALP getting a decent surplus above 3 quotas though (the ALP and Greens have a direct preference deal in NSW), and Kerry Nettle campaigning effectively (pulp mill helps a little). Both may not happen.

  5. I can’t really see the benefit in Family First preferencing the Coalition in the Senate. Should the Coalition maintain control they will be irrelevant, will receive little to no media attention etc.

    It’d be far more benefitial to them in the long-term to preference the ALP above the Coalition. Should they have the balance of power they should be able to receive enough media attention to boost their vote. Currently I don’t think they’ll receive another senator at this election, leaving Senator Fielding to carry on as Leader and Whip of a party of one.

  6. [I think there’s an outside shot in NSW. It would be reliant on the ALP getting a decent surplus above 3 quotas though ]

    Is there usually a correlation between primary HOR votes and senate votes?

    If I had to guess now, I’d say Victoria is likely to have the highest Labor primary vote in the House, so shouldn’t that be the best chance of a mainland state returning 3 2 1 Labor, Coalition, Green?

  7. If I had to guess now, I’d say Victoria is likely to have the highest Labor primary vote in the House, so shouldn’t that be the best chance of a mainland state returning 3 2 1 Labor, Coalition, Green?

    I think that would depend on the preference deals in Vic. I know that there is a direct ALP/Greens deal in NSW, but the ALP in Vic may preference Family First or the Dems above the Greens and therefore any surplus would flow to those parties.

  8. Bushfire @ 135

    Technically, he’s probably right. It’s just that the mind goes into boggle overdrive when pondering what is sloshing around in his fevered brain. Abolish the states, send a gunboat to Tassie. Declare Canberra un-Australian. Er, sorry. Can’t help.

  9. You would have to think that family first have a chance of electing a senator from South Australia. Family first polled 5% in the legislative council at the 2006 state election, slightly more than the greens 4.3%. In reality, the numbers for both of these will probably be higher at the federal election, since 23.5% of first preference votes went to the no pokies grouping.

  10. [I can’t really see the benefit in Family First preferencing the Coalition in the Senate. Should the Coalition maintain control they will be irrelevant, will receive little to no media attention etc.]

    Yeah exactly. Why would they cut a preference deal to retain a coalition majority? That just excludes them from any influence of amending legislation.

    [ Currently I don’t think they’ll receive another senator at this election, leaving Senator Fielding to carry on as Leader and Whip of a party of one.]

    Well I’m wondering about conservative voters in S.A. (the base of Family First) who DON’T want the coalition retaining the balance of power. Maybe such voters will use Family First as like a right wing Democrat vote, parking their vote there rather than Labor or the Greens.

  11. [I think that would depend on the preference deals in Vic. I know that there is a direct ALP/Greens deal in NSW, but the ALP in Vic may preference Family First or the Dems above the Greens and therefore any surplus would flow to those parties.]

    I guess house of reps considerations come into it. Family First preferences in lower house seats would seem to be more valuable for Labor, because they get 75 – 85% of Greens preferences automatically. The cost of that may be giving F.F. their senate preferences, but it may not be that much.

    The mumble argument is that it would be easier negotiating with a block of greens votes in the senate, rather than trying to convince BOTH family first and the greens to agree on amendments.

    Does anyone know if the greens have party discipline? Or are they each allowed to vote however way they want, i.e. lik the Democrats?

  12. Why would conservative voters want the Liberal Party to lose control of the Senate? In the event that Labor are elected to government the Liberal Party controlling the Senate would be the best way to ensure that they can significantly control the government. If it looked like Labor had no chance of winning government I think it’d be far more likely that a protest vote would be lodged in the Senate, but since people are talking up the chances of a Labor win, I imagine this will dampen any additional swing in the Senate vote.

  13. The Greens can vote how they will. There is no such rule as with the ALP where the Member is expelled from the party if he or she votes on the other side. Also Liberals and Nationals can vote on the other side and do without being expelled. I’ve seen it happen a number of times.
    I’ve witnessed Labor members almost in tears having to vote for something they despise.
    The Right rules and the Left suffers.
    It’ll be like that in NSW if Eddie Obeid succeeds in getting the numbers for electricity privatisation.
    Minister Ian Macdonald who passionately opposes privatisation will vote for it!
    There’s no such thing as a conscience vote in the ALP unless specifically permitted.
    John Howard has now stayed beyond his 3 year term. He’s out of time.
    No doubt Labor will say full time plus 2 days, full time plus 3 days etc.
    The match should be over. Are we in injury time now?

  14. Coota Bulldog @ 12 – you’re having it both ways.

    You knock the polls for their small sample sizes for a single state in a single poll. Whilst at the same time you criticise them for their method of correcting for these small sample sizes – the aggregation.

    I don’t share your dismissiveness of the aggregate polls. Yes, it is a weakness that they’re combined from a number of different points in time. But as canberra boy correctly states, the consistency of this opinion polls over the course of the year overcomes this weakness. Voters don’t appear to be that volatile, so opinion polls taken 3-6 months ago remain a useful guide.

  15. With Cassandra’s calculator it is possible to work out what direct swing from Liberal to Labor would deliver a fourth seat in each state, assuming minor party votes stay the same. But that doesn’t help with the various permutations of minor party votes and preference flows. We won’t have a clear picture of what swings are required until we see the outcome of the preference negotiations currently underway.

    Re the game being played above: I don’t like any of ’em.

  16. [Why would conservative voters want the Liberal Party to lose control of the Senate?]

    I think there are some voters who may support a major in the house, but they don’t like the idea of governments having control of both. Some voters at this election may find it hard voting for Rudd instead of Howard, but they may compensate by not supporting Howard in the senate. So I’m expecting the Liberal & Nat senate vote to drop quite a lot, maybe even more than in the house.

    In 1996, the swing away from Labor was 6.2% in the House, but 7.4% in the senate.

    I think even some Liberal supporters now realise giving the government control of the senate was a dumb idea. There’s a reason why voters hadn’t done that for 30 odd years.

  18. *most liked: Peter Garrett

    *most hated: J “MG Tm” G

    *most childish: Arch Bevis

    *most annoying:Penny Wong

    *most dumb: Laurie Ferguson

    *most frightening: Anthony Albanese

    *most incompetent:Robert McClelland

    *biggest boofhead: Joel Fitzgibbon

  20. The problem however is that in the past the balance was held by the Dems, a party most moderate to conservative voters were fairly happy with even if they didn’t vote for them. They saw the Dems as a moderating influence on Labor governments. Now the balance will be held by the Greens, a party with far-left policies on most non-environmental issues. Moderate to conservative voters will see the Greens as dragging a Labor government to the left, and they will NOT be happy with the Greens holding the balance in the Senate – nor will many Labor voters for that matter – and this will tend to keep them loyal to the Coalition. All things considered, the replacement of the Dems by the Greens as the third force in Australian politics has worked to the Coalition’s advantage and has thus been a Bad Thing.

  21. CTEP @ 115,

    You believe the Coalition will win with a reduced majority. Which seats do you think Labor won’t win from the Coalition?

    At worst I see Labour not losing any of it’s existing seats and winning 14 seats off the Coalition. That would give Labor and the Coalition 74 seats each with the balance of power resting with 2 Independents. These 14 seats in this scenario are:

    1. Eden-Monaro (NSW)
    2. Dobell (NSW)
    3. Macquarie (NSW)
    4. Lindsay (NSW)
    5. Moreton (QLD)
    6. Bonner (QLD)
    7. Blair (QLD)
    8. Makin (SA)
    9. Wakefield (SA)
    10. Kingston (SA)
    11. Hasluck (WA)
    12. Bass (TAS)
    13. Braddon (TAS)
    14. Solomon (NT)

    However I think beyond this pessimistic scenario, Labor looks likely to win at least another 4 seats off the Coalition:

    15. Stirling (WA)
    16. Deakin (VIC)
    17. La Trobe (VIC)
    18. Herbert (QLD)

    That leaves Labor with 78 seats, the Coalition with 70, and 2 Independents: a modest 6-seat Labor majority in the House.

    However beyond those 18 seats it’ll actually be a bit of a struggle for Labor to get a more substantial majority. The most likely of these seats (ie. where there is at least a 45% chance of Labor winning) are:

    19. Bowman (QLD)
    20. Page (NSW)
    21. Longman (QLD)

    There are likely to be quite a few cliffhangers on election night (some of them currently safe Liberal seats) with the potential to fall to Labor such as Corangamite, Dickson, Wentworth, Sturt, Leichhardt, McMillan, Canning and (last but not least) Bennelong.

  23. The one good thing about the McLelland matter is that the Libs on their current form, are likely to turn it into an own goal. Their collective mistake throughout the year has been to descend into overblown rhetoric whenever they find/create/imagine there is an issue that could damage Rudd.

    With their “Bullshitterometers” on afterburner they tend to miss their mark, bounce off the wall of friendly media coverage and disappear up the clacker of public disapproval. The nett effect being more bad polls.

    Already I see and hear Downer and Costello “ramping” up the issue.

    Contrast their approach with that of Tony Burke and the African refugee issue. Burke didn’t get stuck in to Andrews because of racism. Rather , Andrews’ incompetence at being unable to properly articulate the Policy.
    Score that one a win to Labor.

  24. Most loathed: Phillip Ruddock
    Most embarassing: Alexander Downer
    Most self-serving: John Howard
    Least likely to require a box when batting: Peter Costello

  25. I worked with Penny Wong in the NSW Parliament. She is very smart and quite charming. I never found her annoying. She will make a very good minister, believe me. She’s very good at negotiating.

  26. http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/592

    Hang on, hang on. The tiser puts the Libs in front in Boothby, but we need to remember the tiser screwed up at the state election.

    THEN the tiser puts Labor in front in Makin and they’re all smart?

    Can we have some consistency here please? Is the tiser a reliable polling source or not? If it is reliable, we should accept the Libs are up in Boothby. If not, then this poll is only useful for today’s fish and chips.

  27. [All things considered, the replacement of the Dems by the Greens as the third force in Australian politics has worked to the Coalition’s advantage and has thus been a Bad Thing.]

    That’s why I think those voters will prefer parking their vote with Family First. Sure Fielding USUALLY votes with the coalition, but it seems he will vote with Labor on the new industrial relations system, whereas the Greens will try to get Labor to go back to pre Keating.

    Family First are really just social conservatives. A lot of their economic policies seem closer to Labor than Liberal.

  28. All you SA pundits should put Mayo on the list, Lord Downer dropped another clanger in the local rag ( The Courier) last week where he categorised all those who didn’t vote for him last time as ferrels and the like, prompting a tirade of angry letters this week.
    Mayo sits on a 13.6% margin and a changing demographic, a more serious ALP candidate this time around and the particularly rabid Downer could very well swing it.
    Downers attack dog role (more like a poodle on LSD) would not be going down well in the leafy suburbs, orchardists angry about bio security issues and his strong identification with the Iraq war and climate change denial will all aggregate to give a higher than average swing.
    I predict that if the Advertiser does a poll on Mayo it will put it on a knife edge.

  29. Re: (8) and (13) above, on the subject of O’Connor, Labor this morning announced that it would break up the wheat export monopoly. This AWB monopoly has been one of Wilson Tuckey’s pet hates, perhaps reflecting the sentiments of his wheatbelt constituents. Could this policy, combined with the newly minted national fame of Dom Rose, the 20 year old Labor candidate, for denouncing Rudd, tongue-in-cheek, as a “filthy Liberal”, make this contest at least a little bit intriguing?

  30. [All you SA pundits should put Mayo on the list,]

    I just can’t see it happening. Surely the ALP would be pumping big bucks into Sturt and Boothby first.

    One of the Fairfax papers said that Downer is going to quit parliament if Rudd wins. There couldn’t be any better demonstration of how much Downer hates, and is jelous of Rudd.

  31. [Re: (8) and (13) above, on the subject of O’Connor, Labor this morning announced that it would break up the wheat export monopoly. This AWB monopoly has been one of Wilson Tuckey’s pet hates, perhaps reflecting the sentiments of his wheatbelt constituents. ]

    Well, it is rather funny that this is a policy only Labor could adopt. The National Party would never let the Liberals do it.

  32. M F T (178) I salivate at the prospect you suggest. But really, 13.6% is a big margin. Dolly would have to shoot himself in both feet. “Poodle on LSD” is a great line.

  33. An extremely smart Chinese lesbian – of course conservatives hate her. She is all their nightmares come true. She has enormous ability and will go far. A pity she’s in the left, and in the Senate.

    Kiwi, I agree that Labor is currently ahead in the 14 seats on your A list. I’m certain you can add Herbert to that, and probably La Trobe too.

  34. Shows On

    I would not assume Dobell as a given.

    Labor candidate is the original colorless union boss / apparatchik in a seat chockers with retirees who have been enjoying tax free super since 1 July.

    State Labor is on the nose big time on the central coast too!

  35. “Does anyone know if the greens have party discipline?”

    Federal Green MPs are expected to follow the decisions of the Federal Party Room. There’s no automatic discipline if they vote differently, but they are to tell the Party Room in advance and explain their reasons.

    I’m not quoting chapter and verse, but that’s the gist of it. State parties have their own rules which may be different.

    d

  36. [Federal Green MPs are expected to follow the decisions of the Federal Party Room. There’s no automatic discipline if they vote differently, but they are to tell the Party Room in advance and explain their reasons.]

    So it is essentially the Liberal party variant? They aren’t meant to cross the floor, they can, but if they do, their preselection will be up for serious review next time round? 😛

  37. Kiwi, I think your 14 seats are mostly fine.

    However I’d argue a few of them could quite possibly stick Liberal, namely Hasluck and Solomon. Further, I think Labor will quite possibly lose Cowan.

    Of course, you’re right. It looks good for Labor at the moment. Still, I won’t believe it ’til election night.

  38. Penny Wong is up there with my favourites too. What’s with all of this new talent being of the left Adam? There ain’t gonna be a revolt is there?

  39. Adam,

    What is far left wing in Australia today though? Of course the greens are like social democratic left and socially progressive, cause dominant Right labor is 2nd party of right…….but are there policies really far left or is it because the paradims have moved so much further to the Right
    It appears to me that the paradigms here on only 2nd to the US right now with a far right IR policy – if you look at the greens schools policy, what they say is standard fare for most western countries which do not fund private schools, unless they charge the same rate as private school to ensure equity of access……

  40. ESJ @ 168

    If Anthony Albanese is the most frightening, then I’m convinced that Labor has a far better team than the Coalition. :smiley:

    Is this the photo you are looking for (#134)?

  43. Wouldnt it be ironic if Labor just missed out because of unpalatable union hacks in Dobell and Deakin and because KR couldnt crack 6% in QLD?

    eg

    3 seats in SA
    2 seats in TAS
    1 seat in NT
    1 seat in VIC
    1 seat in WA
    2 seats in QLD
    3 seats in NSW

    Not impossible comrades.

  45. Pancho, I’m delighted to see the left bringing new talent into Caucus, such as Wong, Combet and Melissa Parke. I’ve never disputed the talent of people like Gillard, Tanner, and, yes, Albanese, despite his rather dour parliamentary manner. I think however the right is bringing even more talent to Caucus – Burke and Bowen last time, Shorten, Marles, Dreyfus and Feeney from Victoria alone this time.

    Bird, I was discussing how conservative voters see the Senate election. I’ve no doubt they will be more reluctant to see the Greens holding the balance than they would have been to see the Dems doing so.

  46. Does anyone know what Marky Mark Latham is up to? It still surprises me that he hasn’t made any further public comment since Mr. Rudd became leader… I have this horror vision of Mr. Latham being re-employed as a columnist for Newscorp writing pieces criticising Labor.

  47. Not impossible Edward, but how likely would you say it is?

    Plus, it wouldn’t really be a good case of irony. Unless you want to explain how exactly it is ironic.

    Also, do you think most people even know who their member is, let alone the occupation of the opposing candidate?

  48. I think perhaps the biggest hindrance to what should be a stellar career for Penny Wong is the fact that it seems ok to refer to her as a Chinese lesbian rather than a Senator from South Australia. I’ve never been a big fan of political correctness, but geez! If nobody else sees a problem with this, I’ll happily accept an across the board rule stating that all members of Federal Parliament should be described on the basis of ethnicity and sexual orientation.

  50. [Does anyone know what Marky Mark Latham is up to? It still surprises me that he hasn’t made any further public comment since Mr. Rudd became leader… I have this horror vision of Mr. Latham being re-employed as a columnist for Newscorp writing pieces criticising Labor.]

    I believe he sold his house in the burbs, and moved out somewhere to rural NSW.

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