ACNielsen: 56-44

Tasmanian reader Blackbird informs us that according to the ABC news (which goes to air earlier in Tasmania because daylight saving has already begun there), tomorrow’s ACNielsen poll will show Labor with a two-party lead of 56-44, down from 57-43 last month. More details to follow.

UPDATE: Labor’s primary vote is down two points from last month to 47 per cent, while the Coalition is up one to 40 per cent. There were further attitudinal questions which you can read all about at The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

615 comments on “ACNielsen: 56-44”

Comments Page 12 of 13
1 11 12 13
  1. Noocat, there was an editorial in “The Age” on the weekend asking that Howard call the election, ending with a line about “the tumbrels” waiting, about which I laughed, knowing full well it ain’t the paper of choice across a lot of the electorate.
    gusface, keep that goin’, though you’ll have to wait for next week for Newspoll.
    I’ve forgotten (sorry) who it was earlier in the thread complaining about Chris Uhlmann sounding like a Lib. Party spokesperson, I have thought that for some time. There really has been this shift in how a number of ABC journos/broadcasters behave towards pollies of the major parties.
    Last week, Jon Faine, for whom I usually have a lot of respect, in relation to asking hard questions and not engaging in sycophantic behaviour, really got up my nose when interviewing Tony Burke about the Andrews belated spin on the decision to alter the cap on African refugees, and just simply talked over him, with the same rubbish line. I truly think that the stacking of the ABC Board is having real effect in editorial policy. It now seems to be the case that the Fairfax Press is more balanced than the ABC.

  2. The plan may be to give Costello another chance to maul Rudd in parliament. The treasurer’s last performance seemed to froth up the front bench goon show to a satisfactory extent (lead by McGauran, of course). Don’t know how the snarling, bullying, hate-fuelled baying over the dispatch box will play in mums-and-dads’ land though – possibly not at all.

  3. Charles the lib party will reform and come back as a viable alternative again. At the moment the extreme right gets its power from the federal MP’s, vote those out and the extreme right loses it’s power.

    As many have said we need a strong opposition to promote strong government, it would not do any good to have weak lib oppositions state and federally.

    Iemma should have been voted out last election and probably will at the next if the lib party reforms.

    A term or two of the libs is a good dose for the community, it encourages and forces labor to get its act together and reminds people why they don’t vote liberal more often.

  4. “It short I think the Liberals are going to suffer under the extreme right as labor did under the extreme left for 50 years.”

    It looks that way. There is a strong possibility that the extreme Right will become the new loony lot and possibly even more derided over time than the Left has over the past twenty or thirty years. In fact, it seems to be happening now. They are the new political group who are increasingly losing touch with the reality of today’s world.

    Reading Janet Albrechtsen’s articles in the Government Gazette usually provides a very clear case of this, especially when juxtaposed with her reader’s comments. It’s hilarious.

    But more seriously, even if the Liberal Party won this coming election, the process of being hijacked by the extreme Right will continue and therefore thrust it even further into la-la-land. It is becoming increasingly irrelevant to mainstream ideals. And if they lose, then the next 10 to 15 years could be VERY painful, just as it has been for the state parliamentary parties, which incidentally, are still not showing any signs of reforming themselves to reclaim the middle ground. Just woeful.

  5. just read in The Sun that an Australian soldier has been killed by a roadside bomb in Afghanistan.

    if true, whats the bet our opportunistic PM quickly now calls the election.

    The odious images of him and the fallen soldiers returning coffin and the deeply caring Leader at the funeral is right up his alley.

    he will see this as a great political opportunity, especially as it was in afghanistan and not iraq.

  6. “Noocat, there was an editorial in “The Age” on the weekend asking that Howard call the election, ending with a line about “the tumbrels” waiting…”

    Harry, The Age is an interesting case, I think. I haven’t actually paid close attention, but I don’t recall much government advertising in The Age. There is definitely a LOT in the News Ltd. papers. Apart from its usual progressive slant, The Age might also feel a little more independent in its criticism of Howard if it is not receiving much in the way of cash from the government.

  7. BrissyRod@559:

    I can see it now – ceramic mugs with the words “I’m a mug for Rudd”

    🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

    Five Stars

  8. Arbie Jay Says:
    October 8th, 2007 at 7:50 pm

    A term or two of the libs is a good dose for the community, it encourages and forces labor to get its act together and reminds people why they don’t vote liberal more often.

    I once took the view the labor party was good at building social capital and the Liberal party good at building physical capital.

    In my view this Liberal government has destroyed social capital and has not been particularly good at building physical capital. I think we have been cheated this time around.

    I hope your right about the rebuild.

  9. 547
    William Bowe Says:
    October 8th, 2007 at 7:39 pm
    Attempts to reactivate the r#### debate are now being chopped.
    …….
    bravo!

  10. #564

    The biggest handle being the one positioned over the mouth of the mug, for the exclusive use of The Eternal PM currently being greenhouse gassed a few thousand metres above earth.

  11. Noocat, ”The Age” has certainly taken the governent’s (our) money for advertising, whether it’s as much as News Ltd., I wouldn’t know, but there’s been whole page blurbs, sometimes many of them. More worrying for me is the shift I’ve referred to elsewhere about the ABC. I’ve sent complaints, but get very unsatisfactory replies along the lines of “You’re input is important to us” blah, blah, blah. Never a response to the substantive complaint, and I’m always very specific about why.

  12. re 560:
    [AN Australian soldier may have been killed in action after a roadside bomb hit an Australian vehicle in Afghanistan.

    The bomb exploded on the side of a road as armoured vehicles of Australian security contingent guarding the Reconstruction Task Force based at Tarin Kowt in Oruzgan Province passed by.

    ABC radio has reported a number of Australian soldiers have been injured in the blast.

    The soldier would be the first Australian to die from direct enemy action in the military commitment in either Afghanistan or Iraq.]

    http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22551765-5005361,00.html

  13. I doubt a death in Afghanistan will have any political consequence, since the Afghanistan commitment has bipartisan support, and indeed Labor wants to increase it. A death in Iraq would be a different matter.

  14. Chris Uhlman was doing a morning show on 666 ABC in Canberra a few years ago. Not especially entertaining – nor was he particularly astute. His big plus was that he was softly rightwing – difficult for him to be hard right in Canberra! It disappointed me that he’d been made ‘chief political correspondant’ but didn’t surprise me. He won’t last long should the ALP win the next election. ABC radio hasn’t had a decent political reporter for years. There was that amusing phase with Cathy McGrath (whatever happened to her?) and her embarrassing interviews with John Howard… he’d talk right over her.

  15. 569
    Harry ‘Snapper’ Organs Says:
    October 8th, 2007 at 8:09 pm

    More worrying for me is the shift I’ve referred to elsewhere about the ABC.

    My biggest complaint is many if the radio shows on 774 have been reduced to drivel. The ABC is a public broadcaster, it is supposed to inform, if I want drivel I can turn to a commercial station.

  16. Harry, as I said, I haven’t paid close attention, so wasn’t confident about my observations with respect to The Age and government advertising. I do think that News Ltd have probably taken the biggest share though along with the commercial TV stations.

    I have also been very concerned about the ABC. Like you, I have complained on a few occasions, but only to receive very condescending replies that basically suggest that any perceived bias is my fault and has nothing to do with them. Sure, sometimes I might be over-interpreting the way they portray a news item, but even so, there has definitely been a general shift in the editorial stance at the ABC, and it can only be due to Howard’s meddling with the ABC’s board of directors. It’s shameful.

    I remember some months ago, Rudd saying that he would introduce a system in which the ABC becomes much more independent of the government of the day. I hope he keeps that promise.

  17. [My biggest complaint is many if the radio shows on 774 have been reduced to drivel. The ABC is a public broadcaster, it is supposed to inform, if I want drivel I can turn to a commercial station.]

    You will find that Local Radio nationally has been dumbed down, and is as banal as what is served up on Southern Cross, but without the ads (well the breaks on the ABC are for themselves and not flogging Nature B).

    Even the music is programed nationally and is sent on custom burnt CD’s. The various ABC’s even sold off by tender the bulk of their Vinyl library as well.

  18. ‘Matt Price diagnosed with “several brain tumours”, to undergo surgery on Wednesday.’

    Oh no. That’s terrible. Let’s hope they’re benign.

    I don’t often agree with Matt Price’s political opinions, but there is something very endearing about the larrikin in him. I’d miss his political input if this took him out of journalism (or worse).

  19. adam,

    labor may be bi-partisan on afghanistan, but this is perfect JWH imagery for him to use on the eve of the election. it won’t help him win but will shore up the base a bit. especially the elderly.

    Howard will milk the imagery of this. that sounds terrible. but it is true.

  20. #
    572
    John Rocket Says:
    October 8th, 2007 at 8:18 pm

    Cathy McGrath (whatever happened to her?) and her embarrassing interviews with John Howard… he’d talk right over her.

    John Howard talks over John Faine and he is no softy. I have concluded it is in the Liberal media training manual. Ignore the presenter and talk what you want to talk about.

  21. 571
    Adam Says:
    October 8th, 2007 at 8:17 pm
    I doubt a death in Afghanistan will have any political consequence, since the Afghanistan commitment has bipartisan support, and indeed Labor wants to increase it. A death in Iraq would be a different matter.

    Howard has to be careful how he plays it. Anything that looks like he is trying to win votes will surely backfire. Certain sections of the media may not let him get away with trading on the death of a soldier for personal political gain.

  22. “Pleeeze no, not another Muslims vs. Christians debate. I will spontaneously combust.”

    Couldn’t imagine you going out with a wimper, Monica.
    Will you be leaving any of your organs to science?

  23. Thanks for your responses about the ABC. I also recall something from Rudd about bi-partisan appointments to significant Boards. First, they’ve got to get in, and I still have this horrible feeling, despite the polls. I know it’s somewhat neurotic, but this regime has gone on for so long, and done so much damage to our social fabric, I wait for election night , and hopefully “the tumbrels”.
    Best wishes to Matt Price if any can pass this along. Many of us will know the path.

  24. Dead bodies coming home from either Afghanistan or Iraq will remind voters of Iraq, no matter where they come from. If Howard tries to wrap himself in the flag it will fail dismally.

  25. If an Australian soldier has been killed in Afghanistan, I hope for the sake of the poor chap and his family that the ADF sub-contractor brings home the body of the correct individual; and not the remains of some poor unknown a la Jake Kovco.

  26. My thoughts are with Matt Price and family…

    I love reading his thoughts, but over the last few years I’ve understood more of him from Insiders than from his written words

    Each year the statistical facts show improvement in treatment and understanding of tumours, each year….

  27. It seems Mr Quin has a history of quitting parties over differences.

    [BEN Quin, who quit the Liberal Party to run as an Independent in the Tasmanian seat of Lyons over the Gunns pulp mill decision, has a history of leaving the party in protest.

    Mr Quin was challenging Labor MP Dick Adams for the seat, which is adjacent to the electorate of Bass, where the $1.7 billion mill is set to be built.

    He resigned at an electorate meeting on Saturday after Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull announced he’d given the mill the go-ahead.

    Mr Quin tonight admitted he quit the party several years ago and for a time was a member of The Greens for a year, although he said he was not an active member.]

    http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22552995-5005361,00.html

  28. # 595 – Hey lom…Paul Osborne was a front row forward for the Canberra Raiders who then turned his sights on politics. His was of the fundamentalist conservative variety, as I recall.

  29. Dario,

    All the commercial networks showed security footage of a fight in a bottle shop and claimed it was “proof” of Sudanese gang violence but when Media Watch went through the footage methodically it was obvious none of the people doing the fighting were Sudanese, they were mainly Pacific Islanders. So much for the proof of Sudanese gangs taking over the place. Guess they all look alike to the commercial networks.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 12 of 13
1 11 12 13