Newspoll: 56-44

Newspoll has been sprung on us a day early, showing Labor’s two-party lead widening to 56-44 from 55-45 a fortnight ago. Labor’s primary vote is up from 47 per cent to 48 per cent, and the Coalition’s is down from 41 per cent to 39 per cent. Kevin Rudd has taken a slight hit on his satisfaction rating, down from 65 per cent to 62 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

570 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44”

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  1. Adam,

    You seem to want to persist with your wilful misunderstanding of Possum’s analysis. What Possum’s analysis says is that there is a higher swing to Labor in the nominal Liberal safe seats.

    The question is Why?

    No doubt IR, generational change and high interest rates are affecting the vote. However, on the Newspolls to date between 20-25% of people who voted Liberal last time are moving to Labor.

    Abbott and Costello are regarded as the right wing death eaters of the current Government. Perhaps, the true “Menzies” type Liberals are revolting against the hard right ideologues.

    Issues such Iraq, Aboriginal reconciliation, David Hicks, Constitutional Reform etc are playing out. Add in things like AWB, the Tampa etc. and you can see there is a shopping trolley full of issues for traditional Liberals to be hot and bothered about.

  2. It sure don’t look like an election’s going to be called today. That means 3 Nov is crossed off the list of possible dates, and the election will now take place after the RBA decision on interest rates. The govt had better hope that the Oct 24 ABS figures don’t show a big inflation jump, as has been mooted.

  3. BrissyRod (18) – Will be 24th Nov now for certain (Costello has let the cat out of the bag) – Parliament will not sit again before the election. Therefore JH must call sometime within the next 2 weeks. He will want to have a long campaign to give him time to wear down KR – as he sees it, but he won’t want to go too long as this may put voters off. Therefore he will almost certainly call the election at the end of next week – for a six-week campaign and an election to be held on the 24th Nov.

  5. Why GG? There are a lot of moderate liberal people in Liberal seats who are not happy with John Howard or the direction he has taken Australia.
    They are concerned about the big issues such as global warming. These people are thinkers and think before they vbote. They know we need a new direction and can only get that by not voting Liberal.

  6. Howard is so very scared, so so very scared. He knows that he world is crumbling and that he will go down as the leader who killed the Libs, no real loss, but hopefully he will join the club of PMs to lose their seat.

    We don’t need to hope anymore just make it a reality.

    Call the election, be a man rodent.

  7. has anyone got any ideas of what the ramifications would be here if Bush does bomb Iran, those ive spoken to has been split in two camps, either it will frighten the voters back to Howard– fear of terrorists and a nuclear war etc, or the opposite, that the populace will riot if he tries to get us embroiled in another Bush war.

  8. As a small l Liberal who used to support Howard I would say that the reasons many former Liberal voters are willing to change their vote is for the following reasons, in no particular order:

    – Work Choices ( It just went too far. The changes he originally proposed prior to the election were OK, but once he got the Senate he changed )

    – Iraq or more accurately following America no matter where.

    – Climate Change ( I am constantly amazed how far behind the government’s attitude is on this issue compared even to that of big business )

    – Rudd ( probably the most conservative Labor leader in a very long time )

  10. 302
    Lord D Says:
    October 1st, 2007 at 4:54 pm
    It sure don’t look like an election’s going to be called today. That means 3 Nov is crossed off the list of possible dates, and the election will now take place after the RBA decision on interest rates. The govt had better hope that the Oct 24 ABS figures don’t show a big inflation jump, as has been mooted.

    Lord D,

    I don’t know who buys the groceries and/or keeps the checking ledger at your house (so the person who is on top of grocery pricing), but at our house, I do. I can assure you that inflation will be *up* there as prices aren’t coming down on anything that I buy for my family :(.

  11. Judy, the Aus public at large doesn’t like Bush very much; Howard supporting Bush if he bombed Iran would not go down very well. We just don’t trust anything Bush does anymore.

  12. I don’t think the ‘small l’ liberal vote is what’s causing the Coalition’s imminent defeat. Hicks, Iraq, environment, Tampa, chidlren overboard and all of the other ‘small l’ issues existed in 2004, yet we saw an overall swing away from Labor. Surely Latham could not have been that repulsive? And some of these issues existed as early as 2001. Where were Australia’s ‘small l’ liberals when Howard was coopting Hanson supporters, and going down the path of tin-pot patriotism and bigotry?

    I’d say the big difference now is Workchoices. It’s really saying something about how the Coalition has misjudged the electorate completely, to the point that they’re pulling their own propaganda ads. If people have seen WC as the nasty piece of legislative work that it is, this may colour their perceptions of Howards’ other supposed good deeds.

  13. 307
    judy Says:
    October 1st, 2007 at 5:05 pm
    has anyone got any ideas of what the ramifications would be here if Bush does bomb Iran, those ive spoken to has been split in two camps, either it will frighten the voters back to Howard– fear of terrorists and a nuclear war etc, or the opposite, that the populace will riot if he tries to get us embroiled in another Bush war.

    Judy, it won’t make one bit of difference. This election will be decided on the issues that are already on the table (i.e work choices, interest rates, etc.). Nothing Bush can do will change our domestic situation so he can’t make those issues go away for John Howard.

  14. [She said you should have handed over a year ago.]

    I thought when Latham lost that Costello would be P.M. and that would refresh the government, and allow them to win this year. I thought the loss in 2004 was so bad that Labor was best to focus on 2010 as their next big chance.

    I can’t believe how lucky we are that Howard didn’t let that happen. It is as if he wanted people to think the government was old and worn out.

    [No doubt IR, generational change and high interest rates are affecting the vote.]

    4 or 5 months ago The Oz published a survey showing that people on HIGH incomes were very concerned about WorkChoices because they didn’t think it was fair to people on low incomes. Perhaps this is partly a) worrying that their children may be low or middle income earners, and b) a certain sense of egalitarianism that people near the bottom of the ladder deserve a fair go.

    Either way, the fact people on high and very high incomes were some of the most concerned with WorkChoices possibly plays into the fact safe Liberal seats are supposedly suffering swings in double figures. Whereas the marginals are ‘only’ suffering 6 – 8% swings (which since they are marginals is enough for the government to lose nearly all of them!)

    I still can’t beleive that Labor would probably win if they get 51% 2pp on all of the mainland states. Even if there is no movement at all in the territories and Tasmania. That alone demonstrates how bad a position the government is in.

  15. Adam, are you being deliberately obstinate? I find it staggering that a smart fellow like yourself cannot understand what Possum’s approach is intended to show.

    Possum’s analysis is a more sophisticated version of the ‘uniform swing’. Nothing more, nothing less. If the Newspoll data suggests that Warringah and Kooyong would fall and you find this unimaginable, then your issue is with the Newspoll data. Not Possum.

  16. Ten possible reasons why the swing to Labor may be stronger in safe coalition seats:

    1. Members in marginal seats work harder for their constituents, and probably have a higher profile.

    2. Some regional coalition seats are hit by drought and water shortages, and voters there are unhappy with all governments.

    3. Housing costs may not be as big a concern in some safe city coalition seats, where most people own their own homes.

    4. Rudd’s stress on education and training may be appealing to coalition voters, along with his diplomatic and language skills.

    5. The “time for a change” argument may be biting in safe seats, whereas those in mortgage belt seats may be scared of change, in case it makes things worse (this worked for Keating against Hewson).

    6. Housing costs are out of control in selected regional areas, including mining towns (like WA and central Qld) and sea change areas like mid-north NSW coast, Gold and Sunshine Coast/Hervey Bay.

    7. The “bandwagon effect”, where if people think Labor will win easily, they want to be known to have backed the right horse. However, bandwagon effects, as told to pollsters, can dissipate on polling day.

    8. More migrants (eg professional Indian, Chinese and their private school/uni-educated children moving into wealthy areas, impressed by Rudd, and not impressed by Howard’s attitude to refugees and multiculturalism.

    9. Better Labor candidates than previously in some fairly safe coalition seats, while the Liberals have been very slow to choose candidates for some safe Labor seats.

    10. Hospitals and dental health are huge issues, which will have the strongest impact in regional areas, and in those with a high percentage of older voters. Many of these seats are safe for the coalition.

    I’m just guessing though…

  17. What if the entire press gallery is wrong, and the polls don’t narrow after the election is called? It could indeed get even worse for the Rodent.

  18. I didn’t say who or what I had an issue with. I asked Growler how much he wanted to wager on Labor winning any one of Warringah, Wannon or Kooyong. I’ll ask you the same question. How does $1000 sound for starters? If neither of you is willing to put your money where your typing finger is, I suggest you cease casting nasturtiums in my direction.

  19. What odds that if the rodent leads the libs to a massive defeat that Costello and others, if they win their seats, will quit?

  20. Adam, I’m glad that you have $1,000 to stake on a squabble on the internet, but I do not.

    Also, I wasn’t casting any edible plants in your direction (I had to look up the definition of ‘nasturtium’ and was quite befuddled by the result). I’m just confused as to why you’ve been flogging this horse for the past couple of days. Possum – nor anyone else to my knowledge – isn’t predicting those seats will fall. He’s just showing us that Newspoll suggests that those seats may fall. If you don’t believe Newspoll that’s your prerogative, but please stop being so pugnacious about it.

  21. Charles

    “Well be a little bit careful, just as the liberal party should have kept it’s left to keep a broad base the labor party needs to keep it’s left, granted it less important than the liberal left as the liberal left and labor right are pretty much in the center and the center is where the votes are at.”

    That’s as clear as mud. But I do agree that Labor is left in the political spectrum. We don’t have a “center” in Australia, to my knowledge.

    Message to Glen: Glen. It’s – a contraction of it is – always wise to buy more than one page of a dictionary. The H entries are extremely useful and a valuable tool in the expression of one’s thoughts and fears. Those looking to expand their word knowledge usually do a word a day. You will have to buy more pages. Sorry. One word a month – hubris – is simply, not good enough. 1 out of 10. Your thoughts are welcome.

  22. im amazed! i just got a reply to a email i sent to my local sitting member(alex somalay, lib. fairfax) in which i asked who would he support if there is a leadership spill re. howard/costello?
    Answer was he his 100% behind Howard and their will be no spill under any terms before the next election.
    Not amazed at the answer just that he replied as i have sent him emails before and never received a reply.
    must be a election year i think!

  23. Richard @305. I agree that climate change is another issue in the mix.

    Adam, I never bet on anything that talks.

  26. libsrok

    I think it probably was someone else, I don’t think Alex (Who) Somlyay has worked out the world wide webby broadbeany thingo inter-web work yet. 🙂

  27. ruawake
    you may be right the reply was snail mail govt.heading and all.
    But a real signature not a stamp though i guess a staffer could have done that.

  28. More Pork. The local Liberal candidate, Charlie McKillop and the outgoing member, Warren Entsch announced yesterday $8.3 millon for two linear accelerators in an extension of Cairns Base Hospital Radiation Oncology.
    This is a much needed pork barrelling so I hope the Labor candidate matches it. Mind you the hospital will need double the money just to construct the bunkers.

  31. #270 ruawake All you have given me is a statement that says it is false. Nothing in there to debunk what was published on the front page of the Daily Mail. Evidence would be handy.

  33. I’m a South Australian and I know that this is going back to a previous thread but of you South Aussies out there, how many think that Boothby will fall? Anybody heard anything apart from the anti-Cornes publicity in the press? On the swing that is supposed to occurring in S.A. Nicole Cornes should be a shoe-in but some reports suggest that Mia Handshin in Sturt has a greater chance of winning despite the bigger swing required (and would’nt that be a great result to see Christopher Pain in the a*se fall on his sword)

  34. Re 322,

    Libsrock, speaking of leadership spills and who will people vote for, my member here in Werriwa also emailed me when the Beazely/Rudd spill came down late last year. He made it plain that he was voting for Beazely. I think now that he is glad that he wasn’t on the winning side ;-D …..

  35. You should always keep yourself well hubricated, especially in this weather.

    I think it’s going to be a big shock for Hugh Zochling when he learns that he is going to win Warringah. He is the only Labor candidate who hasn’t put his photo and biography up on the ALP website. Without disrespect, he is the tokenest of token candidates. I hope he hasn’t made any travel plans for next year.

  37. 332
    Chris B Says:
    October 1st, 2007 at 5:55 pm
    Evidence to support my statement about Utah. The people from Utah that come door knocking, all over Australia.

    Chris, if it were possible to vote for the Mormons in the Aussie political system, if hypothetically they had a party here, I would put them way down on the bottom along with Family First and the Libs. The Mormons are the worst lot you can ever imagine, I have read some things about their practices and so on that would raise the hair on your head. Probably right up there with Tom Cruise’s Scientology. Mormons are down right nasty if you are at all centrist or left inclined. In fact, politically, they are probably *right* of the religioius right in the south and south east.

  38. 308
    paul k Says:
    October 1st, 2007 at 5:07 pm
    ………I would say that the reasons many former Liberal voters are willing to change their vote is for the following reasons, in no particular order: –
    Work Choices ( It just went too far. The changes he originally proposed prior to the election were OK, but once he got the Senate he change ) –

    Iraq or more accurately following America no matter where.

    Climate Change ( I am constantly amazed how far behind the government’s attitude is on this issue compared even to that of big business ) – Rudd ( probably the most conservative Labor leader in a very long time )

    Maybe not one reasons but a number of events that tested the Govts credibility, honesty and purpose in the punters mind. WorkChoices or Hicks created the moment of awakening and, as with all love when it ends, those things you used to love are now things you hate.

    The rose coloured glasses are off and Iraq, WC, Bribery, Climate Change denial, Hicks, Tampa, Children Overboard, refugee detention etc now define the govt and, it is defined as cynical, self-serving, under-hand, not trustworthy and not interested in anything apart from its own power – or something like that.

    Given that state of affairs is it any wonder that negative campaigning and smears have backfired and instead only confirmed to the punter the dubious nature of this Govt.

  39. Adam at 292

    I’ve never seen anyone miss the same point so many times.

    If a poll says 56/44 – do you take the result literally, declare it a waste of time and state that it cant possibly be true?

    If a 6 poll sequence says 56/44 or 57/43 – do you take the result literally, declare it a waste of time and state that they cant be true?

    But should those poll results actually be transfered into a seat by seat basis, using nothing more than the data itself – suddenly, you feel the need to take it literally?

    Good grief.

  40. Sounds like a Wrestling Promoters Dream.

    The “Mad Monk” versus “The Huge Zochling”.

    Two men in a Canberra Cage. Only one will survive. The rules are, there are no rules.

  41. Adam,
    I think you are probably right about the 3 seats concerned…… however
    I’m willing to have a bet with you which reflects the chance approx
    10/1 ie I’ll bet $20 if you win you get $20 if I win I get $200
    thanks
    Mick

  42. Adam appears to be morphing into Glenn. His continued SOL over Possums analysis is just likes Glenn’s thing about the National’s vote in opinion polls.

    No matter how many times it is explained it is never accepted.

  45. According to the Mad Monk Abbott: he’s sick of the polls, they’re boring.
    If your doom is predicted week after week repeatedly, yeah, I expect you’d get a little bored LOL
    It’s a pity there isn’t a decent Independent running in Warringah against Abbott.

  49. 348,

    Chris, I sent you details to read a book about them if you like, check your private email as time permits. It is the book that opened my eyes.

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