Today’s Roy Morgan poll suggests that voters have, er, reacted sympathetically to Kevin Rudd’s tax gaffe. Or perhaps been driven insane by the onslaught of government advertising on television. Either way, they’ve published a headline figure of 54 per cent for Labor’s primary vote, which seems to have been enough to have caused their server to crash. More details as they come to hand.
UPDATE: Crikey email reports a two-party split of 60.5-39.5. The Coalition primary vote is down from 39.5 per cent to 36 per cent (for those interested, the Nationals vote is down from 3 per cent to 2.5 per cent). Labor’s primary vote in the previous survey was 49.5 per cent. This was a face-to-face survey with a sample of 972.
Will, please do. I have the feeling that their IT is run by a narcoleptic mouse.
So Dam is just a distant cousin?
Galaxy and Newspoll have a better track record CTEP…and despite arguing which poll is more credible it doesnt really matter not if you are more than 20 points down…
I agree Morgan is the least reliable of the major polls but there could be several reasons for this poll besides advertising. I will suggest another.
If that other political barometer – speaking to taxi drivers – is anything to go by, I think the latest pork barrell (drought aid) is one particularly likely to worsen the Liberal’s situation. It has gone down like a lead balloon, with much sarcastic comment on “whinging farmers”.
While nobody disputes drought is real, we are now seeing billions spent each year propping up farming in some areas that have no long term future. Why? The whole agricultural sector is only 3% of GDP. We export 80% of our agricultural produce, but the flip side of that is that we need only grow 1/5 of current agriculture to feed ourselves. Yes many farms are struggling, and will go under without a bailout. Yet businesses in our cities go broke all the time (eg auto part manufacturers) and often their employees do not even receive their earnt legal entitlements. Ever heard of someone demanding to “leave the factory line with dignity”?
Hey people – check out this article over at the ABC election website. Mumble gets a nod, but the whole thing is an interesting read.
Glen I’d be happy to see evidence from you as to Galaxy and Newspoll having a better track record as far as primary votes are concerned. If you can show an election-to-election polling company that has consistently got very close to the actual result I’ll be happy to see it.
How new is Galaxy anyhow?
Re Alpal @ 88
“… the Liberal’s private polling… Their polling does not match the published polls. They are not as pessimistic as I thought they would be”
How can their polls be substantively different from the others. Is their polling methodology different?
Galaxy i believe was closest to the 2004 result…but i wouldnt be asking me for lots of examples i dont have the figures on my Brian or William im sure would.
Now, why didn’t the hyperlink work? Here’s the url…
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/09/27/2045115.htm?site=elections/federal/2007
Can anyone enlighten me why
Seems to me that there is another election calculator other than Anthony Green’s? His only allows swings of 10%. I am not on my usual pc and thus haven’t got all of my favorites at my fingertips in an election file. Someone please help and post the link for another that allows swings more than this? Thanks :):)
Anthony, do you think you ought to adjust your calculator given the polling trends? ;-D
Well labor got 47% last election 2PP so the basis of this poll if uniform 2PP 60% would give a 13% swing ouch! God even Julie Bishop would lose! The rock of Curtin would be lost! Noooooooooooooooooooooo!
Further primary vote details added to my post.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=national&national=13.2
Why would anyone place more credence on Liberal Party polling than the well known public polls or Labor polling?
Nice to see that you have finally removed your rose coloured glasses, albeit temporarily ;-D
Hey, did I come closest yesterday with the 59-41 punt? Or was there a bolder call?
I had a feeling punters were well sick and tired of Team Rodent’s born-to-rule arrogant rantings this week.
Read and weep Rodent.
They must have interviewed all the respondents in a shopping center situated in a safe labor electorate what tosh.
#113 “..would anyone place more credence on Liberal Party polling than the well known public polls or Labor polling?”
Hyacinth.
Actually i need to compose myself Curtin would still be held but by just 1.4%! And there would be only 5 National Party MPs left!
You can certainly argue over the figures but you can’t deny that the Libs are in dire straits.
thanks james, how did you get it to go more than 10%? then i can know how to do it myself next time 😉
Glen, people have been predicting the fall of the Nationals for a long time. It’s only a matter of time. When you can’t distinguish between the Liberal Party and the National Party they’ve got a big problem on their hands.
I suspect time in opposition would probably help the Nationals to relaunch themselves as a proper country party.
Things cant get much worse Gary so i suppose they can only get better from here!
And this is the result if, please, please God, Labor were to achieve 61.6 2pp
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=national&national=14.2
Probably in my dreams, but Downer and Ruddock gone…
I meant 61.5pp …
Can any of the pseph’s out there enlighten me on how thw MOE should be used?
Is it as a percentage of each primary percentage, in which case 5% (say) of 54% would be only 2.7% and for some of the minor parties 5% of say 6% would be ).3%??. Should the 2.7% be used as a +/-,on the 54%, or what? I’m confused.
Sopt on with your analysis Possum.
Every bad poll pushes the date out as Howard stalls for the slightest glimmer of hope. Next weeks newspoll could be the final circuit breaker.
God i wonder what the Green Primary Vote is lol 2%!
Hey, but maybe the Australian people will be “good enough and kind enough to”………..enjoy up to another TWO MONTHS OF GOVERNMENT ADVERTISING?!?!
Just wondering if this is the Daniel Caffery running for the Libs in Grayndler…
“Senator Bill Heffernan’s second cousin Daniel Caffery, 32, who was outside Hungry Jacks near the corner of Liverpool St on March 13, was the latest victim.
The federal politician was scathing of the State Government after Mr Caffery was bashed, leaving him with a shattered skull and brain damage.”
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,21485736-5001021,00.html
Glen, the Greens vote is 5.5 per cent. Greens, Family First and One Nation are all down 0.5 per cent.
If this 2pp is replicated at the election
, you might be able to hold up this election in 2007 as our Aussie version of the Canadian 1993 election ;-). I don’t think anyone in their right mind, even rusted on labor voters like myself think that the Canadian results would be repeated here, but by our standards, having only 20 seats left or less would be darn close to it :):):):)
Glen,
You know how you just said at 122 that things can’t get much worse. Well, they just did!
http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/rates-pressure-rises/2007/09/28/1190486529089.html
130# ouch! i guess they’ve taken more away from the Coalition’s primary than from the Greens or minor parties i wonder if Rudd’s uber lead in primaries is because undecideds have decided?
re: Lib candidates – Adam @ # 27
Mark Maj**ski (Blaxland) was candidate in Blaxland in 2004 and Bankstown in 2007 state election. He is a member of the Polish community. Here is his state election story from the state election
http://www.torchpublishing.com.au/news_detail.php?ID=39592
Philip Mansour (Watson) was candidate in Canterbury at the 2007 state election. He is from the Egyptian community. Here is a newspaper article from state election time. http://www.villagevoice.com.au/article/20070225/NWS10/702250389/Keeping+it+in+the+family
Perhaps a rate rise woulnt be so bad politically i mean we’re already according to this poll 20 points behind maybe a rate rise would bring the economy back onto the front pages and then we could demolish that Rooster Swan…
Greensborough Growler… why would an article saying rates won’t rise until mid-2008 be cause for concern to Glen?
It just keeps getting better 🙂
Rudd slams ‘secret’ nuclear plan
http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Rudd-slams-secret-nuclear-plan/2007/09/28/1190486541208.html
Alpal @ 91
La Trobe “rock solid”? Whataya mean by that? I used to live in La Trobe and keep an eye out for old time’s sake. That it went lib was always a nonsense.
Nostrils @68
Humbugs? Was that your final dummy spit?
So, I noticed that the Oz has finally updated comments on Shanahan’s latest joke – only took them SIX hours today. Since many on here have an opinion about the Oz and it’s soldiers, I thought I’d take the liberty of reposting my Shanahan comments here. I was responding to the torrent of criticsm that Dennis has once again received………..
“People please, you should all stop telling little Denny how much of an embarrasment he is to the once-proud profession of journalism. You need to understand the psychology at play here. Someone like Dennis has been cheerleading conservatives for so long and rationalising his appalling bias for so long now that he has built a very firm defensive wall in his own mind. If you keep bashing away at that wall by pointing out how shameless his bias is, you will get one of two results. The first would be no change, nor recognition, and an obvious unwillingness to engage in debate for fear of acknowledging that there is substance to such a charge. The other possible outcome is that Dennis’ defensive wall comes crashing down around him – all that would achieve would be the quiet mental self-destruction of a man consumed by an insulated self-delusion. Ultimately, that would do nothing for the state of Australian journalism at all – at the end of the day, this is about ego. The irony is that people like Dennis built their egos through the awe and respect that some (less critical) Australians provided him (and the profeesion) with during his early “career” – a time when journalists were generally worthy of some respect due to the important role they played in our democracy. The irony is that it is that ego that allows Dennis to rationalise his deliberate decision to ignore the howls of SHAME that greet most of his articles. Perhaps the most embarrasingh aspect opf this problem is the fact that Dennis seems quite determined to continue with his shameless Government cheerleading, yet feels he needs to hide behind news limited editors as they defend him in a series of nasty, nameless editorials. A very sad state of affairs that i pray time will solve for us.”
Draw your own conclusions of how the mortgage belt will react to even the talk of rising interest rates.
Here’s a sobering thought for all those Liberal supporters trying to consol themselves over the Morgan Poll. Even if it is overstating Labour’s primary vote by 10%, the ALP probably still wins.
Ha more scare mongering by Labor…negative negative negative….IR, Nuclear, Iraq that’s all they’ll bang on about!
#121: The number at the end of the link is the swing. All you need to do is change it.
Been there @126, it should be used +/- generating a confidence interval thus:
(Labor) vs
(Coalition).
Statistically, 95% of all such polls should be within the MoE. It’s impossible to know the ‘true’ poll result, but we can be 95% confident that it falls somewhere within the +/- range either side of the sample result (ie 60.5).
Hopefully I haven’t confused you further 😉
Glen,
And if these polls play out as expected we will be able to rant on about an untried and untested Liberal leadership team.
No, it will just remind voters that Howard and Costello are liars, because they made promises they couldn’t keep, and took credit for things they had nothing to do with.
Not necessarily GG after all alot of the Leadership in the event we lose will have had many years experience as Ministers…i wouldnt call that untried and untested GG…clutch at straws if you like but your team is more inexperienced than mine…though you are ahead atm so consider yourself lucky.
Glen, and the Liberal Party don’t bang on about union bosses?
And why not, it is obviously a winning tactic that the Kirribilli Coconut would die for 🙂