Morgan: 60.5-39.5

Today’s Roy Morgan poll suggests that voters have, er, reacted sympathetically to Kevin Rudd’s tax gaffe. Or perhaps been driven insane by the onslaught of government advertising on television. Either way, they’ve published a headline figure of 54 per cent for Labor’s primary vote, which seems to have been enough to have caused their server to crash. More details as they come to hand.

UPDATE: Crikey email reports a two-party split of 60.5-39.5. The Coalition primary vote is down from 39.5 per cent to 36 per cent (for those interested, the Nationals vote is down from 3 per cent to 2.5 per cent). Labor’s primary vote in the previous survey was 49.5 per cent. This was a face-to-face survey with a sample of 972.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

904 comments on “Morgan: 60.5-39.5”

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  1. Ahh, Howard is getting desperate.

    [PRIME Minister John Howard says terrorism is a far more immediate threat to national security than climate change.

    In a speech to a criminology conference on Monday, Australian Federal Police Commissioner Mick Keelty said climate change was the greatest national security risk because of the threat of water and food shortages and an influx of refugees.

    Mr Howard today rejected the claims and said terrorism and Islamic extremism were greater national security risks.

    “Terrorism and Islamic fundamentalism are far more immediate threats to Australia than the mass movement of people from China as a result of water shortage,” Mr Howard told Southern Cross Broadcasting. ]

    http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22496929-5005361,00.html

    Oh and he’s saying States are poor at Running Hosptals as well

    http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22496914-5005361,00.html

    Umm, who is responsible for funding Doctors and Medicare ??

  2. Ha sample size of less than 1000 i feel better now.

    But Union bosses are in the ALP caucus CTEP…we have no plans for Nuclear power as of this moment in time….

  3. Ta alpal

    Victoria isnt behaving properly.All of the stuff from the ALP that I’ve heard is consistent with the public polling, but only some of the Coalition stuff I’ve heard is.Now either the swing is extremely uniform in Victoria (which would make the numbers balance out and make the ALP polling mostly wrong by a bit on the upside), or the swing is extremely non-uniform meaning that some of the ALP stuff could be off with most of it being right, and some of the Coalition stuff could be off with most of it being right, leaving us all having to go and play “chase the bizarro swinging seats in Mexico” game for the next month or two.

    You Victorians need to get your act together and behave yourselves.You’re making my abacus explode.

  4. I have a tip for all those on here who dont like Shanahans so called “rants”. Simply dont read them……

    If you think the Oz is the so called Gov Gazette again simply dont read it……

  9. Re Glen:

    Well I’ll leave it to the Australian people to decide whether they’re scared of union bosses. I most certainly am not.

    The thing with IR, nuclear power and Iraq is that the Australian people don’t know what the Liberal Party plan to do with any of those things. I, for one, don’t trust this government to handle any of them properly.

    One things for sure though, nuclear power won’t be invested in until it has bipartisan support.

    Anyhow, nothing much more to add about this poll result. It’s just more of the same.

  12. Forget these polls – just watch where the betting market money is going on a seat by seat basis.

    The end result for Labor – another loss. The Government will come back during the election campaign and all the fifth rate socialist whingers on this site will have to endure another three years of steady but successful conservative rule.

    You know it’s true.

  14. It’s not online, but according to the dead tree version of The West, Noel Brunning, the Celebrity Independent candidate for Forresst is believed to be polling well and may win.

  15. JWH has a shocker of a week when his leadership almost went into meltdown and Newspoll reported a 4% TPP improvement for the government.

    Rudd makes a mistake on tax rates and the ALP’s vote goes through the roof according to Morgan.

    Go figure!

    Honestly the polls aren’t changing. The primary vote of both sides is rock solid. Why not announce the election and all of us put out of our misery?

    The PM is now looking as if he is clinging to the only power he has left, the deciding of the election date. I’m really starting to believe that parliament might be recalled, as ludicrous as it sounds.

  16. I’d say this poll is an outlier. The ALP 2pp is unlikely to be as high as reported, and I’d say the minor party primaries are lower than I would expect and inconsistent with other polls. Couple this with a smallish sample size, and I would say that you can’t take this poll on face value.

    That said, this must seriously bring into question any talk of a Liberal poll bounce. Those who saw the last few polls with slightly reduced ALP support and made the claim the Libs were back in the hunt may have been premature. The poll is certainly consistent with the general trend of reduced support for the Libs.

  18. Isabella,

    When you look at the seat by seat betting on Portlandbet, you´ll see that Labor is up in 78 seats – a clear (if narrow) majority in the HofR.

    I´m pretty sure the other betting markets are about the same.

  19. “Forget these polls – just watch where the betting market money is going on a seat by seat basis.

    The end result for Labor – another loss. The Government will come back during the election campaign and all the fifth rate socialist whingers on this site will have to endure another three years of steady but successful conservative rule.

    You know it’s true.”

    At last!! A sensible comment. Thankyou Isabella

  20. But Thommo it’s not that sensible when the betting markets are showing the ALP in front in a majority of seats… how is that sensible?

  22. I presume Howard can only hold out till Dec. 10, any later and the G-G would have issue the writs (and presumably sack the Govt. on the way!).

  23. Forget the betting market,
    just cut open a small pig in the middle of your kitchen table and you’ll find that any serious reading of the entrails points to a coalition landslide. So suck on that you Stalniist scum (insert crazy, diabolical laughter here)!!!!!

  24. “Just watch where the betting market money is going on a seat by seat basis. The end result for Labor – another loss.”

    “At last!! A sensible comment. Thankyou Isabella”

    Actually seat-by-seat betting shows Labor in front.

  25. William, Brian, Possum and other such deep thinkers, if we have a Labor primary average of 54%, surely this means that a much larger number of seats than is ‘usual’ will be won outright, and not go to preferences. In such a case do we have to review our ideas on the preference flows in the remainder, and might the make-up of the minor parties vote in such seats be significantly different to the ‘average’?

    cheers,

    Alan H

    __________________

    All generalisations are false

  26. Honestly, they really have been insufferable this week! Abbott’s perverted, obscene opportunism on the miscarriage; Dolly’s descent into irremediable ludicrousness on every topic his minders are stupid enough to let that moron discuss; Rodent’s non-stop hammering of a disengaged electorate with their funds.

    Worst campaign Ive ever seen from the Libs.

    And I remember 87.

    My confident assessment: these scumbags are going to get absolutely hammered.

  27. apologies if this gets posted twice, my net connection went down this afternoon and I don’t know if this post made it into the queue before the net went down.

    I can’t get enough of a good thing, I know that ACN is out on Monday. But what is on deck after that? (next few polls; names and dates)

    thanks very much folks :):)

  29. To Optimist (#101).

    There’s nothing wrong with our infrastructure. We have a satisfaction survey sampling visitors to our website which shows that 100% or respondents were able to connect.

    100 percent!

  31. ACN is not out on Monday.
    The next poll is Newspoll and then the week after ACN and then Newspoll and then Galaxy unless an election is called and then we get weekly polls!

  34. Obviously mere mortals can’t remove the Morgan bias from a value of 60.5% TPP. So would Nostradamus mind telling us how many government seats are lost when the bias is removed? 😉

  35. I see the Lib party hacks are out to ‘bury’ the result. They even tell us go look at the betting market, which has Labor 66% chance to win, and as Swing Lowe pointed out Labor has 78 seats through the betting market and we’ve already discussed how the betting markets try to favour incumbents in a seat by seat.

  39. [It’s not online, but according to the dead tree version of The West, Noel Brunning, the Celebrity Independent candidate for Forresst is believed to be polling well and may win.]

    Excellent!

  42. The campaign to talk up the coalition’s chances of winning is in full swing. Steve Lewis is beside himself suggesting polling is showing a swing back – slow but steady, the Libs are saying (without proof) their polling is favourable and word has it every Lib is as happy as Larry with the way things are going. As CEP says why aren’t we in the midst of an official election campaign now then? Me thinks the talk is BS.

  43. Isabella (162) – with the polls showing a swing to Labor of 8% or more, some seats with margins of 10% plus are likely to fall. No bookmaker in his right mind could make the Labor candidate the favourite under these circumstances. You need to factor that into your theory.

    If you want to draw conclusions on where the money is going, the head to head odds are the most reliable, and there Labor is a street ahead.

  46. That Getup ad is great. The fact that Getup got donations of $200 000 in two days to run the ad will be news itself – meaning that the ad will probably get run on some the the news and current affairs shows as well as write ups in the paper and links to the ad from the newpaper web sites.

  50. @ 188 Albert Ross Says:

    It would seem the soft voters have been taking blue pills.

    Noooo!

    Take the red pill, let’s see how deep this rabbit hole goes!

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