Morgan: 60.5-39.5

Today’s Roy Morgan poll suggests that voters have, er, reacted sympathetically to Kevin Rudd’s tax gaffe. Or perhaps been driven insane by the onslaught of government advertising on television. Either way, they’ve published a headline figure of 54 per cent for Labor’s primary vote, which seems to have been enough to have caused their server to crash. More details as they come to hand.

UPDATE: Crikey email reports a two-party split of 60.5-39.5. The Coalition primary vote is down from 39.5 per cent to 36 per cent (for those interested, the Nationals vote is down from 3 per cent to 2.5 per cent). Labor’s primary vote in the previous survey was 49.5 per cent. This was a face-to-face survey with a sample of 972.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

904 thoughts on “Morgan: 60.5-39.5”

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  2. BxTom Says:
    September 28th, 2007 at 12:59 pm

    Let it End @ 32, …and some just haven’t been game to take the leap…

    Yes your right, they are classified as conservative.

  4. Can’t say I’m terribly surprised. Despite all the media attention to Mr Rudd’s so called tax “gaffe,” I suspect much of the general population would have been somewhat off-sided by Peter Costello’s embarrassing carry on over this trivial (non) incident.

    In addition, I’m sure I’m not the only person to have cringed at those awful Climate Clever advertisements.

  5. Does anyone think that Howard not calling the election is rapidly working against him?

    This weekend he has a reasonable excuse – he would look scared if he called the election on grand final weekend. But as of next weekend he must call the election, he just doesn’t have any excuses left, and is just starting to look like he is worried about losing.

    Maybe that is going to play into some of the polls over the next couple of weeks? Also, attacking Rudd in parliament looks like it has completely backfired if this Morgan Poll shows a big improvement in the Labor vote.

  6. Most probably a rogue, but at least it means that the government is still left waiting for the Brian Burke bounce, their budget bounce, and their APEC bounce.

    I bet the likes of Shanahan will be grateful that this is a Morgan poll and not next Tuesday’s Newspoll. Even Shanahan would find it hard to spin a 54% primary for Labor as great news for the coalition re-election hopes. I hope Newspoll shows a rise for Labor next week…

  7. If the Labor primary has been recorded @ 56% – and it’s not a typo – then the 2PP should be around 63:37. This is consistent with the continued attrition of the Liberal vote: something that has been apparent for a long time now.

    More than anything, I reckon such a result suggests people are really fed up with waiting for the election. They want to vote. They are holding lil john responsible for the permanent electioneering mode and for trying to manipuate the electoral cycle and public opinion. The faux campaign is disruptive and distracting and people have been hoping it would be over by now.

    As well, Rudd continues to out-campaign Howard, even when taking account of the occasional inconsequential glitch. If the campaign goes on long enough, I’m hoping for a coalition primary number beginning with a 2…

  12. Adam at 49 – he filled all the criteria in that vid to be a good tiny tory

    Drunk, obnoxious, inappropriate with a touch of the famewhore about it.

    The only thing missing is some old fashioned branch stacking.

  14. hmmm, yes let us all focus on the possibility of a UK poll this year. After all, it’s far more relevant than the title of this thread isn’t it?

  15. Howards problem has been the same for months.

    On any given day the best time to have called an election was the previous week – so he tries just one more advertising program, one more porkbarrel announcement, one more line of attack to try and get back a bit of momentum so he can call the election.When that fails, the position repeats – the election should have been called last week, but just one more advertising program, one more porkbarrel…….

  16. Well in another thread Glen predicted an ALP 2PP of 54… so maybe his prophetic dream was almost correct!

    Needless to say, I don’t think any of us expect a primary of 54% is anywhere near what could be expected on election day. Still, I bet the other side wouldn’t be whinging if they had polls like this.

  19. ShowsOn, I do believe that the longer that Howard delays the election, the more it will work against him. Of course, rusted-on Liberal supporters like Glen, the Exclusive Brethren, and so on, would be happy for Howard to wait until he gets a solid poll bounce. But the rest of the population are probably already getting sick of hearing about the upcoming election, maybe even more so for the swinging voters or those who don’t like to hear too much politics.

    And it is obvious to anyone that Howard is hanging on purely for political reasons. It has nothing to do with the national interest or good government. I am increasingly hearing people refer to Howard being selfish with respect to calling the election, although I do occasionally come across people who already think that Howard has called the election. They won’t be too pleased when he finally does call it, because then there will still be five weeks of further campaigning to go, or more.

    This year Howard just doesn’t seem like the great political strategist that the media have portrayed him to be. He seems incompetent on both fronts, policy and politics.

  25. Possum: you should be in politics. A perfect summary of Howards problem. The Gallery just don’t get it – they report the minuate of daily politics and think it matters. In this climate, it does not. Your site and your anaylsis tells us all that it is well and truly over.

  26. So even with Morgan’s ALP bias of say 2-3 points, it’s still above the average. Still, I want it about 55-56 as Rudd can still claim its going to be a tough battle.

  28. Possum’s assesment at #63 is, to my mind, spot on. I think he has one last chance (in his mind at least) and that is the October sitting session. I’ve said this many time over the last 6-8 weeks that Howard may try to use those final weeks to his advantage. He could take one or both weeks and still have time to go to a 1 December poll. Don’t be surprised.

  29. 2. Is it too late for Howard to use the budget surplus for a ‘welfare for votes’ type of arrangement?

    He would need legislation, which would mean parliament sitting again next month.

    Today Howard goes on radio and says “I haven’t made up my mind when the election will be”. (He also had no idea about what he would do if he lost the election) To me this position is just looking increasingly arrogant, when everyone sees all those adverts on TV every night, and everyone sees Howard and Rudd already campaigning.

    Now this Morgan could be a rogue, or an outlier etc. HOWEVER, Morgan has been astonishingly good this year at picking up new movements. That is Morgan shows a 2 or 3% movement on the 2pp, and then sure enough the next Nielsen, Newspoll or Galaxy shows movement in the same direction, if not of the same magnitude.

    If Newspoll next week moves back out to say 58 / 42. Then that would be an absolute disaster for Howard, and will make him wait even longer, which will just make him look more and more desparate that he is about to lose.

  30. Thanks alpal at 73.

    Since you’re here, and you know things (insert mysterious music)

    Have you heard anything at all about rural Victoria in terms of the vote for anyone?

    Over the last 3 months (according to the Newspoll quarterlies), Victoria has picked more weight in terms of safe seat swing against the government.But a fair bit of weight, now that means either toffy city seats are swinging or that regional and rural safe seats are swinging.Now there’s a lot more regional and rural seats that could carry that weight, so have you or anyone else heard anything?

    My numbers just arent adding up.

  33. the margin of error is 3.1% for anyone interested.

    for those with a good memory the only time in the 96 campaign there was anything like a largish swing was at the end of the week when Howard was woeful. full of verbal and physical falls.
    The public reacted by voting more strongly for Howard because they thought the opposite.

    Watch out for this happening this time round as well

  34. I am sure it is the result of the ridiculous amount of government advertising. People are sitting in front of the TV every night and watching their hard earnt money going down the drain for the sake of propping up a government that has been out of touch for far too long. The more they advertise the more the penny drops.

  38. hamish jones he was a brilliant officer at melb uni student union a few years back.

    No he wasnt. In fact he was far from brilliant and was part of the group of Liberal students and Labor Righters who white-anted the Union to the point of collapse (which it eventually did. It was only matter of time before his antics caught up with him.

  39. Cam Nation has a sister called One – Howard appeared with her on Dancing With the Stars. And I used to go out with his brother Queer.

    That’s all for now. 🙂

  41. Possum: I heard some interesting stuff last night about the Liberal’s private polling. I won’t give detail on this site. Their polling does not match the published polls. They are not as pessimistic as I thought they would be. I know, however – as previously posted – that Latrobe is sitting on 56/57 for the ALP. It’s rock solid. Don’t rule out a return to Parliamentary sittings on 15 Oct.

  42. I don’t know what I’m happier about? Today’s poll, or the return of Nostrodamus? LOL
    Is Nostrodamus for real? I think he’s really an ALP shit stirrer.
    OK, back to the Morgan Poll: probably an outlier, but definitely no sign of some huge swing back to the Liberals, despite the best efforts of the GG, the ABC and Glen.

  43. Possum surely you of all of us wont let alpal get way with rubbish like that – get the the details out of alpal – do IT.

  46. Well Parliament is virtually assured to come back in October if Newspoll confirms the rot has got even worse for the Coalition…still out of all the polls Morgan is the least accurate…and my prediction still stands that the Nats primary will be 1% or less than 1% lol.

  47. Have the folks at Morgan gone for a lunchtime nap or what?
    I won’t believe that poll until i get the details and the buggers haven’t changed the site all day – very annoying.

  48. You know, perhaps I should get the IT consultancy company I work for to go to Morgan and help them with their website and make sure it doesn’t crash when the release a poll.

  49. Hells bells, if this is correct, Rattus is in serious ordure. Surely Morgan has no reason to deliberately get it wrong. What would be the point?

  50. Glen, you have to admit the Morgan poll was pretty accurate on the primaries at the last election don’t you? The Nats primary is completely irrelevant but I don’t suppose you’ll ever admit that.

    Needless to say, comparisons of polling with previous years are completely irrelevant until very close to the election.

    I suspect the Liberal Party’s internal polling is probably closer to reality than the public polls.

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