Morgan: 60.5-39.5

Today’s Roy Morgan poll suggests that voters have, er, reacted sympathetically to Kevin Rudd’s tax gaffe. Or perhaps been driven insane by the onslaught of government advertising on television. Either way, they’ve published a headline figure of 54 per cent for Labor’s primary vote, which seems to have been enough to have caused their server to crash. More details as they come to hand.

UPDATE: Crikey email reports a two-party split of 60.5-39.5. The Coalition primary vote is down from 39.5 per cent to 36 per cent (for those interested, the Nationals vote is down from 3 per cent to 2.5 per cent). Labor’s primary vote in the previous survey was 49.5 per cent. This was a face-to-face survey with a sample of 972.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

904 comments on “Morgan: 60.5-39.5”

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  2. I don’t know what to make of this:
    http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22504865-5006009,00.html

    It seems that Ray Martin agreed to host a Labor fundraiser, but then changed his mind, allegedly due to pressure from his bosses at 9. Channel 9 want to get the TV debate, but now it seems the Liberals are unhappy about Martin at least initially agreeing to front an ALP fundraiser.

    Who else would Howard choose instead of Ray Martin?

  5. … And beautiful it is.

    Milne’s is an article on just how negative the campaign is going to be. Of course, Labor’s will be more negative than the Coalition’s. Tut, tut…

    He ends it with this line (referring to a woman in America who got up at a presidential debate and publicly castigated politicians who went the smear):

    “Let’s hope as campaign 2007 gets under way in the coming weeks that somewhere out there there’s the Australian equivalent of this woman. And she gets the chance to ask the same question.”

    This monumental hypocrisy is from the man who brought us Strippergate (with its unpursued allegations that Rudd was ejected from a nightclub for bad behavior), You-Know-Who-Is-Gay-gate (with it’s insinuation that Labor leaked the story, when he had been given the file by a Liberal, or “not by Labor” as he coyly put it), Long-Tan-gate and a host of other gates.

    Reading this man’s smarmy, I’m-a-senior-journalist-wannabee bile really does make me want to take up ashtray-chucking again.

    God help my TV tube if he’s on Insiders tomorrow.

  7. I would have thought that both electorate and Government (and Ministerial) offices are owned by the taxpayers of this country…

  9. Tom, Howard has made a bitter enemy of Telstra and it’s coming home to bite him,in trying to trump Rudd’s broadband policy he’s handed $billions on a plate to overseas interests and deliberately shut Telsra out in the cold, Howards plan is obviously for an inferior product and let’s face it, the whole shoddy wheeling and dealing has been a slap in the face for the mum and dad investors that Howard talked into buying those shares, i dont like the brash attitude of Sol and co but i can see where their coming from.

  11. Telstra is about to get rib of a lot of their pay phones around the Wentworth electorate.
    That will give Turnbull a bit of a headache, on top of all his other problems.

  12. this poll has got almost NO media attention, and I know that Morgan rarely does. Imagine though if it had of improved 4 points THE OTHER WAY??

  13. Top piece of scurrilous bile from P-Dwarf!

    I wonder why he imagines he has any public credibility after last years live- -to -air pisspottery.

    Imagine having this turkey onside!

  14. did anyone see Milne on Meet The Press– and that idiot who says the voters will all flock back to Howard on the day– he’s delusional.

  18. So, were medical training places cut in 1996? Insiders played the footage and then didn’t bother doing any research to find out who was lying and who was telling the truth! LAZY HACKS, IT WOULD HAVE TAKEN YOU 30 SECONDS TO ORDER AN ABC RESEARCHER TO LOOK IT UP.

  19. That bloke Judy (764) talked about on Meet The Press had worked for the Liberal Party in a past life in a couple od positions one being an advisor to Nick Greiner years ago.

  20. OK, I’ve done my own research (yes, google – but not ALP press releases), I think Gilliard was referring to the 1996 Medicare Provider Number bill, which I think limited the number of GP training places (because there was an oversupply at the time). http://www.ama.com.au/web.nsf/doc/WEEN-6H92RV/%24file/AMA_Submission_to_2005_Biennial_Review.pdf

    The effect seems to have been a restriction on the number of training places, and eventually on the supply of GPs.

    So, did the Howard government cut the number of GP training places in 1996? It placed a limit on them, but from what I can tell, the limit was above the number of doctors being trained at the time(?) Only a few years after that did it begin to act as a bottleneck on the number of doctors being trained.

    I think in this case, Gillard was more honest than Abbott.

    And also, Abbott was missing the main point – that not enough doctors are being trained today. (Although is there really a shortage of GPs? Maybe specialists, but GPs???)

    There you go, ABC, you can use that research for FREE.

  21. Thanks Gary Bruce, I didnt know that (769). I dont think Milne has much credibility out there in journo-land.

    As for Insiders this morning, I noticed they finally mentioned the Morgan Poll – but only in the context of their weekly poll report.

    57/43 seems to be about average for most of the year.

  23. Bob Katter & Tony Windsor on Insiders both sounded like they were leaning toward supporting the ALP should their be a hung parliament. Very interesting…

  24. yes Dario i got that impression also, especially Katter,he was very good in his summing up of Rudd and labor, this election just gets more and more interesting.

  25. how i wish Howard would bite the bullet and call the bloody election, he’s not playing with Rudd’s nerves he’s playing with ours! every time i see him on telly now i just want to put my hands around his scrawney little neck and strangle him– and i’m a bleeding heart pacifist lol.

  28. Yes the Government cut GP training places and medicare provider numbers in 1996. The numbers were less than the number of medical students. I remember Dr Wooldridge response was that there were other things new graduates could do with their degrees – he, for example went into politics rather than private practice.

    The Howard government got medical planning badly wrong in 1996 and the lag period to see the results has been about 10 years. I could give my opinion on why this happened but it would only start a fight.

    Abbott was lying through his a##e when he said Gillard was lying.

    A very quick google brings up this evidence.
    http://www.ama.com.au/web.nsf/doc/SHED-5EXH4Q

  29. I’d just like to go on the record – a day late and completely off topic – to profess my new-found love for the Geelong Football Club. And at least a third (probably closer to half) of of South Australians, including me, now considers them to be our favourite Victorian club ever. Which isn’t saying much, but you catch my drift.

    119 is my new favourite number. This is going to be oh so sweet for oh so long 🙂 Thank you Geelong, we are in your debt!

    …

    As you were.

  30. KellyWatch: On Insiders he didn’t sound too enthusiastic about the polls, not even mild speculation that the government might show up well in Tuesday’s Newspoll. All he talked about was how bad all the polls were.

    If there’s a glimmer of hope Newspoll will be alright for Howard, Kelly usually sparks up a bit, but not today. I’d feel another 58/42 a’comin’. He was downright morose.

    Megalogenis took the gloomy path in his parting comment that Howard hasn’t had two good (i.e. improving) Newspolls in a row this year.

    I’m also predicting Howard won’t show his face too much at the NRL footy this evening. The boo-ing would be too awful for him to have to sit through (although I’d sit through it, with relish).

    Which begs the question: why do we (taxpayers) have to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars ferrying him around from Sydney to Melbourne and then back again (with the plane hangared in Canberra in the meantime) if he has no official function at the games?

  32. Video Hits (of all shows) just closed the show with a big ‘we love you Kevin07’ before putting the vid for Blue Sky Mines on. Didn’t see that coming.

  34. I love it how Lefties purport to be fiscally responsible when they’re out of power, but once in power they create record-breaking deficits and bankrupt government coffers.

    Take a look at the atrocious ways the States have spent their money. They are the worst offenders when it comes to self-promotion and needless extravagance.

  35. A-C: outline the atrocities (and if you have the space, a quick note on economic theory, capacity constraints, state budgets as opposed to federal, and outdated infrastructure in Australia). That is a silly comment.

  36. Paul Kelly also suggested that the election will be called SOON. Hardly a revelation, there are now only 4 practical dates left. November 10, 17 & 24, and December 1.

    My hunch is that the election will be announced on Monday 8th October, issue of writ will be the 9th and the close of rolls for Friday 12th October.

    This gives the PM time to have all the State governors sign the writs for Senate elections, while ensuring people have the minimum period of 3 working days to update their enrolment in accordance with the amended electoral laws. There will be no additional weekend days for people to organise themselves.

    Announcing it on the 8th is the day before the 3 year anniversary of the 2004 election, short circuiting media coverage of the PM not announcing the election within 3 years of the 2004 poll. This could literally be interpreted as the government going “full term”.

    I reckon a 6 week campaign as a comprimise between allowing an extra week to put Rudd under the blowtorch while dealing with the Liberal party’s limited finances. According to my maths that is a polling date of November 17th.

    I don’t believe that Costello “slipped up” yesterday. His remarks were calculated. I wouldn’t read too much into it.

  37. Turnbull Poll: Howard to win Bennelong
    http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22507169-1702,00.html

    😛

    [I love it how Lefties purport to be fiscally responsible when they’re out of power, but once in power they create record-breaking deficits and bankrupt government coffers.]

    Dear Moron,

    When Howard was treasurer, debt was 4% of GDP. When Howard became Prime Minister, debt was 2% of GDP. 4 is a bigger number than 2, alternatively, 2 is a smaller number than 4.

  39. A-C this self promotion by this federal government is a record spend isn’t it? Produce the evidence to suggest otherwise please otherwise, as with the rest of your contribution, you will be shown to be talking through your hat.

  40. The government did not cut the number of training places they restricted access to medicare billing to new doctors who had to go through more training as either a GP or specialist to get a provider no. And then they said sorry we are only going to train 360 (I think from memory) GPs per year. Effectively putting a quota on medicare.

    The result has been too few GPs esp in rural and regional aus and eds full of pts who can’t get into see a GP = cost shifting and technical inefficiency.

    Most govts worldwide underestimated the doctor need at the time viz uk which has recently doubled their med school output. The reasons for this are largely work life balance changes where drs are no longer prepared to work 80 hour weeks. That said the main (covert) reason for the changes in 1996 was to reign in cost and shift it onto the states.

  41. I don’t think the Liberals will be able to talk about fiscal responsibility again for a long, long time, after this year’s incredible binge of pork barrelling and taxpayer-funded election advertising. The Mersey Hospital buyout is one of the most blatant pieces of irresponsible, verging on corrupt, pieces of vote-buying ever seen in this country (and it hasn’t even worked!).

  42. Greetings Imbecile,

    Care to provide me more laughs in regards to your economic illiteracy?

    First, what sort of “debt” are you referring to?

    Second, take a look at the surrounding circumstances: In 1983 there was a severe drought and a sharp recession, this almost always means a deficit. In 1996 the economy had been expanding for 4 years (although not as well as it should have been). Notwithstanding that, it is a testament to Labor’s complete incompetence that the government was running $96 billion in the red.

    For kicks, try spinning your way out of that one.

  44. No A-C listen to Costello he talks about “net debt” this does not mean that there is zero debt.

    As with all things the Govt. says you have to look behind the weasel words.

    The Govt. is paying interest on $55 billion worth of debt. FACT. 🙂

  45. Gary Bruce, I’m not for a second condoning the Federal Government’s shameful self-promotion through advertising.

    What I *was* doing was trying put it into some perspective for some of the partisan hacks (most likely Left-faction ALP staffers) on this website who see everything through the lens of “ALP = good. Everything Kevin the Messiah does is under the auspices of the Almighty Lord” and Coalition = evil. Everything Howard does is desperate, dishonest and under the command of Satan.”

  47. Today’s Sunday Crimes magazine had an insert for Howard’s “Climate Clever” scheme.

    So it seems Murdoch is beingf used to distribute the spam instead of Aust Post.

  49. More APEC fallout, it seems that Charges against the Chaser may be dropped.

    [THE team from the ABC’s satirical The Chaser’s War on Everything may escape prosecution for their stunt which breached APEC security.

    Due to face Downing Centre Local Court on Thursday, Fairfax reports today the matters have been adjourned until December “leading to speculation the matter could be dropped altogether”.]

    http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22506948-5005361,00.html

    Score 1 Chaser – ) Howard 0 🙂

  50. A-C (784),

    I would like you to justify your comment about “the atrocious ways the States have spent their money”. I realise that a proper discussion of the issue is very complex and would require a detailed knowledge of all six state budgets over a lengthy time period, so you may be able to point me to a non-partisan study somewhere that backs your claim.

    The states receive in GST revenue about the same proportion of GDP, 5 per cent, as they did in federal grants, before the GST, so they are not swimming in revenue. Even so, the Victorian Government has cut its own taxes from 5.8 per cent of GSP to 4.5 per cent. This is a saving of more than $2 billion to the state economy. It has run a budget surplus every year and it has still been able to invest in services and infrastructure. Every state budget is in surplus.

    This is boring for regular readers, who may skip the rest as they have heard most of it before. The Victorian Labor Government has:
    employed thousands of extra police,
    employed 8,061 extra nurses,
    employed 1,500 extra doctors,
    employed 5,193 extra teachers,
    invested $1.4 billion on capital spending on schools,
    started on a further $1.9 billion capital investment in schools over this term as part of a plan to rebuild every school in the state, and
    rebuilt the Austin Hospital.

    I do not have to travel far from my home to see a brand new Labor Government-provided CFA station, two brand new Labor Government-provided police stations, a brand new Labor Government-provided primary school and a brand new Labor Government-provided ambulance/police/CFA station.

    Attacking the “atrocious” but strangely re-elected state governments will not win this election for the Liberals. My own view, expressed more than once, is that is almost impossible for them to win. They have now wasted ten months on campaigns which have had less impact than fairy floss would on Kevlar. I think it is now too late.

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