Today’s Roy Morgan poll suggests that voters have, er, reacted sympathetically to Kevin Rudd’s tax gaffe. Or perhaps been driven insane by the onslaught of government advertising on television. Either way, they’ve published a headline figure of 54 per cent for Labor’s primary vote, which seems to have been enough to have caused their server to crash. More details as they come to hand.
UPDATE: Crikey email reports a two-party split of 60.5-39.5. The Coalition primary vote is down from 39.5 per cent to 36 per cent (for those interested, the Nationals vote is down from 3 per cent to 2.5 per cent). Labor’s primary vote in the previous survey was 49.5 per cent. This was a face-to-face survey with a sample of 972.
Kevlar Kevin?
AC – Federal Revenue as a proportion of GDP, as well as in total, is the greatest it has even being while at the same time payments to the States as a proportion of GDP is at its lowest for 20 or so years. The States actually deliver schools and hospitals etc and are doing a fantastic job. The anti-States campaign is completely and stupidly ill informed or deliberately dishonest and is just political rubbish from Lib HQ.
If this stuff was a new lie I be worried, but the polls all year have been steady and solid not withstanding constant lies and smear from Lib HQ.
All well and good Chris Curtis, but could you address this point please:
“Everything Kevin the Messiah does is under the auspices of the Almighty Lord†and Coalition = evil. Everything Howard does is desperate, dishonest and under the command of Satan.â€
Stumped now, aren’t you?
[The anti-States campaign is completely and stupidly ill informed or deliberately dishonest and is just political rubbish from Lib HQ. ]
It’s all the feds have left to do. They can’t talk about their own record, becuase voters couldn’t care less. They just see wasted opportunity.
When Costello was handing out “one off” vote buying payments, he should’ve been matching state funds to build desalination plants. But instead he considered the short term electoral tweak more important than securing our country’s water future.
A-C
“Everything Howard does is desperate, dishonest and under the command of Satan.†Too true, too true, but you left out slimy and scheming and …
Oakeshott, as if we’d fight with you– we’re saving that up for Howard, as for Abbott lying, well that lot couldnt lie straight in bed!
Pat@802 – I’m not sure what could be added except
The Lord Bless Kevin and keep Kevin, the Lord make his face shine upon Kevin and give Australia peace.
pmsl Max, if you need tickets any time i’ll lend you my crows gold pass, that’ll give you two seats, i cant get there every match and their GOOD seats.
Frank @ 798, we can just lock them away on a small island, torture them and think about charging them in abou 4 3/4 years from now. Should keep another issue out the way until after the election. Besides, one of them was wearing a robe – must be guilty. I believe the precedent has alraedy been set.
On another note, what is the bet that the Gunn’s Mill anaouncement is made at the same time as the election – to try and minimise it with the electorate – the Libs are stupiod enough to try anything…
And all good & fair Australians say Amen to that 🙂
Pat @802
It seems as if you already have your answer. But, what was the question?
[On another note, what is the bet that the Gunn’s Mill anaouncement is made at the same time as the election – to try and minimise it with the electorate – the Libs are stupiod enough to try anything…]
Rumour is it is being announced some time this week.
My guess is the government will find a way to support it, but with some changes of some sort.
William – are there any protocols restricting name calling on this site? Calling each other “moron” and “imbecile” is not a good look, whatever the worth of the arguments.
Another election winning strategy from our august leader:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/09/30/2047102.htm?section=justin
Pat (802),
Not stumped! I let that one through to the keeper. He’s submitting it for the next series of Wire in the Blood.
Dear me! I should have known the outrage from 95% of the commentators on this site when an evil Howard supporter dares encroach on tribal territory!
To Chris Curtis and jasmine “ALP campaign launches bring tears to my eye” Anadyr.
You only have to pick up a newspaper to come across the latest debacle from a state-run hospital, corrupt (and inept) police forces, public “transport”, or indoctrination centres (public schools).
Funding and employment boosts towards various sectors *do not* necessarily correspond with an increaes in quality. And they certainly haven’t in most states.
Need I mention the looming water catastrophe we’re about to encounter? When was the last time a State government proposed to build a dam? Why on earth did that idiot Bracks (good riddance he’s gone) and now Premier Brumby refuse to sign onto the national water scheme?
Yes, the federal government is stuffed – but I’m really looking forward to Howard bringing these rotten to the core mob of state governments down with him.
Explain this.
In Perth Sunday Times today we have the following
“information” which you all have paid for.
page 17: half page ad in colour suggesting that I
switch appliances off at the wall and thank the
current government for making us all “climate
clever”
page 27: one third of a page ad with same wording
(but in black and white)
Is this a responsible use of our money?
I can’t even believe it will deliver any votes to the
Liberals.
A-C, what you conservatives are going to have to accept is that everything relating to the economy that your mob has done, the labor party will be able to do easily – only better. Keep up the insults (loooserrr).
According to the betting on betfair, the odds for the election are the same as todays game.
ALP 1.50 / LIB2.98.
ARL Seas Eagles 2.98 / Superleague News Ltd Anywhere But Melbourne Storm 1.50.
They are kiddin’. Rudd will be winning and that newspaper mob are going to get bashed. 😉
In AFL Collingwood are going to be expelled, Essendon are merging with Western Bulldogs and Richmond are merging with Hawthorn, to enable a second Sydney team into the competition backed by the Murdoch press. 🙂
Hockey is trying to beat this one up and run with it.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22507182-5005962,00.html
Akerman is still trying to thrash the Queensland story of nineteen years ago and tie Rudd in with it, even Howard doesnt want to go there, methinks perhaps the Nationals have something to hide with it all.
Dr Good
That is a bloody disgrace! The libs have probably scringled some contra deal, but that little exercise in useless advertising would have cost a small fortune.
“Protocols” is too big a word, but I would probably have deleted the “moron” and “imbecile” comments if I had been on the ball. The damage has been done now, so I will restrict myself to asking those responsible to behave themselves.
William Bowe
http://www.pollbludger.com
A C {816} in 2002 the states approached Howard to buy out Cubbie station and let the water they were damming {enough to fill the Sydney Harbour} flow down the Murray plus help provide money for pipes to bring the water from where it was plentiful to where it was needed, Howard dissed them off!
More Howard Pork.
[PRIME Minister John Howard has pledged $10 million towards the construction of a rugby league Hall of Fame.
Mr Howard made the funding announcement at a pre-NRL grand final luncheon in Sydney’s south today.
The Prime Minister said he was approached by the Men Of League Foundation with a proposal to build the facility, which will also mark the centenary of the code in 2008.
“We have decided to contribute some $10 million to the establishment of the Hall of Fame,” Mr Howard told about 150 guests at the St George Rugby League club rooms in Kogarah. ]
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22507221-5005361,00.html
Is 824 comments a record, William?
Yes it is EC, but not one I’m greatly excited about. It just means I’ve taken an unusually long time to start a new thread because I’m taking it easy(-ish) this weekend.
A big response to this thread, but we should all take the proverbial cold shower as Morgan are often way off the mark. But – the aggregation of polls on ‘Insiders’ toay is still VERY good news. Also saw that Kortlang bloke on ‘Greet the Mess’ on 10 this morn – can’t agree with him that the voters are just flirting with Rudd, this guy obviously doesn’t read any blogs or talk to the hoi polloi.
Frank @ 823
This is making me very angry indeed. Note his words, though, “…some $10 million …” That means it’ll work at $19.99 pinched from the petty cash jar. If that. The League of Rugger Gentlemen should not hold its breath. If members have any sense, they’ll ask for a cheque – now! – and bung it in the bank, pronto. The man has no shame.
AC I don’t need an ALP launch to bring tears to my eyes, there is a clip of Bob Hawke signing some of Solidarity forever on youtube, you can fire it up and have the tears any time you are feeling a bit low.
You cite newspaper articles as you evidence in a complex debate in respect of vertical fiscal imbalance. And yes the misunderstanding of how excellently State’s are delivering the services that matter to Australian’s does come back to very sensationally reported stories in the media. The West, not happy with how bad are hospitals are ran a false story; and now that is the evidence you are relying on to get back to the talking point sent from head office.
For dams to fill you have to have that thing that falls from the sky, I can’t remember what it is called. As if building a million dams would have been the solution 10 years ago. Taking climate change seriously 10 years ago was what was needed, but our beloved leader didn’t get them memo there was a real issue until this year.
Your police force comments would need some evidence. You are suggesting systemic failure, I’m pretty sure there is no evidence for that.
Commerce stopped playing the loony tunes game of ‘fewer people fewer resources gives better outcomes’ decades ago. It is a loony tunes game completely divorced from reality. A common hymn in the CCI hymn book I know but that doesn’t make it smart.
The State Governments are not rotten to the core they are actually doing a fantastic job; but your research is in the newspapers so you aren’t going to get to understand this.
Alex @ 826
If the blogging world proportionately represents the population of Australia, then in a few months we will have a government comprising of approximately 150 ALP seats.
Judy @ 808 – would be tempted to take you up on that… lol.
i just put in a blog at the Akerman site for the first time– actually i never read him or Janet, i let fly and i know dammed well it wont get printed but gee it felt good.
I would agree that the States have been starved of funds by the Feds ( money going to the states is now only 5% of GDP whereas it used to be 7% ) but to say that the States are doing a fantastice job is an exaggeration. They are generally doing a good job in difficult circumstances but let’s face it if the State Oppositions weren’t totally and completely hopeless then some of these State governments would have lost power.
Of course the blogging world does not represent the population of Australia, something we should try to remember once in a while.
“When was the last time a State government proposed to build a dam? ”
A-C
Qld Labor last year. 🙂
http://au.news.yahoo.com/070930/2/14k1f.html
Big Bob Katter calls it for Rudd. Claims IR and climate change will kill Howard stone dead.
He also reckons country people will swing ALP for first time in 30-40 years.
Ive been a big fan of Bob’s work on coalition unity for years.
You gotta listen when the Big Grey Man talks.
Hi Adam,
Off topic but do you have anything on Charles McLaren who stood against A A Calwell in Melbourne in 1949 ? – its one of the elections your revising.
A-C that obviously would have been about the time your political deity John Howard made a promise to open up the heavens and fill up all the empty ones.
(Somehow federally, there was a lack of “faith” in “climate change.” A new faith of “climate shift” has however been discovered and we wait with bated breath to see if this new faith will fill up the dams before the election.)
That’s probably the first lucid thing I’ve ever heard from B. Katter, but do admire his work on coalition unity. Admirable, an ornament to the game.
A-C (816),
I don’t think anywhere near “95% of the commentators on this site†have even responded to you, much less with outrage. Newspaper articles of particular failings in state government areas of responsibility, which have been common under governments of both persuasions for at least the 40 years I have been paying attention, do not constitute proof that the Labor states are “atrocious†at spending money.
Funding and employment boosts do not “necessarily†correspond to improvements in quality, but they tend to be a necessary step for that improvement in quality to occur over the long term; e.g., if you do what the Liberals did in Victoria and dump almost 9,000 teachers from the system the workload of the rest increases and they burn out and leave. If you add 5,193 teachers in place of those missing, you start to undo the damage done and you can then cap prep to grade 2 classes at 21 pupils each so that teachers can pay more attention to individuals and improve their basic skills. The employment of additional nurses and doctors has increased the number of patients treated in hospitals though not eliminated waiting lists for elective surgery.
The Liberals used to understand these things. That is why Liberal Governments employed an additional 13,000 teachers between 1973 and 1978, leaving the secondary pupil-teacher ratio at 10.9:1 in 1981. By 1992, the Liberals had forgotten this and they worsened the secondary PTR from 10.8:1 to 12.6:1 by 1999, when Victorians finally cast them into the outer darkness.
My understanding is that Steve Bracks refused to hand over the state’s constitutional power over water because the federal government scheme was not adequate to meeting the needs of Victorian irrigators.
The day will come when the Liberals can pick up a few state governments, not because those governments are ‘rotten to the core’, but because they will run out of ideas and lose touch. To do so, the Liberals have to get in touch and that is their difficulty. If they were in touch, they would never have brought in their IR laws, which upend a century of progress in Australian and strike at the heart of what our nation is. If they were in touch, they would be able to respond more successfully to the state governments because they would actually know the areas of concern and be able to make a case that they would fix them.
The worst government Victoria has had in my life was the last Liberal one. I have never known a government to be so destructive and at the same time given such an easy ride by the press. If the Liberals can move away from the ‘slash and burn’ mentality of that era, they will be contenders again. If they and their supporters keep banging on about the states, the unions, the “Labor has no policies†line, the Heiner Affair, Brian Burke, etc, they will remain an irrelevance.
if there is a change of government there will need to be changes to
the National electoral laws such as fixed terms, votes are formal to the extent that a voter’s intention is clear, extend time to vary enrollment details (including new enrollments)
and other changes so that the extensive tax payer funded political
adds cannot occur in the future
such changes would i’m sure be supported by all fair minded people
Oakeshott, no, I know nothing about him, other than that he was never elected to any Australian Parliament.
Does anyone know who the No 4 candidate on the ALP Senate ticket in SA is? They’d have to be given some chance of election on current polling.
Max @ 826. watch an Australian crime show ch9 tuesday nights at the end of the month and you’ll know who i am, your welcolme to the tickets when i’m not using them {which is rarely nowadays}, they get you into the shed afterwards as well, we need to fly the colours at ALL home matches.
Brack and Brumby by opposing the national water plan did so because the plan reduced the water allocation for Victorian farmers.
We don’t need this water plan, what we need is a series of desalination plants which could be placed in a number of places around the country overlooking the sea then delivered to those areas that need it.
Why should Victoria give up water when NSW uses part of its allocation for rice growing and we all know Rice requires a large amount of water.
While we can question how this Govt has spent our money, one thing we can say is they have at least delivered 10 budget sulphus and have a better record than the Keating Govt, now before anyone bangs on about foreign dept or private dept, that isn’t really the Govt problem.
If people choose to run up credit card dept then that isn’t Costello’s problem, the world economy runs on dept and that isn’t going to change.
I feel for Lefties for we all want the Election but Howard does have the right to call the Election when he chooses, just as in 2010 Kevin Rudd will have that right regardless of what we may think of the Howard Govt it is no worst or better than the Keating Govt.
While it wont happen but I wonder what swing will be needed to the ALP to win 119 seats.
Well, I’m not a left-faction party hack. Never been a member. Never will be. I vote Labor, though.
BTW, new post from Possum is up, “My, what a big swing you have”. Predicting 49 seats to change hands.
12.2%
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/pendulum.shtml
Chris @ 838
“My understanding is that Steve Bracks refused to hand over the state’s constitutional power over water because the federal government scheme was not adequate to meeting the needs of Victorian irrigators.”
In the early stages of this, wasn’t Bracks also concerned that the Feds would privatise the system? In other words, gain control, fatten and flog.
” The worst government in Victoria … ”
Yes, a time of horror. Kennett’s Water Reform Unit was working on the details. Bracks was around at the time, hence his concerns about Howard’s water plan?
Derek,
Yes, privatisation was also a concern.
[ If people choose to run up credit card dept then that isn’t Costello’s problem ]
Wrong. It’s everyone’s problem. And with a government which encourages consumption and spending it is inevitable that debt would rise.
bmwofoz asks:
“I wonder what swing will be needed to the ALP to win 119 seats.”
Bloody Krypto Geelong supporters everywhere today!
As to fixed terms etc, let’s wait and see what Rudd & Co do.
I’m off to see what possum’s got to say.
That is the line being run in the media, but the cops have only said they will re-consider the matter in December. My suspicion is that the government don’t want this embarrasment aired during the election campaign so its been deferred, but the deity help the lads if the coalition squeaks back.
Possum has once again come up with a set of mysterious calculations proving that Labor is going to win seats which everybody knows Labor is not going to win (Dawson, Warringah, Goldstein, Higgins). I’m not sure what the point of this is. It’s possible to over-analyse polls, and I think Possum is falling into this trap. All the polls really tell us is that there is a big swing on everywhere except WA, where there is a medium swing. Trying to extract more precise information from the polls is a mistake. Polling is not an exact science and treating poll data like, say, meterological data is futile.