Phoney war dispatches: last Question Time edition

It could well be the last Question Time edition …

• Dennis Shanahan of The Australian reports that the Prime Minister is “considering calling the election within three weeks”. A return of parliament on October 15 is not ruled out, but is rated “unlikely”.

• The Australian has published Newspoll’s quarterly cumulative polling, broken down into state-by-state and marginal versus non-marginal seats.

• Antony Green’s federal election guide should be in business at the ABC Elections page from around 9am. A new feature will be the election calculator showcased by Antony on Tuesday’s edition of Lateline.

• The ALP hierarchy appears to have pulled the rug from under its candidate for Cowper, John Fitzroy, by reopening nominations for the seat. This decision reflects Labor’s increasing confidence it can overhaul Nationals MP Luke Hartsuyker’s 6.6 per cent margin. It is expected the nomination will now go to “local training consultant” Paul Sekfy, who ran in 1993, 1996 and 1998 without cutting the margin below 4.1 per cent. Fitzroy was preselected unopposed in June and, according to The Australian’s Imre Salusinszky, recently quit his job with the local area health service to conduct his campaign.

• Eden-Monaro has been the focus of much attention this week. Both the Prime Minister and the Opposition Leader campaigned in Queanbeyan on Wednesday, where Kevin Rudd proved unable to tell a reporter much about current income tax scales. On the same day, it emerged that Liberal member Gary Nairn’s chief-of-staff Dr Peter Phelps had told Mike Kelly, decorated Iraq war veteran and Labor candidate, that his attitude to his service was that of a Nazi concentration camp guard.

• Andrew Fraser of The Australian reports that the parliament’s two non-retiring independents, Kennedy MP Bob Katter and New England MP Tony Windsor, “spelt out their terms in the event of a hung parliament”. Windsor says he will back whichever party wins the most seats or, in the event of a tie, the most votes. Katter will “support the party that promises to mandate 10 per cent ethanol in petrol”. One suspects there will be more than one such party, if that’s what it comes to.

• At the end of what has been a surprisingly good week for the government, the Daily Telegraph has gone in hard against Labor on successive days, running its politics coverage under the banners “Rudd’s bungle” and “Rudd’s meltdown”.

• I’m starting to get those pesky “bandwidth about to be exceeded” emails, so readers of a generous persuasion might like to make use of the the PayPal button on the sidebar. I conservatively estimate it will cost $200 to keep the site going until the end of the month, with further bills to follow towards the end of each month until the election is held. UPDATE: I’ve received more than enough donations to cover any bandwidth requirements for this month (many thanks to all). Anyone who still wants to donate is of course more than welcome to do so, but I should not deceive anyone into thinking that it won’t be going into my pocket.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

206 comments on “Phoney war dispatches: last Question Time edition”

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  1. The Australian Cleaning Contractors Association is considering dumping AWA’s and returning back to the awards system. They say say the fairness test adds too much complexity and confusion. This is after its AWAs failed the fairness test, and were asked to increase the wage by 66c/hour.

    My mum used to be a cleaner, and can tell you know it’s a crap job and a crap pay to start with, so you know the AWAs aren’t going to sit well with cleaners.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/09/21/2039421.htm?section=justin
    and
    http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/contract-cleaners-plan-to-rip-up-awas/2007/09/20/1189881683377.html

  2. Many thanks to all who have donated or tried to. PayPal really should be clearer about this, but you don’t actually need a PayPal account to donate. Click on the link; write anything you like under “Item” and the number of dollars you are donating under “Unit Price”; click “Continue” where it says “Don’t have a PayPal account?”; fill out the credit card details.

  3. I was impressed by how Mike Kelly handled the abuse from Peter Phelps at that meeting in Eden-Monaro. After Phelps made his disgusting claim that Kelly was no better than a concentration camp guard at Belsen, the audience (quite understandably) started to shout Phelps down. But Kelly told the audience to let Phelps have his say. Kelly handled it very well.

    It’s easy to see Kelly as a future defense minister. He would certainly be better than current pain-in-the-bum flag-waver we’ve got now.

    I hope Kelly wins Eden-Monaro and I hope he has a significant role in a future government.

  4. [It’s easy to see Kelly as a future defense minister. He would certainly be better than current pain-in-the-bum flag-waver we’ve got now.

    I hope Kelly wins Eden-Monaro and I hope he has a significant role in a future government.]

    Plus he has one of the great mo’s in Australian political history.

  7. Vote 1 for the mo!!!

    What will be interesting is that if Mike Kelly is given Defence will go from a Colonel to being the boss of the Chief of the Defence Force. This means that someone (ACM Angus Houston) who was once four ranks above him in the command chain will then be his subordinate. I’m not 100% sure this will be a harmonious thing initially but at the very least Mr Kelly will have an intimate knowledge of the inner workings of Defence and the problems and challenges it faces.

  8. Mike Kelly was interviewed on ABC radio in Sydney yesterday: very impressive! Another military man and ALP candidate Peter Tinley in WA is another potential good addition to Rudd’s team, should he win Stirling.

  9. Anthony

    The site looks good.

    The state by state swing predictor is great.

    However, it does no cope with swings of more than 10% to ALP.
    So we can’t put the latest newspoll data in. Eg, 11% swing in Victoria.
    Is that possible to fix?

    Thanks

  11. William, take your graphic headers off. The rest is plain text. You don’t need to ‘se*x up’ your site, its getting enough traffic anyway. And link to poll graphs on others sites eg Possum, newspoll

  13. Re: The Murdoch Press move to supporting Howard.

    The really take the risk with their business here as 50% or more are Labor supporters and a goodly percentage do take an interest in politics. Many Labor supporters would be getting upset with the News Ltd papers attack on Rudd and continual up-selling of Howard. I know some who have decided to not buy News Ltd papers and it is spreading, especially the younger ones (who are usually Labor supporters).

    I can see the emotion in this election is at a much higher level than usual and people much more sensitive as to what the media are doing – the media itself is starting to become an issue. This general dissatisfaction with News Ltd papers could quite easily develop into a movement and cost them a large segment of readers, permanently. In fact people are telling others to not buy News Ltd papers. Which is a bit premature.

    ANOTHER issue is those journalists such as Price, Shanahan and so forth who give the appearance of being Howard Govt sycophants (true or not) who have hitherto been able to write their stuff in utter comfort and hide away in their offices. BUT bias journalism is becoming an issue and the on-line world is one that condenses the issues and the concerns. PEOPLE will want to more and more make these types of journalists accountable. I am sure some of them will start to face personal confrontations by groups of upset Labor/Liberal supporters.

    I think it actually a good thing if journalists, like pollys, are made accountable and have to explain their bias to the public face to face. Knowing they will be held accountable by an upset public would certainly help to clear their thinking and make them think twice about the quality of their work.

    I can give a good example of good treatment of politics in the newspaper. I notice in the Northern Territory News – News Ltd (so far) that their politics page(s) have at least one story on each of the major parties + greens next to each other. It looks like a deliberate attempt to be even handed. Why? Maybe because their market is a small one of around 150,000 half of which are Labor supporters AND they continually face the risk of competitors jumping into their market. It remains to be seen if they stick with this. So pissing off half your market can hurt.

    The stuff Price wrote today is simply rubbish. It seems from his writings all year that he hates Rudd, rather like a little Downer.

    So I guess there is a warning here for News Ltd and bias journalism – being unfair in politics and in a democracy will cost you business and will make you accountable.

  14. A point of order.

    I just ordered a “Pseph” for $10 to help out the Bludger.

    I now regret this.

    That free text order description field offered endless possibilities that I failed to exploit. For example, I could have typed:

    – One free unmoderated comment to be redeemed when I cross the line or post off-topic. (used up already)
    – Instructions on how to perform a vulcan death grip
    – Bludger analysis of the seat of Griffith
    – 1 amazing techni-coloured dream coat
    – Bludger senate analysis of Queensland
    etc

    A lesson learned for next time.

  15. RGee no you’re not reading wrongly, but neither are the headlines incorrect. The Coalition is closing the gap and the polls do look very bad for the Coalition. Whether the polls translate on the day is another question.

  16. I could be mad and tired at the end of the week but I think Labor had a great week. The libs either were in the same kind of mood and said the same kind of things that failed for them all year. More smear, which has failed them all year.

    Obviously would be better without the tax rate stuff up, but the tax policy will make that irrelevant.

    Oh and I think seeing him angry in Parliament, and saying something everyone in Australia knows is true … it is strippergate too, when drunk he likes to perve at girls and when really angry he fights hard, but without being a dill. Just the kind of PM we want.

    And Rudd just can plod along, say Howard is cunning and has no plan for the future and remind everyone how hard winning 16 seats is … lovely week unless I missed something?

  17. Perhaps you should put in links on the front page to allow people to go straight to the most recent comments page for long threads. At the moment, even if you’ve already read the first 100 comments, you have to load that page again to navigate to the most recent ones.

  20. William,

    Thanks for this place. I’ve put a little something in the cup.

    These are all great suggestions and I commend them to the house:
    S @ 7
    Albert Ross @ 24
    Chris B @ 39

  22. “RGee Says:
    September 21st, 2007 at 10:56 am
    Maybe it’s me, am _I_ reading the figures wrongly? To me the entire poll looks VERY bad for the Coalition.”

    No RGee, you’re not reading the figures incorrectly, it is very bad for the Coalition, as it has been all year.

    The good news reporting of these figures has been generated by the intial article by Dennis Shanahan. It’s what he hopes, falsely, will change the opinion of voters. He is massively deluding himself.

  23. I agree with you wholeheartedly, Kina. I know people who are not avid political watchers, but who nevertheless have felt disgusted at the way in which some papers (and other media) have tried to smear Rudd. It is so transparent, it’s almost as if these “journalists” are operating in some kind of parallel universe. They seem to assume that their readers are sufficiently stupid not to notice the lack of proper analysis and questioning and just swallow the hysteria. They underestimate their readership.

    Plus, whether it is correct or not, there is definitely a growing perception that much of the media are in the pockets of the Howard government. I am often surprised by the number of people I meet who have this impression. I think this is part of the reason why previous smear attempts this year have backfired. Even when journalists do their best to give credibility to the smear, people are turned off. They can actually SEE the biased motivation and maliciousness behind it. And in some cases, it can even turn them off the whole paper. Often, there is a distinct lack of credibility that journalists and editors don’t even try to cover up.

    At any rate, it has been very interesting this week to see who has jumped back onto the government’s bandwagon, just at the point when there looked like there being some momentum behind Howard. Just a little sniff of a Howard victory has drawn a neat line between the pro-Howard papers and journalists and the rest. Very revealing.

    Anyway, thank God for the internet. And blogs! I hope that as time goes on, the MSM become increasingly irrelevant for many people, as it already is for some.

  24. Would someone but preferably not one of the “(w)rath-kindled gentle(people)” who despise “(b)eing ruled by (JWH)”, kindly explain why it is said that Matt Price’s piece in today’s Australian is ‘rubbish’? I understand that there is plenty of scope to disagree with his opinion but is it in fact put, persuasively, that his position is not reasonably arguable?

  26. David there is no reason. Matt Price is praised when he supports the ALP and bags Howard, the instant he’s even slightly critical of Rudd people jump up and down that he’s a Howard stooge.

    Personally, I’ve stopped reading any opinion pieces because they just make me angry. That’s why opinion pieces are mainly irrelevant. If it goes with what you already think then you just nod and agree, if it goes against what you think you get angry and think its biased.

  27. Unlike Shanahan, Matt Price has often being critical of Howard. Personally, I don’t see what all the fuss is about when he writes one column that’s critical of Rudd.

  30. Agreed re Price. I was waiting to see something sladerous from the comments here – it seems just his take on the tactics. He could have chosen a different topic, but so could anyone. No need to sound like intellectually outgunned Libs complaining about ABC ‘bias’.

  32. Attacks on Kevin Rudd seem to fail each time. People out there in the real world don’t like nastiness. I suspect that apart from the bounce back from Kevin Rudd’s APEC starring role that a number of people, especially older people, felt sorry for John Howard under siege and that may account for some of the “claw back”. As soon as John Howard resumes the role of attack dog, the sympathy vote vanishes.
    In the end it will be the confusion of the two headed PM which may bring the Coalition undone. There’s a cartoon in our local paper of the two heads on the same body savaging each other.
    People want certainty and they don’t get it with a retiring PM and who knows which successor? People are entitled to know who will be PM in a year or two if they vote Liberal. They really don’t know now.
    It may be Peter Costello, on the other hand it may be Joe Hockey or Tony Abbott or Brendan Nelson or the out of favour Malcolm Turnbull.
    With Kevin Rudd the people get certainty and fresh ideas.
    Look how New Zealand has just announced a comprehensive carbon control programme. They are way head of us.
    We need to start catching up on such important issues and we know this cannot happen under John Howard and may not under whoever replaces him, whenever that may be.

  33. Question to the Labor supporters…

    If Rudd’s condition was known many years ago as he himself gave an interview on Sunrise where he mentioned his transplant then how is any of this a smear regardless who made the comment?

    If its common knowledge then why is it a smear? And why would the Government spike their own story?

    Who would have wanted to spike the Government’s story? Simple the ALP!

  34. Both sides of politics dig dirt, trying to pretend otherwise is frankly unbelievable. Labor is well in front at this stage and doesn’t need to dig dirt to win. The Coalition needs anything it can get its hands on and thus will try anything to gain a perceived advantage. The facts reflect this.

  36. I can see this thread quickly descending off-topic.

    In regard to Williams’ bandwidth constraints… is the case that Australia is quite unique for low thresholds?

  37. If polls hold and the Libs join their state counterparts in the wilderness, I wonder if they will follow their leads in “how to get their proverbial act together” 😉 …….. As we all know the Libs are in a mess in VIC, QLD and NSW. Apparently, they aren’t doing too well in SA either or Downer wouldn’t be contemplating a move back to state politics.

    Update on the rabble in NSW. Barry O’Farrell (sp?) took over after the state election here in March this year. Heard on the radio this morning that the Libs are very close to a leadership spill as they have given him 6 months on the job and decided he’s not good enough. Apparently the killer issue is that he hasn’t come up with enough good alternatives on the water crisis. If he comes up with enough on that issue, they won’t dump him. Don’t know when or if this will happen but it just demonstrates how hard it has been over recent years for the state Libs to get themselves organized.

  38. It’s interesting to use Anthony’s state-by-state calculator using today’s newspoll jul-sep figures. The swings from 2004 in SA, QLD, NSW and VIC are pretty much all around the 9-10% mark. Remarkable.

  39. Ah Glen, I think the issue is the intentions of the leak as opposed to the outcome. Some dopey Tory thought it would be a good smear (I guess for the same reason they thought Brian Bourke, Rudds wife’s businesses and the strip club fiasco would also be good smears). Needless to say it isn’t (in our opinions) much of a good smear, but the intention was there none the less.

  40. David Charles @ 74
    CTEP @ 76

    Matt Price’s piece in The Australian is rubbish because it swings on a claim known to be factually inaccurate when the column was written:

    In truth, Oakes’s exclusive was first revealed by Rudd himself during his weekly stint as Captain Happiness on the Sunrise breakfast show. This was around the time newly sensitive, private Kevin was starring in corny music video clips and being filmed half-naked walking the Kokoda trail. If the heart yarn was a smear, it was a case of smear thyself on national TV.

    Rudd put this furphy to rest on the floor of the house yesterday, when he put on the record what he told Sunrise: that he had benefited from organ donation. That’s all. No mention of which organ, what condition.

    All further medical details seems to have been leaked. It’s quite reasonable for Macklin, Albanese, Rudd, Howard, Abbott and Costello to ask where the leak came from. And quite reasonable to expect them to answer.

    I won’t dwell on Price’s provocative and emotive turns of phrase such as “screeching smear campaign”(sic), “Captain Happiness”, ” collective whimpering “, “shriekfest” etc.

  42. Price seems to have had a total distaste to Rudd all year regardless of the merits or otherwise of Rudd as politician and Leader.

    So what is the point of his journalism if it doesn’t appear to deal with realities or give a reasoned logical backing to opinions? The same goes for many other sycophant journalists that publish ‘opinion’ without reasoned support. Such journalisn is simply PR or Marketing. AND newspapers that set out their papers and stories that blatantly give a positive picture to one side and condemn another is also Marketing and PR – not news.

    It is not surprising then that people who do pay a little interest in politics begin to stop buying the newspapers in question. Thats a large market they are playing with. I guess if officialdom wont make papers accountable it will have to be the market place that does/will.

  43. I have no problems with Matty’s piece I just don’t think he hits any important points at all.

    Labor were clearly trying to acheive a number of things:

    # paint the government as having finished governing and just into nasty election and smear mode – no plan for the future
    # after the tax gaffe were quite happy to have a break from the focuse on Kevine
    # make the most of the heart and nazi smear, and lets be honest if Matty got one thing right it is the heart thing is a nothing to everyone. Smears have worked for Labor all year, they were just trying to wrap two smears into one and leave the week with another poll boost.

    I guess part of the plan too was an attack on Costello as Rudd seemed to deliver that quite strongly. I noted above I think Rudd looking angry and passionate, like strippergate, will be a net positive for Labor.

    And Glen’s contorted logic might get some sympathy if the Govt dirt unit had not being trying one failed smear after the other.

    Nothing I object to in Matty’s litte piece, just I think he is in the forrest and a bit confused it was pretty simple tired angry stuff on both sides yesterday, and both sides went for the sympathy vote. We will see who gets it. I love the Government revival theme, so long as it is all an illusion.

  44. @ 83 Glen Says:

    And why would the Government spike their own story?
    Who would have wanted to spike the Government’s story? Simple the ALP!

    Comrade, the coalition’s apparent enthusiasm for shooting themselves in the feet cannot have escaped the attention of a man as perceptive and insightful as yourself.

  46. “Question to the Labor supporters…

    If Rudd’s condition was known many years ago as he himself gave an interview on Sunrise where he mentioned his transplant then how is any of this a smear regardless who made the comment? “

    Well, I’m a Labor supporter. I regard myself as failr in tune. And I didn’t have a clue about Rudd’s heart condition. I had no idea at all about him having a transplant – specific body part or not.

    Few people knew about his heart operation except his doctor and the hospital staff who assisted in the operation.

    Until the day before yesterday.

  47. Jasmine_Anadyr – I’m with you. I think the Coalition looked like a bunch of muck-raking bully boys. Rudd dealt with it all really well and Gillard was devestating.

    The so-called Rudd tax gaffe has mostly passed by ignored, certainly by the “don’t really give a shit about politics” swinging (but usually fairly conservative) voters I know. And lots of busy people don’t have time to read papers or even watch the news every night, so those who do only catch up with the news every now and then might not even know about this, particularly as it seems to have died a death as an issue.

    Added to this is that both Howard and Costello effed up themselves on the precise detail of taxation questions that were put to them, so the Libs can’t really trade on the Rudd slip-up anyway.

    In any case, I suspect the bully boy behaviour will be the thing that those people who were paying attention will remember the most.

    And, by the way, are the Government stupid or what? They’ve given the Labor Party beautiful footage of aggressive body language to use it their election ads. You don’t use the sound; you have an appropriate voice-over talking about them being unfit to govern, out of ideas, generally unpleasant etc. Lots of potential there…

  48. For Antony Green re your ABC guide – Gil Duthie was member for Wilmot from 1946 to 1975 (not 1943), hence his memoirs “I Had 50,000 BOSSES: Memoirs of a Labor Backbencher 1946-1975.”.

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