Morgan’s now-weekly face-to-face poll, from a sample of 844, shows Labor’s two-party preferred lead narrowing from 59-41 to 56.5-43.5. The Coalition’s primary vote is up from 36 per cent to 39.5 per cent, and Labor’s down from 51 per cent to 49.5 per cent.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
View all posts by William Bowe
WorkingMan, the only thing the person you refer to believed in was her hereditary right to be a member of Parliament. She should have been dumped years ago. Furthermore your new member is not from Melbourne, he was born in Sydney and went to Baulkham Hills High. He has a degree in mining engineering and is a very good fit for that seat. Furthermore he is an extremely smart and hard-working guy and will be a Cabinet minister fairly soon. He will give your area a standard of representation it hasn’t had for years.
As much as this smear is designed to insinuate that Labor is behind it, I don’t think we can ignore that it represents some pretty serious infighting for the Libs. This looks like factional politics to me.
Tim maybe someone should tell Al Gore what the Labor states are doing on Climate Change…
Desalination Plants, Coal fired Power Stations, Pulp Mills, Freeways… Yep i look forward eagerly to Labor making a difference in this area…
BxTom
“I think that the attempt at a smear is the news, not the content of the smear itself.”
You are correct, the fact that it was a faction of the Liberal Party spreading the smear is the news. Shows how divided the right and moderate wings really are.
BxTom (@599):
I agree. After looking at the “evidence” on Landeryou’s site, its dodgy at best. But if it was designed to set up the Labor party, why did they give the file to at least 3 journalists, 2 of which refused to run with it?
That’s what is so confusing. If it is an attempt at a stitch-up of Labor, it’s very very clumsy.
marky marky,
Gore was comparing Federal Labor’s policy with Howard’s, not the states’ actions.
WorkingMan4Howard at #597:
What are you, 12 years old? Try to act like a grown up you big baby.
I also had a look at the ‘evidence’ at landeryou’s site and it is certainly not the work of any professional political operatives. It looks like the work of the type of wacko that seem to be attracted to political parties due to a belief that they should be more powerful then they are.
On the last federal election campaign I worked on I think I had three or four things like this given to me about our opponent, each time by party members who weren’t quite with reality but desperately wanted to be ‘on the inside’, I just threw them in the bin.
The amazing thing about this is that a journalist ran it, my feeling is that the only person more likely to lose their job this year then the PM is any idiot that runs this as real news.
Adam, you obviously correctly identified my description of “a union boss from Melbourne” as Greg Combet. That is what he is, and all he will ever be, as far as we are concerned here in Lake Macquarie, on the NSW Central Coast.
I have also read in the media that Combo is eager to catch up with old friends from Sydney.
I might remind you that Sydney is a long way from the Federal Electorate of Charlton, and given the 2 hour train trip or car commute on the congested F3, then our new “local” MP may spend most of his time in Sydney anyways.
We have also read in the MSM about his step-daughter living with his other wife in Melbourne, so she can continue her studies.
Why anyone could think that his Mrs. Combet, or any other members of his family would willingly be uprooted from Victoria, and settle into Charlton is beyond comprehension.
I might also point out that the miners have left Charlton last century, and moved further up the Hunter Valley. Why is this union hack a good fit for the electorate?
As for your revelation that a federal ALP MP, Kelly Hoare, who served from 1998 until the present, almost 10 years, should have been dumped years ago, we must ask how many other ALP members will keep serving when they should have been dumped 10 years ago.
There is perhaps more deadwood than Hoare, and less that burns so brightly, warming the hearts of alternate family arrangements.
The drunken sex request Comcar driver MP scandal was just a punishment for Kelly, for refusing to go quietly for an annointed union thug.
#569 Ashley. Those three union thugs, two of them are real criminals. The ad has been withdrawn.
Glen at 573. Oakes has said specifically he got the material from the Libs and Landeryou is saying the same.
I accept their assertions in this case only because there is no reason for either to be lying and they are certainly putting their reputations on the line. Of course you would rather accept the lies or dissembling of your heroes.
Regardless of what you may think, this whole episode reeks of Liberal in fighting and plain dirty pool. However, if you want to continue deluding yourself, don’t let me stop you.
Workingman4howard,
when you get a chance, go along and meet Combet. you have someone there that will do your electorate a lot of good, whether you like his philosophy or not.
Everyone here appears to be a rusted on supporter of their own political party. I’ve enjoyed the opportunity to set that aside and take in other’s opinions. Lets not make it personal.
Anyone seen Possums latest article: “Crimes against Psephology”.
The first line is a corker – still has me laughing.
I’ll still stick to the theory that it’s the religious right thats doing the dirty work. Opus Dei runs the NSW Liberal Party. This is a way to remove unwanted members before the big crash. This makes it easier for the christian right to take over the Liberal Party after the election.
This is good because back in the 50’s reds under the beds kept the ALP out for a long time. Christian fundamentalists may keep the ALP in for a long time.
Agree Chris B. Having seen the religious right at work in the US in years gone by, the m.o of this operation smells just like their stuff. One more reason we have to vote the Libs out, get rid of these monkeys …..
Greensb. Growler – Thanks for link to Landeryou’s site. I have bookmarked it in my “election stuff” folder.
Tim
yes agree and they are perhaps superior still wondering what they are exactly but the track record for the labor movement as a whole is pathetic…
These policies the State Labor Governments are putting forward are a part of the process of Climate Change and they literally are doing very little.
Victoria has the worst record in the world yes in the world on a percapita basis regarding greenhouse gas emissions.. and it continues to generate the gases…
And remember Carbon dioxide stays in the atmosphere… just does not magically disappear for up to one hundred years… so the world will continue to get hotter… and what are doing… for the future in Victoria.. and New South Wales.. .Coal fired power stations extend their lifes and build more.. .Desalination plants, with the one in Victoria costing 3 billion dollars… why not recycled water, water tanks in every home and stormwater saving water.. put simply we must allow the government to get revenue from peoples homes…
Yes Rowan, I will try to meet Combo, as it is good to try and get on with the rich and powerful.
I am a little scared by his posters on every bus shelter in the electorate.
I keep seeing fresh blood dripping from his bad teeth, and terrible dental arrangement, after what he did to our local MP, Kelly Hoare.
If you pay to have your advertisements on bus shelters, then either you cannot find anyone who likes you enough to put a poster in their front yard, or you are desperate for the only people that read them, the NSW bus commuters.
Unfortunately it is actually personal, and our local Labour Member will lose her job, her house, and her family.
Her father, Bob Brown (the other one) has already been expelled from the ALP, after he commented on a State Election issue about a dis-endorsed ALP Member, Bryce Gaudry.
Many other local ALP members have also been sacrificed for this union thug from Melbourne, The Combine.
We will continue to fight valliantly against The Combine Forces.
Your thoughts and prayers are most appreciated. Thank you.
OK Marky marky… what policies of the states oppositions parties (link please) do you think do the job better than what has already been done?
The federal ALP has policies (ratify kyoto being one), and the federal liberals have ‘aspirational targets’ which it has no intention of meeting.
But keep talking about climate change… the more you talk about it, the more it’s clear the ALP owns the issue.
Could the disgraceful and completely unwarranted smear be the work of an Exclusive religious sect which has close ties to the PM?
Just a thought.
Back on psephology (gay bath houses aside…..)
Predictions for Galaxy?
I think it will be 55-45 ALP.
Question to those in the know: How often will there be polls during the OFFICIAL election campaign? Will it be as normal?
If the Libs (through Milne) tried to stitch up Labor with this bath house thing to make them look dirty, Glenn Milne is devious, stupid or both….
Back to the second half of the footy…..
As often as they can churn them out.That’ll probably mean weekly, but we’ll also have fringe (but still quality) research organisation putting polls out as well, plus the interesting Yougov giving us stuff probably every few days.
Just received an email newsletter from Turnbull. I can’t work out how he got my email address, but it wasn’t by legitimate means… it’s the address I use for submitting to websites where I’m likely to get spammed.
Anyway, it usually makes for amusing reading… such as this corker: “The Sydney Declaration at APEC was a genuine climate change breakthrough”. In this edition Malcolm is desperately trying to paint himself green. Here’s the first part of the intro:
“Dear ___,
A lot has happened since the last newsletter. On the climate change front we have had APEC and the Sydney Declaration as well as the announcement today of a new Clean Energy Target – 30,000 gigawatt hours by 2020 and of course we have launched our Climate Clever campaign which encourages households and businesses to use energy more efficiently. Remember, the cleanest power station is the one we never have to build!”
Pi i mentioned the water issue as one area… But your right there is nothing from the Liberal side of politics..
They will and i agree with you, make things much worse.. but i actually thought that the Labor Party was the party of reform and future but look at what it is doing… Question Pi ? ask yourself where as a nation are we heading as a part of this world on this issue? The arctic melting… islands in the pacific are being inundated and soon other low lying lands around the world will be to.. Ask are these the right policies? You must always question things and i am afraid people are accepting things to much… Put simply we must start making changes now… And Pi read Tim Flannerys’ book and you will see how serious an issue this is…
marky marky You sound just like the Liberal machine. Blame everything onto the states. Even if Global Warming is the Federal Governments domain. Never let the facts get in the way of a good story.
WorkingMan4Howard Says:
September 23rd, 2007 at 3:46 pm
“The unions have never done anything for us. ”
Really. Who gave us this below, “against bitter opposition from organised employer groups and conservative governments” over the last 100 years, (ever heard of the Harvester agreement?)
# Reduced working hours from 48 to 38 per week
“# Annual leave from one week to four weeks
# Equal pay
# Superannuation from a right enjoyed by a privileged few to a broad based award entitlement
# Long service leave
# The concept of a minimum wage below which no one should be employed
# Maternity leave and carers’ leave
# Redundancy pay”
UNIONS AND THE COMMONWEALTH CONCILIATION AND ARBITRATION COMMISSION/TRIBUNAL since 1904 when legislation was passed setting up the latter.
You need to read Bob Hawke’s article (citations above) at the Evatt Foundation website.
Your ignorance is palpably obvious.
http://evatt.org.au/publications/papers/151.html
Ashley, don’t you think these Federal MP newsletters should be personally paid for by your local MP?
They seem to concentrate on pictures of the MP with all sorts of gullible people, without addressing any of the real issues of our nation.
Let them pay for their propaganda.
I am a Labor Voter in the tradition of Dunstan, Whitlam and Cain.. Who actually wants to do things for a better worl for everyone, infortunately we have lost that and blaming the States.. on this issue i will because it is a critical issue.. the environment and having studied economics at university you cannot have an economy without the environment and unfortunately the policies are killing it…
Finally its about hypocrisy of parties Chris. What again does the Labor Party Stand for these days…
just how much would the govt pay for a good poll. it would be worth a million
Ashley do you live in Wentworth? If you do then someone must be linking ISP info to email accounts (I doubt an IP address could be linked to most electorates).
marky marky, the problem is punishing a party of the centre left, by supporting a party of the centre-right.
Will either of the lib-lab parties change their policies according to your vote?
I would suggest voting for Al-Quaeda and the extremist parties of your own nation.
with love,
Uncle Osama.
Peter that line is perpetuated by people continually…
Well summed up.. The problem is some in the union movement actually fall for it us well when it comes to listening to labor parties policies…
ruawake,
she has obviously filled out a survey, and given her email address to the jews in turnbulls’ office.
Chris B (615),
In the fifties, the reds were not “under the bedsâ€. They were in mainland China, Eastern Europe, North Korea and (for a time) South Korea. What kept Labor out of office was the foolish decision by the Left controllers to expel anti-communist members from the party – a mistake the Labor Party will not make again.
WorkingMan4Howard
You are on my ignore list 😉
I asked a day or two ago but either no one knew or it slipped through unnoticed. Will the Monday 1 October ACN still be out on schedule seeing as how half the country is on holiday that day?
Gerard McManus in yesterday’s Herald Sun wrote a featured piece illustrating the magnitude of the difference in the polls, using my compilation data. There were bar graphs and everything, it looked very pretty. For all interested parties it’s here:
http://www.ozelection2007.info/forums/viewtopic.php?id=663
[#630 ruawake Says:
Ashley do you live in Wentworth? If you do then someone must be linking ISP info to email accounts (I doubt an IP address could be linked to most electorates).
Yes I’m in Wentworth. Some liberal party hack probably got the email address from one of the local organisations/clubs that I’m a member of (eg. gym, theatre etc).
Isn’t that a breach of privacy laws?
Yeah right Marky Marky. Your were a Labor part voter, sure. With the Neo Conservatism in this country going on, you claim to not know what the Labor party stands for? I have voted Liberal, Labor, Green and Democrats. But at the moment I could not get far away enough from the Liberals. I voted Liberal quite happily when they were moderate. The same with the Democrats until they voted for the GST and sold out, after being infiltrated by the conservatives.
WorkingMan4Howard,
Remarks such as your most recent post are deeply offensive and derogatory.
William,
Please ban that anti-Semitic moron post-haste.
Chris Curtis. And the Liberals ran a scare campaign about reds under the bed. As in the US with McCarthyism. Its about time the ALP had an issue similar without the same evil consequences.
This idea that that Howard is getting Rudd’s measure is BS.
I think it’s kind of sad when we only have one or two pro-Liberal supporters on this website who have even a smidgen of credibility. I hope this changes when the Liberal Party is in opposition because it’s certainly not good for accountability.
Positives about a bad Galaxy is that it might make Howard call it a little earlier.
Actually i do know… but when it is power it hides the platform in the cupboard…
I am a Labor member Chris B and have been for a long time.. I am not yes person though.. Love to speak the mind and say what i think…
Further to that Chris Curtis the Liberals probably won’t expel Opus Dei members.
Done.
marky marky That good to hear your mind. So do I, if you can’t guess.
And the Storm are through…
Back to what I was saying, has anyone heard any leaks about what the poll is going to be tomorrow?
Please, call the election now. I’m getting sick of this, and so are all of the voters. I am a swinging voter, I have no real affinity for any party. I already know who I’m going to vote for, and a vast majority of others already know. I always try to talk about issues from a neutral point of view.
The whole thing is getting tedious. I think someone on Insiders said that don’t want the election called, they want it over.
Enough already. Call it and get it over with. Howard might be trying to save his own hide, but he is torturing the voters.
I don’t usually express views like this, but I am fed up.
Yours Sincerely
SirEggo
Frustrated voter
PS Go Casey Stoner!
624 marky marky says Says: September 23rd, 2007 at 5:14 pm
Ratifying Kyoto would be a good start, though, wouldn’t it? And I’m quite clear about what this would mean to Australia. Most importantly, I am quite clear about what it would mean to investments in technology that reduced emissions.
That’s what Kyoto will provide us. The business investment that will allow investment into technology that will assist in the reduction of emissions… regardless of whether you’re in the 3rd world or not. Because if there’s money in it, people will do it.
One major party wants to ratify Kyoto… the other doesn’t. If the environment is important to you, you’ll vote for the party that will ratify Kyoto.