Morgan’s now-weekly face-to-face poll, from a sample of 844, shows Labor’s two-party preferred lead narrowing from 59-41 to 56.5-43.5. The Coalition’s primary vote is up from 36 per cent to 39.5 per cent, and Labor’s down from 51 per cent to 49.5 per cent.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
View all posts by William Bowe
Pi… what tags are used for blockquote on this site?
[blockquote] what you want quoted [/blocquote]
And substitute >
you use the greater than and less than symbols to house the blockquote text.
Julie at 636:
“Will the Monday 1 October ACN still be out on schedule seeing as how half the country is on holiday that day?”
That’s a very good question.I’d imagine so – doesn’t broadsheet circulation improve on public holiday Mondays… or am I confusing it with something else?
Howard won’t call the election until after both Footy Grand Finals. The Rodent loves to present the trophies. Hopefully he’ll get booed by the crowds.
Laurie Oakes on Channel 9 News: dropped Milne and News Ltd further in it HA HA.
My hunch is that David Clarke, Alex Hawke and their band of religious right wing nutbags are behind this latest smear campaign.
Al Gore backing Rudd: Wow!
Agree Pi but did you know that some countries who ratified Kyoto actually used excessively more emissions than what was targeted… Canada for example..
Ratifying it will act as a prelude to change but long term targets such as reducing Gases 50% by 2050 are gimmicky crap from Labor.. targets should set at 2015 perhaps 25% and we must start now… But Pi can’t you see the hypocrisy in the overall Labor movements approach to this issue or are you another marketing spokesperson on behalf of the Labor Party who does not or has not got the courage to criticise…
Go the Storm(because I hate Manly) and Geelong.
Nice one, thanks. Do bold and italics work too?
Wow! indeed did you get a ticket to $ 1000 ahead talk fest and no action summit Howard Hater…
Marky Marky: No, I didn’t.
liberal self smear is on channel 7&9 sites. also Chn 7 poll – do u think there will be smear campaign? Yes 798 No 90
Al Gore backs Rudd. Howard runs pathetic ads on Global Warming. And his new policy is lets roll all the states laws into one, and leave everything as it is. In other words do nothing. Even blind Freddie could see through that one. After all, he still is a skeptic!
I can’t imagine Johnny will have too many friends if he shows up at the AFL Grand Final next Saturday. You can’t get much more working class than Geelong v Port Adelaide. (Go the Power!)
My money is still being used to help the re-election of a government I want to see gone. Makes me more dtermined to see the gorn. I wonder if it has the same effect on many other people.
Howard Hater: can’t find a link to Oakes’ latest and missed Ch. 9 news… can you expand on “Laurie Oakes on Channel 9 News: dropped Milne and News Ltd further in it HA HA.”?
Thanks
Bushfire,
Ch. 9 news showed a clip from Sunday, with Oakes saying to Gillard (regarding the allegations): “they were fed to me by a Liberalâ€.
Ch. 7 news, on the other hand, left the impression that the smear was a Labor job.
#643 said
“This idea that that Howard is getting Rudd’s measure is BS.”
MY view, something is changing. I agree Howard hasn’t got Rudd’s measure, but I think the media finally is
William, very glad to see you have banned that lunatic.
I think many people who mainly just read the posts and links will be very grateful. Thank you.
Yahoo 7 poll now Yes-1513; No-86; Undecided-41.
The Government adds are swamping the TV at present. Oh how I am sick of the terrible waste of public money that could be put to much better use than attempting to give Howard and Hyacinth another 3 years at Kirabilly.
I notice many posters are sick and tired of the wait. Noticed on Insiders that the 3 Tasmanians were also sick of it. I bet it is a fairly general feeling of “enough already”.
Please Howard, get on with it and get it over with
Thanks Fagin, I was hoping there’s been, as they say, “new revelations”.
Incidentally, ABC Sydney TV news showed Gillard’s denial, but not Oakes’ illuminating comment about the source being a Liberal.
The Sunday-Mail ran the story, but omitted even Milne’s rider that the source was not Labor. When quizzed about this on the (laughingly-called) “blog” they ran in conjunction with the story, the editor said they “didn’t have enough room” to print the information that Labor was not the source: they left out the exact ten words that totally reversed the import of story for reasons of space! The Mail also never mentioned Oakes’ information.
So we were left with a story, the main point of which was that there was a “gay minister” leak BUT that Labor was not the source – in fact it was the Liberals themselves – that instead totally implicated Labor by omitting conclusive information.
Queensland journalism standards: Beautiful one day, ratshit the next.
I bet Howard almost choked when he found out that the Aussies got knocked out of the 20/20 World Cup.
Another opportunity gone to show off his support for winning Aussie sporting teams.
Bet he is having a nervous wait to see how the Wallabies go.
It all could be seen as a bad omen.
Go the STORM!!!! Let’s flog those Sea Eagles.
And go the ALP!!!! Let’s flog those Libs.
Why has my post about the Parramatta Sun online poll been suppressed?
The Melbourne Age and the Herald Sun both have run the stories on the net pointing to the Liberals. Which means the papers will have it in the morning. Its going to be everywhere. Yahoo!!!!
Question: Does anyone think receiving political advertising in the mail actually shift many votes? I spent an hour and a half today letter-boxing material that was basically designed to introduce the candidate to the electorate. It was good exercise, and I felt that I was helping out in a small way, but who thinks such material actually switches votes, and if so, why?
My family usually throw such material straight into the bin!
It hurts to say this, but I hope the Wallabies get knocked out of the World cup; I don’t want Howard to have any reason to smile.
I thought the World Cup was over – didn’t we get knocked out by Italy?
No, he will be there . It is one of the expected spots that people look to see him *at*. I.e would look BAD if he wasn’t there. He wants to avoid shooting himself in the foot any more than necessary with the election around the corner. (Probably will be on the plane Saturday night in order to get to the Telstra Stadium here in Sydney for the NRL game Sunday night). If he is smart though, he will only be in the crowd and be “available” for the obligatory tv shot. If he insists on being available for the presentations after the game, he will be booed big time. As I noted a few days ago, that exact scenario eventuated last year in Melbourne at the A-League GF when he was on the field during presentation with the Victory. I am studiously avoiding the GF this year though so after the national anthem, I am out of the lounge room. My team got put out this weekend so no interest here :(.
Julie. Any idea where I can get Hillary stuff in OZ?
Actually Adam, the big World Cup game is on SBS tonight: Matildas v Brazil in the quarter final of the Women’s Football World Cup.
This is one bandwagon Howard can steer clear of, thank you very much.
Go Girls!
Chris B. – define “Hillary stuff”, that would be more helpful? Then I might have an idea ….
I don’t know if I missed it or not, but I didn’t see any panning of the camera on Rudd at the Cowboys/Manly game last night.
Must have been an oversight.
Howard apparently is a big fan of Manly since St George got knocked out.
Go the Storm next weekend.
Posters and jumpers with Hillary for pres. As in The NY Times online now.
Chris B, it might be easier to get Kevin07 tee shirts and posters.
Adam, did your Parramatta Sun poll post say anything about loans or insurance? I’ve got some reasonably loose spam blocking on such terms.
Yeah. I can get those easy.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5v4gOnwHmxo
This is the third interview with a Liberal candidate I have seen in which they have nominated “hoons” and “graffiti” as major issues in their electorates. Hello? These are council issues or local police issues, they have nothing whatever to do with federal politics. Obviously Liberal state offices are telling candidates to run on these issues, as though they are running for the local council, since presumably some focus group has told them that people don’t like hoons and graffiti (duh). They’ll be running against noisy neighbours and barking dogs next. It’s also a good way of dodging real national issues like WorkChoices, which their focus groups are no doubt telling them are poison.
(She’s also unbelievably dull – how did this person ever get elected in the first place?)
William, yes there was a lot of advertising on the page that I linked to, which I suppose explains it. Anyway, the result was Owens (Labor) 50%, Robinson (Liberal) 33%. Great news for Labor, except that only 12 people voted, one of them me.
@ 585 WorkingMan4Howard(butimreallyalibmsstaffer) Says on September 23rd, 2007 at 3:46 pm
Except fair pay and decent conditions.
Ermm people move all the time from state to state these days. Besides I thought that according to der Fuehrer that Federalism iis sooo 20th century..
Better Liberal buggery than Union thuggery eh?
William,
Please hook Chris B. up OFF this blog on personal email with my personal email so he can email me privately so we can discuss about Hillary clothing etc. further.
Cheers, Julie 🙂
** Chris, I have bookmarked a site {it is a USA site, but they will ship internationally}, will pass along to you in due course, email me from the address William will give to you, don’t want to hassle others bandwidth by taking this further here publically. I have used the same site in 2004 to order “anti-Bush” clothing so trust them.
The Libs haven’t taken long to run hard with the allegation of impropriety by the TWU.
Talk about being convicted before a trial. I thought Howard was a Lawyer.
{Prime Minister John Howard said the union had been caught out in a conspiracy with companies to rob workers of their entitlements.
“The union itself has denied benefits for workers, and I think (Opposition Leader Kevin) Rudd has to answer some questions about this because the TWU is a major donor to the Australian Labor Party,” Mr Howard said.
Federal Workplace Relations Minister Joe Hockey weighed in soon after, promising a government investigation to get to the bottom of the claims.
Mr Hockey said there could be tax and corporations law breaches involved with the scam, the money from which is used to employ Labor staffers.
“The secret fund made up of dirty money is going straight into the coffers of the Labor Party,” Mr Hockey said.
“According to allegations made today, this fund is being well oiled by unions negotiating for lower pay for workers.”}
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=298570
Ecpect them to run hard with this for the next week. It might be one of the so-called “smoking guns” that they hinted at earlier.
Wow…the member for Petrie sounds bored and kinda sleepy. How many times did she say “climate change”? Yeah, she sounds really informed about the issues and stuff…you know, climate change is a concern…for people….
Thanks.
Adam,
Thanks for the posting. The member for Petrie is one incredible yawn. The voice and the visuals are so dreary they could be run as satire by her opponents. Pity the poor voters of Petrie: be bored numb or hooned out.
690 Scorpio. This sound exactly like a Liberal Party dirt file. So I wonder how much the Liberal Party is involved in it? Going on current findings. They already have the form on the board, so I would be checking their sources thoroughly.
The waste of public funds on the Liberal Party’s re-election is so in-your-face it is making me ill. Across all channels, around the clock, day in day out. Newspapers, bus shelters, billboards, junk mail .. ugh. Big Brother would have nothing on the propaganda tenacity of this dark mob.
Howard has been cagey about what all this is costing us. I can’t understand why there isn’t a more palpable welling of public anger. When do we see an inquiry to get to the bottom of it, right down to the last dollar, how much this shameful waste is costing.
If the propaganda isn’t bad enough, we are also presented with the bill for the pork-barrelling that’s already started and about to really roll in the weeks before election.
Meanwhile, more of the trademark Liberal dirty politics that is disgracing our standards and entrenching contempt for the system.
And after all this abomination, if the Liberals get over the line, who knows what extreme legislation they will dump on us next. More perverse manifestations of the ideologically extreme, shoved down our necks.
Words almost fail me. These Liberals are an utter disgrace. Every day this government continues to impose itself on us, the more determined I am to vote them out and keep them out.
No wonder the Libs are polling so badly.
The Federal Libs must be short of cash for this campaign as the QLD Libs have decided to not run a candidate in Beattie’s old seat.
Clearly, the disarray in the State Lib Branches is having some effect on the Federal situation.
They are so cash strapped that there is no way they are in any position to help out either with cash or resources.
{Queensland union boss Grace Grace looks set for a smooth ride to state parliament after the Liberal Party said it would not pit a candidate against her in a by-election next month.}
{Liberal deputy state director Peter Epstein on Sunday confirmed the party’s state council had voted not to contest the October 13 poll, preferring to maintain its focus on the federal election.
“It’s a strategic decision to focus on the federal campaign so we wouldn’t divert resources, manpower or money away from that. There’s a lot more at stake,” he said.}
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=296354
i cant decide which is wñrse Price’s blog yesterday or Milne’s attempt to smear labor. Milne’s was child quality journalism, Price, spiteful junk. Not much difference between them now.
Chris B Says:
September 23rd, 2007 at 8:20 pm
690 Scorpio. This sound exactly like a Liberal Party dirt file. So I wonder how much the Liberal Party is involved in it?
Chris B; I think the Libs are so transparent with their smear and inuendo now, that there could be no doubt that this has been cooked up by Crosby and Textor as just part of a major campaign strategy for this election.
Tony Abbott and Joe Hockey as well as Downer have telegraphed that this is going to be a major focus of the campaign.
Handled smartly by Labor, it should be fairly easy to counter and shone back on to the Libs.
It’s about all they have left and is, I believe, a stupid strategy, doomed to failure.
Maybe it’s naivety on my part, but why do these journos (Milne and Co) continue to fawn to Howard? Even if you are someone who desperately wants the Howard regime to continue, taking self-delusion into account, wouldn’t a glance at the polls tell you that this government may not continue? Wouldn’t you be looking with hopeful eyes at the Opposition, trying to curry favour? I understand that if a journo is right wing, a Labor government isn’t a happy prospect, but for self-preservation alone, is it a good idea to keep doing Howard’s dirty bidding? Or maybe the Liberals are the only ones still talking to Milne?
A funny thing about the Labor candidate for Brisbane Central, Beattie’s old seat, is that even though the Libs have decided to not run a candidate, they still had the cheek to point out that Grace Grace, the Labor candidate is a neice of Fitzgerald Brothel identity, Gerry Ballino.
Funny thing that. I have been a Labor supporter and Unionist since 1966, long before Grace was even born and I had never heard that before.
It just proves that the Lib dirt unit tentacles spread widely. It’s going to get harder and harder for Howard to distance himself from all the dirt that is going to be thrown about by the Libs over the next couple of months.