Newspoll: 55-45

Seven News has reported that the most keenly awaited opinion poll in recent memory, tomorrow’s Newspoll, will show “a significant shift back to the Coalition” from last fortnight’s 59-41.

UPDATE: The ABC now reports the Coalition has “clawed back eight points”, hence the new headline.

UPDATE 2: Report up at the News site confirms the headline figure, without providing further detail.

UPDATE 3: Graphic here. Note the intriguing resilience of the Prime Minister’s ratings on performance approval and preferred Liberal leader.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

642 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45”

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  1. This poll just doesn’t sit right.
    Nothing has happened in the last week which would give the Coalition its best primary result since mid Feb!
    This Newspoll has Coalition primary at 41%.
    Fifteen consecutive Newspolls has them at 40% or less and all other polls recently give no indication of any resurgence at all.
    At the lower end, this one for sure.

  2. I do worry about Wayne Swan as Shadow Treasurer: I wish Rudd had appointed someone else. Costello usually makes mincemeat out of Swan.

  4. ifonly: I agree. The day Howard stood up to the party I thought it did him good. But I thought he undid it the following day with his team stuff. But that could be the only explanation I can think of, one would have to wait for some more polls to see if it is needed. But I certainly can’t accept just because a poll shows a high Labor number it is ‘unsustainable’ and an ‘outlier’. Pundits have been saying that all year and they have been wrong.

    I would still like to see Shanahan explain it though, cos he will find it hard to say the last Newspoll was an outlier.

  6. Mr Squiggle, surely to win the Coalition primary vote has to be at least slightly ahead of Labor’s, given the likely split of Greens preferences? One more point won’t do it.

  7. ALP needs to get some of those female unionists out there, Sharan Burrow not included. Those ads with real people – particularly the normal-looking females – really work. Get Maxine McKew off the telemarketing and onto the telly.

  11. “Man the decks! Hoist the Main’sl! Put those newspapers away!” Roared Captain Hamster, “Prepare to bring her about! Fire up the Cannons! Bring me a cool looking hat!!” Boomed the newly promoted Co-Captain Peter Petulant, his smirk not missing a beat.

    In the frenzy, none had realised that the first volley had completely missed the ship, but as the wind quickly filled the sails and the schooner lurched to starboard and the bow swung around uneasily all the crew could think of were staying alive.

    Things were tight and Captain Rudder’s voice was drowned out by other crew on the forecastle deck, closer to them, screaming taunts:
    “Burkurk!, Burkurk!, Bururk, yellow blaaaaady chickens, call a war y’scurvy dogs” called the little Booksmith, waving what appeared to be a penknife,
    “Dance with us you spineless, pasty-face sailor-boys!!” Snarled Ms Lanyard, her flame red hair standing up oddly
    “You guys… are silly, so there!!” Attempted Droll Jack Swan somewhat feebly.
    Captain Rudder was seething. Every cannon ball cost him money and though the workers had been stockpiling them, he was reluctant to waste even one on an over-ambitious broadside.

    Nevertheless, the war had started and he felt adrenalin coursing through his veins, he had the upper hand and the enemy was on the run… Still, some reinforcements would make good insurance…

    “Send me a telegram Ms Lanyard!!!” He barked over the rowdy din, “It’s time to teach these vermin a lesson!!!!”. His limp fringe was still annoying him and he felt warm sweat seeping into his bum-crack. He thought he could realllly enjoy this war caper.

    A lopsided grin eased its way across his round face.

  13. Possum’s analysis of the quarterly data, the pollycide series, goes beyond applying a uniform swing and points out that some of the Liberal safer seats are in danger. A 7% swing will provide more seats than a uniform calculator predicts. The governments firewall tactic also admits to that.

    So Green’s caculator might actually represent the worst case scenario for Labor for a particular % swing.

  17. Glen has been stuck in the bunker for so long waiting for relief from General Waenk (biological spelling) only to be let down by Howard’s obvious lack of election. Must be his age…

    It seems to me that whenever there is leadership speculation it helps Howard. Whenever the Libs engage in their favourite sport of Ruddbashing, his approval goes up or as in this case stays high.
    The Libs have tried this since December and yet the Ruddster is more popular than that other part time shared leader Howard.

    As long as the Libs let Dolly put out the garbage every week, they are losing as she sounds more like a garbo than a minister of the crown.

  18. I know what it must have been like to be a Labor supporter in the 1950s…it sucks the Coalition needs such a high primary vote to win elections whereas the ALP just get the Greens preferences to flop over the line in many seats…ah it sucks….

    Heheheh Brown says he wants to be on the debate lol good luck mate you can debate Allison and Fielding in a minor party debate lol!

  19. #97 Mr Squiggle, very valid point, re.the significance of this poll. The slight chance that Howard was going to be have to stand down (68-32)? has passed. The game is on.

    Can`t really sympathise with the Downer thing though. Just one of those blokes you`re very glad plays for the other team. Imagine if the HoR had a pre-season draft and the ALP management…oh doesn`t bear thinking about.

  20. 198 Mr Squiggle

    Just replayed it

    Tony said
    55/45 TPP

    Govt has gained ground in primary vote but still sits 6 points behind Labor

    Rudd 48/38 preferred PM

  22. I don’t get this.
    Since the last poll Howard and Costello have flapped around like two dying fish who have accidentally jumped out of their bowl.
    Now the polls go towards them.

  23. [Heheheh Brown says he wants to be on the debate lol good luck mate you can debate Allison and Fielding in a minor party debate lol!]

    I see no reason why there can’t be 3 debates, with the first debate for all party leaders.

  24. [ the first debate for all party leaders ]

    No self respective PM or potential PM would be caught dead in a debate with minor party leaders. It will never happen.

  28. We can be sure there’ll be only one debate, on Channel 9 in the first week of the campaign, hosted by Ray Martin – Howard always gets his way on this.

  29. [We can be sure there’ll be only one debate, on Channel 9 in the first week of the campaign, hosted by Ray Martin]

    Unless Martin decides to resign before the Election is called 🙂

  31. Bad historical analogy Glen. The DLP was a split from Labor where preferences went to the Liberals. The Greens are a split from Labor that come back home (they are really just the Labor left outside the party). The Liberals primary vote is actually the Liberals primary vote.

  32. This is just one of the usual variations we have seen in some of the polls. I reckon the Newspoll TPP would have to be getting close to 57/43 by now. The last set of polls from the various pollsters unanimously indicated that there had been some sort of further swing to Labor. That would not have declined given the recent Govt problems.

    However, lucky for Howard to get a stabalising poll when needed, all within MOE. The true state of affairs can probably be ascertained by watching what each of the parties are up to.

  35. Interesting polling amongst Liberal Leaders.

    [The previous Newspoll sparked panic in government ranks, with Mr Howard forced to stare down senior ministers who had canvassed the idea of replacing him before the election.

    Mr Howard’s determination to remain in the job appears to be well-founded.

    The Newspoll showed Mr Howard was far and away the preferred coalition leader, with 52 percent support, compared with 18 percent for Treasurer Peter Costello and 12 percent for Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull.

    Against Labor leader Kevin Rudd, Mr Howard lifted marginally in the preferred prime minister stakes. ]

    http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22436982-5005361,00.html

  36. My concern is that the Fountain-Gate brigade will see the poll results and decide that Howard is a winner after all, so they better vote for him because this just proves that he really is clever and that.

  37. I expect nothing more from commercial station news. Sensationalism over rational analysis yet again.

    They’ve sucked up to Howard for 11 years. They juuuuuust start doing positive reports on Labor, but the very second that there is any apparent gain for the government in the polls its “Howard is wonderful! He’s going to win now for sure!!!”.

  38. Gleneral Waenk, I take ALP 52-48 to the election any time! I take 1 seat win. I take any victory and I will cry and celebrate and laugh and drink and dance.

  39. John and Hyacinth have just announced they will adopt Pumpkin and that they will have to stay at Kirribilli until she finishes university.

  40. 157

    I used to see a fairly large couple of those billboards during my commute. It was on the roof of a building on a reasonably busy street corner, with a billboard facing each of the two streets. They were up for about a month or so, but were removed roughly a month ago.

    The street corner in question was on the electoral boundary between Chisolm and Higgins (with the billboard on the Higgins side).

  41. Roughly:
    End August/early Sept set:
    Morgan 60/40
    Newspoll 59/41
    Galaxy 57/43

    8/10 September:
    Morgan 60/40
    AC Neilsen 57/43

    Latest set 17 September:
    Nexus phone poll Sydney Melb: Primary 51/36
    Newspoll 55/45

    Result = no real joy for govt and at this stage simply false hope.
    Can’t wait for Possums analysis of the next set of quarterly data.

    Good to see AC Neilsen has at last updated the polls on their site:
    http://au.acnielsen.com/news/200512.shtml

  42. Ahhh, all the mindless fascination with outliers and rogues and trends.

    Who knows what the ‘correct’ number is. A little friend tells me that 2% of the voters are ‘bandwagon voters’. Last week it was Kruddy, this week it is J-Ho.

    Add that to the natural MoE for each poll and you get what we are seeing in the neverending phony campaign. A lot of variability.

    Move along folks, nothing to see here.

  43. It had been a long time. It had been a ridiculously long time. That’s why Chief Bob Down didn’t notice the sound of his bongo-gram going off as his awkward-looking raft struggled to life above water level as it wobbled over each wave. Each log of teak hand selected, many, many years ago, carefully investigated with an autopsy on each one to ensure that it had, in fact, died of natural causes.

    It was hard for him to see through the haze, though it often was, when his crew were consuming their “breakfast” in the late afternoon. It always made him crave Toblerones for some reason. What was strange was that he didn’t even know what one was. Man, those waves sure were groovy this time of day..

    Clarissa Water Tanks wafted over to him with the bongo-gram and flicked her hair provocatively until she remembered that her boss was, well, more of a man’s man and then struck a more formal demeanour,
    “Sir! A message from Captain Rudder. He says he could use a hand. He has declared war!”

    “Oh, so NOW he wants to talk eh? NOW he needs our help!! Ms Kettle, how’s our ammunition?” Enquired Chief Down,
    “43 Coconuts, like a real, enormous pile of Macadamias and two year’s worth of New Internationalists!” She replied, helpfully.
    “perfect!” he muttered, “Ms Tanks, tell our Captain Rudd that we will change course immediately and will be with him in less than two months!!”

    “I do love a war, you know. Though I usually prefer canoes….”

  44. red wombat,

    No one is going to adopt Pumpkin until Kevin Andrews checks out if she is a security risk. She may have to go behind the barbed wire for the next few years. Maybe in Nauru?

  45. I have to let out a derisive snort at the Gnome’s use of Fintan O’Toole’s article on Bertie Ahern’s re-election in Ireland as a lesson for KRudd and The Rodent. It holds no good news for Howard. Bertie’s a crook but he’s a thoroughly likeable crook, and Ireland still votes along lines set down in 1921. You’re Fianna Fail (the majority) or Fine Gael (minority), an odd lefty with delusions of grandeur (Labour) or just plain weird (Progressive Democrats). Not sure how the Sinn Fein vote played out in the recent election but they are gaining big-time in the poor areas of Dublin, Cork city, Limerick and semi-rural Leinster, along with those areas of Ireland affectionately known as ‘bandit country’, (which would be rural Cork and Co Kerry. Oh, and Co Cavan, but no one talks about them.)

    Fine Gael has had a long list of dud leaders, especially John Bruton and Michael Noonan but barring Garrett Fitzgerald, but they did well enough with Enda Kenny. Fine Gael simply must get Labour more on side – Pat Rabbitte has been the most popular politician in Ireland forever, but as I said, most still vote as if it’s 1921. The Irish idolise Michael Collins and deplore Eamon de Valera, but won’t bloody well vote that way.

    O’Toole made a good point here – “Fianna Fail (Ahern’s equivalent conservative party to the Australian Liberals) won a third term not because everything is fine,” argued Fintan O’Toole in The Irish Times, “but because no one else made a convincing case they could make it a lot better.”

    This is true – Ireland has gone through a most revolutionary change in the last 15 years. People still remember the hard times, however, and it was never a situation of one party presiding over hard times and the other over good in recent memory. It was all hard times. And Fianna Fail is not the Irish version of the Libs. It has an enormous working class, union-sympathetic vote, but they still do what their das and their grand-das did – vote against the partition.

  46. 55/45, everyone should take a proverbial cold one.
    Labors best TPP since 1949 was 83 when the Silver Bodgie jagged 53.2%, the mighty Gough managed 52.7% in 72.
    The only TPP’s over 55% were in 66 (56.9%) and 75 (55.7%) by Malcolm where’s ya trousers.
    The disturbing thing about this poll may be that it is the start of something. I’d be happy with more than 50% of the vote in more than 50% of seats as long as Bennalong and Mayo were included, although it would be kind of nice to see Downer as opposition leader so that he could be humiliated a second time.

  48. Wow you guys talk a lot.

    In one way, I’m shocked at this poll result. In another way, I’m not. Shocked because the government didn’t deserve a good poll after last week, not because the better half of me subscribes to Bryan’s view that people don’t change their vote from week to week based on minor political happenings.

    I think 55-45 is the more accurate potrayal of the current political climate – and it probably guarantees an election will be called this weekend. Thank god.

    Now… the question is… what happens if there is more good news for the libs this week? Combined with a scandal in Labor, a tape of Julia Gillard verbally abusing a few prominant businessmen… and a shock resignation? Combined with a 54-46 morgan next week, and a spike of panic from Labor? How will Rudd stand up then?

    Not that I’m suggesting for a minute it will. But I wish it would. I really would like to see Rudd under proper pressure for a few weeks before the election, because it would be about time. And I do like to plant thoughts in your respective heads. Keeps you on your toes.

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