On your marks

Michelle Grattan:

PRIME Minister John Howard is under pressure to call the federal election quickly, after the release of boom economic growth figures that threaten to push interest rates higher by November. Despite another horrendous opinion poll this week showing a potential election wipe-out, Mr Howard yesterday appeared to hint he would go to the polls sooner rather than later. Political pressure on him to do so has been intensified by the latest GDP figures, which show the Australian economy has been growing at its fastest annual pace for three years … With an increased prospect of an interest rate rise in November, many in the Government – which has staked its re-election hopes on its ability to sell its economic credentials – will be wanting the election before the inflation figures come out on October 24, or at least before the Reserve Bank board meeting to be held in early November. That would mean a polling day of October 20 or 27. An October 20 poll would have to be called in about 10 days.

Dennis Atkins:

THE Senate Finance and Public Administration Committee was in Cairns yesterday conducting its inquiry into the Commonwealth Electoral Amendment (Democratic Plebiscites) Bill 2007. This dry piece of parliamentary advice masks an intensely political exercise and explains why John Howard will not call an election the moment his APEC fiesta shuts down next Sunday. The legislation is the stunt law that Howard pulled out of his box of tricks to drive a wedge between Labor leader Kevin Rudd and his fraternal Queensland Premier Peter Beattie … The committee reports on Friday and the Senate will debate the law next Tuesday, when it’s expected to be passed, in time for plebiscites on Beattie’s amalgamations likely on October 20.

Gerard McManus:

THERE was speculation last night that Prime Minister John Howard could delay calling the federal election until November or even as late as early December. Yesterday, Mr Howard gave his strongest hint yet that the election date would not be held in October after declaring that the federal takeover of the Devonport Mersey Hospital would not occur until November 1. Mr Howard said the Tasmanian Labor Government had agreed to the terms of the handover of the hospital in the state’s north and that the documents would be signed between the two governments on that date. Senior Liberal insiders said it would be wrong to assume too much from the announcement, but said a later election was now a genuine possibility. “Nobody knows the date except the Prime Minister, but you would have to think a later election is now a good chance,” a senior government figure said.

Bryan Palmer:

A Canberra insider told me today with absolute certainty that the election would be announced on 13 September. I was told that Howard does not believe he can cut through the political disengagement that has grown up with the last 8 months of pseudo-campaigning. Howard needs a circuit-breaker. In whispered tones, it was also suggested that Howard would rather go to the polls now than face a leadership challenge from Costello, Abbott or Downer – apparently an almost certainty if the Coalition’s poor showing in the opinion polls continues for much longer. According to my source, there would be a longish seven week campaign designed to test Kevin Rudd in the reality of campaign politics (and hopefully expose some Rudd flaws and gaffes). The election would be on 3 November 2007. Living in Canberra, I often hear these (so called) insider rumours. Rarely do they prove true.

Crikey:

Tips and rumours: The election date will be Nov 3. This is based upon the bookings made with Australia Post for mass mailots by the coalition – including in Bennelong. The Coalition recently cancelled their November mailouts and have maintained October ones.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

505 comments on “On your marks”

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  1. I was interested in watching the reaction of the Chinese delegation to Rudd’s Mandarin speech. Maybe they’re the ones making the large bets on ALP candidates in supposedly safe Coalition seats?

    More seriously, it suggested that trade with China and other Asian countries would be a big part of the future Rudd story. Many punters don’t need to be too political to know that there is a lot of potential new business wth China as it continues to open up. I’ll bet Rudd has a little line of Mandarin somewhere that translates more or less as ‘It’s the economy, stupid.’ And don’t forget that George won’t be off the leash for that much longer.

    Rudd got good airplay with APEC when I thought he might not be able to get any. Hopefully the fat lady has had a lesson as well if she’s had time to get to see the opera yet.

  2. Re: Kim and my previous and first post.

    Had just logged on.

    Since looked through the earlier observations. Sticking with mine.

    Don’t want the hard boys. Had enough. Kim in my heart, softly maybe.

  4. #399 Frank Calabrese

    ‘Plus he did so under great personal stress following the news of the death of his Brother (Beazley). You can imagine what a double whammy that was, losing both the leadership and a family member within minutes of each other’.

    Well, remembered Frank. I had forgotten. Underlines my thoughts. Thank you.

  6. [Rudd got good airplay with APEC when I thought he might not be able to get any. Hopefully the fat lady has had a lesson as well if she’s had time to get to see the opera yet.]

    Yeah, but I’m not sure “Leader of the Opposition” translates well to Chinese. 😛

  7. Chaser stunt appears to be a comprehensive security failure.

    They were not actually spotted until they decided of their own accord not to enter the red zone. At no stage were they questioned, if this report is to be believed:

    http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22376204-661,00.html

    The ABC later released a statement saying the team had no intention of entering a restricted zone and had been wearing mock “insecurity passes” that stated the convoy was a joke.

    “It was a piece testing APEC security and the motorcade looked pretty authentic,” the Chaser source said.

    “They approached the green zone, and they just waved them through – much to their amazement, because the sketch was meant to stop there with them being rejected.

    “They were then waved through into the red zone, but rather than go all the way through they made the call to turn around.”

    “Apparently that was the first time the police realised it was not authentic and they swooped in and arrested everybody.”

  8. I think they may get off the charges as well, as the green zone does not become a restricted area until 6pm Friday morning anyway…

  9. Simon,
    I’m sure ‘likely next Prime Minister’ would translate clearly enough for the Chinese. They’d figure that not only is Howard all but gawn, but they’ll be able to yarn with his replacement directly over the phone instead of through interpreters. I’d imagine that they would not be upset at that prospect. Of the competing Australian leaders, Rudd is clearly best placed to deal effectively with both future Chinese and US administrations.

  10. If Howard did go would that mean Costello would go to the polls in December to give him what 3 or so months in the top job….

    I still think Howard wont go but if his party revolts then he’ll go and be the only the second election winning Liberal Prime Minister to be ousted by the party the first being the Honourable John Grey Gorton.

  11. The numerous we looked forward months ago, to experiencing an opera at the stunning venue of the Sydney Opera House.

    Been there often, but not to the opera. No hope that it could equal staging and accoustics of our great Adelaide Festival Centre.

    Tempted only as a before you die thing, notwithstanding.

    Chose which opera with great care.

    But, guess what?

    Cancelled. APEC. Not happy.

  14. There seems to be some pretty frantic back and forth in relation to the Lib leadership_it seems to be there for the taking if Costello has the bottle to step up… if not, he cannot pretend any longer, surely?

  15. (335),

    JC ,

    “Bill Clinton could become VP.
    the constitutional question arises as to whether he could become Pres if say Gore died or resigned while in office. The constitution only says that you may not be elected to office more than twice. it is not tested as to whether he could be come VP as he wouldn’t actually be elected to office, he would just be second in line of sucession”

    Yes, I am well aware that the constitution is not tested in this area. I was applying the leap of logic to realize that were it tested, it wouldn’t pass the test, and so therefore in the end, would not practicallly work. My major in uni was political science.

  16. If Costello were to be given the poisoned chalice now he would become a footnote in Australian History. A bit like Ian Callen the ex-test cricketer. 1 test, no wickets, no runs, no catches. Got a free feed for a few days.

  17. A few posters have commented that there will be no challenge. Has anyone read Janet the skunk’s column in the Oz? If she is turning on the PM, then the devil must be too. Oh that’s right, they’re the same person. Either way, without the devil on his side, things are looking a bit shaky for old mouse man.

    Next thing Piers Ackerman will be voting Green. And Andrew Bolt will still be a ridiculous caricature of himself. Nothing could make that man more of a joke. Not even a U Turn on the man of steel.

    We’ll know it’s really over when Jonesy starts to filter out the neo cons. William, can you get your hands on a few talkback reports from your mates at analysis?

  18. Dogford tha Albrechtson editorial was a disgrace. Who knew her job was as Liberal Party advisor and not as a journalist?

    And she’s on the ABC board? Please…

  19. I’ve never taken a single thing that Albrechtson has ever written seriously. I’d read Shananan or Bolt before I read anything she has to say, and that’s fairly serious. She’s on a par down there with Akerman, and there’s no-one worse than either of them. Happy to have the gist of the article, but I do not want to know the details.

    I realise that an army of grey, fence-sitting journalists would not help the national debate, but jeez, can’t the Oz find someone not quite so far into the wacko extreme right wing?

  20. On Bubba Clinton returning to the Presidency via the V-P role. Most creative hypothetical I’ve see for years! The ‘elected to office’ qualification was presumably deliberately included to avoid the inverse, namely disqualifying a VP who entered office via death/resignation (a la Truman) then was popular enough to win 2 elections.

    On Costello, the only attraction to him of the leadership now is the likelihood that all bets might be off after the election. But if he leads to a thumping defeat, Turnbull or whoever is the new guard will still be able to say ‘time for renewal’.

    You have to feel a tinge sorry for the PM seeing those tv images yesterday. Remember this is the bloke that wanted to curtail Asian immigration, then worked hard to reinvent himself as a pragmatic, can-do-business with Asia leader. His only real gain from APEC so far has been big headlines about signing large deals with China. But now he’s upstaged by his potential usurper, a Mandarin speaking Sinophile, whose swing is looking so large, Howard may end up losing his own seat by virtue of Asian-descent electors in Bennelong.

  25. Perhaps a good read for anyone who doesn’t understand why the Coalition is headed for possible, maybe probable, defeat at this election:

    http://canberra.yourguide.com.au/detail.asp?class=your+say&subclass=general&story_id=1049462&category=opinion

    I have to say, this period of political history is far more interesting than anything that’s happened in the past 10 years or so. It really does seem like the walls are closing in on the Libs… it’ll be interesting to see whether they pull together or fall apart.

    I’m still tipping a late November election at earliest. I highly doubt it’s due to be called anytime soon…

  26. Janet Albrechtsen’s piece is designed to ensure that John Howard steps down. She has helped to cripple him. He really will find it difficult to stay on as leader now. If he does stay now and loses disastrously, as one would expect, he will have to wear all the odium. His eleven “glorious years” will all have been wasted simply because his ego is so great that he couldn’t step down in the interests of the party.
    The Liberal party is bigger than one man.
    He must step down now.
    You can be sure now that Janet Albrechtsen has spoken so eloquently, though we might not agree with her assessment of John Howard’s record, others will have the courage to follow.
    Even Jellyback Peter might now find sufficient courage to step forward.
    If she thinks it will be simply a matter of handing over to Peter, she is very wrong.
    Peter Costello is not the only contender.
    There will have to be a ballot.
    Malcolm Turnbull may not quite have the numbers at this point, but he will have a damn good try.
    If he is the only other person to put their hat in the ring, he will come a good second.
    I would bet it would go 60-40 to Peter Costello. If it were any closer and Peter Costello won it would be a disaster for the Coalition. It would seem to be a divided party.
    If however Malcolm Turnbull by chance won it would seen to be a new beginning.
    The media would be far more interested in what sort of PM Malcolm Turnbull would be.
    He would get a far greater bounce and more media attention than Peter Costello.
    I believe Peter Costello would still lose but by a smaller margin than John Howard.
    If Malcolm Turnbull were elected, he would need to push the election forward by a couple of weeks, notwithstanding the possible rate increase, to get enough traction.
    He would go very close and may even pull off an amazing surprise win.
    I doubt this will happen though.
    I can’t see the likes of Alexander Downer and co having the vision to elect Malcolm Turnbull. Their loyalty to Peter Costello will overcome their common sense.
    Nevertheless expect Malcolm Turnbull to take over in about a year as opposition leader, assuming he can hold his seat!
    Looks like Bennelong is a Labor win.

  27. http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/russia-no-rogue-state/2007/09/07/1188783452317.html

    [‘”The deal will be signed,” he told ABC radio today.

    Russia is a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and is one of the five nuclear powers recognised by that agreement.

    Mr Downer said the treaty provides safeguards that prevent Russia from using uranium for military use or selling it on to third parties.

    “The Russian nuclear power industry is completely under international atomic energy agency safeguards in the way that America’s is or France’s or whoever else we may sell uranium to.”

    Mr Downer said if any country, including Russia, were to breach the treaty, the sense of international outrage would be “simply enormous”.’]

    So why are we selling to India, who is not part of the treaty?
    The hypocrisy is astounding.

  28. Call the election please,
    I’m with you – still tipping late Nov or even 1 December.
    In the unlikely event of a leadership change, sadly i think we’ll be wating until January.

  29. There is no way in all the world in space that Howard will resign – as if he would be influenced by an idiot like Albrechtson. Her job was to attack the lefties in the ABC, not give political advice. “All the attributes of a dog except loyalty,” as someone said of someone else.

    I still think the election will be earlier rather than later. Howard has nothing to gain by waiting. Late October or 3 November at the latest is my bet.

  30. CTEP #425: The article doesn’t go in to much about the probable demise of the Liberal party itself, I do like the quote:

    “The late Bob Menzies was adamant that the Liberal Party he helped form in 1944 would not be a sectional party in the way that its predecessor, the United Australia Party, had been. To Menzies, business was important, but it was just another voice clamouring for attention.”

    Malcom Fraser in recent years has hit out at the Liberal Party for losing it’s social conscience and is not the party Menzies formed. I wonder if the rusted on Liberals have realised this yet?

    So, lets take bets of when ‘New Liberal’ (or maybe ‘Liberal Zero’) starts to raise its head.

  32. Pity that APEC is on, Rudd could’ve had fun with this. But it will get drowned out by everything else.

    The ammunition just continues to roll in to the ALP’s depot.

    How abouth this from yesterday’s Age?

    http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/1100-workplace-agreements-fail-fairness-audit/2007/09/05/1188783321033.html

    Backlog: 127000 AWAs
    New AWAs: 30000 per month.
    Current rate of checking: 12700 since beginning…

    Even if you thought the-policy-formerly-know-as-Workchoices was reasonable and even if you thought that the detection of 15% of eligible AWAs were failing the test showed that the system was working, how could you possibly argue that this policy was being administered properly?

  33. Martin B #432 – Hockey is saying the fairness test is working, but if I recall correctly that government said we didn’t need a fairness test. About 10% of contracts have failed the test. What about those employees in the backlog who are actually being disadvantaged, are they to go 6-7 months on less pay? NoWorkChoices at its best.

  34. Hockey says it’s not the Government’s problem that there may be huge amounts of back-pay required to be paid by non-compliant businesses because it was their fault for not complying.

    I’d have to disagree on many points:

    1) There was no fairness test written for them to comply with, they just had to guess what it would be;
    2) The fairness test should’ve been included in the first case, but for it’s non-appearance these back-pay claims could not be made; and
    3) It’s their job to make sure that the test is administered efficiently and quickly to ensure the least disruptance to business. If this means extra expense then it should be provided.

    Yet more blame-shifting though…

  35. Hockey is saying the fairness test is working

    He certainly is, and I’m sure that there is someone out there who believes him.

    About 10% of contracts have failed the test.

    About 10% of all AWAs that have been checked have failed.
    But nearly 40% of those are exempt from the fairness test because they apply to people over $75k.
    Of AWAs elegible for the fairness test, around 15% have failed.

  36. Albrechtsen, an Ann Coulter wannabe and hatemonger (she is a Turnbullite curiously enough). Howard’s problem is that since 2004 it seems the Liberals have been listening to the echo chamber of her, Bolt, Pearson etc. and imagined they actually represent voters. They have agreed with the cultural left’s depiction of Howard as a master culture warrior.

  37. CTEP: Don’t forget businesses had to meet the requirements for the fairness test before it was even drafted and even longer for it to pass parliament.

    The way this government has been working is a follows:

    a) Make a statement and throw any $ value at it before even getting treasury to look at it.
    b) Say the law has come in to effect without even drafting the law.
    c) Go down to the pub and draft the law on the back of a beer coaster.
    d) Rush the law through parliament
    e) Blast Labor for not supporting it.

  38. Geoff is the Janet tactic then to try and pollute Costello with the loss (or lack of courage to challenge) to make Malcolm’s rise inevitable?

    The Blair / Brown analogy is interesting, but the context is different, even if you accept Costello has established key differences with Howard on key policies (and I don’t think Costello has established any difference bar he would quite like to rule, but wouldn’t we all) Blair has given Brown a fair chance, a fair time to grow into the position; Costello wont have this. He would be under pressure to call the election immediately with Howard’s resignation seen as effectively a concession of defeat. If Costello was not running as New Howard, (ie exactly the same but meet Mr Downer our New Treasurer) Costello would have to remake policy on the run (and look a bit desperate and risky in doing so – undoing the months of ‘risky’ narrative the coalition has laid down).

    We all know Blair probably would have lost a General Election, but he was no-where near to one, Howard has been fighting the election all year long.

    I think today was Janet’s concession speech and about posturing for opposition. Perhaps she wants a job in the new opposition leaders office as her political position on the ABC become untenable (as it surely must).

  39. from a fairly reliable source-me

    was contacted re manning a booth in the next month or two oh and would i like to help hand out leaflets and man local shopping centre

    the blitz is about to start

    geez i wish the libs would update their member list

    after the election that is 🙂

  40. Janet A – what a d… d… d… d**khead. Can’t even get the cricket analogy right. “It’s time to hang up the pads.”

    Obviously she has never been in a cricketers’ change room.

  41. Ah questions, questions, questions! What a blessing they are for Kevin Rudd. Every time a journalist or columnist raises a question about John Howard ‘s hold on the Liberal leadership – or speculates about the chances of Downer, Costello, Abbott or Bishop – they make Kevin Rudd look like the stable and trustworthy alternative.

    This election is boiling down to an elementary choice: who is going to be the leader?

    The other issues – the issues of policy, priority, value, identity, security, social status, economic welfare… the list goes on – are refracted through the prism of leadership. These things are important in themselves, of course. But their real importance is how they differentiate the leaders.

    Think of the differentiation that is occurring…

    new & fresh…. stale
    young & energetic… old, faltering
    approachable & likeable….isolated, irritable
    fair & flexible… one-sided, unfair
    logical, reasoned… impulsive, high-handed
    long-term & pragmatic view… unorthodox, gimmicky
    principled & reasoned… cynical, erratic

    The list can be expanded. I’m sure it will be. After APEC, look for this one:

    Kevin Rudd… Defender of Australia, the ally-on-his-own-two-feet… the Patriot
    John Howard… Acting from Deference to America… the Sidekick

    What a whalloping awaits the Liberals electoral college.

  43. Apropos Blacklight’s comment 442: Richard Glover on ABC Local Sydney had a seppo psychologist on the other day talking about Bushisms. Apparently he consistently mangles his scripts when he is being insincere.

  44. Albert Ross said

    Apropos Blacklight’s comment 442: Richard Glover on ABC Local Sydney had a seppo psychologist on the other day talking about Bushisms. Apparently he consistently mangles his scripts when he is being insincere.

    Well to be fair English is a second language to dubya.

  46. I have said many times that I don’t think Howard will resign but after listening to Downer on ABC radio this morning I’m not so sure anymore. While Downer denied Howard would resign he didn’t sound very convincing. It was more of “I don’t think that will happen” instead of ” that will definitely not happen”. Maybe the Party is seriously thinking about it?

  47. I still don’t think it will happen. The best thing the government has is “experience” (which is why Glen talks about it constantly) if Howard resigns then whoever they pick would by definition be a novice P.M.

    Howard should announce the exact day he is going to resign. Say Australia Day 2009. At the moment people don’t know what they are buying when they think of voting Liberal.

  48. Yes and even worse than a novice PM would be the novice Treasurer, unless Turnbull took the position. Can you imagine selling Hockey or Downer as treasurer and still maintaining the economic credibility line?

  50. And yet… and yet… the Blair/Brown example is compelling. Such a big jump in the polls, and it was instantaneous. A drowning government will be looking at that… it’s so tempting, worth a try etc etc. But in the end it will be Howard’s call. No brutal stabbing in the back by all and sundry, no ‘et tu Alexander’.

    Howard’s call. What sort of bloke is he?

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