PRIME Minister John Howard is under pressure to call the federal election quickly, after the release of boom economic growth figures that threaten to push interest rates higher by November. Despite another horrendous opinion poll this week showing a potential election wipe-out, Mr Howard yesterday appeared to hint he would go to the polls sooner rather than later. Political pressure on him to do so has been intensified by the latest GDP figures, which show the Australian economy has been growing at its fastest annual pace for three years … With an increased prospect of an interest rate rise in November, many in the Government – which has staked its re-election hopes on its ability to sell its economic credentials – will be wanting the election before the inflation figures come out on October 24, or at least before the Reserve Bank board meeting to be held in early November. That would mean a polling day of October 20 or 27. An October 20 poll would have to be called in about 10 days.
THE Senate Finance and Public Administration Committee was in Cairns yesterday conducting its inquiry into the Commonwealth Electoral Amendment (Democratic Plebiscites) Bill 2007. This dry piece of parliamentary advice masks an intensely political exercise and explains why John Howard will not call an election the moment his APEC fiesta shuts down next Sunday. The legislation is the stunt law that Howard pulled out of his box of tricks to drive a wedge between Labor leader Kevin Rudd and his fraternal Queensland Premier Peter Beattie … The committee reports on Friday and the Senate will debate the law next Tuesday, when it’s expected to be passed, in time for plebiscites on Beattie’s amalgamations likely on October 20.
THERE was speculation last night that Prime Minister John Howard could delay calling the federal election until November or even as late as early December. Yesterday, Mr Howard gave his strongest hint yet that the election date would not be held in October after declaring that the federal takeover of the Devonport Mersey Hospital would not occur until November 1. Mr Howard said the Tasmanian Labor Government had agreed to the terms of the handover of the hospital in the state’s north and that the documents would be signed between the two governments on that date. Senior Liberal insiders said it would be wrong to assume too much from the announcement, but said a later election was now a genuine possibility. “Nobody knows the date except the Prime Minister, but you would have to think a later election is now a good chance,” a senior government figure said.
A Canberra insider told me today with absolute certainty that the election would be announced on 13 September. I was told that Howard does not believe he can cut through the political disengagement that has grown up with the last 8 months of pseudo-campaigning. Howard needs a circuit-breaker. In whispered tones, it was also suggested that Howard would rather go to the polls now than face a leadership challenge from Costello, Abbott or Downer – apparently an almost certainty if the Coalition’s poor showing in the opinion polls continues for much longer. According to my source, there would be a longish seven week campaign designed to test Kevin Rudd in the reality of campaign politics (and hopefully expose some Rudd flaws and gaffes). The election would be on 3 November 2007. Living in Canberra, I often hear these (so called) insider rumours. Rarely do they prove true.
Crikey:
Tips and rumours: The election date will be Nov 3. This is based upon the bookings made with Australia Post for mass mailots by the coalition – including in Bennelong. The Coalition recently cancelled their November mailouts and have maintained October ones.
The audio-visual contrasts between Howard and Rudd gained some striking new dimensions in Sydney today.
It is hard to conceive of a better opportunity for Rudd – man-of-surprises, man-of-the-future – than the lunch with President Hu. The Chinese place a lot of importance on public shows of hospitality and friendship. By showing rightly tuned attention and respect to the the President, Rudd will have won the admiration of the whole Chinese delegation and by extension the people of China. In the process, he has shown the domestic market that he can more than just cut it with the heavyweights.
And as if that was not enough, President Bush is no longer a fearsome figure, he is now just a nice guy you can have a friendly private chat with, someone to whom you can offer a history lesson no less.
What a star.
I like Mr. Rudd and yes, Kimbo was kinda useless but… I like the Bomber and it made me feel kinda sad watching him on Lateline tonight. He’s got a good heart – too good.
I want the polls to keep showing 55/45 but really be 59/41 – so as to not scare away possible Labor voters. I want to see an annihilation. Who do I pay?
APEC really isn’t going the way the government thought it would. They need a really violent protest to erupt to give them a bit of wind in their sails. The rest of APEC won’t be much better. Putin arrives tomorrow and with his sale of one billion dollars worth of arms to Indonesia there’s not going to be a lot of happy news stories for Howard. It’s mainly down hill from here.
Poor old Bomber…id have tolerated his leadership of the country had he won in 1998 or 2001 at least he has some principles and some guts (no pun intended) unlike his successor…also the Bomber is an intelligent bloke probably more so than Rudd…it just goes to show you being a leader for too long can make you stale like Bomber maybe Howard is suffering Beazley’s fate…
Thanks Possum. I’m going to bed to dream about all that. Tomorrow we should all chat about where to put some money on interesting seats. I’m not a gambling man, but the chance to turn obsession into profit seems too great this time around…
Agree with you Kina. Haven’t forgotten that swinging gentleman on Insight who will vote for the Libs if there is a chance of a Ruddslide. Plus I’m superstitious. I’ve only allowed myself to fantasise of a Labor win once and only for 10 minutes. It was mind-blowing!
Yeah, gotta love him. But its like watching a tragedy, you want him to do well, and so did a majority of Australians which showed consistently in polls for almost a year, just ahead, no where near enough though. Cant discount his contribution to recovering Labor votes in his respectable tenure as opposition leader (mk11), he would(will?) make an excellent US ambassador.
Good call Possum. What appears to have happened over the last few weeks/months is that the votes have firmed up and all issues are being assessed from this perspective. That is, the issues aren’t the drivers of voting intention – opinions on issues are mostly detremined by the position voters have taken on Howards Government. The Libs can throw as much money as they want into advertising but it’s not going to make any difference.
[ make an excellent US ambassador. ]
Or Ambassador to the UN. He’d like New York.
Beazley would have made a good PM. He never got over the “lack of ticker” label Howard hung on him.
Costello’s problem? He isn’t popular, either in the Liberal Party, or the general community. A leadership change might save a few seats in Victoria, but that’d be about it. Rudd would have him for dinner.
The Coalition is stuck with the rodent!
Glen,
You’re late. What happened. Did you lose your keys the Liberal Party HQ?
Lindsay voter – I’ve only allowed myself to fantasise of a Labor win once and only for 10 minutes. It was mind-blowing!
I relate to your comment! All the losses to Howard have been so devastating I cannot allow myself to believe it and won’t till the numbers are in. But the anticipation is heaven! I pray!
I
John Rocket
Yeah, Kim looked slimmer and a lot more relaxed but had a sadness about him, I felt. You can’t help thinking that he felt like he had so many hard yards in opposition that it was a tragedy that he didn’t get that tilt at the top job.
He displayed his formidable knowledge of military affairs and of foreign policy which is relevant to our current state of diplomatic ties. Perhaps he was always more suited to being a great minister of a portfolio like this?
Kevin Rudd has had his success not through luck but great timing, being able to present a coherent message and binning the “oppose everything” approach that characterised Beazley.
Beazley, by all who knew him personally around Canberra, was and is a decent man and had great dignity tonight discussing his new leader, which must be a humiliating pill. Indeed, I recall even JWH springing to his defence when the Latham diaries spewed vitriol about Kim. John Howard defended Beazley’s personal integrity and character despite polar opposite ideologies. I thought that one act was testament to both men.
I don’t see the same respect by JWH about Rudd, but that possibly suggests more about the nature of the realistic threat rather than a reflection of character..
Yep Beazley woffling on in America and George with his impressive dialogue would make such a lovely pair.
Hi Lindsay voter,
I have a close friend, Chinese decent, 5th generation Australian, and he doens’t speak a word of either Mandarin or Cantonese.
I know this is a dangerous fault, but I sometimes think that becuase I know one, I understand the many. My guess is that there are more chinese decent australian than recent imigrnats.
I also hate attributing charcacteristics to ethnic groups, because it steers close to the cliff of racisim, but if there are two traits I attribute to chinese communities it would be
1) incredibly strong family ties,
2) acute business acumen.
Would kevin rein’s Mandarin outbust today override those two traits and make everyone think KR should be next PM?
Honestly, on the 7:30 report tonight, I thought he was wearing lipp gloss
[Howard has gotten away with murder over this.Every major policy announcement since June has followed the script set out in this document, from the 10 bill water plan, to the NT intervention.Every single piece of taxpayer funded policy announcement has been an exercise in pure, unadulterated electoral politics of the most shameless kind that has delivered exactly zero result electoral result.]
I am just so amazingly happy that the publict aren’t buying his bribes. He seemed to get away with it in 2001 and 2004, but this year it is different. My faith in the public has returned!
Winston – its worse than that, the advertising is probably (nay must be) hurting the govenment. It’s reinforcing the perceived differentiation between the parties positions in the minds of electors, and nearly every position is already favourably in Rudds court.Since June, the big vote drivers that the C/T research outlined in June would have nearly all moved further into the ALP top left quadrant.
I dont know whether to cry at the abysmal waste of my hard earned, or laugh at the fools who deserve everything they get.
[Or Ambassador to the UN. He’d like New York.]
If Rudd wins that’s where he will end up.
Apparently he is currently writing a book on the Iraq invasion.
All Howard has got left is going even more negative/personal smear campaign, and massive electoral bribery – expect to see lots of it in the coming weeks.
[ Apparently he is currently writing a book on the Iraq invasion. ]
He is an expert on Australian military history so I wouldn’t be surprised if he was writing a book. I hope his writing style is better than his speaking style.
362#
Paul k quite frankly I have better things to do atm than talk about how much Rudd is going to win by in the federal election…so forgive me if i dont post as frequently as you’d prefer…
Do i think i need to contribute to this blog every hour on the hour? No of course not
Do i want to contribute? Yes of course i do…
Will my contributions get branded as Liberal Party HQ lies over and over again? The answer is yes.
How will the Australia people like hearing Rudd answer his own questions over and over and over and over and over again if he’s elected Prime Minister? Not very much.
You get the feeling Beazley thinks he was robbed and that now that Labor are favourites to win his party stopped him from being ale to finally ‘nail’ Howard after being beaten 2 times…I think if Labor were to win the election id have been happier with Kim Beazley than Kevin Rudd…why you might as its simple…experience!
The media never took a liking to Beazley he was the pun of jokes and they made a big deal out of his inadvertent media slip ups….they didnt take a shine to him whereas they have with Rudd…Rudd is the darling of the media at least those who arent called up by Rudd and threated into not printing stories about him but hey Rudd has been gifted a top notch image by the media and its paying dividends.
Kim was in good form on lateline. But it was clear (particularily from today) that Kevin is much better performer. Rudd will outperform Howard in the campain. Let’s say its currently 56/54 – its going to stay there and maybe get worse.
And as possum’s outstanding analysis has pointed out – this time the swings will occour where they will do the most damage.
The events of today must have sent a shiver down where Costello’s spine used to be – he is going to gain control of a party either just before of just after the train wreck.
Certainly advertisng over Workchoices has backfired – maybe see newspapers tomorrow on this. But what I am saying is that it is not that voters have dramatically changed their opinions about which party is best to handle individual issues – this would be unrealistic. What they have decided is that the Howard Governments time is up – so their views on individual issues fall into line with this. That’s what makes Howard’s position irretrievable.
Not a bad tactician, just musing over the Dibbs/Beazley report in the 80’s which signaled a move towards self reliance. A belated response to the Nixon “your on your own” Doctrine. The US alliance is only effective in that an enemy cannot be certain that our great and powerful friend wont come to our aid. The US, however, has made it clear that this is by no means a certainty. Even Canada has a self reliance white paper.
Howard is hanging on to the coat tails of a declining superpower, the liberal party cannot depart from its increasingly untenable credit alliance system, Aussie blood for future (never promised) favours. It worked so well in Singapore!
I look forward to the Bomber’s assessment of the Iraqi debacle, especially in the losing of the peace.
Rudd had too much makeup on – he has fair hair and the made his face even fairer. They need to give him some color.
Possum, I have also just finished reading the Crosby-Textor stuff and also was amazed at how it suggests there is no room for Howard to move. I agree with your landslide notion and mentioned over at your place earlier tonight some small evidence that the Govt is preparing for this.
I think Kim’s appearance on Lateline tonight is his effective public swansong (at least as a Labor MP). He seemed to waffle more than usual (I know that’s a big statement), particularly when he was using his defence analogies to describe the Liberals’ current polling position. I would expect him to be the next ambassador to the US, if Rudd wins the election.
I have to say that I’m slightly concerned (as an ALP supporter) about the possibility of Howard stepping down after APEC. Even Beazley on Lateline admitted that his successor will get some form of bounce, regardless of who they are, and they may be able to turn that bounce into some form of electoral momentum.
It’s the exact sort of thing that can change the election climate instantaneously and therefore makes me prefer the known (Howard staying til the end) than the unknown (Howard resigning).
Of course, Howard staying has the additional benefit of him losing his seat at the election (although he’s still probably favourite there)
Possum, you say Howard is getting away with murder but the polls say otherwise. The people have wised up to his political games and are preparing to launch him in to the history books. While there is only one poll that counts, it would appear that by simply pointing out to the public that Howard was ‘clever’, Rudd has opened their eyes to the real Johnny… a political manipulator, and nothing else.
Has anyone seen the latest Workplace Ads from the Howard Government?
What deceptive lying scum.
They imply that AWA’s simply mean more money.
Does anyone actually fall for this rubbish and waste of taxpayers money?
Possum
Looks like from your analysis that people are getting relaxed and comfortable about a big win, it is a good thing, when you are going to have a clean out you need to have a proper clean out.
Should happen more, gives power back to the people and reminds the pollies that they are there to manage,plan and act for us not for themselves.
Howard wont quit. As Hyacinth was once heard to say about the keys to the Squat “from my cold, dead hands”
Beazley on Lateline demonstrated why he would make a better academic than opposition leader. He pointed out that diplomacy is all about nuance, about how you say something, not just what you say. This is great for someone interested in international relations and defence, but it doesn’t make one the best at dealing with domestic policy. I think this is because often domestic policy involves pretending differences are greater than they really are.
Possum (350)…
Yes, the past is catching up with John Howard. It is strange to behold, really, like the scuttling of an obsolete battleship: slow at first as the hull fills, and then, lurching and pitching irretrievably, twisting aft first out of view, the end confirmed by a soaring plume of foam. Cheers will ring out, finally.
The thing is, I keep waiting for the guns to roar, loosen an almighty salvo. But there’s nothing. There’s nothing left in the arsenal. It’s been looted or left to rot. There’s just nothing doing.
Rudd is so shiny bright, at times brilliantly so, all trim and smart and with-it. No wonder that Alexander gets more and more peevish. But no problem: he can go down with the ship too, he’s earned the right.
I’m waiting for Dennis Shanahan to turn against JWH. Even Greg Sheridan has also started to move away with his piece today chastising Howard and Bush.
At the last election I helped out in Lindsay, Parramatta and Bennelong on polling day and was pleased that they was a (slight) swing against the Libs bucking the national trend in all 3 seats from memory.
We should all still go out there and do our bit especially in the marginals.
That’s funny Gus – not as good as the “rogue bookie”, but pretty funny for this time of night.
CNN reporting on Bush-Hu talks. The Chaser stunt got a mention at the end.
http://edition.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/09/06/australia.bush/index.html
[We should all still go out there and do our bit especially in the marginals.]
Today I sent an email volunteering for Sturt, which is the seat I live in. I think seeing Christopher Pyne lose would be almost as good as seeing Howard lose.
Poss
I read the Crosby, stills and Textor report, looks like they said a 11% swing in WA?
Possum
bomber made mention that the vibe was like 1983
does your excellent analysis look at overlay (eg 1983v2004)
also some speculation re the c/t stuff
the last update showed that in SOME marginals the picture is actually not too bad
but in the blue ribbons it is truly game on
funnily enough labor seems to have the same picture
so therefore expect rudd in the “safe seats” more and more
my gut feeling is that it is now about only 106 seats as 5 or 6 marginals will stay with the libs
2 nsw
1 qld
1 sa
1 vic
Once again, an exchange about Iraq that started half-relevant went rapidly off course. I have just deleted a big chain of comments, not all of which deserved it individually (though a good many of them did).
Arbie, the swing to the ALP in WA since the last election according to C/T was 4.7%, but the swing since Beazley (which I assume is the Rudd period) has been 11.2%.That means that after the 04 election there was a swing to the government, but since Rudd there has been a swing away from the government of 11.2%, making an overall swing since the last election of 4.7%.
The swing to the government in WA between the 04 election and Rudd seems a little out of what with the Newspoll quarterly’s though.
Poss
Thanks, I was reading the since 2004 bit as being from 2004 to Beasley and then the since Beasley bit as being from 2006.
IE, swing from 2004 to 2006 4%, swing since 2006 7% to give total of 11%.
Might give Crosby a call tomorrow and ask if they can clarify.
Arbie – I wonder how that’ll go?
“Yeah, I’ve got a question about that confidential document of yours that was leaked to world – can you tell me about the definition of of ‘since 2004’ and ‘since beazley’…. that’d be great thanks!”
🙂
This possum has to climb a tree – night all
More Election Spam on TV, via Coonan and the ACMA.
[The Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA) has revised the television industry code of practice to allow an extra minute of political advertising to be broadcast each hour from 6pm to midnight during election campaigns]
http://www.theage.com.au/news/National/TV-screens-set-for-more-political-ads/2007/09/06/1188783418688.html
#378 Swing Lowe. Kim’s appearance on Lateline
I thought Kim admirable and articulate as is his forte. His finest, regrettably, have been concession speeches.
Kim did nothing but support Kevin Rudd well and reasonably. No hint of bitterness. No ugly rap. Decent, as usual. Unlike, well…
If a post is to come, let it be one that befits his breadth of experience, delicacy, knowledge, compassion. It would serve this country well.
[ Election Spam on TV ]
Right now running a TV station must be like having a license to print money. The station owners are going to miss Howard.
[Kim did nothing but support Kevin Rudd well and reasonably. No hint of bitterness. No ugly rap. Decent, as usual. Unlike, well… ]
Plus he did so under great personal stress following the news of the death of his Brother (Beazley).
You can imagine what a double whammy that was, losing both the leadership and a family member within minutes of each other .
Unfortunately that was always what Kim did best – losing gracefully. One such moment was smiling during his concession speech in 2001 – it just proved that he didn’t really want it…