Newspoll: 55-45

Commenters at the business end of the country inform me, via Lateline, that tomorrow’s Newspoll will be as you see in the headline (after a 56-44 result a fortnight ago). It is against my religion to read anything into one poll in isolation. Nonetheless, I am tempted to interpret this as the interest rate hike being cancelled out by what Matt Price describes as the government’s “potentially quite good bad news”, namely last week’s stock market dive.

UPDATE: Kevin Rudd’s lead on preferred prime minister has widened from 44-39 to 46-39.

UPDATE 2: The Australian reports Labor’s primary vote is down from 48 per cent to 46 per cent (equal lowest since February), with the Coalition steady on 39 per cent.

UPDATE 3: Graphic here, Shanahan here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

619 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45”

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  1. Albert Ross,

    I agree that they’d take money from anywhere but I also think they’ve given the Opposition a potential issue to run with. Every time Liberals yell out “Brain Burke” then Labor will be able to yell back “Exclusive Brethren”.

  2. If I were Rudd Id be spending my ‘air time’ going after Howard’s policy of ‘Aspirational Nationalism and selling his alternative approach to infrastructure funding reform instead of wasting that ‘air time’ nit picking about whose donating what to who.

    There is a hell of a lot more of a ‘bell whistle’ message to the Howard battlers in convincing them that he is a better gamble on economic management and bringing a more balanced share of economic growth to the hip pocket economy of workers and restoring some workers rights than The Bretheren thing.

    Its a wasted opportunity: let someone else kick up a stink about them, fair enough. But Rudd should be talking about more important things at EVERY opportunity to diffuse Howard’s allegations that he his all froth and bubble.

  4. Glen
    You have at times been critical of union heavy-weights like Kevin Reynolds. Lets be clear that Kevin and his boys, for all that do appear to be qute shonky (and I can list a few examples of questionable behaviour) have generally done well for the members of their union. Now, at the end of the day, if you’re a member of a union working on building sites that are at times quite dangerous, and this guy gets you good rates of pay, conditions etc don’t you think as a member you’d appreciate that? When people bag out Reynolds etc they tend to forget that they’ve also delivered (not always I must say, but certainly in the past) for the members. This is not unlike a company delivering for the shareholders. And lets be clear – if as a large construction company you engage in or condone (whether pressured or not) illegal, or just plain questionable, payments or practices you are just as guilty as any union boss who may have engaged in such practices.

    Personally I’m a little tired of hearing the same old line of rhetoric re unions.

  5. Yeah Timbo. Maybe censorship and quashing of democratic values and debate iare part of this ere newfangled ‘Ass-nationalism’.

    There’s never been so many reasons for democrats to dispose of the proto-authoritarian Tories posing as our government

  6. A large part of the irony of this is tories riding a wave of anti-political correctness in 1996 against the ALP who were ‘robbing us of our freedom of speech’. The Alp never actually legislated to have it removed, which at least in part is what Costello has just done.

  7. I put a few dollars in as well. Does Glen have to donate for all of his personas or will one donation under his real name suffice? Glen, I assume that you have no problem in using your real name do you……

    Cheers,
    Tom.

  13. *grumbles to herself having missed a whole Iraq debate while attending some dull meeting*

    To summarise my last long post. Howard is a shocking economic manager and while they would never use that expression, the polling over more than 12 months is best explained by the fact that ordinary punters know it in their pockets, and are sick of an out of touch PM & treasurer telling them it is the best they have ever had it as they read their daughters workchoices AWA where their daughters have to work 18 hours a day and pay for the privledge of attending work (to misquote monty python).

    [just cutting and pasting that last para into my application to work for head office – if the right wing posters get their talking points from head office I figure head office must pay someone to put them together. Head office boys see above I’m your girl]

    I just wanted to point out what a fantastic job the States are doing.

    Of course my home patch, the mother state Western Australia, and as Lang Hancock put it when advocating succession in 1973 the State that carries the economy of our country on the back or our minerals, is doing particularly well [but to be fair has had massive revenue growth off the back of our real estate catching up to the rest of Australia] is doing particularly well with massive new infrastructure projects, having now almost caught up will all the backlog of neglect from the Court years.

    Good to see from Chris that Labor in Victoria is cleaning up from the vandalism of the Kennett years.

    Time for the good economic team lead by Rudd to clean up after the neglect of the Howard years, where a 17 billion dollar surplus can’t possibly be spent because the lack of timely investment (ie responsibly over the last 11 years) in education and infrastructure means our economy is constrained and can’t grow.

    [again head office boys you know where to find me I have the 7 figure consultancy agreement all drafted all you need to do is sign and pay the upfront bonus].

    so provokes naughty jas.

  16. I note that Bush has made the statement that “a US pullout from Iraq could spark the kind of upheaval that followed the Vietnam War”

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6958824.stm

    Nice to see even Bush himself is comparing Iraq to Viet Nam. Can’t wait for Howard to defend the comparison.

    Yep, poor Viet Nam, the holiday destination of choice. Some facts about Viet Nam to show how “bad” it is fairing now that they are missing America’s “aid”.

    Vietnam achieved around 8% annual GDP growth from 1990 to 1997 and continued at around 7% from 2000 to 2005, making it the world’s second-fastest growing economy. Simultaneously, foreign investment grew threefold and domestic savings quintupled. Manufacturing, information technology and high-tech industries form a large and fast-growing part of the national economy. Vietnam is a relative new-comer to the oil business, but today it is the third-largest oil producer in Southeast Asia with output of 400,000 barrels per day. Vietnam is one of Asia’s most open economies: two-way trade is around 160% of GDP, more than twice the ratio for China and over four times India’s.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vietnam

  17. Glen

    I take it you would agree that Australia’s contribution is more symbolic than substantial. I say this based on your rationale that withdrawing troops would embolden congressional Democrats in the US to push for total US withdrawal. Correct?

    In other words, we are putting the lives of soldiers at risk for US partisan political reasons. Correct? We are actually putting “blood and treasure” on the line to help the US president make a philosophical point, look tough and score points against Nancy Pelosi? Isn’t that what you are saying? I thought the military was meant to be above politics, especially another country’s.

    Shameful.

  22. Yeh, a 74% approval rating for an Opposition Leader is scarcely believable.

    However, a note of caution comes from the fact that Mark Latham had a 64% approval rating on Sep 15/16 2004 – which eventually fell to 47% by Nov 3/4.

    Still (as a likely Labor voter), it’s still looking good for Kevin07.

  25. However, a note of caution comes from the fact that Mark Latham had a 64% approval rating on Sep 15/16 2004 – which eventually fell to 47% by Nov 3/4.

    Yes, but that was Mr Flaky. Latham’s problem was not his wackiness (this was a retrospective analysis), but his utter lack of substance, which became apparent during the campaign.

    The announcement today is indicative of a rush of policy announcements. That’s why they’re holding back.

  26. Well I think the hospital announcement is good, Rudd can say that Howard has a plan for 1 hospital in 1 marginal seat, whereas he has a plan for every hospital in the country.

  27. Just waiting for the rogue poll call.

    While I understand you can have a systematic bias, can anyone tell me how often you can have rogues? Is it like a toin coss and theoretically the odds of a rogue are always the same, so in effect you could have a series of 27 rogues?

    Just wondering if the voters on election day will be a rogue poll too!!!!

  28. Senior Government staffers are talking privately about a late November election ( 17 or 24). They say they will just win – and Queensland will deliver them the vote. They are wrong. Queensland will vote for their first ever Prime Minister.
    These same staffers also believe it will be a mistake to delay the election until then – given that it won’t be called till mid-October. They reason that after APEC in early September the ALP will start talking about the October election ( as Rudd has already). The Canberra press Gallery will put pressure on Howard every time he appears, as to why he hasn’t called the election. Howard will look as though he is delaying the inevitable and, in the process, look desperate.
    The election is already over. The campaign has been going full tilt since February. The punters have made up their minds. Morgan, Newspoll, Neilsen, Galaxy and the private polling tell a long and consistent story. There is only one issue – and that issue is a 68 year old and trickly Prime Minister.

  29. On polling day you simply subtract the 5% anti Howard bias and then factor in the overwhelming popularity of the govt’s economic policies. This is done after the event to preserve continuity.

  35. I read the other day (on Oz Pol. site I think), that there was probably going to be a delay re: interest rates anger, showing in the polls. The author suggested that it would take one or two polls for the rise to be passed on and start effecting the mortgage belt.

    Good news re: Morgan poll.

  36. With the primary vote at 51% for the ALP this is the highest level in the Morgan phone poll series. No effect of strippergate in these results, trend is back to ALP.

  38. 87% couldn’t give a rats about strippergate. bahaha!

    According to my calcs, that means every ALP supporter, every swinger, and 2 out 3 LNP voters.

    Chalk up another own goal for Team Rodent.

    Plus, it seems Rudd now owns the federal hospital issue. Wow, a coordinated federal approach, instead of lucky dip marginal porking. Who’d have thought it?

    Howard’s a rubbish campaigner. Must have been Sino all along.

  39. BenC,

    I think it’s way too early to call a trend to the ALP this early – this is the first poll after Strippergate and the trend previously was either a flat-line or a small movement towards the Coalition.

    We will need to wait until after the Galaxy poll next week and (probably) the Newspoll the week after to see if there is a true trend developing. I would think it more likely, however, that other issues (eg, Labor’s takeover of hospitals) would be more relevant by then…

  41. ruaawake
    “Under this scenario, Labor should win 123 seats. That is sufficient to form majority government”

    and also sufficient to keep labor in power for at least three terms
    (hopefully by then my Liberal party will have metamorphosed back into its original form and people like petro are the norm not the aberration)

  43. Anybody who takes Morgan polls seriously should see a psychiatrist…they are as biased as they come…Morgan polls are consistently rogue…55-45 is the staple result and yet their figure is 5 points out…

    God don’t you love how unbiased the media is i mean when Howard brings out his health and medical investment fund…the media call it pork barreling and when Rudd brings out his health policy…he is visionary…the media have already decided this election…its just a matter whether it turns out they way they want…

    Rudd’s health policy is a joke and he’s playing catch up once again another Me To effort by Rudd…Essentially, he’s saying the state Labor premiers can’t run the health system and he’s offering to come to the rescue…what a joke a would-be Labor prime minister rescuing Labor premiers from their failure to manage their health systems…

    Why would strippergate come out in a Morgan poll when has Morgan ever had the Coalition ahead…it’ll come out in galaxy and AC though…
    Anybody who thinks its realistic for a party to have more than 50% primary vote has rocks in their heads it just couldnt happen…the Labor stooges need to take a cold shower…if you think the election is won already you’ll be in for a rude shock if you lose!

  45. Better get some money on Downer as next leader – ’cause all the rest will be gone. Tee Hee

    Got to enjoy this while it lasts 🙂

  46. Glen, I think the important thing to take from the Morgan poll is the consistency in the numbers. Even if we agree that the Morgan poll overstates the Labor vote (which there is some evidence to suggest it does), then it is the change in the trend of the morgan polling that is of interest, rather than the absolute numbers themselves. The trend is frankly going nowhere fast. The same could certainly be said for newspoll.

  48. Now this will upset the NSW LIbs.

    [Meanwhile, a senior Liberal who has been suspended from the party has formally defected to the CDP and has not ruled out running at the next federal election.

    Michael Darby was suspended from the Liberals in June over his appearance on the Four Corners program on ABC TV and for criticising the former NSW Liberal leader, Peter Debnam, in a newspaper interview.

    He also lost a pre-selection battle for the state seat of Manly against Michael Baird and later campaigned for the Christian Democratic Party during the recent NSW election.

    Mr Darby, a former federal and New South Wales councillor for the Liberal Party, denies the switch to the new party is sour grapes.

    “What tipped me over the edge was this,” he said.

    “I said to the state executive when they were examining whether they would be suspending me, ‘You are not having any kind of judicial process.

    “‘There is no concept of any judicial process here. This is simply grubby factional politics.'”]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/08/23/2013166.htm?section=justin

  49. Howard has gone Troppo.

    Rudd:”Lets reform the Health system, lets remove duplication and churn those billions of savings back into health delivery.Let’s help the states do it, but if they cant let’s have a referendum to give the power to the commonwealth to do it.Either way, it will be done”.

    Howard:”Lets have local plebiscites on nuclear reactors”.

    WTF!?!

  50. [Morgan polls are consistently rogue…55-45 is the staple result and yet their figure is 5 points out…]

    You can’t use previous polls to predict future polls Glen.

    [God don’t you love how unbiased the media is i mean when Howard brings out his health and medical investment fund…the media call it pork barreling and when Rudd brings out his health policy…he is visionary]

    That’s because Howard’s fund is a joke, only the EARNINGS of the trust fund will be invested, which the Government predicts to be $100 – $200 million per year. They created a $5 billion trust to grab a headline, so that some people think that means ALL the cash gets invested into health, when it is actually only whatever the fund earns.

    Rudd’s plan invests $2 billion, $1 billion of which the government has cut since 2000.

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