Newspoll: 55-45

Commenters at the business end of the country inform me, via Lateline, that tomorrow’s Newspoll will be as you see in the headline (after a 56-44 result a fortnight ago). It is against my religion to read anything into one poll in isolation. Nonetheless, I am tempted to interpret this as the interest rate hike being cancelled out by what Matt Price describes as the government’s “potentially quite good bad news”, namely last week’s stock market dive.

UPDATE: Kevin Rudd’s lead on preferred prime minister has widened from 44-39 to 46-39.

UPDATE 2: The Australian reports Labor’s primary vote is down from 48 per cent to 46 per cent (equal lowest since February), with the Coalition steady on 39 per cent.

UPDATE 3: Graphic here, Shanahan here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

619 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45”

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  1. I’m with Kina. When it comes to opinion polls, it’s always better to be ahead than behind (or, when it comes to Glen, to have your head up your behind). But I’ll believe the Howard govt is finished when I see the Boy from Bennelong up on the podium giving his concession speech. Until then…

  2. Dolly has had another dummy spit. I wonder if Glen’s his speechwriter 🙂

    [LABOR leader Kevin Rudd is a “white bread” politician created by a public relations firm, Foreign Affairs Minister Alexander Downer says.

    In a scathing attack on the opposition leader today, Mr Downer labelled Mr Rudd a poll driven stuntsman with no substance.

    “It’s all stunts, no substance,” Mr Downer said.

    “Mr Rudd is full of stunts and I think as time goes on, people are starting to get to know Mr Rudd – there is more to Mr Rudd than meets the eye, a lot more.”

    Mr Downer said the private Mr Rudd was completely different than the opposition leader’s public persona.

    “Mr Rudd is a complete product of a public relations firm,” Mr Downer said.

    “He is the best example I have seen outside of the United States, and I have seen it in the United States, Mr Rudd is the best example … of a white bread politician created by a public relations firm.

    “What Mr Rudd is like privately, how he conducts his business privately, is at complete variance from the public image that you see day after day – the automatic smile, the poll driven stunt.

    “This is not a person of substance, it’s the creation of a public relations firm.

    “I love the way he comes out and says ‘ah, (Prime Minister) Mr (John) Howard just says that because it’s poll driven’ – he is only poll driven.

    “We all know Mr Howard has a very, very strong belief system.

    “Whether people like Mr Howard or whether they don’t, they know he stands for things – Mr Rudd is just about stunts, polls and public relations.” ],21598,22294835-5005361,00.html

  3. Jasmine, you’d expect 5% (1 in 20) of the polls to be outside the margin of error. To get 27 in a row would have a probability of (0.05)^27, which is miniscule, so very very unlikely. You’d have to suspect a systematic error (bias) if that happened.

  4. Yeah I think I get it, but systematic bias is easy to adjust we see Glen do it almost every poll, you guess it, estimate it, or make it up, subtract it from the published figure and then look at your sampling error thingy to know the vote is between x and y (with that 95% band to avoid rogue).

    The discussions that use rogue have interested me because as Possum notes a large percentage of polls have been rogue lately. And rather than try and work out something from them they seem to be abandoned.

    I was just trying to dig a bit deeper and try to put a sensible line between just stupidly hopeful and sensibly suspicious. I know I’m supposed to be partisan and not care about that sort of thing, but I like to know what is going on, even if I could never admit it out loud.

  5. Problem is, we don’t know what the true voting intention is – except at elections. So who knows which ones are rogue? All we can say is which ones seem out of line from the others.

  6. I think Alex’s suspender just snapped and whacked him in the groin.
    What a silly silly boy. He’ll get six of the best for this. Bend over boy and take it like a man.
    A hysterical outburst like this won’t go down well in white bread land, which by the way is most of the land.
    He’ll just disgust people with that kind of personal attack.
    They really must be desperate.

  7. Dolly Downer has identified a point of differentiation:

    (a) Rudd and the ALP being full of cunning stunts
    (b) Howard and the Liberals are full of stunning……………

  8. It took John Howard a week to get the name correct, econo- tek econo-ono-tech, ecteck, then finally econtech.

    I had to giggle at paliament last week. 🙂

  9. That should have read: ‘The Member for Mayo is talking about “white bread land”. There’s got to be a pun in there somewhere.’

    For some reason, putting brackets on either side of the word Mayo deleted it from the message.

  10. Channel ten news just referred to the Morgan poll results briefly and quite openly attributed the improved ALP result as due to the “politics of smear” campaign. That has to be a sure sign that the media, or part thereof at least, is about to wash their hands of the coalition. I think the thought of being associated with a loser is starting to come into play. Either that or they can’t stand the smell anymore. Is this a sign that it could get worse (if that is possible) for the rodent?


  11. Yes BxTom, it could get worse. Truly, John Howard is not looking like a PM any more. And as for Alex! What a complete dill. They are getting out of control and the media can feel that.

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