Commenters at the business end of the country inform me, via Lateline, that tomorrow’s Newspoll will be as you see in the headline (after a 56-44 result a fortnight ago). It is against my religion to read anything into one poll in isolation. Nonetheless, I am tempted to interpret this as the interest rate hike being cancelled out by what Matt Price describes as the government’s “potentially quite good bad news”, namely last week’s stock market dive.
UPDATE: Kevin Rudd’s lead on preferred prime minister has widened from 44-39 to 46-39.
UPDATE 2: The Australian reports Labor’s primary vote is down from 48 per cent to 46 per cent (equal lowest since February), with the Coalition steady on 39 per cent.
UPDATE 3: Graphic here, Shanahan here.
Not just us Glenn, if we lose the future, the economy, the workforce and any Australian ideals Howard has accidently left in place so far will be in for a rude and scarry shock.
Yeah it is only one poll, but you assume it is at the top of margin of error and subtract the 4.5% from all the numbers, it is still a happy happy day. Go cry in your beer.
And the Mad Monk responds.
[LABOR’S national health reform plan was a case of “fools rushing in”, Health Minister Tony Abbott asaid today.
Mr Abbott said it was better to wait for the results of the Federal Government’s test case in funding one public hospital, rather taking over the nation’s 750 hospitals.
“This whole exercise by Mr Rudd smacks of a case of fools rushing in where angels fear to tread,” Mr Abbott said.
– More to follow]
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22294658-5005361,00.html
I suspect polls that will be even more consistantly damaging for the coalition.
They truly are looking down the barrell of the biggest landslide in Australias history, inline with the wipe-out of the conservatives in Canada a few years ago.
Even if the ALP stuffs the economy up if they win they’ll have the investment funds that will continue to provide money to health and education even if Labor runs out of money if they manage to win Government…
If you didnt get the point of Rudds policy is that he’s bailing out failed Labor States for their inability to adequately provide health services…Rudd’s once again following Howard’s lead…
Simon if you didnt already know the States get billions in funds from the GST and they continue to reap millions from stamp duties and other taxes they cant provide health services and it shows Labor cannot be trusted…
You guys must love watching the media how they pander to Rudd and give him positive spin every single day whereas Howard gets f all from the media…if we lose the election…the media will have played a considerable role in his downfall…if they did their job and scrutinised Krudd as much as they do for Howard…he’d have had to resign already…
What a moron, why is the government’s test case in some small hospital in Tasmania!? Wouldn’t it make more sense to do a test case on a major metropolitan hospital in a big city?
Sounds like the mad monk is trying to turn a one off vote buying decision into a policy.
Squeal as much as you need to glen… every piece of evidence points to a massive election landslide against the coalition.
Pi
i said that in february and felt very alone 🙁
but now everyones saying it so im very happy 🙂
ps and i didnt even vote labor (will now of course and so will family)
(gee its funny how the state libs are ready to gorge on each other-nurse it looks like carnage in there !!)
pps glen is there anyone else left at the bunker??
We will see on Monday, won’t we?
And if you are wrong…what will you say then?
Glen… the problem that you’ve got, is that you only have ‘scare’ as a tactic. You used the word ‘if’ eight times in your latest attempt to distort the reality of the coalitions position in relation to what most Australians want.
The coalition, IF they continue on the way they are going, are going to be wiped out so comprehensively, that they won’t be in power, in any legislative house, for decades. The ‘Aspriational Nationalism’ ‘policy’ (and i use that term very losely) hasn’t even panned out in the polls yet, and it is going to be recieved like a gun-shot to the forehead.
Should be concern in the Coalition that 61 p/c of Lib-Nat supporters believe Rudd is doing a good job. By contrast, just 21 p/c of ALP supporters believe Howard is doing a good job.
[Even if the ALP stuffs the economy up if they win they’ll have the investment funds that will continue to provide money to health and education even if Labor runs out of money if they manage to win Government…]
It costs billions to run things, the government is proposing spending a few hundred million a year, depending on how much these share market investments make. If the share market tanks due to a world–wide recession, then they probalby won’t make a cent.
This is a dumb policy designed to fool stupid people into thinking they are investing billions when they aren’t.
You just run the Howard line – blame the states, but you can’t have it both ways. The S.A. government has proposed to build a brand new hospital at a cost of $2.2 billion. On the one hand Howard says this is what causes interest rates, but on the other says state governments don’t do enough for health. Howard needs to think of one lie and stick to it, varying his lies is not working.
Also, look at the Aboriginal intervention policy, the current government cut $600 million worth of indigenous programmes in its first two budgets. All they did last week is make a promise to put that money back in. It’s just all fuzzy math, no wonder they are so far behind in the polls.
glen says
“if they did their job and scrutinised Krudd as much as they do for Howard…he’d have had to resign already…”
well go on “glen howard” tell daddy to resign then and save us from more of your inanity
For a true account of the way the states have been starved of funds despite the GST, see “Sometimes, less is, well … just less” by Rory Robertson (The Age, August 23, 2007)
http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/sometimes-less-is-well-8230-just-less/2007/08/22/1187462353280.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
556# gusface
Nein bin ich nicht das einzige, das wir noch gewinnen können und bis zu im dich betrafen, gebumst erhalten daß kann, weil wir von hinten gekommen sind, in 3 aus 4 Wahlen heraus zu gewinnen und wir es wiederholen können…
‘Aspriational Nationalism’ Pi what did Rudd just announce today an exact copy of Howard’s new interventionism…can this man ever think up his own policies or does he intend to steal all the Coalition’s????
Rudd’s health policy is entirely consistent with his cooperative federalism approach, which is what started Howard’s petulant state raids in the first place.
Howard and Costello are working off different scripts today.
“Howard mulls tax breaks for homebuyers”
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,22293861-31037,00.html
“Costello rules out tax breaks for first home buyers”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/08/23/2013086.htm?section=justin
[‘Aspriational Nationalism’ Pi what did Rudd just announce today an exact copy of Howard’s new interventionism…can this man ever think up his own policies or does he intend to steal all the Coalition’s????]
Garbage. He said he would give them $2 billion to improve their performance, if not, then we vote at a referendum to hand hospital funding to the feds. That’s a policy, instead of the opportunistic scatter-gun approach that Howard has adopted. Do anything, say anything, is his only policy now.
Chris at 562
Rory Roberston rocks as an economist.He’s a sharp witted bugger too.
“The economy has done more for the government than the government has done for the economy” is one of his more memorable lines.
Glen/Janette says: “what did Rudd just announce today an exact copy of Howard’s new interventionism…can this man ever think up his own policies or does he intend to steal all the Coalition’s????”
Yes, just like the time when Rudd came up with that new broadband policy – stolen in broad daylight, it was. And like the time when Rudd jumped on the bandwagon on climate change, after it was embraced by the Coalition.
Oh, hang on… Have I got it the wrong way round?
Ahem.
Frank Forde and Artie Fadden were both born and bred Queenslanders and represented Queensland electorates.
Andrew Fisher was a Scot by birth but represented Wide Bay in Federal Parliament.
At best Kev will be the first non-stopgap PM born in Queensland.
Dummkopf.
What’s amazing out of that Morgan poll, is the scary amount of support that Rudd is receiving from the ALP voters. The Greens are even more anti-howard, and even the independents have a 60/40 leaning, or worse for the coalition…
ALP Voters
Concerns With Rudd Visiting Strip Club
Yes, concern 5%
No, not concern 95%
Better Prime Minister: Howard vs Rudd
Howard 9%
Rudd 82%
Opposition Leader Approval raiting
Approve 86%
Disapprove 8%
Howard Approval Rating
Approve 21%
Disapprove 72%
This election is going to be a bloodbath. The coalition has to be looking down the barrell of a complete wipeout. They must be freaking out with these types of numbers.
Sie erhalten nur ein Latham, Glen.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22294673-23289,00.html
AMA wants fine print of Rudd plan
Already crumbling after its first few hours…
“LABOR leader Kevin Rudd’s $2 billion health plan does not explain clearly how the funds will be used, the AMA says.”
“This is like the cart without a horse,” Ms Capolingua said.
“States could react to their own health needs better than the Commonwealth, Ms Capolingua said.”
Rudd’s policies are all dudds…
Fraudband
IR/Union policy
Health
Dieses dumme HauptRudd bumsen, das er seinen Hahn herauf sein Arschloch… Howard anfüllen kann ist der beste Premierminister, wir überhaupt seine Nüsse gehabt haben, zum er heraus zu werfen jetzt er, verdienen doesnt zu verlieren.
General Wenck kommt wir gewinnt!
Do you think if you swear in German, nobody will notice?
Glen has gone a bit loopy. He really does think he’s in the Berlin bunker.
Translated…
Dieses dumme HauptRudd bumsen, das er seinen Hahn herauf sein Arschloch…
“This stupid Rudd bum, with his cock up his asshole…”
This is what Glen is now resorting to in his comments to this site… And you wonder your hate-mongers are going to get hammered laddy.
No but you all seem to think i am so i thought id make your day more interesting…
Lang leben der Führer und mit Wenck, kommend, das er die kommende ArbeitsPartei stoppt und wir gewinnen den Krieg!
By the way it wasnt the real Antony Green who talked about transexuals yesterday was it i wonder who hacked his account?
Glen,
Well, if the AMA’s spokesperson was questioning Rudd, then they really must think that Howard’s scattergun approach really sucks. After all, the states know better about what their systems need.
Just give them the money that has been kept from them.
Glen, how does “Already crumbling after its first few hours…” relate to the AMA saying they would like more detail? Even for you that’s a stupid comment, and that’s really saying something…
[“LABOR leader Kevin Rudd’s $2 billion health plan does not explain clearly how the funds will be used, the AMA says.â€
“This is like the cart without a horse,†Ms Capolingua said.
“States could react to their own health needs better than the Commonwealth, Ms Capolingua said.â€]
The AMA will oppose ANYTHING which will threaten their precious profit margin, they are more Militant than the old BLF and CFMEU combined. If the AMA had their way Australia would a US style of Health system where you need private iunsurance before a doctor will even SEE you.
It’s interesting that other commentators are saying that the budget surplus is NOT a sign of good management but the opposite.
The vertical fiscal imbalance is causing real pain.
The Exclusive Brethren have done John Howard more good than harm this time. It was good that Kevin Rudd was so strong in his condemnation of this strange ungodly sect.
The Morgan poll was amazing for Kevin Rudd. It’ll make John Howard even more jittery. He was very defensive on the EB visit and contradictory on tax breaks for first home buyers.
John Howard’s good friend Geoffrey has had considerable coverage and again it’s bad for the Coalition.
It really does look like the end game for John Howard.
They’d be mad to go after November 3rd in the vain hope the polls will turn. If the rates do go up on 7th and they go later than that, it will be a total bloodbath.
Granted Bigbob and Dario…
I accept your points…clearly what we all want is more detail on this policy that’s a given…before we can comment on its merits…it might be a good policy but we’ll have to wait and see…
Still i love how with Rudd’s intervention the States don’t mind and welcome it but when Howard does it he’s going against the Constitution…but i should accept that that is politics…
Warum nicht schauen die Abstimmungen besser?
It is possible to toss a coin 27 times and have it come up tails each time … but if it did, you would have good cause to suspect that something other than chance was at work. It still could be a fair coin … but it probably isn’t. In the same way, it is possible to have 27 polls in a row which are out of line (as defined by what the statisticians call the ‘confidence interval’, if I remember rightly) with what the population as a whole really thinks … but it would be very unlikely to happen just by chance. (Polls can be wrong for non-chance reasons. The so-called ‘margin of error’ is really a margin of sampling error, and polls can also be affected by non-sampling error. You can read about a historic example, also involving the first great Gallup triumph, here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Literary_Digest)
Richard he may decide to hold out until January 19th…
Whether or not the AMA like Rudd’s health plan the Australian population will. Glen – “Already crumbling after its first few hours…” Isn’t this the same man who predicited Rudd’s visit to a strip club would destroy him and that it would be in the media for a week. It run out after Tuesday.
If the next two polls see Rudd go up and Howard done then ill have to eat my hat Gary Bruce but not before…
If Howard holds out until the 19th of January Wilson Tuckey will be the next leader of the opposition.
Actually wont the Nationals then be the Official Opposition…
All these investment funds, super,higher ed.,hospitals etc etc,there is a nice little earner for some lucky fund managers. All Tip looks like he is feather bedding for his future employers.
The 30 workers in Queensland who signed AWA`s only to find they lost all their redundancy money, while their workmates that did not kept theirs, is not going to help retain seats in Queensland. The ABC could not contact Avuncular Joe the scurge of Union Bosses .Iwonder why?
William, this thread is becoming a little crazy.
I wouldnt get too carried away.
Just happy that it is very likely Labor’s position is still firm coming into an election campaign.
Rates wont go up nor down in November, and I think the govt will know that. The reserve bank is independent, not provocative.
Glen: “Actually wont the Nationals then be the Official Opposition”
Huh? What? If the swing against the Coalition is as strong as the polls suggest, then the NP will be lucky to retain official party status in the federal parliament. The Nationals are already worn down to a rump, not just due to demographics, but also due to inroads made by the Libs and rural Independents. For example, if Vaile retires after the next election, I doubt his seat will be kept by the Nats.
Thanks JD, I was trying to work out if one could distinguish between the errors we get each time (sampling plus systematic) from the rogue concept … it seems to me the answer is yes.
I was also trying to work out if there was a definitional issue with rogue that meant unlike the 27 toin tosses heads, which is merely impropable. It seems 27 rogue polls is merely improbable, not definitionaly impossible.
As soon as APEC’s over, there’s going to be increasing pressure on the govt to call an election. If they don’t call one soon, they’ll be accused of holding out too long. The last election was 9 Oct 2004, so the next one should be at the most 3 years later. Obviously, with APEC, it’s not going to be, but pressure will mount after APEC. This campaign has been going since Feb this year, and voters won’t appreciate much extension beyond the 3 year anniversary of the last election.
If the polls don’t start to turn by April May The Budget The tax cuts kick in August September then the government could be in trouble.
Glen, it would be exceedingly unlikely he would hold off until then. It would start to look really desperate. Even the media would start demanding he go to the people.
His best bet is still November 3rd. The markets have settled and there have been some extraordinary profit reports. Demand is still there.
In other words, the Reserve Bank will likely increase rates.
It must be pretty disappointing for a loyal Liberal supporter to see one poll after the other giving Kevin Rudd a huge lead, but these things happen.
The unfortunate thing for loyalists such as yourself is that John Howard was unable to see that people would be tired of him after eleven and a half years. He may have been right a year ago that he would have won, especially against Kim, and would have done better than Peter Costello.
Time moves on and he hasn’t. His chances are fading by the day and he didn’t help himself by allowing the Exclusive Brethren to have a private audience. The image is simply appalling.
Jas – polls usually run with a 95% confidence interval.Essentially that means that 1 in 20 polls will be outside of that interval, hence “rogue”.It’s in those 1 in 20 that you get the whacky results.
Although if you listen to a couple of commentators here, 9 in 10 polls are rogue 😉
I suppose if that’s what they need to believe to maintain their sanity… more power to them.