Commenters at the business end of the country inform me, via Lateline, that tomorrow’s Newspoll will be as you see in the headline (after a 56-44 result a fortnight ago). It is against my religion to read anything into one poll in isolation. Nonetheless, I am tempted to interpret this as the interest rate hike being cancelled out by what Matt Price describes as the government’s “potentially quite good bad news”, namely last week’s stock market dive.
UPDATE: Kevin Rudd’s lead on preferred prime minister has widened from 44-39 to 46-39.
UPDATE 2: The Australian reports Labor’s primary vote is down from 48 per cent to 46 per cent (equal lowest since February), with the Coalition steady on 39 per cent.
UPDATE 3: Graphic here, Shanahan here.
The political scenario has changed from don’t spend what you haven’t got , to how do we spend what have got.
Obviously, the Libs have no idea.
I agree that Turnbull put in a good performance on the 7.30 Report over the pulp mill stuff, though he went into ear-glazing detail about the process he went through. Certainly gave the impression that he had been thorough, and didn’t put the boot into Cousins.
I noted earlier today that Rudd put the boot into the Exclusive Brethren, proving once again that he IS prepared to differ with the government on some issues. In particular, I noted his claim that the EB damaged families. This, of course, is true – I used to share a house with someone who was brought up in that religion, and his family had been split apart when his father was “excommunicated” over a mild difference of opinion about an aspect of church dogma.
Suggesting that Howard met with leaders of a religion that damages families sounds like an effective wedge to me.
“Labor can retort that it can be best trusted to preserve people’s jobs and wages.”
Tony im afraid that the ALP cannot take that position…because the last time Labor was in office in…unemployment was at 10% and wages decreased by 1%…compared to the Coalition’s 4.3% unemployment and 20% rise in real wages.
Really the only issue that will keep Howard in power is the economy and no matter how much Rudd tries he wont be trusted with the economy not with the likes of Swan backing him up.
Of course, we can say what we like on this blog about the Exclusive Brethren. If they’re devout, they’ll never read it.
Of course they don’t. They don’t really want to spend it in the first place.
Adam (August 22nd, 2007 at 12:09 pm),
Next you’ll be wanting me to reveal who leaked the information to the press about the governor’s free tickets on Continental 20 odd years ago. J-D and AK have now given some references to Shreddergate, particularly to Truth of Sydney, who manages to bring the subject up almost every time no matter what the topic of the blogs on The Australian actually is. It is old news, but I just have a feeling that it will be used against Kevin Rudd. There are some nasty elements in this election campaign, and some bullets will be fired -metaphorically speaking – in the interests of the government but not by the government which will want to keep some distance between itself and the under-campaign.
Steve Bracks was often blamed for the failings of the previous Labor Governments of Victoria because he was an adviser to John Cain and Joan Kirner. I have been a giver of advice to various school principals who have rejected my advice, created disaster and then blamed me for the consequences of their failure to take my advice in the first place. I’m sure not all of Mr Bracks’s advice was taken. It is similar with Kevin Rudd. He was an adviser, though with more authority than Steve Bracks or I had, but not ultimately responsible for government decisions. Nonetheless, mud will be thrown. That is the significance of the mud already thrown – to make the public more receptive to more.
I agree that the tactic in itself will not work, but Kevin Rudd needs to be ready with a direct response for it because I think he has already given the last foot-shuffling response that he can afford.
jasmine_Anadyr (August 22nd, 2007 at 12:01 pm),
The $17 billion surplus to which you allude is a fascinating example of the change in Australian political life. The Liberals have gone all socialist, buying up bits of companies to spend the income on infrastructure, when it would be more prudent to spend the capital on infrastructure that would add to growth and pay for itself. I wonder if Labor can capitalize on this, or if it has trapped itself into being a low-spending party just as the Victorian Labor Party did during 1992-999 when it kept attacking the Kennettt Government’s “excessive†taxes, thus undercutting its own ability to deliver on community services when it was finally elected.
Speaking of economy Glen, where’s your $55.
Glen Says:Tony im afraid that the ALP cannot take that position…because the last time Labor was in office in…
And what was productivity Glen?
It was easy to pay by the way. Give it a go.
Tony, it is a no brainer for Kevin Rudd. This cult is certainly no friend of anyone on the moderate side of politics or even the middle of politics, come to that.
Most real Christians would be horrified at the activities of the Exclusive Brethren and the way they treat families.
Remember John Howard said that soldiers wearing KKK hoods were merely letting off steam. He wasn’t at all disapproving.
I actually think this could damage John Howard more than that strip club saga damaged Kevin Rudd.
John Howard actually thinks it is OK meeting with the leaders of this heavy duty cult in private.
I wonder if he would have given Jim Jones a private meeting too?
Probably, if there was enough money and support involved.
Glen, I don’t necessarily disagree with your facts. I’m just talking tactics here. Don’t forget that Keating was thrown out in 1996. Talking about whaat it was like back then means little to any voter under 30. My children, who are almost voting age, wouldn’t know who Paul Keating was (though they seem to remember Bob Hawke). They’re really only known Howard as Prime Minister. The Labor Party they know is the one led by Kevin Rudd, or the state government.
A lot of the workers who’d lack confidence about their jobs, in the event of a downturn, would be young, and frequently casual or part-time employees. I think the line I suggested, about Labor preserving wages and conditions better than the Libs, would work with them, and they wouldn’t want to hear what things were like under Keating (or Billy McMahon, or Ben Chifley).
At least Costello and Howard know what productivity is Rudd didn’t know how to answer a question on radio about it because he said there was no productivity growth looking at the budget papers but forgot to mention that productivity was going to rise according to the forward estimates…
http://andrewlanderyou.blogspot.com/2007/08/strippergate-why-non-event-could-spell.html
Landeryou insinuates the moral defects of the current cabinet. Interesting to put names to each.
re:Productivity under Howards watch.
By Wayne Swan, Shadow Treasurer
…when you strip away all the specious hysterics and bald dishonesties, there is one cold hard fact John Howard and Peter Costello simply cannot deny. Productivity growth on their watch has undergone a clear, long-term structural decline.
During the five-year productivity cycle to 1998-99, market sector labour productivity grew by an annual average of 3.3 per cent. It fell to just 2.1 per cent during the following five-year productivity cycle to 2003-04. And since then it has fallen even further, averaging just 1 per cent.Costello’s Intergenerational Report estimates economy-wide labour productivity growth of just 1.5 per cent a year for this decade, well below the rate of growth we have been able to achieve during previous decades.
His denials of his productivity failure have also been directly exposed by Reserve Bank of Australia governor Glenn Stevens, who says:
“There are quite careful measures of productivity [that] can be made over longer periods,” Stevens said. These measures, he confirmed, “suggest a slowdown”.
… no plan. Squandering the hard work done by the previous generation. Hell of a legacy.
But wait… there’s more…
The Business Council of Australia, not a body prone to contradicting the Howard Government lightly, has also bluntly exposed the Treasurer’s productivity failure. More worrying, labour productivity growth has slowed sharply in Australia. The BCA noted in its budget submission this year that:
â€This deterioration in productivity performance is a very real concern,”
Tony, of course you’re right, the Exclusive Brethren won’t be reading these comments nor will they see what Kevin Rudd said about them on TV, that is unless they have a “Friends of the Exclusive Brethren” who are not members but relay back information!
Bad career move for John Howard
So they’ve saved cash to splurge on tax cuts that leads to inflation, but any structural change necessary has been squandered away, and the proof is in long-term decline in productivity.
Like I said… hell of a legacy.
Tony what is depressing is that not enough children are taught anything about politics in school when they should.
If they were taught about politics they’d know about Keating’s necessary reforms of the 1980s but also his borrowing that put us 96b in debt and high interest rates and unemployment at 10%…
History is against Rudd…nobody has been elected to high office with so little experience…even Hawke led the ACTU for decades before becoming PM…i think the voters like what they see from Rudd but i dont think they’ll give him the nod this time he’ll have to wait another 3 years before he becomes Prime Minister in 2010.
If anything will cost Rudd it will be his inexperience…
” paul k Says:
August 22nd, 2007 at 9:15 pm
I don’t buy the people won’t vote Labor because only the Liberals can run the economy story. ”
Maybe I should elaborate on why I don’t think the economic argument works so well anymore. I live in Melbourne and the argument Howard is making now about Labor is exactly the same argument that Kennett made about Bracks before Kennett lost the state election. I think if people feel confident with the Leader of the Opposition like we did in Victoria it goes a long way to blunting the economic argument. Rudd is not Latham or Keating. He has the look and feel of a conservative politician. He even looks like a bank manager or an accountant. He doesn’t scare the horses.
Perhaps the next installment of the ever-changing workchoices legislation should include the mandatory supply of whips to all australian employers?
Glen Says: If anything will cost Rudd it will be his inexperience…
What is going to cost Howard this election, is exactly the opposite of your assertion… It will be Australias experience with him…
Back on the issue of the movements in the Newspoll, I dont dont think there is a tension between improvement in PPM and economic management and no real movement in primary vote. I suspect that the primary and TPP readouts are leading indicators and that the other factors are folloowing.
If my supposition is correct then it would suggest that the Labor vote is firming up. It is reducing the number of people who are susceptible to change between now and the election.
On a slightly different tack I am intrigued about the way the Exclusive Brethren story is developing. In contrast to the Rudd in NY beat up, this one started as almost a non-event which more and more people are picking up on. It seems it may develop substantial momentum where the lack of explanation on the purpose of meetings will give rise to increasing suspicions.
The lack of transparency behind these meetings together with the absence of due process and capriciousness of aspirational nationalism are a volatile combination that has the potential to go anywhere.
Glen,
I am impressed by your tenacity in that you never give up but I’m not sure what you expect to gain with your arguments. They’re the exact same arguments we hear on TV and radio everyday from the government with nothing original added. If ads put together by professionals don’t sell the story what makes you think rehashing the story on a blog will convince anyone?
Have the Howard years really been that bad Pi???
Clearly Australia is better off than it was in 1996…we have not gone backwards not one step…there is no reason for change what we’ve got…
We have…
Low interest rates
High levels of employment
Low inflation
Budget Surplus after Surplus
Why would you want to risk it with an inexperienced leader??
By the way Kennett didnt lose the 1999 election the Independents lost it for him…
If Howard loses he’ll leave Labor with mountains of cash to blow like Bracks did with the windfall Kennett left him…Rudd will consider himself lucky…but he and Swan will stuff it up i wouldnt trust those two to balance a check book.
Glen,
Where’s your money. You obviously love the banter. Come on, user pay. Libs love that sort of guff.
Talk is cheap, especially for you.
Glen Says: Have the Howard years really been that bad Pi???
Ever since he started demonizing the helpless (i.e. 2001)…
Yes.
Paul K
In your opinion anything i say that is critical of Rudd or the ALP or left wing politics in general is the ‘exact same arguments we hear on TV and radio everyday from the government with nothing original added’…
That is a cop out Paul, i dont try and belittle people like many do and say their beliefs come straight from party HQ…just because i hold different views to you Paul doesnt make mine any less valid to yours.
So Says Glen
I saw the Exclusive Brethren story on three different TV stations tonight and they all showed a very negative view of the PMs attitude. The show’s painted the EB as a type of Australian Taliban with the PM looking like the Bagdad Minister of Information. The only good thing Howard could say about the the Brethren was that they’re not criminals. Not a good look.
Glen,
The inexperienced Steve Bracks did not “blow†the “windfall†that Jeff Kennett left him. He used the modest taxation revenue of Victoria and the GST to spend moderately on improved public services.
I only have to take the dog for a walk – past the brand new CFA station, the brand new primary school and the brand new police station.
Victorian voters look around and see brand new schools, $1.4 billiion already invested in capital spending on schools (and a start on the promised $1.9 billion during this term), 5,193 extra teachers for their children, their kids in prep to grade 2 classes of only 21 pupils. Steve Bracks’s government improved the primary pupil-teacher ratio from 17.2:1 in 1999 to 16.1:1 in 2006, after the Liberals had worsened it. His government improved the secondary pupil-teacher ratio from 12.6:1 in 1999 to 12.0:1 in 2006, after the Liberals had worsened it.
All this has been achieved while saving the state economy more than $2 billion in taxation. Victoria’s taxes have dropped as a percentage of Gross State Product under Labor from 5.8 per cent to 4.5 per cent. Recurrent spending by the state and local governments, according to Tim Colebatch, is, at 10.3 per cen, less than every other state except for WA.
The success of the Bracks Governmnt was so obvious that the Victorian people re-elected it with two of three three largest landslides in Victorian history. The same will happen if Kevin Rudd wins this year: he will be a shoo-in in the subsequent double dissolution election.
They are part of the marginal seat campaign. Specifially, Bennelong.
Glen,
Of coarse your views are valid and you have a right to support who ever you wish. It’s just that you often repeat the same mistakes the government ads do so I don’t understand what you are trying to prove when you know no one here believes that stuff. However I apologise if I seemed to be “belittling” you, I did not intend to.
Who is worse Union thugs like Kevin Reynolds and Kevin Harkins or the Exclusive Brethren…they are both terrible…lets face it neither party is totally clean…
Interesting Rudd wants to be all high and mighty after meeting with Brian Burke 3 times and visited strip joints…
Paul k it wouldnt surprise me if the media takes a negative view of the PM they always do…why??? Because 95% vote for the ALP…the Liberals never get a good run with the media its something i have to live with…
Glen,
Who is worst, someone who doesn’t pay their way.
Ante up!
[Tony im afraid that the ALP cannot take that position…because the last time Labor was in office in…unemployment was at 10% and wages decreased by 1%…compared to the Coalition’s 4.3% unemployment and 20% rise in real wages.]
For the millionith time, you are relying on the government’s figures which ignore billions of dollars of superannuation.
You are ignoring the fact that the economy was in stagflation in 1983. Howard and Fraser did nothing to stop inflation from constantly ruining the economy.
[Who is worse Union thugs like Kevin Reynolds and Kevin Harkins or the Exclusive Brethren]
EASY QUESTION! The exclusive brethren are worse, because they do their best to make it impossible for members to leave. This includes excomunication, ruining families, stopping adolescents from going to universities. This is how they retain power, and most likely, money. If you want to leave a union you just stop paying fees.
This is an organisation that hates liberty and democracy, and should be treated by governments as such.
The exclusive brethren understand the FREEDOM OF association part of liberal democracy, but they fail at the FREEDOM FROM association part.
Why do senior government ministers cosy up to them, instead of treating them like an extreemist religious / political organisation?
Would Howard accept their donations if they were – dare I say it – Muslims?
I wonder if some of the Canberra journalists are engaged in some of those minsters secret sexaul activities and is why the stand so strongly ‘behind’ the govt. I would love to know what Howard was getting up to.
as per the previous link:
http://andrewlanderyou.blogspot.com/2007/08/strippergate-why-non-event-could-spell.html
Interestingly, the Rudd EB has been the “most popular” on the ABC website today…here’s an excerpt:
Mr Rudd says members of the group have approached him in his Brisbane electorate, asking for a meeting.
He says that would be inappropriate.
“I believe that this is an extremist cult and sect,” he said.
“I also believe that it breaks up families.
“I also believe that there are real problems with the provision of modern education to kids under their system, where they are – for example – not given access to the full range of information technology systems.”
As someone else on this blog has pointed out, the story is starting to take off after being out there for a long time. The EB caused a lot of trouble in New Zealand. I just find it very odd that a group whose members don’t vote are so keen to meet with politicians!
Why is anyone surprised that John Howard, an aged man who has completly lost his faculties but not yet his majority is cosnspiring with comuunists.
Boo!
I think the Libs will eventually regret the money they’re taking from the EB. No one likes them. And they can’t be a good look for the government. Rudd should go in on this issue boots and all. It will be popular to bag EB as the PM’s money bag.
Anybody else notice that ‘strippergate’ is well and truly dead everywhere except for Murdoch’s rags.
“Anybody else notice that ’strippergate’ is well and truly dead everywhere except for Murdoch’s rags.”
So it’s just in 92 papers then. That’s a relief heheh.
Fifty bucks, btw. Done. Fresh hot bandwidth mmm.
[Anybody else notice that ’strippergate’ is well and truly dead everywhere except for Murdoch’s rags.]
If the exclusive brethren story runs for a couple of days, then Howard will hand back the money. If it dies down, then he will keep it.
[“I also believe that there are real problems with the provision of modern education to kids under their system, where they are – for example – not given access to the full range of information technology systems.â€]
Rudd screwed up here, he needed to clearly say “They don’t give children access to computers and the internet”.
What he said just sounds confusing.
Was just looking into Wayne Swan’s background, as I read today in Crikey he is the only frontbencher on either side with ‘advanced economic credentials’. His bio says he has a BA and lectured at QIT for yonks in Public Administration, which I imagine is a solid start for treasurer types. Anyone know the man better?
He’s also done five years shadowing family and community services. And has written a book on the subject of wealth distribution. I like the sound of that in a treasurer, but no doubt it makes the dries shudder.
The other Roy – Big, Mean Roy Asotasi from the all conquering South Sydney Rabbitohs – heard Pretty Woman, Communication Breakdown and L-A-N-A on the wireless this week. The royalties mean I can kick in. Hopefully, us dead guys can work out Paypal. I might even put in some for Glen, as he seems strangely reticent. Obviously, the Socialist leanings of this site affect him. Still, it’s catch and kill your own in the Tory world he lives in…
Simon Howson Says: Rudd screwed up here, he needed to clearly say “They don’t give children access to computers and the internetâ€. What he said just sounds confusing.
You’re right about that. He’s definitely a diplomat… really careful with what he says, when really, sometimes powerful simple words and ideas are more effective.
” Crispy Says:
August 22nd, 2007 at 11:13 pm
Was just looking into Wayne Swan’s background ”
Swan is a good man on paper but he is as boring as hell and not quick enough on his feet for television. He a good backroom brain but not very impressive on National TV. Not sure how he’ll do in a televised debate with Costello who knows how to entertain an audience.
[ His bio says he has a BA and lectured at QIT for yonks in Public Administration, which I imagine is a solid start for treasurer types. Anyone know the man better?]
Is Craig Emerson back on the front bench? He has a Ph.D. in economics from Harvard.
Crean has an Honours degree in economics.
Didn’t do too much for the Gauls that sort of thing.
William,
Old Roy does indeed have a problem. Paypal only seems to accept two cards, neither of them Roy’s. And it looks friggin’ complicated. What is that first line about?
[blockquote]Libs will eventually regret the money they’re taking from the EB.[/blockquote]
You’re kidding aren’t you? They’d take money from the devil incarnate vide the $1 000 000 they took w/o blinking from Baron Michael Ashcroft. Always wondered what the quo quid pro was for that. Any clues here?
[blockquote]Libs will eventually regret the money they’re taking from the EB.[/blockquote]
You’re kidding aren’t you? They’d take money from the devil incarnate vide the $1 000 000 they took w/o blinking from Baron Michael Ashcroft. Always wondered what the quo quid pro was for that. Any clues here?
Noticed Howard saying he’d take tea and prayers with any legal org. Now let’s see would have seen the guys from:
Falun Gong
Church of Scientology