The latest Roy Morgan fortnightly (I think) face-to-face survey of 1772 voters has the two-party vote steady at 55-45, with the Coalition primary vote remaining at 40.5 per cent and Labor down 0.5 per cent to 47 per cent. There are also supplementary figures on strength of voting intention, which at first look like splendid news for the Coalition – their vote is 34 per cent “strong” and 6.5 per cent “soft”, compared with 30 per cent and 17 per cent for Labor. However, I am slightly dubious about the method here, which involved asking respondents if they felt Australia was “heading in the right direction” and marking their Coalition support as “strong” if they said yes. For what it’s worth, the survey records a sharp rise in expectations of a Labor victory.
Blaming the states for a rise in interest rates: is this really going to work with the average voter? After listening to the Liberal Party’s Campaign Director on radio this morning, I have to wonder if these people are really losing the plot? Very bizarre!
As for Costello, he should have had the guts to challenge Howard 12 months ago, but it’s too late for all that, the reward Pete will get is the Opposition Leadership, if one believes the polls.
Well, having discussed ‘leaked’ polling with a colleague who was a researcher working on polling for one of the major parties, she reckoned that they are a load of bollocks. She recounted the tale of a ‘leaked’ poll from ‘ALP sources’ which they were most surprised about – because it hadn’t been conducted. So, when I hear about ‘leaked polls’ I go straight to “what they are trying to generate with this story”? This leaked poll might be to gee up backbenchers (stop the waverers on NT intervention legislation, call a halt to the factional bickering, sort out a couple of ‘old-timers’ and get some new blood in etc), might be a positioning for the Lib ad campaign (focus on states, and make it sound like voters are concerned about that) and so-on.
The simple fact is that there is no real point in speculating on leadership changes, election dates, opinion polls etcetera.
The bottom line is that both major parties have decided their leadership, and will be going into the election with those leaders in place. There will be no change of leader on either side.
The election itself will be held at the expiry of the three years term, in either October or November, not sooner, and not later.
The opinion polls will continue to reflect what a small sample of people choose to tell pollsters about their voting intentions at a particular point in time, and the election itself will tell all of us who the people of our great nation really do trust to manage our economy, our country and our national security – and who they do not trust.
So says Cerdic Conan.
Crosby/Textor are notorious as push pollers and their data should be discounted. The report’s leak by faithful Howard supporters is clearly a ploy to shore up our dear leader’s support in the face of the spineless front bench and backbenchers who have neither the bottle or the brains to mount any sort of challenge even in the face of electoral oblivion.
Krudd and his KGB trained union henchmentare toast on the basis of this report.
Who will wager non-existent net-dollars on the next Newspoll?
Somewhere between 55 and 52, with 55 less likely.
Looks like Labor don’t have to run their “he’s too old” campaign.
The Murdoch tabloids have done it for them right across Australia.
Rupert Murdoch and his editors have evidently seen the writing on the wall, as well as in a leaked poll.
These are devastating headlines for John Howard. He may not be able to recover from them.
Yes, the timing is very interesting.
Members will be gathering after the winter break and uppermost in their minds will be these headlines.
Is that Brutus behind that column with a dagger hidden in his toga?
Murdoch turning on Howard? Who would have predicted that?
Never mind, the PM still has Alan Jones and Neil Mitchell in his corner LOL
Time for Newspoll predictions(new poll out tomorrow):
ALP: 55, COALITION: 45.
ALP 56
LIB/NAT 44
Rupert Murdoch has become mellower since he married Wendy.
He has also recognised the urgency of dealing with global warming and is aware that Kevin Rudd is tuned in to the problem much better than John Howard.
He gave his imprimatur to Kevin Rudd on the Washington visit.
Newspoll? ALP 54-55% to COALITION 46-45%.
Anything outside this would, I think, be unusual and noteworthy.
Interestingly the ‘leaked’ polling in the Daily Terror says:
but it also found…
Glenn Milne in the Oz today says 50-60 year-old people are going greener, and are concerned about the welfare of the planet; they are likely to change their votes on this issue. This is bad news for the govt.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22193114-7583,00.html
I think Newspoll will be status quo 55-45, but I’d LOVE it to be better for Labor.
This election campaign has been running all year, and I would think the electorate is pretty much fed up with it already. If Howard delays the election too long past the 3 yr anniversary, they’ll blame the govt for all the delayed annoyance.
I don’t think it’s very likely that this Textor leak was done by Howard supporters. It looks really bad, and takes attention away from the current palaver about the states being responsible for interest rises. No this was done by an enemy, probably an insider.
This ploy really smacks of desperation, and that will work even further against Howard. Does anyone apart from the rusted-on believe a word of this? We are seeing an increasingly desperate Howard, willing to do anything, repeat anything to hold on to power. At least that’s how I see it. Prediction 55/45 Newspoll.
I didn’t say anything about who won the elections. I referred to how a majority of Australian voters voted. A majority of Australian voters voted for Labor in 1969, 1972, 1974, 1983, 1984, 1987, 1993, and 1998: eight elections. A majority of Australian voters voted for the Coalition in 1966, 1975, 1977, 1980, 1990, 1996, 2001, and 2004: eight elections.
Dont all politicians always try to get the “under dog” spot. Doesnt Howard get alot of support from the media/punters when he seems to be doing one of his ” watch him go folks, here comes Johnny from way behind” type things? Didnt I see a ed piece the other day say JH is “looking like he’s got his stride back?”
You think mebbe the leak was on purpose to create this exact perception. He’s down, he’s gone, no..wait…it’s the second last post folks and the rodent in red is making a terrific comeback on the outer rail.
Given that leak came from his main guys, I’d say its more then possible
Rob, it probably goes without saying that it wasn’t leaked by Howard supporters. It may have been leaked by Costello or Turnbull supporters on the other hand, although it doesn’t really help Costello. It certainly damages John Howard, possibly mortally.
You’d have to say that if it was leaked by a Liberal then that Liberal wanted a change of leadership, hence the timing.
The headline in the Herald Sun is stunningly bad.
I’m not sure either party has done anything in the past two weeks that would shift across additional voters (maybe a few hundred in Braddon to the Libs, but that’s about it). I’ll say 55 – 45 for Newspoll tomorrow.
I’ll say 56/44 ALP. The speculation about interest rates may have shifted some mortgage holders to ALP. AC Nilesen will be interesting next Monday if Wednesday’s rates announcement lifts rates as expected.
Question: With Howard having spent so much taxpayers money on partisan advertising, when the ads the Liberal Party itself pays for start appearing, will the dummer parts of the population believe they too have been paid for by taxpayers?
It’s been blindingly obvious for a while now that the Murdoch press has been foolishly turning away from Mr Howard and his Government; even Andrew Bolt produced some very hostile pieces after he returned from his holiday (thankfully he’s starting to come to his senses).
Of course, they’ll all be left with egg on their faces when the Coalition is re-elected and they’re scrambling to get back into the Government’s good books.
Where did I say that, or anything like it?
Well, we haven’t have a “rogue” Newspoll for a while (or have we??) so I will say 51-49 Labor, everyone will get terribly excited, then next week an ACN poll will come out showing 55-45, and a lot of very dodgy analysis in the mean time. It may not happen this time, but I bet it will sometime between now and the election.
They’re staring reality in the face Steve. Something you’ll start doing in the next month or so.
Brumby has made a good point. The states all have AAA credit ratings.
The leak smells to me to be someone positioning himself or herself for after the election. It does not help Howard at all and if the Libs. loose Costello will never be PM.
That leaves someone like Turnbull or Abbott or Nelson or someone acting in their interest.
Richard Jones said [quote]Rob, it probably goes without saying that it wasn’t leaked by Howard supporters.[/quote/ Yea, I guess it’s stating the bleedin’ obvious. But a couple of posts here have suggested that the leak may have been contrived to garner a sympathy vote or some other reason. Can’t see that happening!
If anyone is in any doubt that the Libs know they are in trouble just look at the body language and reactions from Costello recently. He almost seems uninterested and at best exasperated.
I realise internet polls are very questionable but just the same this is a remarkable result. 20,000 respondents.
http://www.smh.com.au/polls/politics/results.html
I’m on record on this site as saying the election will be 50-50 with Labor falling 6 seats short. I’ll stick to that for the time being but I have to admit it’s looking less likely.
Howard is flailing wildly at the moment. I think the interest rate attack on the stakes will probably backfire. The first thing my (apolitical) wife said on seeing them was “what he wants to take all the credit when they are low and none of the blame when they go up?”. I think that will be the reaction of most moderately or less informed people about the ads.
Murdoch sniffing the wind and seemingly turning away from the Coalition is ominous indeed for Howard. I don’t know how many votes it actually influences but he likes to be on the winning side. It is all about the business empire after all, he has to deal with whoever is in power.
My punt on the election date is Nov 10.
These latest tactics by Howard show just how much trouble they are in. The premiers won’t accept this lying down. They basically have a good story to tell. Hell, three of them have been returned with big majorities in the last 12 months – that’s not a sign that people find them threatening or inept.
Well Steven, we’ll have a pretty good idea within the week. If the Newspoll shows a closing of the gap then there is just a small chance John Howard can get re-elected.
As you see, there is now real pressure for the election to be held in mid November.
Do the sums. Follow the charts and see where they are pointing. A mid November election would be likely to see a 52%ALP-48% Coalition result on the current trends.
Unfortunately for the Coalition, this latest round of appalling headlines in the Murdoch tabloids couple with a rate increase, is likely to depress the Coalition vote.
You’d need 54%-46% Newspoll tomorrow to be in the race at all.
The rate increase a year ago depressed the Coalition vote.
Rob there’s not a snowball’s chance in hell that leaking the report would have helped John Howard or the Coalition. It’s fanciful to think so.
It may just help a leadership spill.
Politics is a ruthless game and the big players play really rough.
Richard Jones – you really are dreaming. There’s going to be no change of leadership in either the Liberal Party or the Labor Party prior to the election. Both parties have made their choice.
So says Cerdic Conan.
Until I read this report on the ABC http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/08/06/1997347.htm?section=justin I hadn’t realised what it was that bugged me so much about Howard’s outrageous claim that the states are to blame for interest rate rises.
Political leaders cannot just go around spouting rubbish. Where are the economists, the professional bodies, the peak bodies? How can they sit back and let the quality of debate fall like this? Can it be they’re also politically tied to the govt?
Gary, that SMH poll was no doubt correct for an online poll but of no use whatsoever in determining the mood of the electorate as a whole.
John Howard’s support base is in the over 50s and gets higher as they get older. Very few of those go online, some of us excepted!
The attack on the states for the possible interest rate increase is ludicrous in the extreme. They have AAA ratings!
People understand that they need to borrow for infrastructure and want the infrastructure built and repaired. They want new hospitals and schools and public transport and roads.
Those borrowings do not add to increases in the CPI.
Increases in the CPI are caused by increased expenditure by “consumers” with their $31 billion dollars in tax cuts.
The culprit is John Howard aided and abetted by Peter Costello and probably in spite of Treasury’s recommendations.
The absurdity is that the Federal government is awash with our money while the states are forced to borrow to keep infrastructure intact.
This imbalance needs to be addressed in future and probably will with a change of government.
Gary Bruce – apart from getting re-elected against dud oppositions, just what is this good story that the States have to tell? They have failed on just about every performance measure you can think of !
So says Cerdic Conan.
I see David Barnett is calling for John Howard to step aside in today’s Canberra Times. He’s not exactly a lightweight.
The Murdoch papers have been running anti-Government headlines for a while now – recall the Daily Telegraph’s story about Sydney supposedly walking away from the PM – and yet the Coalition’s poll position has been steadily improving. Anyway, the press has practically zero influence over voters – remember how every journo in the country was imploring us to vote for the Republic back in ’99?
And to those in raptures over this leaked report – it was compiled in June, and said that there were medium swings away from the Government in NSW and Victoria but only a small one in Queensland. I don’t think medium and small will cut it.
Richard Jones – ask yourself why it is that the States need to borrow money to keep infrastructure intact. They get a huge windfall in GST revenue from the federal government – the best financing deal they have ever got from the federal government in our entire federal history, and yet they still can’t budget responsibly to invest in infrastructure without needing to borrow more money! What’s going on there? Can’t they budget properly? It’s sheer incompetence.
So says Cerdic Conan.
Steven, it’s not the point when the report was compiled or even the medium and small swings.
The point is someone leaked the report with exquisite timing to get maximum coverage across Australia just prior to the re-convening of Parliament and a possible rate increase.
Now ask yourself, who would do that and why, at this particular time?
Qui bono?
The Labor Party obviously but, just possibly, a Liberal party person or group of persons who want a change of leadership. It was a Liberal party report after all.
You have to know that headlines like this right across Australia will indeed have an effect on voters’ perceptions of John Howard as PM.
This story lands in the lap of nervous backbenchers as the return to Canberra. How are they going to react?
Do you imagine they will laugh it off and close ranks behind “tricky” John Howard, the “loser”?
Some will, others will be grumbling like hell, realising their jobs are at greater risk.
If anything is to happen on a leadership change it will be in the next week.
The very least this major story will do is to destabilise the government.
Just imagine the questions in the House!
Richard if there is a leadership challenge in the next two weeks, I’ll buy you a drink! I thought it could have happened in May or June, but Costello has ruled it out…twice. OK a spill is out. The only option left is a tap on the shoulder and early retirement. He’d only consider retiring if the polls became really dire eg 35/65 . So, sorry, can’t see it happening. We’ll go to the polls with Howard.
If newspoll tomorrow shows the government going backwards then todays leak will gain even more significance. It is hard to imagine that it wouldn’t lead to renewed speculation over the Coalition leadership.
John Howard isn’t going anywhere and he’ll lead the Coalition to victory at the election. In the end, there’s no way the majority of the electorate is going to vote him out in favour of Kevin Rudd; and having seen Rudd’s utterly bizarre performance on the 7:30 Report last week I’m more convinced than ever of that. Deep down, does any Labor supporter here who saw it really think he was convincing?
Steven. In a word, yes.
Steven Kaye Says: The Murdoch papers have been running anti-Government headlines for a while now –
You must be reading different newspapers, and watching different 7:30 reports. Murdoch papers are as virulently blue-blood as it is possible to be, and they always have been. They’ve latched on to any possible positive spin for the coalition there is, and have been soundly lambasted for doing so.
What’s worrying, is that it shows you’re even more right-wing than they are.
What’s the bet when Rudd wins the next election we won’t hear of Steven Kaye again!
Good spin here from Iemma http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/08/06/1997614.htm?section=justin
How can Howard race into Tassie, spend $45 million to resurrect a hospital that everyone agrees in not economic to keep open, then in almost the next breath, accuse the states of driving up interest rates with reckless spending!!
He really is looking desperate.
Yes Richard Jones, I agree with Steven Kaye. You’re really clutching at straws now. There is not going to be any leadership change in the Liberal Party, so you’ll just have to get used to fact that the Man of Steel will be around for some time to come. Dudd’s days as an undefeated Opposition Leader are rapidly coming to a close ….
So says Cerdic Conan.
Completely agree. As are Howard’s days as an undefeated PM.
Is it just me, or does Howard look a bit more more like Latham every day?: a bit erratic, pulling policies out of hat with no lead time, expecting people to buy them on spec.
Howard’s flailing wildly and trying to KO every round. Meanwhile, Rudd’s soberly laying body punches and appears to have a 12-round strategy.
People will reflect on whether randomised funding of select hospitals in lib marginals is really a good way to run a health system – and decide that it isnt. And they’ll be right about that too.
Why on earth Howard picked a fight over health with ALP Premiers (who the public demonstrably trust more on this issue) is beyond me: another sign of his dimming political nous.
Now he wants all credit / no responsibility taken on interest rates. It’ll just smell like another Workchoices style betrayal in mortgage land.