Morgan: 55-45

The latest Roy Morgan fortnightly (I think) face-to-face survey of 1772 voters has the two-party vote steady at 55-45, with the Coalition primary vote remaining at 40.5 per cent and Labor down 0.5 per cent to 47 per cent. There are also supplementary figures on strength of voting intention, which at first look like splendid news for the Coalition – their vote is 34 per cent “strong” and 6.5 per cent “soft”, compared with 30 per cent and 17 per cent for Labor. However, I am slightly dubious about the method here, which involved asking respondents if they felt Australia was “heading in the right direction” and marking their Coalition support as “strong” if they said yes. For what it’s worth, the survey records a sharp rise in expectations of a Labor victory.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

618 comments on “Morgan: 55-45”

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  1. With an interest rate rise on the way and with Labor increasing its lead in the latest Newspoll,

    The inevatable seems near

    And so say Steveo

  2. After all the fuss over Dr Haneef,Mr Howards intervention in the NT,his blaming of the States for everything,the money for the hospital in Tassie and how all these would give the govt a boost,Mr Rudd still is in an election winning position. 56-44 ALP.

  3. Any guesses on how The Australian will spin the poll?

    I can’t quite see how they could put a pro-govt spin on this one – but they have surprised me the past.

  4. Apparently Shanahan is claiming that the latest poll is further evidence that the PM is on top of his game and tracking for victory.

  5. The problem the Government is with any of its messages is that the public no longer believe what they say – this has become a noose around its neck. You can’t keep saying someone else is to blame – you have to take some responsibility and accountability yourself but Howard doesn’t – there is always someone else to blame.

  6. This is a trend I would like to see continue.

    The coalition have had a few shocking days, Mersey Hospital is starting to read as a real negative, Lib polling shocker, Blame-the-States being read as the desperate ploy it is.

    Interest rates are set to rise – how can the rodent get any traction?

    In retrospect, I think the most significant poll result in the last few months was the figure that showed 58% of people polled were cynical about Howard’s motives in the intervention in the NT, despite most people thinking the intervention waas a good idea.

    Howard’s lost the trust, and the more he spins, the less people are listening.

  7. GREAT!!! First the Storm scrape home against the Sharks, now this poll. It’s not over yet, but it’s looking really really good for my side.

  8. No surprises there. Howard’s most realistic hope for several months now has been Rudd going under a bus.

    Self-references in third person, etc.

  9. Rudd isn’t winning this election, Howard is losing it. Its like he doesn’t have the heart for a good fight anymore. The only minister looking like their aware an election is coming up is Mal Brough.

    Winning Howard: We have had an interest rate rise because Australia is experiencing some of the best economic times in its history which are directly due to the policies of the last 11 years. Leadership is about tough decisions and my government decided to lower unemployment fully in the knowledge that it may increase interest rates, it was a tough call but its the one we made and I stand by it. But I also stand by my promise that interest rates will always be lower under my government then under a government controlled by unaccountable union thugs and state governments with no vision.

    Losing Howard: Its not my fault, its the states fault

    I predict 55-45 but, unless something really big happens, the next Newspoll will be worse for the government somewhere around 57-43.

  10. 56/44, I win! Plus one is statistical noise of course, but the govt would rather have the statistical noise going in the other direction.

    Funny watching the govt team trying to look stern reading from the songsheet…. ‘those states and their spending, dear me’. Such transparent and desperate nonsense.

  11. And now for something really controversial. In booth-mapping Adelaide, I noticed it has 58 booths, many more than the 34-40 of most urban seats. When I compared it with the other SA seats I have mapped I find the following:

    * Adelaide: 95,060 voters, 58 booths (1,638 voters / booth)
    * Boothby: 95,339, 42 (2,270)
    * Hindmarsh: 98,594, 45 (2,191)
    * Kingston: 94,131, 36 (2,615)
    * Makin: 93,909, 34 (2,762)
    * Wakefield: 90,756, 56 (1,621)

    Conclusion: outer suburban voters are being dudded by the AEC. I suspect the booths in Adelaide have been there for decades and the AEC doesn’t dare close any of them, while newer suburban areas in Kingston and Makin get fewer new booths. Adelaide has more booths even than Wakefield, which has a large rural component and needs more small booths. Bill! Your constituents are being swindled. Get onto it, comrade.

  12. # Richard Joneson 06 Aug 2007 at 6:29 pm
    Adam, qui bono is as correct as cui bono. Check it. I prefer the original latin! Amazing how useful latin is all these years later.

    I did check it. The top hit on Google for ‘qui bono’ is the Wikipedia article on ‘cui bono’, which says:

    Qui bono (literally “who with good”) is a common nonsensical Dog Latin misrendering.

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