With the scent of the government’s blood in the water, the nation’s newspapers have gone mad with opinion polling. For reasons unexplained, The Australian published Newspoll results last Tuesday (57-43), on Saturday (55-45) and today (60-40). The Fairfax papers yesterday conjured a front page story by adding together the last six months’ worth of ACNielsen polling. Like Newspoll’s quarterly aggregates, these produced state-by-state figures from believable samples. The thrust of the South Australian and Western Australian figures is supported by two sets of local polls: in the Sunday Mail, a survey of 601 South Australian voters had Labor leading 59-41, while in last Saturday’s West Australian, a Westpoll survey of 409 voters had the Coalition leading 51-49. Also:
• Jackie Kelly has announced she will not contest the election, depriving the Liberals of her considerable personal vote in the outer western Sydney seat of Lindsay. The redistribution has cut the Liberal margin in the seat from 5.3 per cent to 2.9 per cent. Penrith councillor Mark Davies has been named as Kelly’s most likely successor as Liberal candidate, and reportedly has her backing. Labor has again nominated the twice-unsuccessful David Bradbury, former Penrith mayor.
• The South Australian Liberal party has selected Mary Jo Fisher to fill Amanda Vanstone’s Senate vacancy, the term of which will expire in 2011. In what would appear to be another win for the state party’s ascendant Right faction, Fisher was chosen ahead of the moderate-backed Maria Kourtesis, who earlier contentiously failed to secure a winnable position on this year’s Senate ticket.
• Labor provoked another round of debate over the merits of celebrity candidates last week when it preselected ABC weatherman Mike Bailey to run against Joe Hockey in North Sydney. Also widely noted was the number of ABC personnel turning up as Labor candidates.
• Labor’s Sharon Grierson has effortlessly survived a preselection challenge in Newcastle. The ABC reports that a rank-and-file ballot delivered her more than 80 per cent of the vote over her challenger, Merewether West branch secretary David March.
Greetings from York, fellow tragics. Yesterday in Scotland I visited the graves of my great-great and great-great-great-grandparents in a cold, windswept churchyard – quite a buzz. More great-greats tomorrow.
Someone above said “1907 Hughes said this of Fisher: “What a career his has been! In his hands, at various times, have rested the banners of every party in the country. He has proclaimed them all, he has held them all, he has betrayed them allâ€.”
This cannot be correct. Fisher only ever belonged to one party (Labor), and in 1907 Hughes had also only belonged to Labor. This quote might have been said ABOUT Hughes, but not until much later in his career.
In any case Hughes did not belong to EVERY party. When he was asked why he had never joined the Country Party, he said, “Dear boy, I had to draw the line somewhere.” My other favourite Hughes quote is: “If I had a constitution, I’d have been dead years ago.”
Dean Trotsky-Meighell: good riddance. He should have stuck to his decision to defect to the Greens, who are more than welcome to him.
PS Scots really do say “Och aye” and “the noo”, as in “I’ll get it for ye the noo.” But I haven’t heard anyone in Yorkshire say “Ee bah goom” yet.
re government advertising blitz. . . longest suicide note in history?. . . stay tuned!
Peter O’ Toole I think it was once said “Australia is a lot like Ireland, only better run”.
Ireland now has a higher standard of living , free education and a booming resource-free economy, an irony for the descendants of post-war migrants who came here for a better life for their children I would have thought.
Anyway there are strong parallels in Irish and Australian politics. Recently the avuncular Bertie Ahern of the conservative “Soldiers of Destiny” party suffered losses of seats but still handily beat their main rival the conservative “Tribe of the Irish” party.
Award winning and really very funny Irish blogger, Twenty Major, laments the return of the Ahern government with comments that would find resonance at both Federal and State levels in this post (warning contains VERY strong language which may offend) so I have broken the link – http://twentymajor.net/2007/05/26/dont-complain-you-stupid-stupid-c***s/ ) – so if you are grown up enough replace the asterisks with the appropriate letters,
Chris Curtis, a perceptive comment about (inadequate and/or non-existent) teaching of history and the industrial revolution in particular, but I am not sure one of the torch bearers of the present union movement in this country (teacher unions) would agree with that. The sentiment may also apply also to the “teaching” of English literature (eg. Dickens, Browning et al.)
““1907 Hughes said this of Fisher: “What a career his has been! In his hands, at various times, have rested the banners of every party in the country. He has proclaimed them all, he has held them all, he has betrayed them allâ€.â€
This cannot be correct. Fisher only ever belonged to one party (Labor), and in 1907 Hughes had also only belonged to Labor.”
My bad – my brain said Deakin and my hands said Fisher. And for good measure I got the year wrong :-/
Hughes said it about *Deakin* after the fall of the first Fisher government in 1909 due to the Fusion.
Peter Tucker Said:
The 24th of March 2011 is a Thursday.
26/3/2011 is the correct date IMHO.
So are the government really going to include nuclear power as part of their climate change ads?
Without debating the merits or otherwise of nuclear, what planet are they on if they think spruiking nuclear is going to win back any of the support that has drifted to Labor?
David Charles,
As a former English teacher who did teach Dickens, and even Shakespeare, not to mention Buffy, rather than Big Brother, which is apparently what they teach in the parallel universe of schools that The Australian writes about, I have some agreement with you. From a political point of view, I find it interesting that the Kevin Rudd Labor Party has distanced itself from the trendy left on education with such things as the plain English national curriculum, as indeed has the Bracks Labor Government to a lesser extent with such things as the dumping of SOSE and the rigorous reporting system. I am sure that if Kevin Rudd had been premier of Victoria in the late ‘80s and early ‘90s we would never have had the low-standard VCE.
The “Left” decided it was not necessary to teach traditional disciplines such as history and ended up creating a generation who knew nothing about the industrial revolution and the rise of the union movement and which went on to become indifferent or even hostile to unions. Another own goal! The “Left” decided to replace clear thinking with presentation of an issue – i.e., move from the substance of argument to the surface features – and ended up creating a generation that has trouble thinking logically. Another own goal!
George should count the number of bureaucrats now compared to the number in 1996. He might get a surprise.
As a Federal bureaucrat myself I can reveal that this Government has got very lazy in terms of scrutinising the spending of Government departments. Someone from the Department of Finance said to me “our big problem is agencies continually underspending their budgets.”
There are two main reasons for this IMHO.
1 The Government has been in for a long time – they all get lazy with the bureaucracy eventually.
2 They’re swimming in money. Public Service financial rectitude just ain’t that important at the moment.
Ed St John,
Why do people have to nail their colours to the mast now? I would say now that Labor are favourites, but that doesn’t mean that I’m certain that they will win an election to be held as long as six months away.
It’s like asking who will win the footy at the start of the year. I have an opinion at the start of the season but I reserve the right to change it as things develop through the season.
Chris Curtis, thanks for your excellent post. As I read it, it reinforced my conviction that it is important to speak out against extremism on either side of the political spectrum. It causes me to repeat the very unoriginal thought that the extreme Right and the extreme Left are closer to each other than either of them are to the middle ground of politics. English and History are learning disciplines which, if presented to students on the “clear thinking” approach, do impart knowledge, and (I daresay) a sense of balance, on an important range of public issues (such as the right to free association) underpinning a liberal democracy.
Matt D,
The point about asking people to declare their colours now is that a lot of posters to this site have all but declared a Rudd landslide but want to preserve a little wiggle room.
The second point is that many people have assumed that their pet hates, Children overboard etc are factors which are finally showing up in the opinion polls.
Its interesting that if people were so absolute in their convictions that they would be so shy in coming forward. eg. Yasmine Anandyr aka Madame Mao step forward ! or Adam who marked his excitement point as being Rudd being in front at the end of May.
My view is if the Rodent goes down its going to be 1. The its time factor and 2. IR. I still believe IR is going to work against the ALP because it hasnt been seen to modernise as it was aptly put on this site – its Midway Labor as compared to New Labor but I will obviously eat my words if the Rodent goes down.
On that Midway Labor theme every victorious opposition has its housecleaning break with the past moment. Those old enough to remember will recall the painful debates in the early 80’s in the ALP, Sister Souljah and Clinton, Blair and Clause 4 etc. What’s been the ALP’s break with the past? “Sacking” Mighell give me a break. The ingenious thing about Rudd is that he seems to know this but is trying to manufacture a synthetic turning point “moment”.
Chris, I have no doubt that the people who introduced the changes you refer to thought of themselves as “the left”. And I do think some of the changes made when the VCE was brought in were good and upheld Left values. However, others were simply stupid from any political position (the idea that maths should be marked in a manner designed to suit humanities is not left or right wing, its just plain dumb). Others still seem to me to undermine Left goals in exactly the way you state. Most other left-wing people I know agree. All in all it seems to me this is a case of a tiny group implementing changes and the left as a whole getting the blame.
In a desperate attempt to bring this post back on topic, let me say that it seems to me that a similar situation may be to blame for Howard’s current poll woes. A small group of people have found themselves in such an echo chamber that they are able to bring in changes that are not only in direct contravention of political sense, but also the values they started off espousing.
Edward says – “I still believe IR is going to work against the ALP because it hasnt been seen to modernise as it was aptly put on this site – its Midway Labor as compared to New Labor but I will obviously eat my words if the Rodent goes down.” Edward IMHO I think you need to go out and buy a bottle of tomato sauce. Words aren’t all that tasty.
I only say that because I believe the scare campaign Labor will run with on IR will out scare what ever the Libs produce on IR. My proof? Try what has happened already.
scare campaigns always peter out, ideas matter.
I remember CGT and GST scare campaigns happening but both these taxes ultimately came in.
Come on ESJ – the GST campaign worked in 1993, and had the Howard Government been a term older would have worked in 1998 – and nearly did anyway. The great interest rates scandal in 2004 was a scare campaign of the highest order – and it worked (though it wouldn’t get any traction this time around).
Some scare campaigns don’t work at all.
The 2004 Labor “Vote Howard Get Costello” scare campaign went down in a screaming heap.
Edward, the effectiveness of the IR scare campaign the unions have run has being acknowledged by the government, with their recent actions and comments by Hockey, as the reason their policy is poison for them. They are scared to mention the name Workchoices and have backflipped with their so called “fairness test”. That campaign has been in progress for over a year now and there is no doubt in my mind that has resulted in IR being a major player next election.
The Speaker is correct some scare campaigns don’t work at all and I believe the anti union campaign will be one of those.
Chris Curtis Says:
May 31st, 2007 at 12:39 am
Blackburnpseph,
I have said before that the Liberals cannot defeat Kevin Rudd, but the “Left†can. Dean Mighell is an example.
Chris its this same left that has put the ALP where it is in the polls. Like i have posted before the wishy washy right unions are generally absent at any community rallies leaving it up to us to organize, fund and attend. Someone else in history used one wing to rid the other then turned on that wing as well. The left are being used by the ALP right and will suffer at their hands. The good thing is the left have started to realize this. Expect a large number of industrial disputes under Rudd. Oh if he doesn’t outlaw them and us first.
The only rationale bet I could make is against my own preference, ie place money on a Coalition win, as consolation against my disappointment if it happens.
If Rudd wins, writing off a few hundred will seem like small change on the day.
Just a quick comment on “Kirnerism” ie that strain of thought that nobbled the Victorian education system.
I would add this is a huge gap between NSW and Victoria – the former being our Chicago Democrats. You couldn’t imagine Wran doing it, or Unsworth, and Carr made speaking out against it his hobbyhorse. I doubt Iemma puts more than 2 braincells into gear at any time, so he would probably repeat what Carr said.
In Victoria, the land of social workers, kindergarten teachers and the like, the left get a free kick at social issues as long as the right get to control the economic levers. If anything, I wonder if NSW is more economically left and socially right, in Vic it is the other way round.
And basket weaving and social working won’t buy a house in Glebe or Newtown.
Simon Howson.. in regards to that rag.. which is trying hard to make the polls closer with rubbish.. and front pages full of anti Labor rhetoric todays’ takes the cake.. full of anti Labor headlines.. How can these journalists be credible or in fact employed as journalists.. another Murdoch rag with an editor who does not believe in climate change..
Mr Howson my advice don’t read the paper or buy it.. why pay for the pay packets of unresearched theorists told to write articles to change the political landscape..
I feel so sorry for Queensland and South Australia who only have one paper and its a Murdoch rag.. full of half truths.
mark, I know how frustrating those rags can be but take a look at the polls and smile. They are doing bugger all to ruining Rudd’s chances.
And the biggest swings to Labor look set to come in SA and QLD. The two states that have only Murdoch rags 🙂
Thank goodness for the SYDNEY MORNING HERALD and THE AGE.
Just on The Speakers’ point about “Vote Howard, Get Costello”.
A Liberal Party friend of mine told me that in 2004 this was working so well for the Libs, rather than Labor, that the local campaign he was working on printed some identical posters of their own and put them up all over the electorate. Apparently the ALP campaign were completely befuddled as to where they were coming from, but never dreamed that it was the Libs.
I would love to see a “declaration day”, as per the ESJ suggestion. If I may say so, I’m one of the few non-Laborites that posts on here on a semi-regular basis and I think the only one that has been predicting an ALP victory since the beginning of the year. No government that has been flat-lining in the opinion polls as badly and for as long as the Howard Government has ever come back, at least in Australia. As a US politics junkie, this election reminds me a lot of the 1992 Clinton-Bush match-up, sans the Perot factor.
I’ll save my prediction for “declaration day”, and I hope there is one! In the meantime, could the next 6 months be the last we ever see of the Nationals on the government benches in Canberra? If the final outcome is anything like what the polls are predicting, surely the answer will be yes
Chris from Edgecliff: I’m not a laborite, but there are also plenty of greens supporters here who would describe themselves similarly.
Yes, American ‘Primary’ season is very exciting. I often pick a presidential candidate from each party and support them like a sporting team. Since the primaries come every few days it has a real “football season” feel with points allocated and regular matches building up to final victory.
I’m thinking John Edwards from the Democrats, and Rudy Giuliani from the Republicans this year might be my two ‘football teams’ of choice.
There are two different primary types, “First term president” – their own party doesn’t run anyone decent against them – only half the fun. But “Retiring president” – ahh both parties field their best and brightest – a no holds barred deathmatch times two.
THe courier mail is biased, but in favour of Labor, big time. it spins everything Rudds way, rips into flegg and only uses photographs where newman is pulling a funny face.
they also have jim soorley on the payroll, for some unknown reason.
Courier mail= pro labor
for those not from Queensland
The Speaker I’m inclined to Hilary (obvious I guess) and Fred Thompson (sadly surely an actor has a great shot not just at the republican crown but the whole shooting match)
Kevin Reynolds attacks Kevin Rudd for being a bible basher, who doesn’t understand working people.
What better way for Kev to distinguish himself from those bullyboy union thugs?
I like to try and pick the teams that are going to come out of the primaries, my bet at the moment is Mcain/Thompson and I think that, judging on the mood of the democrats, they’ll go for Clinton/Obama.
“The 2004 Labor “Vote Howard Get Costello†scare campaign went down in a screaming heap.”
Couldn’t agree more. But it was a half-arsed attempt at best, a rerun of a piddling Beazley line in 2001. Didn’t make any sense then for that matter. I mean, the whole idea at least since Burke was that you give the voters some idea what you stand for.
Sadly though, negative campaigns can work. The hidden message of the Border Protection push in 2001 was, “Labor’s really a lot softer on reffos than we are”. And it worked a treat.
The Presidential race isnt serious yet, once Gore and Gingrich announce then well see what the parties are thinking
my tip for the republicans and then overall winner Guilliani/Gingrich Pres/Vp duo
Gonna stick my neck out and say Gore/ Obama for the Dems, Guiliani/ Thompson for the GOP, with the Dems getting home with a late count into the night, relying on how the western states vote, a la the West Wing.
I’m still holding out hope that Gore will run, but it’s fading. 🙁
Australian federal outcome, 20 seats extra to labour giving them a majority of 4
9 queensland, 4 NSW, 2 victoria, 2 tasmania, 2 SA, 1 NT.
Sorry didn’t factor in ACT.
JWH will not lose his seat nor will Costello. Turbull may not be so lucky although he is a bigf enough personality to keep it.
The US, if al Gore runs he will win both the nomination and the election. clinton has everyone polarised you either love or hate her. Anyone other than gore and guilliani will be a real threat.
How about this for a bold prediction. I think it’s going to be Obama (P) / Richardson (VP) vs Guiliani (P) / Elizabeth Dole (VP) ?
Try Yvette D’Ath, Mia Hardshin and Kate Lundy for easy on the eye in the labor ranks.
Any tallent in the libs?
Gore’s running there is no doubt.
A new book
A Time cover story
A developing army of followers
his pieces are in place
In 2004 I was as unimpressed by the ‘Costello’ banners as everyone else; the only places I used them at our booth were on the least visible bits of the fence after we’d run out of anything else to put up.
I am loving this. One by one the unions are leaving the ALP. If the ALP doesnt win this election, when Rudd has removed all the Unions they never will win
Gore has been hinting recently he might run again, or at least he hasn’t completely closed the door.
The Republicans are so unpopular right now, the Democrats ought to be able to easily win in 2008, but Hillary is the last person I’d choose as candidate.
Obama, Gore, John Edwards – better choices.
Bill, the unions should leave the ALP and start a new party. They will not get much from the current Labor, Opps (Liberal Party) if they win, mind you the unions don’t do much these days anyway.. And Evan that Democrat ticket is spot on but they do have another candidate who is equally interesting, as he was the only one who voted against the Iraq war- Dennis Kneutsh- not sure how it is spelt..
Michael Costello debated Gerard Henderson on “Lateline” tonight. I can’t believe an intelligent man like Henderson would put forward the following argument while discussing the recent polls. He thought the most significant poll of the lot was the Galaxy poll conducted in the seat of Bennelong. This showed a 6 percent swing away from the government. By extrapolating this poll to the rest of Australia, if Howard can reduce this swing by about three percent, so the argument goes, he will have a good show of winning the election.
Is it just me or is this argument pure BS?
Costello quickly took him to task on that one. Indeed to take heart in just one poll, in just one seat is either delusional or desperate, or both.
Also, does anyone have any clue who are the 2 or 3 Ministers that Michael Costello raised were possibly thinking of tapping Howard on shoulder if the polls don’t improve within the next couple of months?
I don’t think those Ministers have been named.
as far as I know, they haven’t either. But just wondering if amyone knew who they might be? Do we have any Liberal insiders ?