Via Lateline (which will not be broadcast for another two hours in the Poll Bludger’s remote western outpost), Blair in comments informs us that Newspoll has jumped on the 61-39 bandwagon set in train by ACNielsen and Morgan. An appropriate note on which to open another exciting new instalment of Idle Speculation.
Did you just make up the figure of 5% ? 5% of Australia’s population is 1 million.
Actually it doesn’t matter. Your last comment just shows you’re not actual serious and economics and politics.
That should be: about economics, politics and environmentalism.
Jasmine,
My recollection of Ann Harding’s work on the progressivity of the Australian tax system is that the top 40% pay a lot more into the system than they take out of it, while the bottom 60% pay less than they get; the big winners are the second quintile.
That is just my recollection.
Adam, Sacha – don’t tease the watermelons. 😉
While the polls look promising for Labor, I think we’ll be in something of a holding pattern until the Budget, which (I think) is another 5-6 weeks away. I’d imagine it’d suit Rudd and the ALP for the governmenht to spend this time slinging mud. It hasn’t done them any good so far, and I think these things show a diminishing return as more and more punters tune out. Why the government is not going in harder on the economic debate is beyond me – it’s the only advantage they have left now. Instead it looks as though (due to them being distracted by the politics of character, and losing that fight badly) the government will be giving the ALP a free ride through the conference next month. Time is running out for Howard to turn things around.
Nah Hugo,
A lot of people thought that way about the NSW State Government in August/September of last year and look whats going to happen on Saturday.
Yes, but Rudd is not Debnam
Nice try Edward, but with one important difference – a credible opposition. If the State Libs were in half as good a shape as Federal Labor, there’d be a change of government in Macquarie Street this weekend.
Having said that, you’re right to remind us on the hopeful left that no result is guaranteed. Howard has got out of these positions before, but he’s not getting any younger. Leaders only get so many “get out of jail free” cards (aka Mark Latham, Simon Crean).
Just wrote answers to all of you but lost the lot. seems to happen once and awhile on here. Sasha i meant 1 percent not 5 my mistake. Hugo i see the ruling class / bourgeosie as the same and the petty bourgeosie as the promoters of the above. Teachers police etc are actually workers. Thank Leopold for Adam, Sacha – don’t tease the watermelons. 😉 :/ haha.
Hugo,
Sacre Bleu, “half as good a shape as Federal Labor”, are you for real? Have you had a good look at the Federal Labor Party? without disparaging anyone by referring to specific pieces of deadwood, tell me how the Federal party compares to Hayden/Hawke’s front bench in 1983 – the comparison is absolutely woeful.
Is there anyone in the Federal Party who isnt a union hack/ state secretary hack of some form?
Sorry should have added hereditary peer too!
I can’t post anything, what’s going on?
anti watermelon feeling prob Adam
ok now this post is theory and on the off-topic thingy – and Rudd has already avoided walking this trap but here goes …
I understand the private school thingy from their perspective … we would have got a return on tax in a public school, we have saved the public system all this money, give us our fair share. Very neat very sexy. Whether yelled from the window of a nice Merc or older model falcon it is internally consistent.
The counter-argument (Rudd and the labor party is too smart to try and make) has the following limbs:
1. Taxes aren’t a fee for service and whether or not you use services is not relevant to the tax burden your rightly bear for freedom and citizenship of our fine country. The right wing has been very very effective at whittling away at this kind of thinking and replacing it with user pays.
2. There is an obligation on the State to provide everyone an opportunity of a good education and this must be funded.
3. If you consider yourself above public education, or wish to have your children schooled in private facilities – great go for it; but why should the State pay for your choice.
I have a lot of sympathy for this kind of argument as poorly as I’ve expressed it. But politically it has been defeated, Howard has built in the right to chose and insist on the Government paying for the choice.
Edward – are you suggesting that Federal Labor is in the same sorry state as NSW Liberal? You are more deluded than I thought! The point I was making (against your point that NSW Labor was heading for a loss 6 months ago) was that Federal Labor are clearly a credible opposition (not to you, obviously, but it appears 61% of the nation disagrees with you at present). NSW Liberals are clearly not a credible opposition, which is why they will lose in a big way on Saturday. Even if the Libs manage to hold on the Federal sphere, it is highly unlikely to be a landslide.
Your comparison to the Hawke 1983 front bench is an unfair one – no government or opposition in Australian history (including the Howard ministry) comes close to that one for talent. Federal Labor doesn’t look that bad at the moment. Sure there is some deadwood, but you seem to be supporting a government that recently had Santo Santoro as a minister, so I’m not sure teh government is in any better shape. Interesting that you couldn’t seem to find too many examples.
Frankly folks, when I visit the wonderful PollBludger site, I actually come looking for psephological insights from the world at large rather than the latest quasi marxist polemic being handed down by Chairman Bill and the Kingston politburo.
now that I’ve got that off my chest …..
Does anyone out there consider that the present state of the Howard govt and the forthcoming Debnam Disaster are actually feeding off each other and that once the NSW election is out the way and a small group of NSW libs have gone off into a dark corner, and the Iemma government goes back to doing what it does best … that the polls for the govt may actually improve.
Or
is there anyone out there who knows of a case (preferably in a Westminster system) where a leader with bad polls has been dumped 6 months or so out from an election and the new leader has actually pulled off a win? NZ 1990 and Canada 1993 but they were both disastrous for the governing party.
I will try again. WILLIAM, there seems to be glitch which intermittently prevents longer posts.
No, I still can’t post anything longer than 2 lines
The trend is clear the Ruddwagon is on a roll, the months of May – July will decide the next election, but if my reading of voterland is correct its been the ALP returning this Government rather than any love for it then Howard my slip even further for Rudd can over time start to reveal the side we see on Sunrise and match it with some policies, nothing on the fightback scale, we don’t need that but simple straight forward policy and the ALP are going to romp it in.
On my way too work I watch people reading the Herald Sun, these people live in a very safe Liberal part of town and they seem to snurl at stories on Iraq and seem generally unimpressed with the Government.
Blackburnpseph @ 6.05pm, first paragraph – nice work!! I come here to read the psephological musings of election tragics like myself. If I wanted to read all that other stuff, I would renew my Crikey account or log on to Get It Up or Get Off or whatever its called.
As for Hugo’s posting appearing immediately before Blackburnpseph, as a Tory, I don’t mind acknowledging that Rudd’s front bench is reasonably good. Furthermore, its the best the ALP has produced at least since about 1993. And they are still to add Shorten, someone in WA who I have momentarily forgotten and, who knows, maybe even Maxine. There are, of course, a couple of shockers in there, but that is always going to be a given in Australia because of factions on the ALP side and factions and the presence of the Nats on the Coalition side.
As for our side, lining up the present day front bench against the class of 1996 is, frankly, depressing
As for today’s Newspoll, I would be absolutely fascinated to see a state-by-state breakdown. It beggars belief that the 61-39 split is uniform, in which case the Coalition is actually, at this moment, almost certainly polling a lot worse than 39% 2PP in a couple of states.
I think that Maxine McKew, Gary Gray, Bill Shorten and Mark Dreyfus will all enter the frontbench immediately upon entering parliament, should they win their seats.
As for deadwood, there are a couple of out and out no-names that *should* find it very difficult to get into a Rudd Ministry. Kerry O’Brien and Alan Griffin are the obvious two. It could also be that Martin Ferguson’s time is up, and if *only* Stephen Conroy could be hidden away somewhere.
A certain state starting with Q for one
Adam, which Queensland seats would you think the ALP should be viewing as ‘winnable’ at the moment?
We are way too far from the election to call it yet. Like Chris from Edgecliff I’m hanging out to see a state by state breakdown of recent polls. Even then it is only the marginals that will decide the outcome. These latest polls show a national swing of nearly 14%. The only recent marginal seat poll had the ALP at 55% in Bennelong – a swing of around 9%. If these projected swings are cut back by 50% the Coalition could still conceivably just hang on – even with a 46-54 national vote against them. Unlikely maybe, but nonetheless possible. It all comes down to where the votes are cast.
Edward, as far as comparisons to NSW go maybe the key was that Carr got out at the right time, allowing Iemma to distance himself from previous mistakes and policies as well as giving the government a sense of renewal. Maybe if Howard had done the same thing late last year and handed over to Costello, then the Coalition may well have been shaping up much better than they appear to be at the moment.
No Hugo, the challenge was for you to name who is not a union/ political administrative hack or hereditary peer in the Labor Shadow Cabinet.
I am happy to provide an analysis – the results are illuminating.
Its not by job to defend the Libs but at least there’s some diversity there.
Howard can still pull a few rabbits out of the hat, Don’t you worry about that!
Jason, when you picture Howard, is he surrounded by the cast of “Annie”?
Just asking…
blackburnpseph Says
Frankly folks, when I visit the wonderful PollBludger site, I actually come looking for psephological insights from the world at large rather than the latest quasi marxist polemic being handed down by Chairman Bill and the Kingston politburo.
now that I’ve got that off my chest …..
Thanks for the compliment or is it a………I too come here to devour psephological insights and at this time reading through all the 2006 Vic election posts results news etc. I just seem to have my buttons pushed every so often and my reply s seem to do the same. I will try to keep on topic. And if i wasnt a candidate i would be more impartial. I enjoy everyone comments and insights immensely and stand in awe at the knowledge that many on here possess. Keep up the good work William (nice name) and everyone that contributes on here. Now that a s*** job
All Howard needs is a small terrorist attack in Australia and whammy hes back in front.
If you want to blame me for the long diversion into private school funding and quasi-Marxism, I’ve got broad shoulders.
Stewart,
The national curriculum policy runs to 21 pages. I think that is enough detail for one policy, and there will be other polices released as the year goes by.
Adam,
Most people don’t want lots of policy, but they want some! They also like to know any policies that might affect them. They do not need 1,000 pages of detail on the rip-up of WorkChoices for Employers, but they do need to know that it will be ripped up, that AWAs will be gone and that collective bargaining will be back. Basically, they want enough policy to know that their daughter won’t be told to sign an AWA that fines her $200 for not giving twelve hours notice of sick leave. They need some security, which is what Kevin Rudd has given with his private school funding announcement. (This does not have to mean another diversion.)
Leopold,
There’s enough for now.
howard ‘mishears’ question, lets slip on an irag withdrawl plan…
oh dear oh dear oh dear
santoro quits senate
now the Qld libs will enter into a huge bloody fight over Santoros replacement.
Who knows what the fallout from this fight will bring..
Nice and juicy
bill weller Says:
“All Howard needs is a small terrorist attack in Australia and whammy hes back in front.”
I dunno Bill. While Beasley was there I think many of us thought like that. I think that if it happens now a lot more people will blame Howard.
He might get a bounce, granted, but not like he got in 2001. I’d imagine that this scenario has been raised plenty amongt Labor’s leadership group and they’d be more ready for it this time. Let’s hope it doesn’t happen.
It also looks less likely that Rudd will throw away seats at the last minute like Latham did with “the handshake” and the Tasmania forest debacle. Or indeed go silly like Hewson did in the last days of the 1993 campaign. The pressure is on Howard this time alright.
Its seems the nasty infighting has yet another qld lib backbencher in trouble:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21419140-601,00.html
Qld potentially could be a disaster for the Libs!
Howard should have gone last year, and handed over the reins to Costello.
It’s personal vanity and this desire to outdo Menzies that is keeping him in the job, and Mrs Howard presumably enjoys playing Lady of the Manor at Kirribilli.
It seems that Aldred won’t be coming back after all: http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/libs-move-fast-to-stifle-aldred-comeback-attempt/2007/03/20/1174153063041.html
I suspect that there’s a certain unreality about these polls – I think people have tuned out after so much mud slinging. The polls after the budget will be interesting, although the government is rather boxed in in terms of what it can do. If the budget is too generous (in traditional pre-election budget style), they run the very real risk of an interest rate rise in, say, August, but if it is an austere budget, punters will be wondering “what’s in it for me?”. There’s an awful lot of ground for the government to make up in six months, and things like the Tampa & 11/9 only come around so often. I know my good friend EdwardStJohn will not agree with me, but the ALP is much more electable this year than it was in 2001 & 2004. I think we’re in for a noisy, but seminal, six months.
Hugo,
You are correct, I don’t agree.
Example: Important date: 1 July 2007 tax free super for a lot of self-indulgent 60+ retirees, I am sure a lot of them will be feeling chuffed to have been handed tax cuts of a minimum $75,000 on a $500,000 superannuation account.
Think many of these will be voting Labor with people like Doogie Cameron out there campaigning for the changes to be reversed?
Charlie, the interesting thing about Queensland is that for demographic reasons there are very few safe seats on either side. When Labor does badly, it loses almost everything. But when Labor does well, it can pick up a swag of seats. In 1983 Labor polled 46% of the vote and won 10 of 19 seats, gaining 5. Qld now has 29 seats, so a comparable gain would bring in 7 or 8 seats. In the current state of the polls, such gains seem quite possible. I would nominate in rough order Bonner, Moreton, Bowman, Petrie, Blair, and Herbert as likely gains, and Dickson, Leichhardt, Flynn, Hinkler, Forde and Ryan as possible gains.
Edward – I’d have thought that those retirees getting their hands on all that moolah come July would be unlikely to vote Labor anyway. It doesn’t really matter what Doug Cameron thinks (any more than it matters what Alby Shultz or Ross Lightfoot thinks), as ALP policy is to not reverse this tax cut.
I realise that you don’t like Labor, but that’s a different argument to saying that they are unelectable. The Labor front bench is not that shabby (as conceded by declared conservative Chris From Edgecliff, in an earlier post) and there’s no one there really who’s going to frighten the horses. I think your share & property portfolios will be perfectly safe under an ALP government.
I actually think Qld’s a state in which the Coalition would be doing better than in other states. For starters, Qld is natural conservative territory. Only twice since WWII have the ALP mustered a majority on the 2PP vote. The last time was in 1990 with 50.2%, hardly a resounding majority. My guess is that they are doing better than that, much better. But more than 61% right now? I strongly doubt it. For starters that would represent a swing of more than 18% (at least) since the 2004 election. I just can’t see that happening, even in a state that can be as volatile as Qld. My guess Labor is ahead by about 55/56 to 44/45. It’s in Tasmania, NSW, Vic and SA where Labor is romping it home. WA, I also doubt Labor is too far ahead there.
I’d have Herbert 3rd-most likely and Petrie in your ‘possibles’ group Adam. Aside from that your ordering on probability seems about right.
If Dr Laming is vindicated by the AFP investigation then I’d move Bowman into the second group as well.
Psephophile suggests that the Labor 2PV in Qld is currently 55%, not the 61% suggested in current polls. The Labor 2PV in 2004 in Qld was 42.9%, so if it is now 55% that is a swing of 12%, which would see Labor win Bonner, Moreton, Blair, Herbert, Flynn, Petrie, Hinkler, Dickson, Dawson and Ryan – which is more than I suggested above.
In fact a 12% swing would also see Labor win Kennedy from Katter.
Are we missing Longman?
Hugo
The Labor front bench “is not too shabby”, please justify that assertion with examples?
The StJohn family has a proud history of independence from both political parties, but just by way of example, there are 30 Labor shadow ministers, 6 are hereditary peers and 4 are former state or national secretaries, this is hardly the sign of a democratic and inclusive party.
I have not broken down the other 20 but no surprises nearly all are union hacks or people who had roles in the party machine. Unrepresentative and undemocratic.
The only defense is that “we are no worse than the Liberal party”, what a sad state of affairs for the ALP.
Yes I omitted Longman. That makes 11 gains plus Kennedy – and Labor only needs 16 nationwide to win the election.
Well done Edward for noticing that the Labor Party is a labour party, and draws most of its cadre from the ranks of the labour movement. Just as the Liberals draw theirs from the ranks of real estate agents and suburban solicitors, and the Nationals draw theirs from the ranks of elderly farmers. This has always been the case and has never made any difference to the quality of front benches on either side.
As for jibes about hereditary peers, what an insult to Alexander Downer, a third-generation Liberal parliamentarian. Phil Ruddock is also the son of a Liberal MP.
Ah Adam,
Yes of course its Ok if the Liberals do it? Maybe our democracy is very weak.
As for your trite line about “being a Labour Party” well on my count 7 of the remaining 20 are union officials who have never actually soiled there hands working on award wages. If you were objective you might say “union bureacrat party”
Of the other 13, one is a former assistant secretary and the other 12 are all staffers of some sort. Even you Adam have to concede this is a pretty inbred bunch.
On current polls it seems Labor would pick up a massive swag of Qld seats, definitely. But, I don’t think Labor will get 55% of the vote in Qld. In fact, I think they should be grateful if they end up cracking 50%. I say that only because history hasn’t been kind to Labor in Qld.