GhostWhoVotes brings us the latest quarterly state Newspoll from Queensland, and it finds Anna Bligh’s government continuing to give Kristina Keneally’s a run for its money in the unpopularity stakes. From an already dismal starting point, Labor’s primary vote has slumped a further three points to a new low of 26 per cent, with the Liberal National Party up one to 45 per cent, the Greens down one to 13 per cent and others up three to 16 per cent. For what it’s worth under optional preferential voting, the LNP’s two-party preferred lead has opened from 57-43 to 59-41. Anna Bligh’s personal ratings, which already looked terminal to begin with, have also worsened: her approval is down two points to 24 per cent and her disapproval up two to 67 per cent. John-Paul Langbroek gets more good news from his personal ratings: he is now on 38 per cent for both approval and disapproval, up six and down six respectively, and his lead as preferred premier has widened from 42-34 to 41-31.
Category: Queensland Politics
Galaxy: 60-40 to LNP in Queensland
Today’s Courier-Mail brings a gruesome poll result for Anna Bligh, showing her 12-year-old administration giving the 15-year-old one south of the border a run for its money in the unpopularity stakes. The Galaxy survey of 800 respondents has Labor’s vote at just 28 per cent against 48 per cent for the Liberal National Party, with 4 per cent marching from the former to the latter since the last such poll five months ago. The Greens are steady on 16 per cent. Anna Bligh has recorded a lethal disapproval rating of 70 per cent with only 25 per cent approval, and now trails John-Paul Langbroek as preferred premier 49 per cent to 35 per cent. Langbroek has moved to a positive net approval rating with 41 per cent approval and 39 per cent disapproval. The LNP’s two-party lead is 60-40, which if anything would be flattering for Labor in light of the state’s optional preferential voting system. The margin of error on the poll is around 3.5 per cent. Hat tip, as always, to GhostWhoVotes.
Essential Research: 59-41 to LNP in Queensland
As noted in the previous post, Essential Research has adopted Newspoll’s practice of consolidating material from surveys over an extended period to produce results on state voting intention from decent samples. These figures are remarkable in showing the Queensland government in an even worse position than their beleagured counterparts in New South Wales: primary votes are identical, with the Liberal National Party on 50 per cent and Labor on 29 per cent, but the two-party gap is an even wider 59-41, probably reflecting a lower Greens vote of 9 per cent.
Other Queensland happenings:
• The Courier-Mail reported last week that Anna Bligh had asked Attorney-General Cameron Dick to “assess whether confusion over different voting systems was driving a growing number of informal votes”, by way of preparing the groundwork for a return of compulsory preferential voting. Dick need do no more than cut-and-paste Possum’s post from Thursday, which demonstrated that optional preferential voting has indeed led confused voters to “just vote one” at federal elections in the states where it operates (New South Wales and Queensland), while reducing the number of informal votes at state elections. Wayne Goss’s Labor government introduced optional preferential voting in 1992 to make life difficult for the then-unmerged Coalition parties, and it served Labor particularly well during the One Nation interruption. However, Labor now lives in terror of the growing ranks of Greens voters taking the opportunity to exhaust their votes rather than pass them on to its increasingly unpopular state government. Kristina Keneally last week offered rhetorical support for Bligh’s move, and would no doubt be delighted to do the same if the NSW state constitution did not require that any change be endorsed by a referendum.
• Local paper The Reporter says Logan councillor John Grant has joined the Liberal National Party with a view to seeking preselection in Springwood, held for Labor by Barbara Stone on a margin of 4.1 per cent.
• Marissa Calligeros of Fairfax reports Logan councillor Hajnal Ban, who was ousted as Liberal National Party candidate for Forde ahead of the federal election, is hoping to revive her political career by seeking preselection for John Mickel’s seat of Logan.
Armadale and Araluen and Walter Taylor
Time for a new thread. Politics watchers have had pretty big fish to fry recently, but as electoral minutiae are this site’s raison d’etre, here’s a review of looming events which might have escaped your notice. Feel free to discuss what you’d usually discuss in comments.
• Voters in the safe Labor WA state seat of Armadale go to the polls on Saturday to choose a successor to Alannah MacTiernan, following her unsuccessful stab at the federal seat of Canning. I’m wondering if the date might have been chosen so as not to clash with the AFL grand final, and whether events on that front might result in a very low turnout on Saturday. With the Liberals sitting the contest out and no significant minor challengers emerging, the only other point of interest is how the Labor primary vote holds up with talk building of a threat to Eric Ripper’s leadership. Labor’s candidate is Tony Buti, a law professor at the University of Western Australia. Buti heads a ballot paper filled out by Jamie van Burgel of the Christian Democratic Party, independent John D. Tucak (who had extremely limited success as an upper house candidate for Eastern Metropolitan at the 2007 state election) and Owen Davies of the Greens. More from Antony Green.
• On Saturday week, voters in the Alice Springs seat of Araluen will choose a successor to outgoing Country Liberal Party member (and former leader) Jodeen Carney, who on August 19 announced she was retiring for health reasons. A by-election in the Northern Territory offers interesting parallels with the federal situation, as the Labor government has been on a parliamentary knife edge since the 2008 election returned a result of 13 Labor, 11 Country Liberal Party and one independent. The government assumed minority status when its member for Macdonnell, Alison Anderson, quit to sit as an independent in July 2009 – prompting the existing independent, Gerry Wood of the normally conservative electorate of Nelson, to guarantee Labor on confidence and supply in the interests of “stable government” (there was also a brief period in which Arafura MP Marion Scrymgour was on the cross-benches). As a CLP seat, Araluen gives Labor the remote prospect of improving their position, although the 24.6 per cent margin leaves them with little cause for optimism (it should be noted that election results can be hugely variable in the Northern Territory, where bite-sized electorates make candidate factors crucially important). The CLP candidate is Alice Springs deputy mayor Robyn Lambley, described by Ben Langford of the Northern Territory News as a “mediator and dispute resolution expert”. Labor’s candidate is Adam Findlay, a chef with no background in politics to speak of.
• On October 23, a Brisbane City Council by-election will be held in the ward of Walter Taylor, which has been vacated by Jane Prentice, the newly elected LNP member for the federal seat of Ryan. The LNP have nominated a former policy officer for Prentice, Julian Simmonds, who seems unlikely to be troubled given the 21.0 per cent margin from the 2008 election. Labor’s candidate is Louise Foley, who according to Tony Moore of Fairfax has “worked in the Queensland public service during the Beattie Government as a ministerial advisor in local government, planning, transport, education, main roads and with the office of Premier and Cabinet”. Also in the field are Tim Dangerfield of the Greens and independent William Borbasi. Walter Taylor was one of 16 wards won by Liberal in 2008, with 10 being won by Labor. Lord mayor Campbell Newman of the LNP serves a fixed four-year term regardless of the numbers on council.
Newspoll: 57-43 to LNP in Queensland
Newspoll has published its first Queensland state poll since the March 2009 election, showing sub-optimal results for Anna Bligh’s government. The Liberal National Party has opened up a cavernous 57-43 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 44 per cent for the LNP, a woeful 29 per cent for Labor and 14 per cent for the Greens. Anna Bligh has fatal personal ratings of 26 per cent approval and 65 per cent disapproval, and trails John Paul Langbroek as preferred premier 42 per cent to 34 per cent. This is against an Opposition Leader with weak ratings of his own: 32 per cent approval and 42 per cent disapproval.
Galaxy: 55-45 to LNP in Queensland
Bit slow on the uptake with this one, but it turns out that Queensland Galaxy poll also inquired about state voting intention, and it found the Liberal National Party with a two-party lead of 55-45. The result is even grimmer for Labor on the primary vote, given that optional preferential voting will deprive it of many Greens preferences: Labor is on 32 per cent against 44 per cent for the LNP and 16 per cent for the Greens. This in fact marks an improvement for Labor on the previous such poll in February, when Labor were on 31 per cent to 48 per cent for the LNP and 13 per cent for the Greens, with two-party preferred at 59-41. Equally importantly, Anna Bligh has recorded terminal personal ratings of 25 per cent approval (down three) and 69 per cent disapproval (up five). It will come as little comfort to the government that John-Paul Langbroek is also up six points on disapproval to 44 per cent, as he leads Bligh as preferred premier 43 per cent (up one) to 36 per cent (down one). A remarkable 85 per cent expressed opposition to the government’s asset sales, against 12 per cent support.
Morgan: 54-46 to Labor
The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, conducted last week from a sample of 931, has failed to replicate the convulsion of Newspoll. Labor holds a two-party lead of 54-46, down from 54.5-45.5 last weekend and 56-44 a fortnight previous. Labor’s primary vote has remained stable through the period: from 43 per cent to 44 per cent to 43.5 per cent, while the Coalition have gone from 37.5 per cent to 40.5 per cent to 40 per cent. Like Newspoll, the result suggests the ETS issue has not benefited the Greens, who have gone from 12 per cent to 8 per cent to 9 per cent. However, there is no evidence of the starting rise in Newspoll’s “others” vote. While a heartening result for Labor in some respects, this is still their worst result in a Morgan two-party poll since November 2006.
It also follows yesterday’s Morgan phone poll of 555 respondents which had the parties locked on 50-50. The principal concern of the poll was to gauge opinion on the tax package: among other things, it found 43 per cent believing the package would make them better off against 25 per cent worse off, while 47 per cent thought it would be good for Australia against 34 per cent bad.
Furthermore:
• Labor sources are feeding The West Australian details of serious concerns about the party’s federal prospects in Western Australia in the wake of the mining tax policy announcement. On Wednesday, The West’s Andrew Probyn cited talk of “disastrous” internal polling in the seat of Hasluck, held by Sharryn Jackson on a post-redistribution margin of 1.0 per cent, which could only have been conducted before the announcement was made. Today the paper goes so far as to report “party strategists” believe Stephen Smith and Gary Gray might be imperilled in Perth and Brand, respectively said to be home to “up to 15,000 mostly city-based mining sector workers” and “up to 20,000 fly-in fly-out mining workers” (which I have to say sounds a bit much). The Liberal-held marginal of Swan, which the redistribution has nudged over to the other side of the pendulum, is “expected to remain in the hands of hard-working Liberal Steve Irons”. It can presumably be inferred that Alannah MacTiernan is also unlikely to have much luck in Canning. The report further states the tax “may also see the Liberal Party hold a third Senate spot … at the expense of the Greens”. Confusingly, this appears to suggest the two scenarios on the table are three Labor/three Liberal and three Labor/two Liberal/one Greens, both rosier for Labor than the three Liberal/two Labor/one Greens result that has become the WA norm.
• The Illawarra Mercury has published a poll of voters in safe Labor Throsby and Cunningham. Thanks to DaveM in comments, we learn this has Labor’s primary vote at 49 per cent (down 10 per cent on 2007), the Liberals on 29 per cent (up 4 per cent), the Greens on 12 per cent (steady) and “others” on 11 per cent (up 7 per cent). The sample was a threadbare 304, which gives a margin of error of about 5.5 per cent. Respondents were also asked about the federal government health takeover, which had 72 per cent support; and priorities for the budget, with 30 per cent nominating income assistance for pensioners and the unemployed, 26 per cent avoiding debt, 22 per cent cutting taxes to stimulate the ecnomy, 11 per cent assisting business to stimulate the economy and 9 per cent increasing spending to stimulate the economy.
• Former South Sydney and state-of-origin rugby league player David Boyle has been installed as Labor candidate for Gilmore by the party’s national executive. Nicole Hasham of the Illawarra Mercury reports this went against the express wishes of the party’s Gilmore federal electorate council, which passed a unanimous motion calling for the non-local Boyle to withdraw – presumably out of pique that they were not being allowed a rank-and-file ballot. Two other candidates who hoped to contest such a ballot were Neil Reilly, who ran in 2007, and Glen Sims, a Culburra real estate agent.
• James Massola of the Canberra Times reports David Gazard, acting director of the ACT Liberals, is seeking preselection for Eden-Monaro. It also reported that ACT Liberals are concerned that in pursuing this ambition he is neglecting the job of finalising federal candidates on his own bailiwick. The preselection process for Canberra and Fraser is said to have been “brought to a halt last year by party strategists including president Winifred Rosser and Tio Faulkner, an adviser to ACT opposition leader Zed Seselja, amid concerns about the lack of a stand-out candidate”.
• Jennifer Bennett of the Wentworth Courier reports Woollahra mayor Andrew Petrie has entered the bewildering field for Liberal preselection in Vaucluse, and that Sydney councillor Shayne Mallard does not propose to contest as a second-best option now the return of Malcolm Turnbull has thwarted his hopes for Wentworth.
• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the Turnbull comeback has Labor aspirants for Wentworth thinking again. One such is said to be Robin Margo, senior counsel and NSW Jewish Board of Deputies president, who was first touted a week ago. Labor’s preselection for the seat will be held on June 5.
• Labor’s Karen Overington has announced she will not seek another term in Ballarat West
at the Victorian state election in November, citing the death of her husband last October and health problems of her own. This could make life difficult for Labor in a seat it holds by a margin of 6.6 per cent. Kim Stephens of the Ballarat Courier reports the first preselection nominee to come forward is Sharon Knight, manager of Lifeline Ballarat and family counselling services at Uniting Care Ballarat, and a former electorate officer to federal Ballarat MP Catherine King. Andrew Eales of the Courier also reports Ballarat councillor Cheryl Bromfield would “consider” running. “Ballarat businessman” Craig Coltman has been endorsed as Liberal candidate.
• The Diamond Valley Leader reports the Victorian Liberals’ central committee has installed Andrew Hart as candidate for the state seat of Eltham. The preselection process was delayed after the presumed front-runner, Nillumbik mayor Bo Bendtsen, withdrew from both the race and his position on council earlier in the year. The Leader reports two other aspirants, Simon Marston and Maxwell Gratton, withdrew shortly before the rescheduled preselection date, in the former case because the party had told him that at 62 he was too old.
• Queensland’s opposition has suffered a serious setback with two members quitting from the Liberal National Party: Burnett MP Rob Messenger, best remembered for his pursuit of the Beattie government over the “Doctor Death” scandal at Bundaberg Hospital, and Beaudesert MP Aidan McLindon, who entered parliament at the age of 29 at the 2009 election and launched a quixotic challenge against Lawrence Springborg’s position as deputy leader in February. The pair’s publicly stated grievances, it has to be said seem rather vague. AAP reports both supported John-Paul Langbroek for the leadership, and that their loss might weaken his position. Langbroek however professes himself glad to see the back of them, complaining they were “more concerned with their personal agenda than that of our political party and the direction I and the leadership team are taking the party”.
• Another new addition to the ranks of Australia’s independent parliamentarians is Fremantle MP Adele Carles, whose decision to part company with the Greens on Thursday deprived the party of its only mainland lower house MP.
• ABC New England North West identifies three candidates who will seek preselection under the NSW Nationals open primary experiment for the state seat of Tamworth, held by independent Peter Draper. They include local mayor James Treloar, who ran unsuccessfully as an independent in 2001 when the seat was vacated by Tony Windsor’s entry to federal politics in New England; Russell Webb, a Tamworth councillor; and Mark Rodda, a departmental officer with the Land and Property Management Authority.
• DaveM in comments tells us the Illawarra Mercury reports plans by the Nationals to run a candidate in Throsby, for what reason I cannot imagine. The paper also reports “business consultant” Michelle Blicavs has been the Liberals’ only nominee for the state seat of Wollongong, held safely for Labor by high-profile Noreen Hay.
• Note the the looming by-election for the NSW state seat of Penrith, expected to be held in six weeks, is the subject of its own post.
Newspoll: 52-48
After delaying feeding the chooks for a few hours, The Australian has unloaded its full Newspoll results. Labor’s two-party lead is steady on 52-48, while the Prime Minister’s personal ratings are 48 per cent satisfied and 41 per cent dissatisfied – his worst results yet on both measures. His previous nadir was two surveys ago, when he scored 50 per cent and 40 per cent: in between the figures were 51 per cent and 40 per cent. Labor is down a point on the primary vote to 39 per cent while the Coalition is steady on 41 per cent, with the Greens up two to 11 per cent. Tony Abbott’s approval rating is down a point to 47 per cent while disapproval is steady on 38 per cent, which means his net rating has edged ahead of Rudd’s. Rudd nonetheless holds a steady 55-30 lead as preferred prime minister.
Better news for Labor from Essential Research: Labor’s lead is up from 54-46 to 56-44, which as Possum notes is their best result this year. Also featured are questions on parental leave (Labor’s scheme is much preferred, which would disappoint Tony Abbott); a question on “attributes of the Labor Party”, which finds them going backwards across the board since July; and the same question for the Liberals, which shows mixed trends. Labor nonetheless remains much better favoured overall. There are also questions on attitudes towards and usage of the media, with the ABC brand maintaining its lustre and “internet blogs” remaining very much the media’s ugly kid brother.
Finally, Possum has some fascinating leaked polling on voting intention across five Queensland state seats, which was commissioned by six unions from UMR Research. It confirms the trend of other polling in finding a disastrous plunge in support for Labor, and finds the unheralded post-election announcement of government asset sales has done most of the damage.