Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Coalition phone poll, 56-44 face-to-face

Roy Morgan has released two sets of poll results, one from its regular weekend face-to-face polling with 856 respondents, the other conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from only 525 respondents, but using far more reliable phone polling methodology. Bearing in mind that the latter has a margin of error approaching 4.5 per cent, it’s the best result Labor has had in a phone poll since May: their primary vote is at 34 per cent with the Coalition on 45 per cent and the Greens on 12.5 per cent. Applying Morgan’s headline two-party figure derived by asking minor party and independent voters how they would direct their preferences, the Coalition holds a modest lead of 51.5-48.5: however, the more reliable method of allocating preferences as per the result of the previous election has it at 52.5-47.5.

The phone poll was also used to gauge opinion on the Qantas dispute and Australian involvement in Afghanistan. The former is the first polling to emerge on this issue since the events of last weekend, and it finds respondents more inclined to blame management (56 per cent) than unions (42 per cent) for the shutdown, with 61 per cent disapproving of the decision to do so against 35 per cent who approve. However, 64 per cent are willing to sign on to the idea that “the federal government should have acted sooner”, whatever the ambiguities involved with such an assertion, an idea opposed by 32 per cent. The figures on Afghanistan show a remarkable reversal since Morgan last asked the question in early May, support for withdrawal going from 40 per cent 72 per cent with opposition down from 54 per cent to 21 per cent. However, the earlier result was at odds with the findings of an Essential Research poll conducted at the same time which had 56 per cent supporting withdrawal. Essential Research has had support for withdrawal progressing from 47 per cent last October to 56 per cent in May to 64 per cent in late August.

The results of the face-to-face poll have Labor on 34 per cent (down one on the previous week), the Coalition on 46.5 per cent (down three) and the Greens recording their highest rating in nearly a year with 13.5 per cent (up three). The two-party results present the usual confused picture: on respondent-allocated preferences the Coalition leads 56-44 (56.5-43.5 in the previous week), with minor party and independent preferences splitting about 50-50 – typical of recent Morgan face-to-face polling, but quite unlike any election result of recent history. The Coalition’s lead on the previous election’s preferences are a much more modest 53-47, compared with 54.5-45.5 last time.

UPDATE: The latest weekly Essential Research poll has Labor up a point to 35 per cent, the Coalition down one to 46 per cent and the Greens down one to 9 per cent. Two-party preferred has also edged a point in Labor’s favour, from 55-45 to 54-46. This is Labor’s best result on two-party since June 14, and on the primary vote since May 16. It exactly replicates Morgan in finding 35 per cent approving of Qantas’s shutdown, but disapproval is 53 per cent rather than 61 per cent. A question on who is to blame substitutes “workers” for ”unions” and includes a “both equally” option: the results are 41 per cent management, 20 per cent workers and 31 per cent both. Respondents were also asked whether they approved or disapproved of various parties’ handling of the matter, with pretty much equally bad results for the government, opposition, management, workers (although here the “strongly disapprove” rating was relatively low), Alan Joyce and “union leaders”. Julia Gillard and the government recorded 30 per cent approval and 59 per cent disapproval, against 27 per cent and 45 per cent for Tony Abbott and the opposition. The one party that emerged favourably was Fair Work Australia, with 55 per cent and 21 per cent. There are also questions on media usage which point to an increasing use of the internet as a news source, but not to the extent that respondents would be willing to pay for the content (9 per cent say likely, 88 per cent unlikely).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,846 comments on “Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Coalition phone poll, 56-44 face-to-face”

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  6. Risbane 2788
    ______________
    I didn’t say no party should have a woman leader…I did say they are almost certain to lose an election if given the chance !
    .if you want to dream on do so…but expect a nasty shock along the way
    if some Male Labor leader were chosen I think their polling would improve markedly

    The polls show men are massivly anti-Gillard !..Why ?
    I didn’t make that up !
    Try and be objective rather the abuse the messenger
    Sadly some on this site can’t do that, but facts are difficult things

  8. The other problem for the future of the Liberals is that the likes of Hockey, Hunt & Bilson have trashed their moderate credentials by following Phoney to the loony far right.

  10. [and according to gussie

    RU is for girls

    and

    RL is for violent peeps]

    Sorta

    but ahem girlies isnt right for rugby, more like controlled aggression as opposed to leagues meatheads

    girlies belongs to aerial ping pong

  11. Take Jessica Rudd at her word – her father is genuinely happy being Foreign Minister.
    Vogon Poet: This Newspoll solidifes Julia’s leadership, but yes, you’re correct that Labor needs to sort out a few areas, like boat people.

  13. kezza2 – Gus didn’t say rugby was for girls. He is speaking in code.

    You don’t have to follow rugby if you don’t want to.

    For me it is a game that allows all sizes shapes and strengths to come together as a team using strategy, courage, speed skill and raw power to win – they are warriors. And at school boy level it is like rubbling with rules!

  16. [.if you want to dream on do so…but expect a nasty shock along the way
    if some Male Labor leader were chosen I think their polling would improve markedly

    The polls show men are massivly anti-Gillard !..Why ?
    I didn’t make that up !]

    Bollocks. And even if it was true, it’d just confirm there’s still a lot of sexism in Australia.

  17. deblonay:

    Your anti-women comment is consistent with my recollection of your anti muslim comments from before last year’s election when Husic was the then ALP candidate.

    As I said, I’ve asked you twice before and you’ve refused to answer. The record speaks for itself.

  31. From The Australian

    LABOR’S portrayal of Tony Abbott as too negative appears to have hit home, with the latest Newspoll finding voter dissatisfaction with the Opposition Leader’s performance at a record high of 57 per cent.

    And Julia Gillard appears to be staging a political comeback, winning a three-percentage-point increase in Labor’s primary vote in the past fortnight, and stretching her gains to six percentage points in the past seven weeks.

    Rest is behind the paywall.

  35. [voter dissatisfaction with the Opposition Leader’s performance at a record high of 57 per cent]

    Record high – he’s toast

  36. Vogon Poet: I’m in Bradfield, got redistributed into there from Berowra before the last election. Swapped one safe Liberal seat for another LOL

  38. Hello again briefly. Excellent news on the Newspoll, confirming the trend to Labor. Looks like there is something to thank Alan Joyce for after all.

    With the carbon tax to be passed this week Labor’s polls will get better. Plus in future polls will increase further once the carbon tax compensation kicks in. If Gillard keeps focusing on delivering policy, the polls will take care of themselves.

  39. Risbane
    still can face the facts

    “Bollocks. And even if it was true…you said” SO IT’S IS TRUE..SO JUST SILLY WORDS
    GROW UP !

  40. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GBTPGR10:IND

    The Italian 10 year bond rate exceeded 6.5% this morning in European trade. Doubtless a lot of short-selling taking place as the markets bets against Silvio (The Gaze) Berlusconi.

    Great news from Newspoll. Abbott is now on the way to becoming a joke. The ABC more or less made it official tonight when Chris Uhlmann announced things were moving in favour of the Government and Abbott-hunting season was now open.

  41. Confessions 2871
    +++++++++++++
    So still no evidence . than I see ?????
    ..but now its”my recollections” as you repeat your lying statements about a comment I am alleged to have made

    If you have read my statements about the Palestinians on this site in recent times you would know I have been most supportive of them in recent times,re Unesco.and would be the last to make anti-muslim statements here
    …or don’t you” recollections “go that far ”

    …and despite your comments I have answered…now cite my statement..give numbers and dates …or stop lying !!
    Inventing untrue statements devalues this blog.

  43. [
    deblonay

    Posted Tuesday, November 8, 2011 at 12:22 am | Permalink

    Confessions 2871
    +++++++++++++
    So still no evidence . than I see ?????
    ..but now its”my recollections” as you repeat your lying statements about a comment I am alleged to have made

    If you have read my statements about the Palestinians on this site in recent times you would know I have been most supportive of them in recent times,re Unesco.and would be the last to make anti-muslim statements here
    …or don’t you” recollections “go that far ”

    …and despite your comments I have answered…now cite my statement..give numbers and dates …or stop lying !!
    Inventing untrue statements devalues this blog.

    2842

    deblonay

    Posted Tuesday, November 8, 2011 at 1:24 am | Permalink

    Confessions

    where are you … in hiding ??
    no evidence to hand
    just lies

    ]

    Your sexist posts proves beyond any doubt that youi are as progressive as Evan is.

  44. Well,well,well,The Trend back to Labor is now happening as I said it would awhile back,unfortunately it has taken longer than I thought,mainly due to the hostility by the MSM led by the Murdoch press,such sustained attacks never before seen in Australia.Now I think that whilst the wingnutt is overseas,if he can get a QANTAS flight,if I was Julia I would be out and about in the electorates winning the hearts and minds of the voters which she seems very good at especially now that she has some clean air.Onya Prime Minister and good luck for the next 2 years,you are a legend.

  45. Just got a hold of a Studio Canal Blu-Ray copy of Scorcese’s Cape Fear.

    Terrifying… Bernard Hermann music. De Niro at his baddest. Unmitigated thriller.

    Is this Scorcese’s best movie?

    Better than Goodfellas? Casino? Taxi Driver?

    Have to say Cape Fear trumps them in my book.

    (No. 1 saving grace: NO Leonardo di Caprio).

  46. BB,
    Thanks for the interesting query!

    While “Cape Fear” is unquestionably brilliant, I don’t think it’s Scorsese’s best.

    I’ll go with 1. “Taxi Driver”, 2. “Aviator” 3. “Raging Bull”

    My lesser rating of “Cape Fear” might be due to such a strong impression left by J. Lee Thompson’s original.

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