Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Coalition phone poll, 56-44 face-to-face

Roy Morgan has released two sets of poll results, one from its regular weekend face-to-face polling with 856 respondents, the other conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from only 525 respondents, but using far more reliable phone polling methodology. Bearing in mind that the latter has a margin of error approaching 4.5 per cent, it’s the best result Labor has had in a phone poll since May: their primary vote is at 34 per cent with the Coalition on 45 per cent and the Greens on 12.5 per cent. Applying Morgan’s headline two-party figure derived by asking minor party and independent voters how they would direct their preferences, the Coalition holds a modest lead of 51.5-48.5: however, the more reliable method of allocating preferences as per the result of the previous election has it at 52.5-47.5.

The phone poll was also used to gauge opinion on the Qantas dispute and Australian involvement in Afghanistan. The former is the first polling to emerge on this issue since the events of last weekend, and it finds respondents more inclined to blame management (56 per cent) than unions (42 per cent) for the shutdown, with 61 per cent disapproving of the decision to do so against 35 per cent who approve. However, 64 per cent are willing to sign on to the idea that “the federal government should have acted sooner”, whatever the ambiguities involved with such an assertion, an idea opposed by 32 per cent. The figures on Afghanistan show a remarkable reversal since Morgan last asked the question in early May, support for withdrawal going from 40 per cent 72 per cent with opposition down from 54 per cent to 21 per cent. However, the earlier result was at odds with the findings of an Essential Research poll conducted at the same time which had 56 per cent supporting withdrawal. Essential Research has had support for withdrawal progressing from 47 per cent last October to 56 per cent in May to 64 per cent in late August.

The results of the face-to-face poll have Labor on 34 per cent (down one on the previous week), the Coalition on 46.5 per cent (down three) and the Greens recording their highest rating in nearly a year with 13.5 per cent (up three). The two-party results present the usual confused picture: on respondent-allocated preferences the Coalition leads 56-44 (56.5-43.5 in the previous week), with minor party and independent preferences splitting about 50-50 – typical of recent Morgan face-to-face polling, but quite unlike any election result of recent history. The Coalition’s lead on the previous election’s preferences are a much more modest 53-47, compared with 54.5-45.5 last time.

UPDATE: The latest weekly Essential Research poll has Labor up a point to 35 per cent, the Coalition down one to 46 per cent and the Greens down one to 9 per cent. Two-party preferred has also edged a point in Labor’s favour, from 55-45 to 54-46. This is Labor’s best result on two-party since June 14, and on the primary vote since May 16. It exactly replicates Morgan in finding 35 per cent approving of Qantas’s shutdown, but disapproval is 53 per cent rather than 61 per cent. A question on who is to blame substitutes “workers” for ”unions” and includes a “both equally” option: the results are 41 per cent management, 20 per cent workers and 31 per cent both. Respondents were also asked whether they approved or disapproved of various parties’ handling of the matter, with pretty much equally bad results for the government, opposition, management, workers (although here the “strongly disapprove” rating was relatively low), Alan Joyce and “union leaders”. Julia Gillard and the government recorded 30 per cent approval and 59 per cent disapproval, against 27 per cent and 45 per cent for Tony Abbott and the opposition. The one party that emerged favourably was Fair Work Australia, with 55 per cent and 21 per cent. There are also questions on media usage which point to an increasing use of the internet as a news source, but not to the extent that respondents would be willing to pay for the content (9 per cent say likely, 88 per cent unlikely).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,846 comments on “Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Coalition phone poll, 56-44 face-to-face”

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  1. It’s difficult to see Turnbull leading again unless the party is prepared to wear an ETS/ Carbon Tax.

    He staked a lot of capital on that.

  2. Actually deblonay, I’ve asked you twice about the muslim comments: once the other night, and again tonight.

    On both occaisions you’ve refused to answer.

  3. [

    ABCNews24ABC News 24

    Tomorrow on @BreakfastNews starting 6:00am AEDT: John Coleman on Gaza float arrest, Defence Minister Stephen Smith and @TurnbullMalcolm.

    2 minutes agoFavoriteRetweetReply]

  4. [The OO seems to be implying that the tender was abandoned because News was gunna win:]

    Whereas I think the tender was abandoned because News was behind the skulduggery.

  5. Burgey@2753 My thought too. Abbott has embarked on a journey that only an iceberg will stop. MT will have to wait until after the lifeboats pick up the drowning and bedraggled before he can steer a new ship for the Libs.

  6. Confessions 2747

    I didn’t see you questions ?
    What were the numbers..?..I have NEVER ever commented on the moslem issue and your statements are totally untrue.or simply ill-informed
    Don’t make up lies about me

  7. [deblonay

    Posted Monday, November 7, 2011 at 11:32 pm | Permalink

    Confessions 2747

    I didn’t see you questions ?
    What were the numbers..?..I have NEVER ever commented on the moslem issue and your statements are totally untrue.or simply ill-informed
    Don’t make up lies about me

    Stop bullshitting – you posted as much when the Palestine desicion was made.

  8. Gweneth

    I’ve been looking forward to my lesson on Rugby since you promised back in September.

    And, I have to say, I was only joking when I said it resembled charlie over the water with a wet tennis ball! I was actually praying for someone to tell me about it.

    Nevertheless, I’ve forgotten which was best, RU or NRL (hope they;re not the same)

  9. I think Ghost’s contact who was leaking the Newspoll was discovered which is why he/she isn’t able to get them out on twitter/here early anymore (which is why The Australian’s media diary said Ghost had only been leaking Newspoll for a few months rather than much longer)

    Still gets Galaxy before others though. Not sure about Nielsen.

  10. [The ghost is playing his cards close to his chest tonight.]

    More likely he hasn’t been dealt a hand yet. Shamahan must be be struggling to pull his narrative together explaining why Abbott is still the right man for the job despite falling support.

  11. Turnbull can’t lead the Liberals while the Carbon Tax remains an issue. So his only real chance is returning after a Coalition loss at the next election.

  12. [2764


    Posted Monday, November 7, 2011 at 11:37 pm | Permalink

    Frank did you not see my ask about Alannah? Is cool if you didn’t, was just interested

    I did – and said that Alllanah is happy being Mayor of Vincent at thnis point in time.

  13. If there was a leadership challenge to Budgie Smuggler, the talkback radio shockjocks would be pushing very hard the claims of Scott Morrison.

  14. kezza2 Sorry but work often takes me away from PB (probably a good thing on balance) so did not help you out with the rugby lesson.

    Lesson One: ‘Rugby’ is Rugby Union. ‘League’ or NRL is Rugby League.

    They used to be the same game but split in 1895. If you go to Wikipedia it has a reasonable history of the game. The rules differ significantly although some parts of the game (tries and conversions) stay the same.

  15. On who Gillard/ALP would prefer to face, don’t have a preference in that sense. It will be a hard fight (at least to get throught the next year) regardless. Tactics required will be different.

    I am not a fan of the friendly face of fascism (MT). Only benefit will be he won’t destroy the place through incompentence, but he will make it less equal and more “pro business”. He will also wear a leather jacket from time to time.

  16. [So his only real chance is returning after a Coalition loss at the next election.]

    At which point he’ll be 59, and at the following election, 62. Not too old in PC terms, but he’ll have the next generation of Liberals snapping at his heels.

  17. [and as usual no evidence just bile]

    Because ‘no party should have a woman leader’ isn’t a bile-fuelled statement at all, no…

    As for Newspoll, nice! May the trend continue. Some of the associated polls will be interesting too.

  18. [deblonay

    Posted Monday, November 7, 2011 at 11:45 pm | Permalink

    Frank Celbrese 2761
    as usual your just plain wrong,,,,and as usual no evidence just bile

    At least spell my name correctly.

    and your Anti Gillard Rants the other week suggest otherwise.

  19. Next Coalition leader should have been Hockey, but he’s been so woeful lately that the Liberals would be more likely to go for either Morrison or Robb.
    Turnball would be lucky to get more than 5 votes in their partyroom.

  20. Gweneth

    I’m not going to wiki over rugby

    you promised to give me a lesson, and I;m up for it.

    so now I know RU is rugby
    league is league

    and according to gussie

    RU is for girls


    RL is for violent peeps

    and I still don’t knwo which variety I should follow

    if I ever had a reason to!

  21. Even the MSM is saying that Abbott has to reduce the negativity. He knows little else but negativity. His party have no policies of any substance and are too divided to formulate a vision for the nation. Where to from here? A continual downward spiral is my bet.

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