Roy Morgan’s first poll in two weeks is from a face-to-face survey of 1690 voters conducted over the past two weekends. It shows a slight widening of Labor’s two-party lead to 59-41, with the Coalition primary vote down from 37 per cent to 36 per cent and Labor’s up from 48 per cent to 50.5 per cent.
UPDATE: The outstanding Possum’s Pollytics, whose absence from this site’s blogroll is keenly felt (to be corrected when I overhaul the site in about a month or so), produces some interesting data on variations between Newspoll and Morgan results.
UPDATE 2: And Andrew Leigh has an easy-to-follow run-through of the Portlandbet electorate odds that have everybody talking.
BACKLIGHT: Do you think this could be a reverse ’96, where Howard regains the prefered P.M. stakes because he is the devil we know, but struggles to get the voting intention to change?
Was Fraser leading Hayden/Hawke on prefered P.M. in 1983?
Surely it is far easier to moving the polls from 60/40 to 55/45, than it is moving it from 55/45 to 50/50. A 60/40 poll to me means that the amount of soft support is high, which is easier to move.
GAry
aborignal thing giving Howard strong media prensance, rudd relatively quiet
Blacklight, you’re right about the trendlines for 95/6 basically being flat.
But in 2007 we have seen the ALP reach a high of 61% in March and slowly descend from there to about 55-56 by July. There is a difference between those two cycles.
I agree the cycle is different, but surely it must be considered WORSE for the Government. 61% is astronomically high, there will never be an election that one sided. Hence so many government back-benchers got nervous when the polls went that high.
yup down from LOONEY RIDICLOUS GENOCIDE, to just plain old bloodbath
Time seems to be running out for the Howard comeback, no doubt there will be one, but it should have started a little while ago.
November 10 or November 17 starting to look like good dates now. Gives Howard about 90 days before he calls it on (or 6 newspolls) Is it enough time?
All over one way or another in about 120 or so days!
Ah Adam,
Just like the Bourbons forgot nothing and learnt nothing – “the intervention” was about laying the groundwork it can be turned on and off as required. Arresting a few paedophiles is just what the doctor ordered.
I think preferred PM feeds into voting intentions. 56-44 in July doesnt mean that in October/November. The fundamentals are against K.Rudd economy etc.
More interesting if the betting odds move tomorrow? Presumably if the trend is solid in the polls the odds will start moving sharply.
Edward, the aboriginal arrests occurred in the Kimberleys, not NT – so your 9-day estimate is still possible. Interesting, because from memory at the time, the WA Carpenter Govt offered most resistance to the Howard push. Kind of lessens the wedge prospects.
Meanwhile in the NT Aboriginal groups are resisting the 5-year land grab and the NT govt is opposing the ending of the permit system for moving onto aboriginal land.
Down south it doesn’t seem to be gripping as a wedge issue. I reckon it hasn’t got many legs now. Howard’s only belated chance is the terrorist bomber security thing, but even this is not igniting the usual fear.
Spot on Don. It takes two to tango (or wedge)
I think the Australian people expect any Government to arrest paedophiles wherever whenever. They won’t give you any political credit for doing it, although they’ll punish if you stuff it up.
Edward’s loopy conspiracy theory also requires us to believe that Howard is somehow in control of the timing of arrests by the NT police. You should watch out, Edward, or people will start to believe that you are really as stupid as you seem.
Off to the next thread >>>
ELECTION UPDATE
This poll is good from a Labor supporters point of view. It’s more realistic. Howard though is in a kind of position where he is in control now.
Edward StJohn Says:
“I hear on the ABC the first child sex arrest has happened in the NT.”
Are you trying to claim that this is the first one ever? Or that this particular one is due to Howard’s ‘intervention’?
The Newspoll has TPP 56/44 The Morgan Phone poll 59/41 [on the back of a face to face of 59/41 covering the previous two weeks] and as they have previously noted the phone poll gives a lower labor figure by at least one point. It would appear then that the Morgan should be 60/40.
It is interesting to view the Newspoll 56/44 against that. We shouldnt assume that the lower figure is the correct one. Morgan could well be right [it got the primary right last election and picked the State election primaries] in which case we have had a consistent 58/59 – 41 TPP
I know why. People are dead scared that the Howard govt will get back in and are making sure by not changing their vote to balance things up like they normally would. Howard should go to stop this phenomena. :]
Considering poll numbers etc things are very quiet here in a so-called marginal (Boothby SA). The local member has no profile here whatsoever. . . maybe he knows something i don’t. Still things must look pretty good ALP wise in SA, no major stuff ups re the solidly entrenched ALP govt, ineffectual opposition, maybe more seats will fall here than predicted. Apart from the upset of Bill Weller winning Kingston, don’t write labor off in Mayo. Good riddance Alex!
Further to above, don’t write off foreign policy blunders as an electoral issue. It’s not just the economy stupid!
Yay I was right on two counts… 1) Dennis’ headline in the Oz would focus on the preferred PM poll and 2) the Oz would do a second poll which it new the Gov’t would do well (indigenous policy for the NT) in to mask the bad news arising from the voting intentions. Whatever spin and gloss the Oz tries, it can’t eclipse yet another round of shocking news for the Gov’t.
“government has not had any major scandals”
No major scandals that have had an immediate dramatic effect in the polls. However there have been plenty of scandals alright: WMD, children overboard, Reith’s phonecard, Rau & Solon, Hicks, AWB, Santoro’s shares. Do I need to go on? 🙂
It’s possible that these are all water under the bridge and will no longer be on people’s mind when they vote, in which case the govt might claw back to a victory.
However it’s also possible that while voters could forgive any individual one of these, they can see the accumulated baggage of these piled on the govt’s shoulders, in which case the govt are probably dead men walking.
Blacklight Says:
July 9th, 2007 at 10:57 pm
actually,
http://www.ozpolitics.info/blog/2007/06/03/1996-v-2007-similarities-and-differences/
Read your assessment Blacklight (above); brilliant !! Well done.