The Ten Network reported this evening on a New South Wales state poll it commissioned from uComms, which was “run over the past 24 hours”, providing me with a helpful opportunity to launch a thread on the biggest issue in Australian politics right at the moment.
The results are welcome news for a beleaguered Gladys Berejiklian, finding 62.7% of respondents do not believe she should resign, with only 27.7% believing she should. Only 23.6% said this week’s revelations made them less likely to vote for her, with 49.8% saying they made no difference and 26.6% offered the seemingly perverse response that they actually made them more likely to vote for her — albeit that most of these respondents would likely have done so in any case. When asked who they would have replace her if she did indeed resign, Rob Stokes lead the field with 38.4%, ahead of 35.6% for Dominic Perrottet and 26.0% for Mark Speakman.
There was also a question on voting intention, but the Ten News report was frustratingly light on detail, saying only that the Coalition was on 38% and Labor 30%. This very likely did not involve distribution of an undecided component that typically comes in at around 8%, so it should be deemed that the true primary votes for both parties were around three points higher – putting both of them more or less where they were at the 2019 election.
NSW Labor botched a rolled gold opportunity here – what do you next after a motion of no confidence ? Should have let ICAC play out and build the pressure.
Professional women will save gladys.
First poll since election?
Must be a record hiatus.
“26.6% offered the seemingly perverse response that they actually made them more likely to vote for her”
It’s NSW. We do perverse.
20-20 draw with Libs/Nats/Animal Justice/The Lord/Ex-Green versus ALP/Greens/One Nation/Elephant Killers
Yes, bizarre that Animal Justice voted for KoalaKiller in the NSW Upper House..
Paddy Manning in The Monthly says this ain’t going away anytime soon…
‘Maguire’s evidence at ICAC today was stunning. He basically admitted he monetised his position as an MP, particularly in promoting his fraudulent Chinese cash-for-visas scheme. (And one wonders whether the thoroughly apolitical Australian Federal Police might have done anything about that, given it had no problem raiding the office of Labor MP Shaoquett Moselmane, destroying his parliamentary career, and then declaring he was no longer of interest.) But today the main game is not Maguire’s corrupt shenanigans – he is done for – it’s the premier herself. When he was asked if he had ever taken a fee in exchange for introducing someone to another MP or the premier, Maguire said he hadn’t because “that would be going too far”. The Australian’s Caroline Overington says that means “he never pimped out Gladys”, but it’s too early to judge.’
https://www.themonthly.com.au/today/paddy-manning/2020/14/2020/1602651269/woo-hoo
The Premier certainly is getting some support, albeit to varying degrees of tepidity. Even Anthony Whealy is holding back.
“ It’s NSW. We do perverse.
20-20 draw with Libs/Nats/Animal Justice/The Lord/Ex-Green versus ALP/Greens/One Nation/Elephant Killers”
Lols.
I reckon a lot of folk are so relieved that their Premier has been getting some, that they haven’t fully focused on the rorting and the looting that went hand in hand with the rooting …
With all four liberal factions of our media hitherto assuming the role of public broadcaster of the Daily Berejiklian, it will likely take some time for the public to refocus.
I’m sure that Shanksy can lay off the Uyghurs long enough to focus minds. What!
Was it the poster Watson Watch who used to go savagely after Maguire?Good time to walk on the stage.
What? So an MP isn’t allowed to wet his beak anymore?
(May be of meaning to fans of Archer)
Jodie blows it again. Plays her one card about 2 weeks too early, and even loses in the chamber that the ALP has some control over. They have Latham and the Shooters onside (b/c Gladys is too moderate for them) and then manage to lose Animal Justice and Justin Field.
And the 2 real InDs in the LA, Alex Greenwich and Greg Piper vote against them.
Whomever heads up ALP tactics, can we keep them in that role. Looking forward to Gladys v Jodie, 2023!!
Needless to say ‘Dollar Dazzler’ isn’t very popular here in Wagga Wagga at the moment.
He and his dodgy mates are dragging our fair city through the mud.
Plenty of ‘upstanding’ local businessmen have made complete pork chops of themselves with visa and other scams (too many to mention).
I worked at the local RSL club for a few years and Maguire was a frequent presence there. It came as no surprise to see board members and senior management of that club embroiled in this shameful controversy.
The Libs can give up on winning back Wagga Wagga for a generation.
How can they run a poll when Maguire evidence in icac have not yet been completed , who knows NSW may have a new premier today
Also it shows people who say gladys should not resign condones lying to corruption inquiry
Maguire should open a two dollar shop on Baylis St: ‘Dodgy Daryl’s Dollar Dazzler Deals’.
After all, he started out as a furniture salesman in Wagga…
Did they end up releasing the full results of this poll? Would be interesting to see what the primary votes were for others apart from Lib/Lab.
Hi moderate. Your reappearance suggests a degree of panic.
God, how I hope #GuiltyGladys lingers. I don’t think NSW Labor has blown it – at all. The Parliament’s cross benches are a freak show, so who knows what is going on with them at any stage.
The no confidence motion that counts – in the lower house – was always going to fail, but that is not the point of it. This helps reframe the debate: Gladys isn’t likely to be perceived as little miss hockey socks who works 16 hours a day honestly toiling for the people of NSW any more: every one of her major decisions over the past 9 years can be revisited and even a lazy media will be forced to keep up.
It was blatant just how perverse each one of these decisions was in the first place, but the media and the public didn’t seem too care. Some of that apathy rests on the inability of Labor to prosecute its case, no doubt.
However, now that her character has been exposed folk are more likely to understand the incompetence, mal-administration and corrupt culture at the heart of it all AND that this is speaks of #GuiltyGladys’s soul and black pea sized heart. In other words, a Liberal – just like the rest of the pirates.
– Inner City Light Rail
– Stadiums
– Brumbies
– Land Clearing
– Asset Sales
– Water Management
– Cruise line Industry
And on and on its goes.
I think this person in the liberal party should be the one to replace Gladys
Victor Dominello
Haha -Andrew Earlwood I remember you breathlessly returning from the “war room” on polling day 2019, advising us all that the ALP was going to win Bathurst, Monaro and Kiama. So that’s probably a decent guide to your political judgement old son eh?? Gladys v Jodie 2023 – bring it on. We will be over 60 seats.
PS – I expect the war room was really the TAB at your local pub, but maybe I’m being a bit harsh.
“Was it the poster Watson Watch who used to go savagely after Maguire?”
It wasn’t me!
“ I remember you breathlessly returning from the “war room” on polling day 2019, advising us all that the ALP was going to win Bathurst, Monaro and Kiama.”
You misremembered.
I thought Bathurst and Monaro were both in play the week before, but I was under no illusions on Election Day: far less seats were in play and minority government was all that could be hoped for. What killed even that hope was the still very high exhaust rate – the swing against the government on primaries was on, but precious little of that came back to Labor. Leaving the war room, I had some hopes in East Hills, Penrith, Ballina, Goulburn, Upper Hunter and perhaps a bolter in the southern or western outskirts (ie. Holsworthy, Heathcote, Seven Hills) – plus the two seats Labor did pick up. I also had hopes of a bigger rout of the Nats – especially to the independent in Dubbo. If all off those fell (and most had a swing before the exhaust killed off my hopes) then Labor could well have formed minority government. Alas.
However, the party officers in HO said that it was likely to be an early night, so my expectations on Saturday night were very low. A week before? Different proposition.
Not what you said on polling day. Check your post at approx 1.45pm. Rushing back from the war room (how Churchillian) indicating all of the above were in play. Just admit you got it terribly wrong and we can move on – okay?
PS the exhaust rate was almost identical than that in 2015, and less than that in 2011.
“ PS the exhaust rate was almost identical than that in 2015, and less than that in 2011.”
I haven’t the time or inclination to search bludger archives right now.
Exactly. It needed to be much less than what it was in both 2015 and 2011.
Ill take that as a (grudging) admission of a little election over excitement in 2019. It wasn’t really that hard was it old son?
Re exhaust rates, you raised it, not me!!
I think that Darryl’s little “hokis” is dead meat. The 100% endorsement for the party room and the fact that Christian Porter had to send his endorsement of her from Perth is a dead give-away.
I think A_E was actually quite measured. One of the posters here had Myall Lakes in the Labor list
I had high hopes for a Foley Labor government but I guess if there is one lesson to be learned it is that, you should’t put your hand in a journalist’s underpants without a specific, and preferably written, invitation.
As for Daley! The lesson is that you will be caught out if you try to be Sarah Hanson Young in Balmain and Pauline Hansen in Katoomba
“ Ill take that as a (grudging) admission of a little election over excitement in 2019. It wasn’t really that hard was it old son?
Re exhaust rates, you raised it, not me!!”
Oh, I was hugely over excited in the lead up, but my hopes had tempered by election eve. No grudging admission needed, sport.
And the exhaust rate was important. Probably not decisive just by itself, by a major factor nonetheless.
When someone says I don’t want to know what you are up to, they know you are dodgy!.
End of story!.
Latham live in the Legislative Council
https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/pages/lc-webcast-page.aspx
oops gone now
Interesting times…
There’s a YouGov poll in The Sunday Telegraph today.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ekjw22gVgAAVdZU?format=jpg&name=large