Two more federal polls that have emerged this week:
• The fortnightly Roy Morgan poll has Labor down a point to 25.5%, One Nation up two to 24.5%, the Coalition down one-and-a-half to 22% and the Greens down half to 15%. Labor holds two-party leads over the Coalition of 52.5-47.5 (in from 53-47) on previous election preferences and 51-49 on respondent-allocated (in from 52.5-47.5), and of 52-48 (in from 53-47) over One Nation on respondent-allocated. The poll was conducted October 26 to November 8 from a sample of 2574.
• Spectre Strategy has published one of its occasional federal polls (its third for the year), which has Labor at 25%, One Nation at 28%, the Coalition at 24% and the Greens at 13%. The Coalition holds a 53-47 respondent-allocated two-party lead over Labor, while Labor holds a 52-48 lead over One Nation. Anthony Albanese has a combined favourable and very favourable rating of 29%, 14% for neutral and 54% for unfavourable and very unfavourable, while Angus Taylor is at 27%, 27% and 29%, and Pauline Hanson is at 41%, 12% and 44%. A three-way preferred prime minister result has Albanese at 34%, Taylor at 22% and Hanson at 30%. The poll was conducted October 28 to November 3 from a sample of 2093.
• Also, the annual Scanlon Foundation/Australian National University Mapping Social Cohesion survey finds 31% of the view that “government in Canberra can be trusted to do the right thing for the Australian people” almost always or most of the time, down from 54% in 2020, with the results heavily polarised on partisan lines, One Nation voters being the most distrustful. The sentiment that “multiculturalism has been good for Australia” is at 76%, down from 89% in 2023. Forty-three per cent confess to negative attitudes towards Muslims, up from 29% in 2022; 18% towards Hindus, up from 9%; 18% towards Jews, up from 8%; and 36% profess a negative attitude towards Israel.
Boerwarsays:
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 9:05 am
We will know we are in a global war on day 1 when all digital systems suddenly go black.
**********
Yep. I’m going to be pretty jumpy about any significant outages for quite some time. I don’t think Australia is even vaguely prepared for what could come, just how destructive a modern cyber attack could be.
Former Liberal MP Rory Amon found guilty of raping 13-year-old boy inside a toilet.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/former-nsw-mp-found-guilty-of-rape-20261113-p61e2n.html
A little troubling that the simulated discussion on this website appears to have neglected this important news.
Nov. 13, 2026, 5:57 p.m. ET3 minutes ago
Maggie Haberman
In the middle of national aviation challenges, President Trump is posting on social media about his hopes for tax incentives to lure filmmaking to the United States.
Apparently, according to Rep Raja Krishnamoorthi on CNN, who is on House Intelligence committee, The US National Weather Service (NWS) reported widespread nationwide internet and communications issues that may block users from accessing web products or display outdated information.
• The Impact: Visitors to Weather.gov and local NWS office pages may experience missing data, slow loads, or old forecasts
The cause has been revealed…
Anthony Albanese isn’t the first politician or the last politician that will be recorded with an inadvertent comment that was off the record. Remember this? People have short memories. Get over it.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=M8w7Yz1Htz4&pp=ygUgR2VvcmdlIHcgYnVzaCBhc3Nob2xlIGpvdXJuYWxpc3Q%3D
Sprocket
And forget it’s also fault of Albo and “dick” gate.
You know it makes perfect sense. Lol
If this outage is AI related, they need to bloody well say so.
Oh wait…………
Imagine if Albo and Bowen had included the other word instead.
https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2026
No-one should be surprised at Albo’s latest #gate given all the dumb shit this product of NSW Labor has dished up.
The bigger worry this week was him standing by his support for Trumps war.
I’m not sure the soldier who chastised Hegseth’s group deserved a medal, but he has diffused the situation somewhat, and he’ll still be impeached.
– NPR
Good morning All.
THE LEAD
Labor is having a rough week, and the calls for a reset are getting louder. Paul Sakkal looks inside the strained relationship between Albanese and Chalmers, which he says has been worn down by a grim economic outlook as well as factional and personality clashes. At the ABC, Jacob Greber (analysis) writes that the government’s early days have given way to grim realism. In the Guardian, Tom McIlroy (analysis) argues that, with house prices falling, Labor needs to start making the case for its tax changes.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-fractured-albanese-chalmers-relationship-and-growing-calls-for-a-labor-reset-20261114-p61dtk.html
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-11-14/government-floundering-albanese-salad-days-wilted/107382680
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/nov/13/abor-australia-tax-changes-house-prices-fall
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT
Albanese and Chris Bowen were caught on a hot mic at COP31, joking about where they keep their phones, reports Natassia Chrysanthos.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-caught-in-hot-mic-gaffe-20261113-p61e33.html
Tony Burke has confirmed changes to the backpacker crackdown after a backlash, report Matthew Knott, and Holly Tregenza and Olivia Thorn.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/burke-flags-backpacker-backdown-after-backlash-20261113-p61dvm.html
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-11-13/backpacker-working-holiday-visa-immigration-uk-rethink/107381884
Senior government figures are worried that immigration cuts are pushing universities towards insolvency. Leaked ANU figures point to a deficit three times bigger than forecast, reports Jason Koutsoukis.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/immigration/2026/11/14/evil-genius-immigration-changes-pushing-unis-insolvency
NAB boss Andrew Irvine calls one tax “the most atrocious, abominable” drag on productivity, and compares it to taxing blood donors, reports Shane Wright.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/like-taxing-blood-donors-bank-boss-reveals-biggest-gripe-20261113-p61dwt.html
Bob Carr says the $368 billion AUKUS deal is “living a lie” and that Australia will never get its nuclear submarines, reports Tom McIlroy (exclusive).
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/nov/13/bob-carr-aukus-deal-living-a-lie-australia-us
Australia and the Philippines are about to sign a major defence cooperation agreement as tensions with China in the South China Sea continue, report Tim Swanston and Stephen Dziedzic.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-11-14/major-defence-deal-astralia-philippines-clashes-china/107381694
AI AND TECH
Toby Walsh (opinion) sets out the questions he thinks the government must answer on its new AI rules. His main question is what Canberra can actually do when a US or Chinese AI company refuses to submit to Australian safety tests.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/comment/2026/11/14/questions-government-must-answer-ai
After the Microsoft outage, experts say Australia needs to reduce its reliance on US tech giants, and that doing so will be expensive, reports Ahmed Yussuf.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-11-14/microsoft-outage-and-cloud-providers-tech-risk-in-australia/107383316
Nvidia’s Jensen Huang has resigned, and the trail leads partly through Australia. Kate Lamb and Josh Butler try to work out what Megaspeed is, the company at the centre of the scandal.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/nov/13/a-baffling-trail-from-australia-to-singapore-what-is-megaspeed-the-company-implicated-in-downfall-of-nvidias-jensen-huang
OPPOSITION AND ONE NATION
Karen Barlow writes that the Coalition is divided over what the US midterms mean for it, and the split shows how much sway the Nationals have.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2026/11/14/coalitions-lessons-midterms-were-losing-our-identity-nation
Peter Hartcher (opinion) says the most revealing thing about One Nation’s website is what has been removed from it in the past week, though the deleted pages can still be found on the Wayback Machine.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/look-closely-at-one-nation-s-website-what-s-no-longer-there-is-most-telling-20261114-p61dwv.html
ECONOMY
John Hewson (opinion) asks whether the RBA misread what the US midterms mean for the economy.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/comment/economy/2026/11/14/rbas-misstep-us-midterms
VICTORIAN ELECTION
After the first week of the Big Build royal commission:
• Martin McKenzie-Murray covers the “direct line” to the premier’s office.
• Adam Carey and Kieran Rooney report that a rail alliance was told to make peace with the union or never work in Melbourne again.
• Michael Bachelard (analysis) says that under Andrews and Allan, the buck stopped in the CFMEU’s pockets.
• An Age editorial says the commission is uncovering rot in government and has only just begun.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/law-crime/2026/11/14/cfmeu-inquiry-notes-direct-line-premier
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/victoria/bend-the-knee-rail-alliance-told-make-peace-with-union-or-never-work-in-melbourne-again-20261113-p61dwn.html
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/victoria/under-the-andrews-allan-government-the-buck-stopped-in-the-pockets-of-the-cfmeu-20261113-p61e0s.html
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/victoria/royal-commission-is-exposing-rot-in-government-and-it-s-just-getting-started-20261113-p61dop.html
On the campaign trail:
• Jess Wilson skipped the leaders’ debate and took the “Jess Express” to a Wodonga pub, reports Benita Kolovos.
• In Nationals heartland, an “orange wave” has made a safe seat competitive, reports Benjamin Preiss.
• Rachael Ward explains the competing housing plans (activity centres or a sprawling CBD) that are on the ballot.
• Judd Boaz has a guide to the more than a dozen minor parties standing.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/nov/14/jess-wilson-wodonga-pub-vic-election-campaign-2026-ntwnfb
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/victoria/this-seat-was-safe-as-houses-now-the-political-script-has-been-flipped-by-an-orange-wave-20261113-p61apr.html
https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/activity-centres-or-a-sprawling-cbd-voters-deliver-their-verdict-20261114-p61dl1.html
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-11-14/victoria-2026-state-election-independent-party-explainer/107342014
A court has backed the Victorian government over “loophole logging,” reports Katherine Wilson.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/environment/2026/11/14/court-backs-victorias-loophole-logging
OTHER STATES
Queensland’s CFMEU inquiry has delivered its findings after months of hearings, eight million documents and more than 80 witnesses. Commissioner Stuart Wood KC calls for urgent action, reports Ciara Jones. Separately, nurses’ and teachers’ unions say the LNP’s proposed bargaining laws go further than Campbell Newman did, reports Matt Dennien.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-11-14/qld-cfmeu-inquiry-report-analysis/107377580
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/queensland/lnp-going-beyond-newman-to-squash-public-sector-bargaining-unions-say-20261113-p61dzj.html
In NSW, Chris Minns has told angry Labor branches that the party is “not running a charity” and is standing by his captain’s picks, reports Jessica McSweeney. Bob Brown (opinion) accuses Minns of a “Trumpian” disregard for the damage coal does, citing the Rising Tide protest ban.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/not-running-a-charity-minns-defies-labor-branch-anger-over-captain-s-calls-20261113-p61e01.html
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/nov/14/chris-minns-trumpian-disdain-climate-coalmining-rising-tide-protest-ban-ntwnfb
HEALTH AND SOCIAL POLICY
The chemical regulator has decided not to ban paraquat, a weedkiller that is banned in many other countries. Clare Watson reports that critics call this an “indefensible” failure to protect health.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/health/2026/11/14/widely-banned-weedkiller-survives-australian-review
A Herald editorial argues that the Family Court is meant to protect families but is being used as a weapon by abusers, and that it escapes the scrutiny other parts of the justice system face.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-family-court-is-meant-to-protect-families-instead-abusers-are-weaponising-it-20261114-p61dsa.html
Researchers warn that minimum accommodation standards on FIFO mine sites are slipping, despite years of scrutiny, report Alistair Bates and Bryn Wakefield.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-11-13/fifo-bare-minimum-standards-not-being-enforced/107341422
HungryPanda delivery riders describe risky situations and financial penalties, report Bertin Huynh and Adeshola Ore.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/ng-interactive/2026/nov/14/delivery-riders-stolen-food-orders-what-happens-when-hungrypanda-ntwnfb
CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENT
As COP31 heads into its second week:
• Laura Tingle (analysis) looks at whether the “35-by-35” target can hold.
• Graham Readfearn says the PM’s coffee diplomacy can’t escape domestic politics.
• Nick O’Malley and Natassia Chrysanthos say Bowen, a veteran of climate talks, faces his biggest task yet.
• Oliver Milman reports that more than 100 groups linked to fossil fuels have sent delegations, outnumbering some of the most vulnerable countries.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-11-14/cop31-35-by-35-climate-change-target/107384386
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/nov/13/anthony-albaneses-coffee-diplomacy-cant-remove-shadow-of-domestic-politics-at-cop31
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/bowen-is-an-old-hand-at-climate-talks-this-time-he-faces-a-monumental-task-20261114-p61dvp.html
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/nov/13/cop31-companies-and-groups-linked-to-fossil-fuels-delegations
Weipa on Cape York has had 39 days in a row above 36 degrees as Queensland’s heatwave sets more records, report Sharnie Kim and Brendan Mounter.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-11-14/cape-york-town-of-weipa-breaks-weather-records-in-prolonged-heat/107384870
Under a Tasmanian government proposal, AI data centre developers would run their own community benefit funds, reports Josh Duggan.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-11-13/tasmanian-data-centres-to-run-own-community-benefit-fund/107383452
INTERNATIONAL
The US aviation authority has stopped all departing flights nationwide, citing communication issues. It is only the third national ground stop in US history, and it affects thousands of flights. Michael Koziol, and Hannah Hammoud and Chris Zappone, report, and the ABC is running a live blog.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/us-faa-grounds-all-departing-flights-due-to-extraordinary-circumstance-safety-reasons-20261114-p61e3z.html
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/the-us-has-grounded-all-flights-nationwide-here-s-what-we-know-so-far-20261114-p61e49.html
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-11-14/follow-live-us-aviation-authority-grounds-all-flights/107385742
Compiled with the assistance of Claude (Anthropic, Claude Opus 5.5) and edited by Douglas and Milko.
Yep. If, and it is a big if, the US and the Iranians hold to their current war settings near the SoH, the US is looking increasingly like the ‘winner’. That is, the negotiated outcomes won’t nearly be equal to what the Iranians (and most of the rest of the world, including most bludgers) were confidently expecting six months ago.
Omar Comin’
What can one really say about it? As far as I know, there is no suggestion that the Liberal Party was aware of the crimes with which Amon was charged prior to his being arrested. In the absence of any such suggestion, it’s not really a political issue IMO.
The same applies for several comparable cases that have involved Labor politicians.
Apparently the AI Software “Smart” is unlikely to be to blame for this Air Traffic outage as its focus is on routing of planes but the issue is with the communications systems – the Air traffic controllers talking to the planes. The system is involved is not involved in landing and taking off at airports but in control the planes once they are in airspace.
If a plane can see a tower at an airport they can keep communicating with the ground. Therefore, the local airports are now controlling the traffic in their local areas. Additionally, the planes can still talk to each other and guide each other – like they do over the oceans.
https://theenergy.co/articles/australia-and-china-take-first-steps-towards-greener-steel
Thank you D&M and A&I.
Indeed.
I have been exposed in significant detail to two cases wherein the female abusers of the system have, literally, between them gotten away with kidnapping, false and extremely damaging allegations, and an attempt to burn their partner and children to death.
I am 100% certain that male abusers are also getting away with anything up to and including murder.
Making justice systems abuser-proof is harder than it looks. Apparently.
BS Fairman
And that should be perfectly ok. As per this story.
https://simpleflying.com/washington-unassisted-landings-sleeping-atc/
Herald Sun 14/11
The embarrassing gaffe happened just before an Austrade business delegation roundtable to discuss renewables, and just hours before the PM was due to depart Turkey and head to his next international destination, the Philippines.
_______________________
OMG the Philippines.
God knows what is going to come out of his mouth there.
That would be the worst spot for him right now.
Much thanks Douglas and Milko
Some context: There are around 3,000 ex-pollies in Australia. What he did was terrible and I hope he spends some jail time for it. But it is hardly party-political.
A few thoughts: Labor is on a long-term winner with her housing policy, but they need to start actually selling it. Don’t just leave it to Clare O’Neill. It’s doing what you’ve said it would do – making housing more affordable for first homebuyers. That’s good. Sell it!
Gen Z will be absolutely loving it and Gen Z said is the future of electoral victory. What else can be done for them? Getting rid of the jobs ready graduate package is an obvious one.
It was always a punitive shitshow, with zero policy justification, (arts employs more people than mining) and it brings as much intellectual heft to higher education policy as the cliched graffiti canard in a uni toilet (arts degrees, take one). The relevant voters know it’s simply to discourage critical thinking.
The other good news for Labour is a slight poll rise for LNP probably keeps Angus in the seat in 2028 where I have no doubt he will demonstrate his innate ability to screw everything up.
Great to see Matt Canavan take exactly the wrong lesson from the US midterms as well.
The bad news is that labor seems totally clueless on policy direction otherwise. Take the hint from the US midterms. Actually defend a sustainable level of migration, on the ground that it’s good for the economy, comma stupid. Then change the conversation and move onto a bold reform agenda involving cost-of-living relief. Fund it by taxing gas exports for fark sake. Literally everyone who might conceivably vote under any circumstances supports it. And then stop nickel and dimeing old people in nursing homes. Who incidentally will need tens of thousands of age care workers.
Also, the greens need to explain why they aren’t supporting dropping the private health insurance rebate for over 65s. I say that is someone who votes for you. Explain it to me. I don’t get it. It’s not progressive. Pensioners are better served by a well funded public system.
Will your’s, Pauline’s and Gina’s soul mate Trump even bother to turn up in Manila?
Over 1,000 US peeps are involved in getting him there and back safely. Cost to the US for Trump’s visit? That is five times the number of peeps Obama used when he traveled OS. The motorcade will be well over 50 vehicles long. Total cost to the CoL-beset US citizenry?
Well over $US100 million.
Enjoy!
L-e
Simples. Shoebridge is highly principled and honest and progressive. Until he is not.
Lol, TM. Is the HUN complaining that their feigned outrage has stopped them reporting on Albo’s speech at the COP31 Investor Round Table, which included:
https://www.pm.gov.au/media/cop31-australia-investor-roundtable
meher baba – It works fine for a few dozen aircraft but the more planes that get in the air, the more complex it gets.
At the moment, the FAA has started to let flights that are leaving coastal airports and flying out over the seas to take off. So planes from San Franciso and LAX flying to Hawaii, Asia or Australia have started taking off again and Planes from NY to Europe etc are doing the same. They can do this as they don’t use the affected system.
He should have got himself some DEI hires.
Yep. But the Get Albo squad will have it on endless repeat for years to come. Melons, for example, ditto.
It beats having to acknowledge that Albanese has been the first and only Australian prime minister to enact substantial climate action.
Action which the Hanson/Taylor* government will do their worst to undo.
*Pursuant in part to the Greens’ Plan to Replace Labor.
US has requested planes from Europe to US be cancelled.
That’s what they about you as well TM
D&M DP
As per CNNApparently 10000 flights are impacted and 3000 are cancelled.
A source said the government still doesn’t know why it is happening.
“In NSW, Chris Minns has told angry Labor branches that the party is “not running a charity” and is standing by his captain’s picks, reports Jessica McSweeney. ”
Yeah but Chris you do expect charity in return from the branch members. You expect them to donate to campaigns, letterbox, hand out how to vote cards, and door knock for free.
And for the Labor baggers the coalition pull the same crap (Warren Mundine, Roshena Campbell, Fiona Martin, and even Andrew Constance). Don’t pretend Gilmore was an actual Liberal preselection where all the competing Liberal nominations coincidencely all pulled out at the same time so Constance could run.
From LGM, interesting interview transcript between Aaron Rupar and Timothy Snyder about Trump and Authoritarianism.
https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2026/11/timothy-snyder-on-the-fundamental-attribution-error-of-the-trump-era
Albo & Bowen have probably enhanced their vote by 5% or more as they have shown themselves as real men and not media puppets.
Just out for brunch at Highton Village in South Barwon.
Lots of street campaigning going on.
Was handed flyers for Independent, Greens and Socialist Alliance as i walked past.
NAB boss criticises payroll tax.
Is this the same NAB which went out of its way to reduce Payroll Tax, by defrauding staff out of their salary payments and entitlements over the past 20 years?
Cory Doctorow on monopolism & Microsoft:
https://pluralistic.net/2026/11/13/outlookpocalypse/
Taylormade at 10.51am.
“OMG the Philippines. God knows what is going to come out of his mouth there.”
If he hangs around the girlie bars he might meet up with that god botherer and Member for Manila, former NP member G Christensen.
Cartoons
Rowe

Pope

Leahy

Matt Davidson

Edmund Iffland

Oslo Davis (The Saturday Paper)

Golding

“Time for a royal commission into redacting (″Redacted notes spur fierce rebuke at royal commission″, 13/11).”
Harry Bruce

Mark David

Tom Red

Rod Emmerson NZ Herald

https://www.industry.gov.au/news/australia-signs-horizon-europe-agreement
This is a ~$155 billion (AUD) fund.
I remember when Trump ran for president in 2016 a tape emerged of sexual comments he made on video captured Trump speaking candidly on a bus with host Billy Bush while arriving on the set of Days of Our Lives. I generally thought that was the end of the U.S. election right there. But whether voters didn’t care or Trump was successfuly able to pivot it didn’t seem a detriment to his chances as many thought. I read though when James Comley reopened the email gate federal investigation against Hillary Clinton it created a surge to Trump’s vote. And all the votes fell the right way for Trump in the battleground states which won him the White House.
“Albo & Bowen have probably enhanced their vote by 5% or more as they have shown themselves as real men and not media puppets.”
Is this parody?
The Greens looking out for Pensioners, hopefully they appreciate it and we get a lift in the polls from the old folk
I listen to SEN on Saturday mornings, their news was leading with Dick Gate although they went with “the D word” lol
Taylormade @ #721 Saturday, November 14th, 2026 – 10:51 am
As they say: LOL TailoredMerde!
Re the aircraft fun. Good to see in the midst of a crisis someone still cares about the “important” things.
It’s a politics adjacent matter of substantial public interest and your editorial decision is itself a matter of some interest, or at least it would be if anyone read this site.
Just wondering how we make housing available and affordable for young adults without increasing housing construction and at cost levels young Australians can afford. I just don’t see just squeezing the value of existing housing will achieve that aim unless construction costs for new housing can be contained.
Where do you put people in existing housing if they can’t afford to buy new housing.
Surely new housing at affordable cost is the long term answer?
They’re saying planes at high altitude can’t communicate with the towers.
Relax, everyone.
Fly Doge.