Federal polls: Roy Morgan and Spectre Strategy (open thread)

Two more federal polls with broadly familiar findings, plus a survey on social cohesion or the lack thereof.

Two more federal polls that have emerged this week:

• The fortnightly Roy Morgan poll has Labor down a point to 25.5%, One Nation up two to 24.5%, the Coalition down one-and-a-half to 22% and the Greens down half to 15%. Labor holds two-party leads over the Coalition of 52.5-47.5 (in from 53-47) on previous election preferences and 51-49 on respondent-allocated (in from 52.5-47.5), and of 52-48 (in from 53-47) over One Nation on respondent-allocated. The poll was conducted October 26 to November 8 from a sample of 2574.

• Spectre Strategy has published one of its occasional federal polls (its third for the year), which has Labor at 25%, One Nation at 28%, the Coalition at 24% and the Greens at 13%. The Coalition holds a 53-47 respondent-allocated two-party lead over Labor, while Labor holds a 52-48 lead over One Nation. Anthony Albanese has a combined favourable and very favourable rating of 29%, 14% for neutral and 54% for unfavourable and very unfavourable, while Angus Taylor is at 27%, 27% and 29%, and Pauline Hanson is at 41%, 12% and 44%. A three-way preferred prime minister result has Albanese at 34%, Taylor at 22% and Hanson at 30%. The poll was conducted October 28 to November 3 from a sample of 2093.

• Also, the annual Scanlon Foundation/Australian National University Mapping Social Cohesion survey finds 31% of the view that “government in Canberra can be trusted to do the right thing for the Australian people” almost always or most of the time, down from 54% in 2020, with the results heavily polarised on partisan lines, One Nation voters being the most distrustful. The sentiment that “multiculturalism has been good for Australia” is at 76%, down from 89% in 2023. Forty-three per cent confess to negative attitudes towards Muslims, up from 29% in 2022; 18% towards Hindus, up from 9%; 18% towards Jews, up from 8%; and 36% profess a negative attitude towards Israel.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

752 thoughts on “Federal polls: Roy Morgan and Spectre Strategy (open thread)”

Comments Page 14 of 16
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  2. 2 day Microsoft outage.
    FAA closes all US airspace
    Nvidia circular funding AI Ponzi scheme tottering

    Move along now, nothing to see here…

  6. An example of the Nvidia bankrolling.. the Kress referred to is the interim CEO Collette Kress.

    In the spring, Huang’s son-in-law Caprez and another vice president Raj Mirpuri told prospective business partners that Nvidia could arrange credit-support deals within a couple of weeks. Dozens of companies lined up for this program, hoping Nvidia’s backing would lower their borrowing costs. In exchange for providing credit support, Nvidia proposed that cloud providers share a cut of their revenue.

    Amid the rollout of the program, Kress raised questions including how to decide which deals to pursue, how to value the guarantees, and how to calculate the return on investment, a person familiar with the matter said. Behind the scenes, she tried to rein in Huang’s son-in-law, who had been promoted to a vice president in January, people who worked with her said.

    Nvidia pushed ahead. The company was in talks with OpenAI to provide a financial backstop for the largest data-center deal ever, an Ohio facility that would be the largest in the world.

    OpenAI was in talks to lease the entire campus, which it would fill with around $300 billion worth of Nvidia chips. Nvidia would provide a financial backstop that would make banks feel more comfortable about lending money, given that OpenAI was on the hook for the lease payments.

    https://www.wsj.com/tech/jensen-huang-colette-kress-nvidia-ceo-eb289097?mod=mhp

  7. Blue Octobersays:
    Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 6:56 am
    What is it with Australian politicians and hot mics at climate conferences? Dutton’s was far worse of course; this is just a bit embarrassing.

    Australians use far worse’F*ck’ word freely in their private and public conversations, use ‘dick’ word freely in their conversation but when Albanese had private conversation in public arena with his colleague, you are embarassed? Really?

  8. Is there any connection between the outages of Microsoft and now the US air traffic control system?

    One feels like one isn’t being told the truth.

  9. we had Nvidia blowout day before yesterday, Microsoft outage yesterday and all Air crafts are grounded today because of outage but we are more interested in Albanese ‘dick’ talk. Shaking my head emoji

  11. meher babasays:
    Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 9:12 am
    Is there any connection between the outages of Microsoft and now the US air traffic control system?

    One feels like one isn’t being told the truth.

    One can be sure about Trump regime. We will never be told the truth by them especially when air traffic controllers staff employment is cut to the bone

  14. Ven

    Yep. In a nutshell.

    It is so trivial and pathetic.

    The AI bubble has been literally been bubbling along for months and Trump and his people have been conducting treasonous acts in plain sight.

    But Albo said something.

    Sweet frickin Jebus. I can’t take this blog seriously

  16. ETJust Now
    Karoun DemirjianF.A.A. reporter

    Friday’s outage comes just a few days after the F.A.A. announced it would begin rolling out an artificial intelligence tool nationwide to help controllers avoid delays. That tool was first unveiled for the Washington, D.C., area airports two months ago, on a day when problems with air traffic communications failures also grounded hundreds of flights, after a circuit failed and it was discovered that contractors had accidentally ripped through a fiber line that was supposed to serve as its backup.

    NYT

  18. Pegasussays:
    Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 8:39 am
    BW

    What is not interesting is how you continue to lie or selectively lie about Greens policy.

    Peg,
    I’m looking forward to your response to the soon to be Liberal /PHON coalition government in Victoria.
    Some Greens have provided generous support to have the Liberal/PHON coalition elected.

  19. Scepticsays:
    Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 5:42 am
    We are destined to have politicians that are slow learners ..

    Bowen jokingly asked whether it was because it was “a little bit radioactive?” to which Albanese said yes, “it makes absolute sense”.

    The climate change minister said he was more conscious of putting his phone in his pants pocket. The prime minister asked: “Because of your dick?”

    Bowen agreed. “Arguably more important than the heart,” he said.

    A spokesman for the prime minister said: “They were having a joke in between meetings

    After ALL the “ hot Mike “ incidents we’ve had around the world these two idiots just don’t understand… keep your mouth & your fly SHUT!

    Sceptic
    Did you read my 1:20 am post where Macron bent Iceland PM in a intimate pose as if he was about to kiss her.
    Can you or someone else please publish the photo for which I provided the link.

  20. For some reason Albo’s faux pas has made me remember that doyen of the NSW Right and Minister for Gaming and Racing, the Honourable Dick Face.

    Dick had a distinctive moral code, he was flabbergasted that ICAC would be concerned with him setting up, in the ministerial office, a private consultancy practice for people in the gaming industry.
    He eventually got a 3 year good behaviour bond.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Face

  21. Of course the blessed inhabitants of Stooge City aren’t at all bothered about what Albo and Bowen might have said to each other.

    But I reckon the two gentlemen concerned are feeling a little annoyed with themselves today.

    It was undisciplined, especially on the part of Albo. And it was bad PR: something the Government simply doesn’t need more of right now. It will soon disappear from the public debate, but it adds to an overall impression that is not helpful.

  23. OC

    For some reason Albo’s faux pas has made me remember that doyen of the NSW Right and Minister for Gaming and Racing, the Honourable Dick Face.

    If he had been sitting in front of a hot mike, he would only have to introduce himself the person sitting alongside him and there would have been a problem with inappropriate language.

  25. I am sure that America will have no problem with it is transport issue with the Secretary of Transport, Sean Duffy – a former lumberjack and reality TV star – and Secretary of Homeland Security, Markwayne Mullins – a former plumber – being in control.
    Trump only hires the best!

  26. SLsays:
    Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 8:53 am
    Murdoch’s minions would be chuffed about how many useful idiots are willing to amplify their messages, which conveniently distracts from real news, such as the COP31 Pacific Partnership.
    _______________________
    It’s all about dick-gate now.
    That’s become the real news thanks to Albanese and Bowen.

    “President-designate Murat Kurum was asked what he knew about the penis comments when News Corp tracked him down among the large crowds at the COP31 conference centre on Friday afternoon (Saturday AEDT)”

  28. Taylormade

    The propaganda media units are making fools of them selves
    1-They are climate deniers
    2-They claim there were no major countries or any one at note at the climate meeting
    3- They supported Abbott, Morrison , Dutton who were laughing about South Pacific Islanders being effected by flood

  29. Il Donnie will soon announce that he has fixed the tech problem that mysteriously appeared to ground all aircraft without notice.

    The “art of the deal”

    I wish the Ukraine/Russian monstrosity to be so lucky!

    Good luck USA, you’ve taken steps to change course and don’t allow the narcissistic twit to attempt to reboard.

  32. Taylormadesays:
    Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 9:36 am
    SLsays:
    Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 8:53 am
    Murdoch’s minions would be chuffed about how many useful idiots are willing to amplify their messages, which conveniently distracts from real news, such as the COP31 Pacific Partnership.
    _______________________
    It’s all about dick-gate now.
    That’s become the real news thanks to Albanese and Bowen.

    “President-designate Murat Kurum was asked what he knew about the penis comments when News Corp tracked him down among the large crowds at the COP31 conference centre on Friday afternoon (Saturday AEDT)”

    Universal suffrage has its downside.

  36. Charlie:

    ‘Although if this were a corporate setting both men would be at risk of sexual harassment allegations if a colleague so much as overheard them and were offended..’

    Please don’t ever go into the front bar of any pub, you will be traumatised.

  37. Apparently the air-traffic control facilities in the US haven’t been upgraded in decades.

    Meanwhile we have this taking priority…

    Flights may be grounded, but that is not stopping SpaceX’s countdown for its Starship launch, which is scheduled to lift off at 5:47 p.m. Eastern time from the SpaceX site in South Texas. This test flight will aim to be the first where SpaceX will attempt to catch both parts of the rocket, a major step toward a fully reusable space vehicle.

  39. sprocket_says:
    Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 9:47 am
    Apparently the air-traffic control facilities in the US haven’t been upgraded in decades.

    Meanwhile we have this taking priority…

    Flights may be grounded, but that is not stopping SpaceX’s countdown for its Starship launch, which is scheduled to lift off at 5:47 p.m. Eastern time from the SpaceX site in South Texas. This test flight will aim to be the first where SpaceX will attempt to catch both parts of the rocket, a major step toward a fully reusable space vehicle.

    Ofcourse, nath will be so proud of it.

  40. I was once assured by a staffer that the Hon Richard Face was NEVER referred to as Dick. The draft media release was accordingly corrected.

  41. Regarding the FAA stoppage in the USA, might this be a coincidence?

    That thought struck me too. I’ve always argued that the AI takeover won’t be Arnold Schwarzenegger as the Terminator, but more likely the planes don’t work, or the power, or the water, or the phones … or all of them at once

  42. The US National ​Weather Service ‌said on Friday it was ​experiencing ​nationwide internet and ⁠communications problems ​that could ​prevent users from accessing products on ​its ​websites or cause outdated ‌information ⁠to be displayed.
    Technicians were working to ​resolve ​the ⁠problems as ​soon as ​possible, ⁠the NWS said in ⁠a ​statement

  45. Nearly 7,000 flights have been delayed or cancelled across the US after the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) ordered a nationwide ground stop following a communications failure affecting air traffic control centres. The rare shutdown, one of the few such measures since the 11 September 2001 attacks, has brought departures across the country to a halt.

  47. You have to wonder if it’s a cyberterrorism attack. We just aren’t being told the truth. I’m so sick of the software update excuse.

  48. Diogenes says: Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 9:54 am I can confirm it’s not cyberattack They were doing network upgrades few days prior

    Much like Optus failed upgrade

  50. GrannyAnnysays:
    Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 9:47 am
    Charlie:

    ‘Although if this were a corporate setting both men would be at risk of sexual harassment allegations if a colleague so much as overheard them and were offended..’

    Please don’t ever go into the front bar of any pub, you will be traumatised.

    charlie doesn’t have to go to a public. Even when 2 men talk in work surroundings, there will be “risk of sexual harassment allegations if a colleague so much as overheard them and were offended..”

    I used to be ‘offended’ a lot by the usage of ‘f*ck’ word in my work environment but I did not make a complaint about it and then I got used to it.

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