Further developments on the Victorian election front, including two new polls:
• The Age has a Resolve Strategic poll, conducted as part of the same survey as yesterday’s federal poll, which finds Labor running third without going quite so far as yesterday’s DemosAU result. The Coalition is up two points on last month’s result to 30%, One Nation is steady on 23%, Labor is down three to 22%, and the Greens are down two to 13%. Ben Carroll’s net approval rating is down five to minus 16%, Jess Wilson is up one to plus 24%, and and Warren Picking is up one to plus 9%. Wilson has a particularly good result on preferred premier, up six to 35%, with Ben Carroll down one to 21% and Warren Pickering up one to 15%. The poll was conducted last Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1000.
• The Herald Sun has a small sample seat poll of Pakenham on Melbourne’s south-eastern fringe, which Warren Pickering is relying on to carry him to One Nation’s parliamentary leadership. Conducted by TKW Research and Demos AU from a sample of 484, it has Pickering at 40% to Liberal candidate Radmila Dyson’s 24% and 14% for Labor’s Alessandra Soliven. However, as an indication of the challenge One Nation might faced, this only pans out to a 50-50 result on two-party preferred versus Liberal, which is based on a respondent-allocated preference flow from DemosAU’s accumulated polling rather than this specific poll. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 484, so its margin of error is upwards of 5%.
• I had a piece in Crikey yesterday about how-to-vote cards that appears to be available to non-subscribers. The upshot is that out of all the coverage that preference deals will receive over the coming week, only one aspect is worth your attention: who the Liberals put last out of Labor and the Greens, which could determine the outcome in a number of inner Melbourne seats.
• Yesterday saw the closure of nominations and ballot paper draws, so we know exactly who’s standing where and in what order. This makes it time for me to bring my election guide up to speed, which I’ll be working on over the coming days. Antony Green crunches the numbers: there are almost exactly as many lower house candidates as there were in 2022 (which is to say too many), but the end of group voting tickets has brought the number of upper house candidates down from 454 to 304, the lower number since 2020.
If it was Ben Carrol in opposition on 35% as preferred premier , against their political opponent who is not going well.
The propaganda media units , would be claiming the leader is a drag on the party vote, the party should be closer to 40%, than 30%
With the premier at 21% and the government primary vote is at 22%
Silence from the propaganda media units that Jess Wilson is on 35% and not a drag on the party vote , with the lib/nats combined primary vote at 30% according to resolve poll and 4.3% swing against lib/nats combined primary vote
Scott, just in case you missed it Carroll is on 21%. If 35% is a drag, 21% is probably an anchor
It’ll be interesting to see who draws where, the donkey vote might matter in a few places
Will the coalition help crush Labor by putting them last on their HTV cards?
William’s article in Crikey is still free to read
In hindsight, starting a royal commission into union corruption and how bad Labor’s economic management is may not have been the best move.
Electing a damp squib as party leader and then me-tooing many opposition policies may not have helped either.