Federal polls: DemosAU and Roy Morgan (open thread)

The latest quarterly MRP exercise from DemosAU suggests Labor could retain a majority from a very modest share of the primary vote — which is just as well for them.

DemosAU has published one of its quarterly multilevel regression and post-stratification polls for Capital Brief, which estimates results at seat level based on demographic and geographic modelling and a large-sample survey. It rates Labor the more likely winner in 84 seats, although its randomised simulations of 20,000 potential scenarios suggests this flatters them, the probable range of outcomes being from 73 to 85. This would nonetheless seem encouraging for Labor given the poll credits them with only 27% of the primary vote.

By contrast, One Nation’s 26% vote gets them rated favourites in only 24 seats (range 22 to 35), whereas the Coalition’s 22% gets them 34 (range 25 to 44). The Greens are credited with 13% of the vote but no seats, a Liberal National win being rated the most likely outcome in their remaining seat of Ryan, although this is projected as a close three-way result. The pollster’s full release features primary vote, two-candidate preferred and win probability estimates for every seat. The survey was conducted August 4 to September 19 from a sample of 9740.

The latest result from a Roy Morgan series that has moved from weekly to fortnightly has Labor steady on 26%, One Nation down one-and-a-half to 24%, the Coalition down one to 21.5% and the Greens unchanged on 15%. Labor holds two-party leads of 53-47 over the Coalition on respondent-allocated preferences, out from 52.5-47.5; 53.5-46.5 on previous election preferences; and 54.5-45.5 on a respondent-allocated measure against One Nation, out from 53.5-46.5. The pollster’s full report features primary vote breakdowns by state. The poll was conducted September 28 to October 11 from a sample of 2655.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,036 thoughts on “Federal polls: DemosAU and Roy Morgan (open thread)”

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  1. Zoom and Ven

    I’ve been reading Diog’s stuff for years now – certainly prior to 2010 – and never once thought he was a Labor voter.
    He’s always been ‘a curse on both your houses’ type of guy.

    The hint is in the name, Diogenes. But cynophiles are not all bad. My dog is very much in favour of them 🙂

  3. Saul Griffith with what the Victorian election should be about (+ the renewables roll out):

    As an engineer I see the climate problem simply. We have a collection of machines – some burn fossil fuels, others don’t. We need to stop buying the ones that burn poisons and instead buy electric ones and run them on clean electricity. Live well, breathe easy, pay less.

    From January, new homes and most new commercial buildings in Victoria will be built all-electric, locking in lower bills and lower emissions. From March, when a gas hot water system dies it must be replaced with an efficient electric one, so existing homes get the savings too. And when a renter’s gas heater fails, the landlord must install efficient electric heating. The tenant’s bills get slashed, not just the owner-occupier’s.

    Those laws are now on the ballot because the gas industry has the money and power to unduly influence our politics. Before November’s election, the Liberals, the Nationals and One Nation are all promising to scrap them before they start. They say they are defending your “right to choose”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/oct/15/victorian-election-gas-industry-right-to-choose-one-nation-coalition

  6. There are a few that should go before Chalmers, starting with Tanya P, Amanda Rishworth, Mark Butler and Jenny McCallister.

  7. There is talk a reshuffle coming.

    Thomas, the funny thing is with all the polling that I don’t think public confidence in polling has ever been lower. But they seem to make for easy to write political pieces in the media, so we’ll keep getting them.

  8. … and if there is a reshuffle, can he possibly move on Anika “birthday parties” Wells too.

    I’m getting tired hearing of this politician who seems to have her snout in the re-imbursements trough with just about every holiday/party event she engages in. Didn’t she learn from last December?

    Billing the taxpayers $3700 for a trip to Adelaide where she “apparently” visited Don Farrell on political business despite him now refuting that this occurred, is seriously wearing thin.

    This is the money of the workers (the taxpayers). Pull your head in Anika.

  10. Boerwar says:
    Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 6:53 pm
    Nadia relaying Joyce’s leadershit?
    Really?
    ======
    Yes really – quoting the interview which is publicly available online.

  11. The Wombat says:
    Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 6:58 pm
    There is talk a reshuffle coming.

    Thomas, the funny thing is with all the polling that I don’t think public confidence in polling has ever been lower. But they seem to make for easy to write political pieces in the media, so we’ll keep getting them.
    =========
    With polling Wombat,

    The papers sell out very quickly, especially the Monday Australian after a Newspoll drops Sunday night.
    The comments section on most new sites go bonkers when a poll drops.
    PB posters are always up for a “new poll” chat.
    KB’s “x” feed goes bonkers when he drops a new poll (ie: 5-10 thousand views within 24 hours)

    This is the reason why we get a lot of polls now – they sell papers & clicks.

  12. Don’t worry about Albo getting rid of Chalmers, I wouldn’t be shocked if Chalmers just walked.

    The surpluses in his CV, achieved through ruthless means would see him get any private sector job he’d want.

  13. Wells is taking on the internet barons.

    Of course she’s under attack.

    It’s always amusing to read overseas articles, where she’s portrayed as a crusader.

  16. Tried giving Anika and indirect lecture on the failures of the ABC recently, Nadia, explaining that because the ABC fails to do its job in providing local news in the country (the private media having abandoned the country years ago), people get their local news from social media. If we got fewer stories on crossdressing free-Palestine alpaca farmers, and more on stuff like local interests like local schools, mining and agribusiness, people might not spend so much time on social media.

    Hope she enjoyed the flight.

  18. zoomster says:
    Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 7:05 pm
    Wells is taking on the internet barons.

    Of course she’s under attack…..
    ==============
    … and yet the rest of us are supposed to shut up and not talk about her spending $$$$ of taxpayer money on frivolities such as “birthday parties”. She’s the only politician who’se name seems to keep coming up with all this “lunching on the public purse” stuff.
    I don’t see Jason Clare, Andrew Charlton, Katy Gallagher being dragged through the re-imbursements gotcha game – most likely because they are prudent with public money.

    I’m tired of hearing about Anika Wells all the time. It’s getting to the stage it’s one thing after another.

    Hopefully someone steps in and tells her to pull her head in. Enough.

  20. ‘I don’t see Jason Clare, Andrew Charlton, Katy Gallagher being dragged through the re-imbursements gotcha game – most likely because they are prudent with public money.’

    Or because they’re not upsetting the people who own the news.

  21. On Jordan Steele John, he has not been charged and everyone is entitled to a presumption of innocence.

    That being said, if he is facing allegations from seven different women, he absolutely must stand aside and has no place voting in the Senate until he is cleared.

    If he is not cleared then IMO his position would be untenable.

  23. Thomas Brian Muttersays:
    Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 6:44 pm
    We genuinely are in an unprecedented era of high frequency polling.

    Not only have there been over 150 federal polls so far, but there have also been 5 MRP models outside of the election campaign period, and regular polling series for states like South Australia and Tasmania.

    TBM
    You are true about unprecedented era of high frequency.
    IMO, the main reasons are

    1. The rise of ON
    2. ‘Get Albo’ campaign i.e. the media thinks that by showing Albanese in poor light, they can get him to resign or make AL Parliamentary wing to dump as Leader.
    Why?
    Since, 2010 all leaders are deposed by parliamentary wing from both sides of politics

  25. I’m tired of hearing about Anika Wells all the time. It’s getting to the stage it’s one thing after another.

    You could have sidestepped this problem by not reading News Corp or listening to talk radio. Neither Nine Newspapers nor the ABC looks to have thought the latest developments newsworthy. As you appear not to be aware, this all relates to something that happened well over a year ago.

  26. That being said, if he is facing allegations from seven different women, he absolutely must stand aside and has no place voting in the Senate until he is cleared.

    I understand from reporting that he has said he will stand down pending the outcome of the investigation.

  27. zoomster says:
    Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 7:29 pm
    ‘I don’t see Jason Clare, Andrew Charlton, Katy Gallagher being dragged through the re-imbursements gotcha game – most likely because they are prudent with public money.’

    Or because they’re not upsetting the people who own the news.
    ==============
    OK. So as a politician who may be under the pump, then do the right thing and tidy up your finances instead of leaving yourself open to attack from the agencies which may wish to bring you down.

    She leaves herself open to attack. Surely the warning in December she received was enough of a work-out, with sports freebies and other rubbish.

    Flying from Brisbane to Adelaide to attend birthday parties and billing the taxpayer is wearing thin, especially when she claims she met Don Farrell and his own diary refutes this.

    If you wish to defend this, it’s your business, but I’m getting a bit tired of Anika Wells MP.

  28. sprocket_says:
    Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 7:35 pm
    SL and anyone else interested in the energy economics of Australia, and the potential impact of data centres, this interview with ex-AGL scientist Tim Nelson explains it all..

    https://youtu.be/T9iU2_mbyJ0?si=nQNuRp-s3hI4uQJD
    _______________

    Thanks, sprocket, I will definitely watch that. Tim Nelson is our most well credentialled energy economist, which is why he was chosen to lead the panel for the NEM Wholesale Settings Review (aka known as the Nelson Review). The recommendations of which will be implemented next year.

  30. William, I was pointing to several very significant local stories that received zero coverage, including several drug/organised crime murders, one particularly spectacular, and nasty fatal crashes on the Bruce highway, causing prolonged closures of the Bruce and signicant disruption (a three hundred kilometre dirt road detour for me, including a few splattered feral pigs), this affected thousands of people. It’s like these things didn’t even happen. There’s zero media coverage. And that’s a large part of why folks are so dependent on social media. It is the news. It’s what you’ve got. I mean, literally, I had to ring my daughter to look up Facebook to work out how to get home.

  32. nadia @ #978 Thursday, October 15th, 2026 – 6:06 pm

    Looks like News24 got in first Fess, about 4 hours ago, but who cares.

    Samantha Maiden dropped the “Feels on Wheels” article at about 2.30pm PB time.

    Link: https://www.news.com.au/national/western-australia/greens-senator-jordon-steelejohn-on-leave-after-allegations-of-inappropriate-comments-to-women/news-story/888a5b3f4ccecaf25dea2adb405c4d76

    The link you posted from News 24 literally says the SMH broke the story about JSJ! Do you even read the stuff that you post?

  33. But they could do that if they weren’t busy clogging up their news pages with reportage on woke alpaca farmers? It’s not because they don’t actually have much in the way of resources these days?

  34. There is another concerning question about the J S-J case that needs to be answered by the WA Greens organisational branch. Why has this taken so long to come to light?? From the ABC article:

    The letter states the group has been made aware of “multiple allegations” against the senator that span from 2017 to 2025.

    Getting a complaint from one person might be sour grapes. But 7 different women over eight years without anyone noticing or bothering to formally investigate them? WTF were they thinking??

    If the first one had been investigated properly and acted upon, one way or another, the other complaints might never have occurred, and the Greens would not be in their current predicament.

    We shall see.

  35. I keep abreast of all perspectives

    I don’t actually think you read anything though, or at least not past the headlines. Annika Wells could pull her head in all the way to the shell, it’s not going to stop News Corp hyping up new angles on stuff that happened nearly 18 months ago.

  36. Fair enough Fess. I can see the paragraph you’re referring too….

    “Senator Steele-John was previously forced to issue a public apology after telling columnist Gemma Tognini to “shut the f**k up” and calling her a “right wing nut job”.

    The Sydney Morning Herald broke the news of Senator Steele-John’s leave of absence on Thursday shortly before question time in the Senate.”
    ===
    You were correct on this Fess.

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