Resolve Strategic: Labor 28, One Nation 27, Coalition 24 (open thread)

Weaker personal ratings for Anthony Albanese, but little change on voting intention in the monthly Resolve Strategic poll.

The latest monthly federal poll from Resolve Strategic in Nine Newspapers records little change on voting intention, with Labor steady on 28%, One Nation up one to 27%, the Coalition up one to 24% and the Greens down one to 11%. Anthony Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is down three points to 34%, while his poor and very poor rating is steady on 53%; Angus Taylor is respectively down one to 39% and down three to 30%; and Pauline Hanson is respectively up one to 47% and down four to 37%. The now established three-way preferred prime minister question has Albanese down three to 29%, Taylor up two to 21% and Pauline Hanson down one to 25%. The poll was conducted Sunday to Saturday from a sample of 2250; state results for Victoria, and perhaps also New South Wales, should follow over the coming days.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,636 thoughts on “Resolve Strategic: Labor 28, One Nation 27, Coalition 24 (open thread)”

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  1. Douglas and Milkosays:
    Thursday, September 17, 2026 at 8:06 pm

    How do you feel about Holden Kingswoods? Or 1980’s model Commodores?

    ————-

    I feel that Ford generally made cars for which the engine and gear box would last forever, but everything else would break. Holden mostly did the opposite.

  2. Chifley was raised by his widowed grandfather between ages 5-13 and according to Bob Ellis (and therefore probably not) was treated as a slave doing the farm work.

  3. Some hopeium. My own view is less optimistic.

    Republicans have a shit ton of money, way more than Democrats, and can use that to spread their message in every at risk state or district in play.

    In Georgia, Republican strategists are privately discussing whether the Senate race has drifted beyond the party’s reach.

    In Kansas, Vice President JD Vance campaigned for a Senate Republican, even though a Democrat there has not been elected to the chamber since 1932.

    In Nebraska, a new Republican super PAC just sprang up to spend to defend a billionaire incumbent.

    And across the country, President Trump’s political operation is suddenly investing in what once appeared to be bright-red Senate races and House districts, including several in Texas that his party claimed to have safely gerrymandered only a year ago.

    Less than seven weeks before the midterm elections, the political environment has deteriorated so badly for Republicans that the battlefield now extends deep into states and districts Mr. Trump carried three times, often by double digits.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/17/us/politics/midterms-map-republicans-democrats.html

  4. Douglas and Milkosays:
    Thursday, September 17, 2026 at 8:12 pm

    Very genuine question: Do you expect women to be able to change spark plugs?

    —————

    I only have sons to teach, but if I had girls, absolutely. I also think it is a very good idea for everyone, male or female to have as much practical skill at as many different things as they can manage.

    Saves lots of money, if nothing else.

    Also, not being stranded on the side of a highway for hours in the middle of the night because you actually know how to change a flat tyre is a very good idea.

    Particularly if female.

  5. It seems to be regurgitated endlessly (by some) as a fact but I havent seen any evidence so far that “thousands” have died as a consequence of the low level of payments from jobseeker.
    I reckon that I would meet perhaps 100 jobseeker recipients per month and have done so for several decades and dont know of a single case of death from poverty among them. Most of them seem to age as much and as well as other people, in fact there are so many safety nets both government and charity I believe they might do even better than their peers.
    Of course, the conditions that cause them to be unemployed are often ultimately fatal, and no level of benefit would counteract those conditions.

  6. SF

    Also, not being stranded on the side of a highway for hours in the middle of the night because you actually know how to change a flat tyre is a very good idea.

    Der. I can do that too. and you should try it at 2 am between Mopra Rock and Coonabarabran, on a Moonless night. I tried very hard not to drop those wheel / lug nuts into the long grass.

    But what of the many women who were not in a position to have someone teach them these skills? It may not be your problem, but you seemed quite dismissive of those who did not have them?

  7. Douglas and Milko @ #1624 Thursday, September 17th, 2026 – 8:41 pm

    SF

    Also, not being stranded on the side of a highway for hours in the middle of the night because you actually know how to change a flat tyre is a very good idea.

    Der. I can do that too. and you should try it at 2 am between Mopra Rock and Coonabarabran, on a Moonless night. I tried very hard not to drop those lug nuts into the long grass.

    But what of the many women who were not in a position to have someone teach them these skills? It may not be your problem, but you seemed quite dismissive of those who did not have them?

    Google it. Seriously.

  8. frednk says:
    Thursday, September 17, 2026 at 8:27 pm

    Canada is not proposing free movement of people.

    Canada made major cuts to its immigration targets to slow population growth and ease the housing crisis, as reported by The Guardian.Permanent Resident ReductionsReduced permanent resident admissions from 500,000 to 395,000 for 2025.Set further drops to 380,000 in 2026 and 365,000 in 2027.Aimed to keep permanent resident arrivals under 1% of the total population

    Google

  9. Got an email from Angus.

    Labor’s policy on migration isn’t as good as Angus’ policy on migration, which hasn’t been decided yet, but at least Angus has a plan and Labor hasn’t.

  10. Douglas and Milkosays:
    Thursday, September 17, 2026 at 8:41 pm
    SF

    Also, not being stranded on the side of a highway for hours in the middle of the night because you actually know how to change a flat tyre is a very good idea.
    ===============================================
    Der. I can do that too. and you should try it at 2 am between Mopra Rock and Coonabarabran, on a Moonless night.

    =================================================

    Contact Paul Wild Observatory, Narrabri before trying that. I believe they can operate the Mopra Rock radio telescope from there now.

  11. I once arrived a little late (and a bit dishevelled) to a council meeting and explained I’d had to do some emergency fencing because a horse had escaped.

    The idea that a female could do her own fencing was obviously a revelation to the men in the room.

    However, being surrounded by car obsessed males since birth, I have relied on looking helpless and letting someone else do the work when it comes to cars (also I got very sick of bleeding brakes when I was a teenager….)

    I did build a very nice flight of stone stairs for my son’s wedding, however, complete with retaining wall and a landing.

  12. Douglas and Milkosays:
    Thursday, September 17, 2026 at 8:41 pm

    Der. I can do that too. and you should try it at 2 am between Mopra Rock and Coonabarabran, on a Moonless night. I tried very hard not to drop those wheel / lug nuts into the long grass.

    But what of the many women who were not in a position to have someone teach them these skills? It may not be your problem, but you seemed quite dismissive of those who did not have them?

    ————

    I don’t think I was being dismissive, but apologise if anything I said sounded so. Nobody taught me much practical either. Mostly because I was too stubborn to listen to people who knew better than I did. If anyone else hasn’t had the opportunity to have someone teach them practical things, then YouTube is your best friend.

    By the way, the comment directed at Boerwar about the spark plug, was because he was behaving like an complete ass, as is his want.

  13. zoomstersays:
    Thursday, September 17, 2026 at 9:06 pm

    The idea that a female could do her own fencing was obviously a revelation to the men in the room.

    However, being surrounded by car obsessed males since birth, I have relied on looking helpless and letting someone else do the work when it comes to cars (also I got very sick of bleeding brakes when I was a teenager….)

    I did build a very nice flight of stone stairs for my son’s wedding, however, complete with retaining wall and a landing.

    —————-

    My sister has renovated her entire house, without any help from her husband, who is functionally useless at anything involving a tool. He seems oddly proud of this fact too.

  14. My wife took a job some 30 years ago in a very male dominated workplace as an HR and training manager and not surprisingly struggled to be taken seriously until one day after a conference, one of the alpha males had a flat battery with his car, and it was the jumper leads that she pulled out of her car and operated that got him going again. After that, no one would dare speak a disparaging word against her.

  15. Hmmm. Has anyone (besides me) noticed that new Labor’s migration policy does not actually seem to be about reducing migration at all?

    It seems to me to be a policy designed to give a short-term NOM “sugar hit”. Reducing student visas, student family visas, backpacker visas, and deporting those who overstay their visas is all well and good … but it does nothing (AFAIK) to reduce the actual migration numbers – which will stay at current record high and unsustainable levels.

    It seems to me that Labor is just fudging the NOM in the short term, and is not actually reducing permanent migration in the long term at all.

    Am I wrong?

  16. @Player One

    Uhh, yeah, what Labor is proposing is that there be a shift in Migration numbers to those we actually do kind of need to function as a first world country.

    Seems like the only people who would have a problem with that is those who say “Eww, icky poo brown people! Me vote Pauline!”

  17. Entropy

    Contact Paul Wild Observatory, Narrabri before trying that. I believe they can operate the Mopra Rock radio telescope from there now.

    They did then too, although it still required us astronomers at the site, hence the flat tyre.

    But seriously – ask the duty engineer to come to Mopra to change a tyre for me?

  18. Apologies if already posted, but Resolve NSW seems to have belatedly arrived, without a headline as yet.

    ALP 29%
    Coalition 24%
    One Nation 25%
    Greens 11%

    So basically, ICAC appears to have had zero impact on voting intention. Coalition up a point, others all static. I was expecting to see One Nation get a bit of a bump out of ICAC. Very meh.

  19. Kirsdarke

    Uhh, yeah, what Labor is proposing is that there be a shift in Migration numbers to those we actually do kind of need to function as a first world country.

    But a “shift” in migration numbers is not actually a “reduction” in migration numbers, is it?

    Seems like the only people who would have a problem with that is those who say “Eww, icky poo brown people! Me vote Pauline!”

    Seems like the only people who would NOT have a problem with that is those who think our current migration numbers are fine. Or possibly even a bit too low. “Big Australia”, anyone?

    But by all means go with the “icky poo brown people” rhetoric if that works for you. It doesn’t for me.

  20. Like many parents I taught my three girls to drive. One thing I made them do was jack up the car, remove a wheel, and then put it back on. All three grumbled because “their friends didn’t have to do that”.

    It’s a different story now, one has just installed skirting boards in every room.

  21. Funny thing is, whilst I’m probably one of the louder voices here against our current model of immigration, I reckon I’d also be one of the few “big Australia” advocates here, too. “Big Australia” is very unfashionable. It’s just i don’t think everyone moving to Sydney and Melbourne is a sensible model of big Australia. We need to be developing our secondary cities, mostly coastal cities of population of about 150 000 to 500 000.

  22. Oh for fuck sake, no, I am not okay with high migration levels to the extent that they’re overflowing the boat, but I do insist that there be enough to keep the boat afloat.

    Those that know how to operate it, care for those on board, navigate, keep everyone fed, clean the rooms, run the machinery, treat those in the medical bay, etc. If we do not have the people already here trained to run this country like that, then we either need to train young people to do that and ensure that they do so (which mysteriously seems to not happen whenever Liberal governments get elected and slash education budgets), or we need to invite skilled migrants who can do that.

  23. So … to get back to the actual point … am I wrong in thinking that Labor’s big announcement today looks a lot more like a “Let’s shuffle the deckchairs on the Titanic” policy than a genuine migration policy?

    We could ask Albo, I guess … just as soon as he gets back from the US … 🙁


  24. FUBAR says:
    Thursday, September 17, 2026 at 8:56 pm

    frednk says:
    Thursday, September 17, 2026 at 8:27 pm

    Canada is not proposing free movement of people.

    Canada made major cuts to its immigration targets to slow population growth and ease the housing crisis, as reported by The Guardian.Permanent Resident ReductionsReduced permanent resident admissions from 500,000 to 395,000 for 2025.Set further drops to 380,000 in 2026 and 365,000 in 2027.Aimed to keep permanent resident arrivals under 1% of the total population

    Google

    Didn’t look or listen to the video did you?

  25. frednk says:
    Thursday, September 17, 2026 at 10:30 pm

    I don’t have half an hour to listen.

    You claimed there would be free movement. Canada has cut immigration significantly and continues to do so. That is not free movement.

  26. FUBAR
    I said Canada was considering free movement of of people between Europe and Canada. If you had bothered to listen you would have found that confirmed.

  27. Ashasays:
    Thursday, September 17, 2026 at 11:24 am
    Ven, what does them being women have to do with anything? A nasty person is a nasty person, regardless of their gender.

    Not that I’d consider the use of swear words to be an indicator of whether somebody is nice or not. This is Australia. Everyone fucking swears.

    You have not answered my question. Just give examples of Labor women swearing in public while accusing some of wrong action.


  28. Landlord of the Year says:
    Thursday, September 17, 2026 at 11:04 pm

    Canada is in discussions with the EU for associate membership of the EU not full membership.

    Very good, your a step ahead of fubar, if you had listened to the video, which was of Mark Carney’s speech, you would have discovered the vision of what that means.

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