YouGov: Labor 26, One Nation 30, Coalition 18 (open thread)

Another strong poll result for One Nation in the wake of its Secret Harbour by-election triumph.

The fortnightly YouGov/News24 Pulse poll finds One Nation returning to its June peak, the Coalition only one point up on where it was at the time, and Labor three points lower for its equal worst result of the term. Labor is down three on last fortnight to 26%, with One Nation up four to 30%, the Coalition down three to 18% and the Greens steady on 12%. Labor’s two-party lead over One Nation narrows from 56-44 to 53-47, and its lead over the Coalition is in from 53-47 to 52-48.

Movements on leaders’ ratings are rather more modest: Anthony Albanese is up one on approval to 36% and steady on 59% disapproval; Angus Taylor is up three to 36% and down one to 48%; Albanese’s lead over Taylor is in from 44-37 to 43-39; and his lead over Hanson is in from 52-37 to 51-40. Questions on immigration including a finding that 36% think One Nation would be best to manage it, compared with 18% each for Labor and the Coalition. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to this Tuesday from a sample of 1510.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

890 thoughts on “YouGov: Labor 26, One Nation 30, Coalition 18 (open thread)”

Comments Page 18 of 18
1 … 17 18
  1. “shutting down on the economy for a bad chest cold”

    More than just a bad chest cold:

    “22,315 people in Australia have died from or with COVID-19, as registered by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) by 29 February 2024. ”

    Imagine how many would have died had they not implemented sensible isolation policies.

    People are still dying from it. Last week I attended a funeral of a friend who contracted COVID. After his stay in hospital, he never recovered and experienced a rapid decline.

    I’m still surprised that people can’t see how deadly the virus was.

  2. I for one would prefer to actually be able to call a taxi or rideshare vehicle when I need one rather than be stranded because all the drivers have been deported.

    In what universe is that a job that isn’t needed???

    Likewise delivery drivers. FUBAR, have you seriously never gotten anything delivered before?

  3. Leadersays:
    Friday, September 11, 2026 at 7:54 pm
    “shutting down on the economy for a bad chest cold”

    More than just a bad chest cold:

    “22,315 people in Australia have died from or with COVID-19, as registered by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) by 29 February 2024. ”

    Imagine how many would have died had they not implemented sensible isolation policies.
    ================================================

    Yes, when 4 people die putting in insulation it requires a RC. When 10’s of thousand die they believe we should of done nothing. That is the true cooker mentality.

  4. Oh dear…..
    An Alex Antic victory in the Liberal state presidency race is poised to trigger a push for an extraordinary federal takeover of the enfeebled South Australian branch.
    Senior Liberals have told The Advertiser they would move for the federal arm to seize control and install administrators to run the party’s state administration if Senator Antic wins a September 19 presidential ballot.
    But sources on the other side of the party said Antic’s opponents would struggle to come up with necessary grounds for an intervention.
    One senior party figure even insisted a federal takeover was on the cards regardless of the presidential result, arguing Senator Antic’s control of member ranks was polluting the party.

  5. I am starting to wonder if the famed ‘October Surprise’ will be a stock market crash. The markets have seemingly never liked October and both 1929 and 1987 were October.

  6. “Likewise delivery drivers. FUBAR, have you seriously never gotten anything delivered before?”

    I can certainly see any driver who delivered to Fubar and was told to go back to their country of origin. Not being willing to do that delivery again.

  7. Fuel prices are on track to climb a further 20-30 cents per litre over the coming weeks, after the escalating Middle East conflict pushed the global oil price to its highest since mid-May.
    As investors dumped stocks and bonds in an increasingly febrile environment, Donald Trump’s promise to give every US adult citizen a US$5,000 “dividend” after the November midterms if Republicans win added to alarm around the parlous state of the country’s finances.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/sep/11/australian-fuel-prices-set-to-rise-by-30c-as-global-markets-react-to-deadly-cocktail

  8. Voting shake-up to favour the Greens in Melbourne’s next lord mayoral race

    https://archive.is/zVNcU#selection-207.0-207.74 (The Age)

    “The changes also include the abolition of group voting tickets. The City of Melbourne was the last remaining jurisdiction in the country still using the complicated preference-swapping system.

    The Greens, who negotiated the amendments to the act that were supported by Labor MPs, did not secure support to scrap the contentious rule that hands businesses two votes in council elections.

    They also fell short in a bid to ban donations from gambling and property developers. Banning donations from property developers was a key recommendation from the anti-corruption watchdog’s Operation Sandon report into a scandal that engulfed the City of Casey.

    Both amendments were voted down by Labor and Coalition MPs.”

  9. I can foresee a few potential surprises over the next few months, but the most plausible seem to relate to global debt, financial markets and AI investment.

  10. New report reveals Trump’s been lying about Iran war since the start

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2026/9/10/800096563/news/new-report-reveals-trump-iran-war-lies/

    President Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have spent the last few months bragging that they’ve decimated Iran’s ballistic missile capability. But a new report says otherwise.

    According to The Wall Street Journal, intelligence sources said that Iran is back to producing ballistic missiles at several underground sites, including the Khojir facility in the southeastern region of the country. They also said that Iran is currently attempting to build new underground assembly facilities.

    Mostly Interested would say “what is new about it?”

  11. China has just tipped around $45 billion’s worth of recapitalization into its largest banks and insurers. This is a tiny drop in the ocean of outstanding property debts.

  12. Freo kicked six in a quarter compared with five during a full game last week. Still three quarters to go but they are definitely up and about.

    I wish them well.

  13. Ashasays:
    Friday, September 11, 2026 at 7:58 pm
    I for one would prefer to actually be able to call a taxi or rideshare vehicle when I need one rather than be stranded because all the drivers have been deported.

    In what universe is that a job that isn’t needed???

    Likewise delivery drivers. FUBAR, have you seriously never gotten anything delivered before?

    Don’t you know that FUBAR is a self-made man like never before?
    Some say, He started walking as soon as he was born and started talking at the age of 6 months and handled gun at the age of 5?
    If he been the Australian PM, Australia would have had golden age of governance and would have been the envy of the world like it was during Howard and ATM years.

  14. Whenever I hear people fearmonger over Labor’s chances of victory in 2027/8, I think about this election and what people were saying about Labor’s chances of victory before it.

  15. Pegasussays:
    Friday, September 11, 2026 at 8:16 pm
    Voting shake-up to favour the Greens in Melbourne’s next lord mayoral race

    https://archive.is/zVNcU#selection-207.0-207.74 (The Age)

    “The changes also include the abolition of group voting tickets. The City of Melbourne was the last remaining jurisdiction in the country still using the complicated preference-swapping system.

    Let me put it on record Pegasus.
    Greens will not be the beneficiary of the shake up. Atmost they may win one more seat, if at all.

  16. ‘Henry Pike arrived at Gina Rinehart’s beachfront mansion near Noosa expecting a relaxed chat over a New Year’s lunch. Instead, the young, socially conservative Queensland Liberal found himself being asked to pick a side.

    The billionaire mining magnate, who had previously thrown the odd bit of financial support behind Pike, wanted him to distance himself from his friend and fellow right-winger Andrew Hastie and move closer to Pauline Hanson’s One Nation.

    The word “traitor” was used repeatedly by Rinehart throughout, according to several sources who received a briefing about the January 9 meeting. It is a word – referencing Hastie’s role in exposing war crimes allegations against Ben Roberts-Smith – which could now define the new war for ascendancy on the right of Australian politics.

    Gina Rinehart invited Queensland Liberal Henry Pike to her Sunshine Coast home for a quiet chat.

    Pike was polite, friends say, but adamant he would not betray Hastie in favour of Rinehart’s sponsorship. The financial rewards on offer were clear by the surroundings: Rinehart’s $34 million Webb House, which sits on 2000 square metres, touches the sand at the exclusive Sunshine Beach.

    But what the MP for the nearby seat of Bowman saw next was proof of a nexus between Rinehart and the surging populist party that now echoes Rinehart’s “traitor” line in its wildly popular satirical Please Explain cartoons.

    Emerging from the bedrooms of the sprawling mansion in peak summer, were Hanson, Barnaby Joyce, and One Nation strategist James Ashby. A camera for breakfast TV crosses was set up nearby for Joyce as he and his new colleagues held a summer get-together at Rinehart’s holiday home.’

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/traitor-the-inside-story-of-rinehart-s-role-in-the-hastie-hanson-feud-20260910-p60w56.html

    What a motley crew: Rinehart, Hanson, Joyce & Ashby! Full marks to Harris and Sakkal for bringing these matters to the public’s attention. The full article is well worth a read. And the sooner Roberts-Smith is tried, the better for all concerned.

  17. Zoomster

    One doesn’t have to be a member of the Labor party to understand that not chopping trees down is better for the environment – and the koalas.

    Seriously?

    So Labor’s latest policy brain fart essentially comes down to “Nice forest you have there. Shame if something should happen to it”.

    How on earth did we come to this?

  18. Most conservationists in most countries would kill for another 170,000 hectares added to a national park which will connect existing reserves to create a 476,000 ha national park. It is a fantastic outcome.

    In Australia?

    Whinge, whine, snark, whinge, whine, snark, a split vote from the Greens and the utterly predictable anti-Labor slags from P1.


  19. Player One says:
    Friday, September 11, 2026 at 5:55 pm

    So no-one – Labor member or otherwise – is willing to try and explain how an existing forest can magically be used to produce billions of dollars worth of new carbon credits?

    Isn’t not chopping down the trees the issues. Does it really matter why?

  20. FUBAR @ #845 Friday, September 11th, 2026 – 7:12 pm

    zoomster says:
    Friday, September 11, 2026 at 7:08 pm

    Forests need to be managed. That includes fuel reduction burns and thinning where nature hasn’t done its job.

    Four times as much forest in Australia is lost by illegal clearing by landholders, as compared to felling in State Forests. Google maps satellite views show this incontrovertible fact.

    Also, natural forests are self thinning. Nature always does its job. That’s the nature of things.

  21. Happytogether
    @ChonlozB
    **James Bond — Five Bonds, One Legendary Moment**

    (photo of)
    Sean Connery, Roger Moore, Timothy Dalton, Pierce Brosnan & Daniel Craig — five iconic 007s from different generations, together in one unforgettable frame.

    #JamesBond #TimothyDalton #PierceBrosnan #DanielCraig #007
    11:41 AM · Sep 9, 2026
    347K
    Views

    https://x.com/ChonlozB/status/2097636595713331580

  22. Heh, seeing the names of these James Bond actors brings so many memories of gags from the radio show I’m Sorry I Haven’t A Clue.

    Barry Cryer frequently making jokes like this from the fake dictionary segments.

    “Mishmash” – when Sean Connery can’t make it to church.
    “Lambshank” – when one of Sean Connery’s sheep drowned.

    Tim Brooke-Taylor doing this joke in one of the deliberate name-dropping rounds.

    “You already have a lot of children. Do you intend to Roger Moore with your wife?”

    And Rob Brydon saying this in one of the boasting rounds.

    “I’ve got a Pierced Brosnan.”

  23. newy boysays:
    Friday, September 11, 2026 at 9:58 pm
    Suck on that, bunnies!
    _______________________
    It will be all quiet in the Albanese bedroom tonight.

  24. Best things in life are Freo.
    I was at the game and it’s an experience.
    I’m not as heavily invested in Fremantle as some but I admire enormously those who ride the roller coaster.
    More power to them .

  25. Kirsdarke @ 11.33am
    re: US Polling.
    I don’t believe that the problem is US polling.
    I believe that the polling may be accurate, but the US Electoral System has been corrupted, in such a way, to disenfranchise a large number of voters.
    The recent measures, by Republicans, to make postal voting more difficult is a significant factor in this issue.
    Reduced polling places, long queues and an uncertainty that after being in a queue for hours an elector’s right to vote may be denied.
    For some electors, having to make an economic decision to take a day off work, which is probably unpaid leave, could be a factor in the extremely low turn out of electors.
    Although, encouraged by current US polling trends I wouldn’t be surprised if the result doesn’t match the polling.

  26. From Kos:

    “Icarus syndrome. Hanson has spent a year climbing and has started to believe there is no ceiling or a limit to what she is permitted to say.

    She has picked a fight with a war veteran. Not over his politics. Over his service. A cartoon pinned to her own account calls Andrew Hastie a traitor for giving evidence, under subpoena and under oath, in the Ben Roberts-Smith case. She will not take it down. She cannot win this. Here is why.

    Australia has lost trust in almost every institution it has. Parliament, the media, the churches, the banks, the universities. The one that has survived is the military. The ADF sits at or near the top of every trust measure in the country, and it does so across every voting bloc. One Nation’s entire pitch is contempt for institutions.

    But this is the one institution its own base still treats as sacred. Her voters are older, regional and outer suburban. They live in RSL towns. (The RSL has condemned her statement) Anzac Day is not a political event for them. It is a family spiritual one.

    Australians draw a clear line between a soldier’s politics and a soldier’s service. You can attack Hastie’s politics all day. Plenty do. Calling his service treason crosses that line, and crossing it puts Hanson on the wrong side of the values her base believes it is defending.

    Hastie led SAS soldiers in Afghanistan. He was subpoenaed. He gave evidence. In the moral universe of her own supporters, that is not treachery. That is duty.

    There is also a difference between standing with Roberts-Smith and declaring that the soldiers who testified against him are traitors. Many of her supporters do the first. Almost none want the second. The second puts her at war with the SAS witnesses, the courts and the rule of law, on behalf of a man who lost his defamation case and now faces trial.

    Then there is the rented vote. Most of One Nation’s growth over the past year has been rented from ex-Coalition and ex-Labor voters angry about the cost of living, housing etc.

    The true base is closer to 15 per cent. The renters did not sign up for a vendetta against a decorated veteran. Every minute Hanson spends on Roberts-Smith is a minute she is not spending on the grievances that lifted her. Worse, it reminds the renters why they kept their distance for 25 years.
    Hastie is also the worst possible target. He is the alternative for precisely the voters One Nation is renting: conservative, outer suburban, regional, sceptical of the Liberal establishment.
    A fight with him does not split that vote. It consolidates it, and it hands disaffected conservatives a permission structure to go home, especially in his seat.

    The ovation in the Coalition party room is telling. So is Barnaby Joyce, the one person in One Nation who actually understands the bush, stepping away from her statement.

    Hastie says they picked the wrong veteran. It is worse than that. They picked the wrong institution.
    This is how the ceiling works. Voters do not need to disagree with Hanson on everything. They just need her to say something that reminds them of why they did not support her in the past. Attacking a veteran’s service in this country could be one of those moments.

    Icarus did not fall because he could not fly. He fell because he believed the rules did not apply to him.”

  27. Fix real estate for first home buyers by massively increasing supply. This will be done through reform of planning and development legislation and regulation to force the release of large amounts of new first homeowner land and housing. And build the infrastructure and services to support this.

    It was a little disconcerting, an out of body moment, to be nodding and agreeing with Fubar.

    And it is truly a delightful fantasy.

    Except:

    * These suburbs are not sustainable, they are money sinks subsidised by other parts of the economy, and done the way we currently do them also expand the boundaries of the city further and further away and into surrounding natural resources.

    * Most of the infrastructure needs to be funded by state or local government and the feds have all the money, at best developer contributions cover the first period of some of the development before the infrastructure bomb hits in particular the local government.

    * Unless we develop a new model and vastly change the taxation of land it is more lucrative for developers to sit on land and pay interest and other minor holding costs. There could be land suitable for housing for an extra million people in every city in Australia, and lets imagine a fairy godmother magics the needed infrastructure and funds the services, if private developers are going to be responsible for the sale of the land, most of this land is still not going to have houses on it in 20 years time. I know one developer who was not getting the demand they’d modelled for land sales in Perth. Did they drop the price, don’t be stupid they stopped selling the land a nd waited until conditions changed and restarted selling the land at a big markup having made quite the capital gain three or so years later. Win win win for every one, eveyone except home buyers, what there was not any of was cheaper or more available land. They don’t accidentally control the release of land to maximise the scarcity of land.

    * People here have correctly pointed out that looking at current state, which we can’t change in the short term, and some things take a medium term to turn around, that Govt can’t build houses (and of course govt isn’t supposed to do things for the poors only the wealthy) and there aren’t enough tradies. If you are going to have the government vend land as fast as possible into the market, you are going to run into this problem. Not only do we need the government to vend the land, so private developers don’t sit on it, govt needs to set a scale up and have a guaranteed release schedule so the trades can scale up and know they are going to have work not over one or two years but a decade or more. There is going to be 20,ooo additional blocks(or better still apartments with a new better model than strata companies) at x price next year, 40,000 the year after, then 60,000 each year for fifteen years. Obviously number crunchers would need to do the numbers they are just illustrative of the point if you need 4000 extra tradies you need to give them a certainy of work. Currently even in relatively good times tradies can’t be sure the builder they work for is going to pay them or continue to exist into the next month, let alone scale up with apprentices etc to manage a long term stream of work.

    * Finally I’m all for reform of planning and development law, I think we do it terribly, but usually this is code for developers destroying the environment and providing really really bad suburbs for people to live in, while maximising profit and leaving infrastructure bombs for local govt to fund. If the changes are to require high density living where cars aren’t required (and are actually quite expensive to accomodate) and high speed quality mass transit and amenities are all availabe then I’m all for it. But I suspect that wasn’t the vision.

Comments Page 18 of 18
1 … 17 18

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *