YouGov: Labor 26, One Nation 30, Coalition 18 (open thread)

Another strong poll result for One Nation in the wake of its Secret Harbour by-election triumph.

The fortnightly YouGov/News24 Pulse poll finds One Nation returning to its June peak, the Coalition only one point up on where it was at the time, and Labor three points lower for its equal worst result of the term. Labor is down three on last fortnight to 26%, with One Nation up four to 30%, the Coalition down three to 18% and the Greens steady on 12%. Labor’s two-party lead over One Nation narrows from 56-44 to 53-47, and its lead over the Coalition is in from 53-47 to 52-48.

Movements on leaders’ ratings are rather more modest: Anthony Albanese is up one on approval to 36% and steady on 59% disapproval; Angus Taylor is up three to 36% and down one to 48%; Albanese’s lead over Taylor is in from 44-37 to 43-39; and his lead over Hanson is in from 52-37 to 51-40. Questions on immigration including a finding that 36% think One Nation would be best to manage it, compared with 18% each for Labor and the Coalition. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to this Tuesday from a sample of 1510.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

14 thoughts on “YouGov: Labor 26, One Nation 30, Coalition 18 (open thread)”

  1. In my considered opinion, One Nation will never form government in Australia.
    One Nation is a fringe party.

    Fringe parties do not govern in majority numbers in Australia, because we have compulsory voting. They may join a coalition, or get enough seats to be exert pressure on the ruling party, as do The Greens.
    But we will never see a Greens or One Nation government.
    One Nation is more likely to split the Right vote, than pull in voters from the Left. As The Greens split votes from Labor. I do not worry about One Nation.

    In another topic, we live in a time when expressing cruelty, outrage, hatred and pure nastiness is becoming normalised as a social behaviour. It is not a pleasant time.

    Sometimes the best thing you can do is give peopke what they want, until the realise they didn’t really want that at all.
    That is what us happening in the USA right now. Trump is giving the USA rightwing voters what they wanted. Now they are learning what they really voted for doesn’t taste very good.
    In a twisted way, Trump is a good thing for the USA, in that the peopke may learn a much-needed lesson about consequences. He will be a good history lesson for the future, if nothing else.

  2. I still maintain that polling is complicit with incompetent media in the demise of good governance & democracy,

    The media thrives on chaos to generate interest, polling shows that chaos produces a result thereby encouraging chaos & the reporting of chaos.

    Polling would be more productive if it polled to show how aware the public actually aware of issues & what lay behind them… but hay much easier to concentrate on the superficial & promote ignorance..

  3. I’m predicting that Pauline Hanson will walk bare arsed down Bourke Street Mall prior to next election so she gets a jump in polling that proves she is a contender for PM

  4. Sceptic says:
    Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 4:50 am

    I still maintain that polling is complicit with incompetent media in the demise of good governance & democracy,

    I’d contend that media is a victim of technology in just the same way governments and individuals are as well.

    The fracturing of media due to the internet and social media is as profound as the loss of control the Catholic Church had when the moveable type printing press was invented. No less profound than when the alphabet was invented.

    Dissemination of information is fundamental to the human story, and the technological changes that shift the delivery of information create huge fractues in our civilisation.

  5. Oh we got a poll, bit of a shocker though

    We were definitely premature in calling peak One Nation, the win in Secret Harbour may have given them a boost

    Labor headed for sub 25 to go along with the LNP on sub 20?

    Greens doing Green things but interesting the Other vote is growing, well apart from the CSA on 2

    We live in interesting times

    Can’t imagine too many One Nation voters will be opting out of the algorithm. I’m surprised so many here still use X and support Musk

    Good to see Canada, France and the UK ban imports from the West Bank settlements. Hopefully Australia joins that list soon

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09-08/three-g7-countries-announce-import-ban-on-goods-from-settlements/107130998

  6. South Park changes name to South America in response to Trump changes:
    Satirical program’s new title is ‘inspired by bravery and patriotism’ of Apple and Google, who capitulated to Trump’s requests to change Lake Ontario to ‘Lake America’”
    https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2026/sep/08/south-park-changes-name-to-south-america-trump

    “Inspired by the bravery and patriotism of Apple and Google, we are changing the name of South Park to SOUTH AMERICA,” creators Matt Stone and Trey Parker said in a statement. “We especially want to thank our parent company Paramount – a Skydance Capitulation.” The show’s parent company, Paramount Skydance, owned by Trump ally David Ellison, is poised to become one of the biggest media conglomerates in the US after the Trump administration approved its $111bn merger with Warner Bros Discovery (WBD), drawing much creative industry backlash.

  7. Morning all. This poll is a poor result for Labor but worth noting that it still has Labor at 53:47 2pp. That means Labor would not keep its 90+ seats but would still comfortably retain majority government. So, like others, I still find talk of a ON government a stretch.

    Any Federal election is still almost two years away. Some of Labor’s budget measures will improve things before then, and the current grim world outlook might also improve.

    I agree with others there is a lot of disinformation in what we used to call the “mainstream media” which in the case of Murdoch is now distinctly outside the norm.

    The readership of MSM is also declining though. ON using Gina’s money to pump up Pauline via social media is probably more important. The recent plans to allow people to turn off social media algorithms will be a major step forward in this area.

  8. Bizzcan (from previous thread)

    My personal preference these days is to use the media more as a topic indicator before seeking primary sources (where time permits). Actually trusting the words as written by most media outlets (establishment or “new” media) is becoming a fraught exercise. However, that is not what most people do – instead most pick their politically aligned communicator to filter news and events for their convenience.

    I agree with your approach but the problem is that this takes more time and people knowing where to look. That probably rules it out for the average person.

    This still makes some legacy media important. The ABC’s “If You’re Listening” and in depth reporting series on podcasts are a big step forward for people in my opinion. I am finding them well researched and convenient to download and listen to while exercising. There has never been a better time to adequately fund the ABC.

  9. This would be a welcome side effect of the new laws.

    The Albanese government’s push to allow Australians to opt out of social media algorithms will hamper One Nation and right-wing politicians from reaching audiences, experts have warned, as Labor insists the policy will not curb free speech.

    Liberal frontbencher Jacinta Nampijinpa Price and One Nation MP Barnaby Joyce have accused the government of politically motivated censorship, while Prime Minister Anthony Albanese argues the changes are designed to give social media users more choice.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/algorithm-shake-up-will-hurt-right-wing-parties-censorship-fight-heats-up-20260908-p60vd0.html

  10. Interesting to see the UK government making a significant policy shift in relation to Israel and violence against Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank. Andy Burnham is surely under similar pressures to Albo on this one. I hope Albo and Penny Wong look at Burnham’s response.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/sep/08/uk-accuses-israeli-terrorists-ethnic-cleansing-west-bank-government-backing
    And
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09-08/three-g7-countries-announce-import-ban-on-goods-from-settlements/107130998

  11. HH DP

    Trump called out on brazen new ‘totally made up story’ about 9/11: ‘Despicable liar’: https://www.al.com/politics/2026/09/trump-called-out-on-brazen-new-totally-made-up-story-about-911-despicable-liar.html

    Trump claims firefighters carried him away from Ground Zero right after 9/11: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-9-11-ground-zero-rescue-b3046756.html

    Trump is such a despicable liar that he stoops to below the bottom of the barrel.

    People, who say that they would vote for Hanson, should understand that they are supporting Trump because Hanson is Trump groupie.

  12. From previous thread
    Vensays:
    Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 2:40 am

    Dr Fumbles McStupidsays:
    Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 11:59 pm
    Steve777 says:
    Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:20 pm

    Is social media driving One Nation’s surge? I’m seeing very little of the stuff myself – the algorithms must have decided I’m not a target, but lots of people are. There’s got to be money out there pushing it.
    __________________

    I reckon this is a huge factor. I have an admittedly limited sample of open PHON/Trump fans for research purposes but have been collecting information. Most of the ON rage bait is from facebook/twitter and interestingly it is highly personal, so all Anti Albo, not anti Labor. The latest were about Albo’s trillion dollar debt, Albo’s many million dollar houses, Albos failure with fuel prices and various about Somali and other asylum seekers with machetes raping women.

    The other thing is the high level of emotive language, the whole Hate Albo, someone should take him out and the other not subtle calls for political violence and the need to ‘take over’ the Government.

    What comes to mind is that fighting the PHON on policies will not work as they are voting for Hanson just like those voting for Trump. It is a contest of personalities. The only policy they know stopping brown people coming here will make prices go down and we will all be richer – an when you point out that the latest ON member said migration will be ‘about the same as labor’ it’s called fake news.

    When you actually try an engage and point out alot of the failing they blame Labor for were particularly from ATM years they say well Morrison etal are long gone – these were previous LNP supporters but now the LNP are evil as they are ‘stealing’ ON policies e.g. tobacco.

    It is notable that this is not a normal Australian political discourse, the emotive and violent language, the intense focus on personally on the leaders an the distortion of reality is more like something from the US.

    I blame Murdoch press especially Sky after dark for popularity of ON.
    Why?
    Lets start from the beginning
    During PM Turnbull years, Fox channel was given $25 million free money.
    Sky was allowed to broadcast to regional and rural years for free(i.e. without subscription). The regional and rural folks were radicalised by far-right commentators of Sky after dark.

    Even after the atrocities during ATM, Albanese ALP won majority seats in 2022 by less than 1000 votes margin. If not for Teals, L-NP could have won 2022 election. That Albanese ALP government winning 94 seats with 34.5% PV really sent Sky after dark commentators into rage. That Australian electoral system is compulsory preferential voting system is lost by many far-right politicians and supporters.
    2PP is the final arbitrar of our political system.
    Due to radicalisation of regional and rural folks, they were attracted to ON and we have seen a glut of polling to drive home the message.
    ALP’s 26% PV is all rage driven IMO. I don’t n’t believe ALP is as bad 26% PV.

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