In what looks like a quiet week on the federal polling front, we at least have the regular Roy Morgan poll, which all but erases the lead Labor opened over One Nation last week in having the former down two-and-a-half points to 27% and the latter up three to 26.5%. The Coalition is up a point to 21.5% and the Greens are up one to 14.5%. Labor’s lead over One Nation on the respondent-allocated two-party measure narrows from 55.5-44.5 to 53.5-46.5; over the Coalition, Labor’s lead is in from 56-44 to 53-47 on respondent allocated preferences and from 55-45 to 52.5-47.5 on previous election preference flows. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1541.
By definition inflation is always up. The rate of inflation can rise, fall or remain constant from one period to the next.
MABWM
What are your current thoughts about Vic? You have in the past been confident fascism would ultimately fail there at the ballot box
If the CPI falls, it is deflation, which can be just as destabilising because FOMO is replaced by FOOP
MABWMsays:
Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:39 pm
On the hustings at the weekend (for the Greens) I was alarmed at how many middle aged men were proud to declare they were going to vote for White Nation. Fascism is on the march in this great country. Where to? Nobody knows.
(Oh, no don’t call us fascists, just because we are unconscious fascists, it hurts our feelings!)
—————
It’s like an endless stream of stupid. Where is fascism on the march to? Is it marching to the nearest MacDonald’s? Could it fill all the seats in the MacDonald’s once it got there? How many quarter-pounders will it eat?
Great, so the media (and some folk here) can’t even decide if inflation is “up” or “down” month to month.
No wonder detail-free One Nation has such an easy time.
That’s two recent polls now with an ALP primary of only 26%. It seems to me the pollsters are really struggling to get a bead on the One Nation vote, it seems to bounce around a bit more than the ALP primary. The ALP primary also seems a bit more consistent than the Coalition primary, but i figure the movement in the Coalition primary it probably mostly a reflection of the volatility in the measured One Nation vote.
Strange Fruit I think using fascism to describe ON just fails to understand what fascism really is. You can have far right views on issues without being a fascist.
Davidwh
But not among the stooges of PB. If they had been alive in the 50s they would have objected vehemently when the meme was that the ALP was communist (or maybe not, I suspect some of them are old groupers)
Yes well the ABC could have worded the article a bit better but it’s not hard to understand. The rate of inflation fell from 3.8% to 3.5% however prices as measured by inflation still increased for the period by 3.5% which is still higher than the RB preferred rate.
So good the rate of increase fell but bad because the risk of further interest rate increases remains.
Oakeshott Country I think using those terms just feeds into the perception the establishment has lost the plot and helps ON in the long run. Stop ON by addressing the issues because old time politics is under threat.
davidwhsays:
Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 11:03 pm
Strange Fruit I think using fascism to describe ON just fails to understand what fascism really is. You can have far right views on issues without being a fascist.
————
I think you are correct. Whatever One Nation now represents, it needs to be fought with rationality and logic. Accusing its supporters of baseless whinging and attaching meaningless names to it achieves nothing at all.
Primary vote:
2PP ALP vs LNP:
2PP ALP vs PHON:
These are what the Wikipedia graphs for the federal election polling look like at the moment.
I think a One Nation government here would be some kind of a blend of Orban and Trump – illiberal populism, with harsh treatment meted out to its opponents and indulgence afforded to its friends.
Prices are measured through statistical surveys by the ABS, and represented as an index where dollar values in the month of September 2025 are given a reference value of 100. Inflation is the annual growth rate in this index.
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/detailed-methodology-information/information-papers/re-referencing-quarterly-consumer-price-index
CPI may be wrong anyway, given the ABS decided to skip its annual re-weighting this year:
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/consumer-price-index-australia/latest-release#important-release-updates-and-changes
Steve777 says:
Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:20 pm
Is social media driving One Nation’s surge? I’m seeing very little of the stuff myself – the algorithms must have decided I’m not a target, but lots of people are. There’s got to be money out there pushing it.
__________________
I reckon this is a huge factor. I have an admittedly limited sample of open PHON/Trump fans for research purposes but have been collecting information. Most of the ON rage bait is from facebook/twitter and interestingly it is highly personal, so all Anti Albo, not anti Labor. The latest were about Albo’s trillion dollar debt, Albo’s many million dollar houses, Albos failure with fuel prices and various about Somali and other asylum seekers with machetes raping women.
The other thing is the high level of emotive language, the whole Hate Albo, someone should take him out and the other not subtle calls for political violence and the need to ‘take over’ the Government.
What comes to mind is that fighting the PHON on policies will not work as they are voting for Hanson just like those voting for Trump. It is a contest of personalities. The only policy they know stopping brown people coming here will make prices go down and we will all be richer – an when you point out that the latest ON member said migration will be ‘about the same as labor’ it’s called fake news.
When you actually try an engage and point out alot of the failing they blame Labor for were particularly from ATM years they say well Morrison etal are long gone – these were previous LNP supporters but now the LNP are evil as they are ‘stealing’ ON policies e.g. tobacco.
It is notable that this is not a normal Australian political discourse, the emotive and violent language, the intense focus on personally on the leaders an the distortion of reality is more like something from the US.
Listen I’m going to be honest what are you people go worst case scenario like seriously I know I’m probably gonna ignore but you guys seem to think that one nation’s gonna get 90 plus seats like I don’t know and and before you guys say Tony Abbott and Scott Morrison Tony Abbott one because Labor keeps shooting themselves in the foot between 2010 and 2013 also Scott Morrison only got one more seat in parliament you guys assume the worse
Re Dr Fumbles @11:59.
We have seen this sort of discourse before, the hatred piled on Dan Andrews recently, a decade earlier Julia Gillard and going back a few more decades against Whitlam. That was driven buy the old media. The media environment has changed, but not the main game.
Money, as always, gets ropable and personal when it faces even the slightest opposition.
Why is Money pushing One Nation rather than the old Right Wing parties? They must have decided they have a better chance of (a) getting the numbers – they still need to persuade ordinary people to vote for them, often against their own interests; and (b) a chaotic One Nation – Liberal Coalition would be more amenable to their control.
“Is social media driving One Nation’s surge?”
________________
The media spent the first half of last week proclaiming an imminent recession and growth was weak.
The media spent the second half of last week proclaiming that GDP growth was too strong and rate rises are happening as we speak.
Its a mixed messages media environment, where even simple concepts like “inflation” are muddled and wrongly communicated. So social media matters to the extent that ON can “cut through” with simple messaging on their preferred platform.
My personal preference these days is to use the media more as a topic indicator before seeking primary sources (where time permits). Actually trusting the words as written by most media outlets (establishment or “new” media) is becoming a fraught exercise. However, that is not what most people do – instead most pick their politically aligned communicator to filter news and events for their convenience.
I blame Murdoch press especially Sky after dark for popularity of ON.
Why?
Lets start from the beginning
During PM Turnbull years, Fox channel was given $25 million free money.
Sky was allowed to broadcast to regional and rural years for free(i.e. without subscription). The regional and rural folks were radicalised by far-right commentators of Sky after dark.
Even after the atrocities during ATM, Albanese ALP won majority seats in 2022 by less than 1000 votes margin. If not for Teals, L-NP could have won 2022 election. That Albanese ALP government winning 94 seats with 34.5% PV really sent Sky after dark commentators into rage. That Australian electoral system is compulsory preferential voting system is lost by many far-right politicians and supporters.
2PP is the final arbitrar of our political system.
Due to radicalisation of regional and rural folks, they were attracted to ON and we have seen a glut of polling to drive home the message.
ALP’s 26% PV is all rage driven IMO. I don’t n’t believe ALP is as bad 26% PV.
This is exactly what is happening in Australia as well.
Germany’s Far-Right and Trump’s Billionaires Are Proving FDR’s Darkest Warning Was Right
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2026/9/8/800095387/community/germanys-far-right-and-trumps-billionaires-are-proving-fdrs-darkest-warning-was-right/
Ranked: Countries With the Highest Debt-to-GDP Ratios
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-government-household-corporate-debt-by-country/
New thread.
In my considered opinion, One Nation will never form government in Australia.
One Nation is a fringe party.
Fringe parties do not govern in majority numbers in Australia, because we have compulsory voting. They may join a coalition, or get enough seats to be exert pressure on the ruling party, as do The Greens.
But we will never see a Greens or One Nation government.
One Nation is more likely to split the Right vote, than pull in voters from the Left. As The Greens split votes from Labor. I do not worry about One Nation.
In another topic, we live in a time when expressing cruelty, outrage, hatred and pure nastiness is becoming normalised as a social behaviour. It is not a pleasant time.
Sometimes the best thing you can do is give peopke what they want, until the realise they didn’t really want that at all.
That is what us happening in the USA right now. Trump is giving the USA rightwing voters what they wanted. Now they are learning what they really voted for doesn’t taste very good.
In a twisted way, Trump is a good thing for the USA, in that the peopke may learn a much-needed lesson about consequences. He will be a good history lesson for the future, if nothing else.
I still maintain that polling is complicit with incompetent media in the demise of good governance & democracy,
The media thrives on chaos to generate interest, polling shows that chaos produces a result thereby encouraging chaos & the reporting of chaos.
Polling would be more productive if it polled to show how aware the public actually aware of issues & what lay behind them… but hay much easier to concentrate on the superficial & promote ignorance..
The cost of the age pension to taxpayers will fall even as more than 9 million people reach retirement age over the next 40 years, Treasurer Jim Chalmers will reveal on Wednesday amid accusations that the next election will be an existential fight for the future of superannuation.
As the Liberal Party signalled it was looking at allowing young people to access their super to get out of the rental market, Chalmers will argue Australia is defying a global trend in age pension cost blowouts because of the superannuation system.
Chalmers, in a speech to the Super Members Council on Wednesday, will reveal findings of the upcoming intergenerational report that is due to be delivered on September 21. The report, instigated by Peter Costello in 2002, outlines key pressures on the budget over the coming four decades.
According to Chalmers, the latest intergenerational report will show that by 2066, there will be about 9 million people over the age pension age of 67. But the number of people on the pension is expected to fall from 66 per cent last year to 52 per cent. Budget spending on the pension is expected to fall from 2.3 per cent of GDP last year to 1.8 per cent by the mid-2060s. By contrast, pension spending is expected to reach 10 per cent by 2060 in the UK, 8 per cent in Canada, 7 per cent in New Zealand and 6 per cent in the US. “That is phenomenal in an ageing society, and it’s essential,” Chalmers will say.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/super-sized-political-battle-chalmers-issues-warning-on-existential-threat-20260908-p60vjy.html
World News & Politics Patrol:
UAE leader warned Netanyahu of Hamas attack days before October 7, says report: https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260908-uae-leader-warned-netanyahu-of-hamas-attack-days-before-october-7-says-report
Israel prepared to remove Palestinians from Gaza if U.S. approves, defence minister says: https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/defence-minister-israel-katz-palestinians-gaza-9.7330886
Iceland calls Trump post ‘wholly inappropriate,’ summons U.S. ambassador: https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/article/iceland-calls-trump-post-wholly-inappropriate-summons-us-ambassador/
Carney warns of tough times ahead in video message as retaliatory tariffs kick in: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/carney-national-address-tariffs-9.7335475
A US-linked network of fake websites is promoting Alberta separatism to AI chatbots: https://www.nationalobserver.com/2026/09/04/investigations/network-fake-websites-alberta-separatism-ai-chatbots
‘Mexico Is Nobody’s Colony’: Sheinbaum Strikes Back Against Border Military Map Controversy: https://www.latintimes.com/mexico-nobodys-colony-sheinbaum-strikes-back-against-border-military-map-controversy-599084
US Recognizes Ukraine’s Stronger Battlefield and Negotiating Position, Zelenskyy Says: https://united24media.com/war-in-ukraine/us-recognizes-ukraines-stronger-battlefield-and-negotiating-position-zelenskyy-says-22339
Russian Sabotage Plot Targeting NATO Sites Fails After Romania Tracks Suspect for Months: https://united24media.com/world/russian-sabotage-plot-targeting-nato-sites-fails-after-romania-tracks-suspect-for-months-22353
Ukrainians push to legalize pornography, raise millions for war effort: https://www.jpost.com/international/internationalrussia-ukraine-war/article-907720
UK accuses Israeli ‘terrorists’ of ethnic cleansing in West Bank with government backing: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/sep/08/uk-accuses-israeli-terrorists-ethnic-cleansing-west-bank-government-backing
France to ban products from Israeli settlements in West Bank, foreign minister says: https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/france-ban-products-israeli-settlements-124111351.html
King Charles WON’T meet Jamaican officials over £7.6billion slavery reparations – after they travelled to Britain with formal petition for Buckingham Palace: https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-16111285/King-Charles-meet-Jamaican-officials-slavery-reparations.html
Ken Paxton’s ex-law enforcement chief gets revenge — with a staggering endorsement: https://www.rawstory.com/ken-paxton-2677831921/
Fort Worth man charged with threatening to kill U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico: https://cbsaustin.com/news/local/fort-worth-man-charged-with-threatening-state-rep-james-talarico-with-violent-messages
Mamdani says officials ‘lied’ to New Yorkers about still-toxic air around Ground Zero after 9/11 and drops 170,000 pages of proof: https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/911-air-quality-report-mamdani-ground-zero-b3046630.html
Trump called out on brazen new ‘totally made up story’ about 9/11: ‘Despicable liar’: https://www.al.com/politics/2026/09/trump-called-out-on-brazen-new-totally-made-up-story-about-911-despicable-liar.html
Trump claims firefighters carried him away from Ground Zero right after 9/11: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-9-11-ground-zero-rescue-b3046756.html
The stable genius and Pauline’s guiding light was among the first responders and so it is entirely reasonable that he must have
have needed to be rescued. Except he was not there at all.
Trump claims firefighters carried him away from Ground Zero right after 9/11: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-9-11-ground-zero-rescue-b3046756.html
‘Puff,The Magic Dragon says:
Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 4:24 am
In my considered opinion, One Nation will never form government in Australia.
One Nation is a fringe party.’
________
One Nation could however effectively replace the National Party, and pick up a swag of seats in the outer metro rim and peri-urban areas off the LNP, Labor and Nats again (ie. white bread communities).
Where this leaves the ‘centre-right’ as a force to consistently challenge for government – at least at a federal level – is unknown, as it makes it very hard to sustain Menzies model of capturing middle australia and grafting that onto the establishment right to secure long term governments, because Labor-Teal-Greens are likely to completely shut out any force that has ON and ON friendly policies from the inner, middle and even outer rim metro seats that are multicultural, educated and heavily weighted to the under 40s demographics.
This does not mean that the reactionaries cannot toss out old State governments like in Victoria, or hold on in Queensland, and if the economy turns to complete shite – even toss out Albo and federal Labor in 2028, but long term right wing governments? Maybe a thing of the past.
Australia may be conservative in nature, and materialistic at heart, but the populist shitfuckery of ON will not be tolerated past being used as a protest vote, and potential cleanser to toss out incumbent governments that are ‘on the nose’, and NOT IMO as a foundation for actually governing.