Recent items in the news of relevance to a federal election that will presumably be held in early 2028:
• A survey of 1000 prospective One Nation voters conducted recently by former Labor-aligned pollster John Utting and strategist Bruce Hawker was the subject of a comment piece by Peter Hartcher of Nine Newspapers a fortnight ago, which noted that their most favourably viewed public figure after Pauline Hanson was Ben Roberts-Smith, with a favourability approaching 70%. However, another piece by Hartcher today (not yet available online) quotes RedBridge Group pollster Kos Samaras saying his firm’s focus group research suggests “public opinion is siding with Hastie and against Hanson”, on which Samaras further elaborates in a Facebook post.
• The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column reports Northern Territory Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price is pushing for the Country Liberal Party to delay its preselections until next year at its annual convention this weekend, and cites “senior LNP sources” saying she is canvassing support for a move to a seat in south-eastern Queensland, which Price denies. One possibility raised is Forde on Brisbane’s southern fringe, which Labor gained from the LNP at the 2025 election; another is the Gold Coast seat of Moncrieff, held for the LNP since 2019 by Angie Bell. The column further quotes a “well-placed source” asking, “why the f… isn’t she running in Solomon?”
• InDaily reports Robert Simms, a Greens member for the South Australian state upper house, will nominate to succeed Barbara Pocock as the party’s lead Senate candidate in the state at the next election. Simms had a previous spell in the Senate from 2015 to 2016, filling a casual vacancy and then failing to win re-election from second position on the party ticket at the 2016 double dissolution. The party’s state secretary, Isaac Astill, has also said he will nominate. Pocock announced last month she would not seek re-election, but InDaily reports she will serve out her remaining term.
• The Australian’s Victoria Ink column reports suggestions Mark Dreyfus is manoeuvring for Jim Round, former chief-of-staff to Dreyfus and current chief-of-staff to Assistant Treasurer Daniel Mulino, to succeed him in his seat of Isaacs at the next election. However, another candidate might be Steve Michelson, a former staffer to Bill Shorten. The seat has traditionally been a preserve of Shorten’s Australian Workers Union sub-faction of the Right, whereas Round is aligned with the Left.
• A by-election is being held today for seat of Mulka in the Northern Territory parliament, eastern Arnhem Land, following the resignation of Yiŋiya Mark Guyula. It is not being contested by the governing Country Liberal Party, leaving two candidates: Labor’s Yiwarr McGrath, described by the ABC as a “nurse and Yolŋu man from remote Elcho Island”, and independent Andrew Blamey, an East Arnhem Regional Council library program assistant.
My prediction is that none of us can really predict the outcome of an election that is a year and a half away.
Kirsdarke the problem is with that opinion is trump’s unpopular like he’s in the bush o6 unpopularity so that’s why people going to say Democrats going to win the house a general think some people here go straight to the worst outcome
Ashas I mean hell we are people predicting the 2025 election and guess what happened like seriously I don’t know what people might predictions this far out in the future also kicking Anthony out of power before his time is up is a really stupid idea because that works well labour in 2010
As skilled as the Democrats are at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, I think they would have to seriously screw up not to do well this November. Trump’s approval ratings are appalling, and despite his wins in 2016 and 2024, the Republicans have done poorly in every election where he has been the incumbant.
It’s natural to keep anticipating worst case scenarios given the spiral of the last decade, characterised by the ratchet effect when the supposed good guys are severely limited in their ability (or in some cases willingness) to undo the damage of the bad guys.
At least being a Republican is no longer a cool edgy thing to be right now
Falling housing prices will affect peoples view of the world. A great deal of personal well being has been supported by borrowing capacity resulting from increases in the value of the family home. Government policy aimed at slowing or reversing this is likely to have some impact on voting intentions.
I think bringing up 2025 (or the multitude of other examples of an incumbent government struggling in the polls coming back to win the subsequent election) is valid, especially as an antidote to any feeling of inevitable doom (or premature cockiness from the other side.)
However, I’d warn against treating it as a certainty that the government will come back because they did so last time or whatever. Just because it happened before, it’s no guarantee it will happen again. I remember Coalition supporters being confident about 2007 for similar reasons.
Quentin:
I should add that my comment above applies just as much to those predicting a Labor victory as to those predicting a defeat.
So much could happen in this time, some of which is out of the government’s control. They could win another landslide or suffer a landslide defeat or anything in between.
Well, Trump just keeps on winning and he hasn’t been able to be stopped yet, no matter how vile he gets.
Still though, if Brandon Herrera and Ken Paxton lose their elections in Texas in November, I may be shifted on this opinion.
Otherwise, if they both win, nothing can defeat Trump (R) other than Senescence (I).
There’s just something about the 2025 Federal Election map that still infuses a lot of aura even to this day.
Catching up with Pauline Hanson’s latest remarks on Albo’s mum, it confirms that Hanson is just a cruel and selfish creep.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09-13/albanese-hits-back-at-hanson-over-mother-public-housing-comments/107147902
Albo has his weaknesses, but he is not malicious. Hanson is malicious. She is not on anyone’s side but her own (and Gina’s for as long as she remains chief donor).
Labor needs to highlight that for the next two years. Night all.
Kirsdarke:
Trump’s last win was in November 2024, when the Democrats were saddled with a uniquely poor incumbant and rising inflation and cost of living.
Now, Trump is the incumbant and economic conditions are even worse, partly on account on the moronic war he started despite campaigning on ending “forever wars.” I understand your pessimism, but I think there is good reason to be bullish about the Democrats chances in the mid-terms.
I expect they will retake the House and possibly the Senate too if they perform particularly well, albiet they are up against a pretty unfavourable map for the latter.
Asha oh yeah I’m predicting Labor win but not landslide I would not be surprised if they had back to the low 80s because yeah that 2025 election was literally an anonymly so they’re bound to lose seats I just figured they have to do something so stupid losing the landslide which they could do.Wat Tyler yeah but I do think people need to like I don’t know not make doom and gloom predictions honestly tell the world is at the moment you think Labor should be doing a lot worse
I think it’s too early to predict doom and gloom but a little kick up the bum for the government couldn’t hurt.
Too much fear is a crippling thing, for sure, but not enough causes one to be careless. It doesn’t hurt for those in power to be reminded that they can lose that power, and should never take it for granted (Well, I suppose unless they’re authoritarians, in which case they might become paranoid and desperate to hold on to power, harming many in the process.)
@Asha at 10:16pm
Yeah, honestly I’ve been up and down on things about the USA’s prospects lately. Half the time I’m like “The Republicans are actually doing pretty badly in the polls, so the Democrats could maybe actually win here”, then I remember “The polls were like that in 2024, the swing states all brown-noted at 50-50 and then they all went for Trump”.
And also half the time I’m like “Surely the society who tried to raise me with a sense of morality wouldn’t cheer for and support a man as vile and immoral as Trump?”, and then they do and happily vote and support him no matter how evil he gets. And they’re doing the same for Pauline here. And then I get kind of sad and nihilistic.
Socrates
I would imagine the nature of his office prevents Albanese saying what he might really like to say about Hanson.
Pity.
Rossmcg
I agree. Albo should watch film of Hawke and Keating in full flight. Saying what they thought did their political stocks no harm.
Nothing will change for Labor until they adopt ON policies on smokes, beer and porn. Mark my words fuddy duddys
Socratessays:
Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 10:45 pm
Rossmcg
I agree. Albo should watch film of Hawke and Keating in full flight. Saying what they thought did their political stocks no harm.
____________
This guy?
I’ve done a deep dive into the psyche of ON supporters. I understand Bogans. I am part Bogan myself.
Wat Tyler yeah I actually agree you don’t want to government in cruise control mode because then nothing will get done so I think this hands and one nation is actually good if forces Labor to actually do stuff and hopefully their smarter than us.Kirsdarke honestly I think the the problem with 2024 is that when Harris got in she should have said yeah we’re going to change things and also the people who probably voted for Trump in 2024 are actually first time voters so because every special election after that the republicans lost because I think the Democrats realize oh we actually have to vote in every election
Nothing is done till it is done.
I was born and raised a bogan. But was also the smartest in school and yearned for private school girls. So I had to polish my shit. But I can revert at the flick of a switch.
Socrates
Yes Keating in full flight came to mind.
Someone has a worm named “shorten” in his brain and will benefit greatly like many others from a a dose of Dr Hanson’s home made castor oil .
I’m beginning to look forward to the half way mark in a PM Hansen’s government, with Barnaby drooling over the books resenting Taylor becoming DPM as leader of the junior coalition party and Hansen awarding herself multiple ministerial responsibilities.
Polling suggests that the booze, cigarettes, recreational drugs and access to porn are some of lesser problems being felt by many in the lucky country.
Ms Rinehart will be co-opted in as minister for small business and Mr Howard will get his wish and become GG.
It’s only “a kick up the bum” indeed!
nadia posted that Talarico would lose and I agree with her.
‘Might makes right’ logic should have been discarded long ago: Xi at Brics Summit
https://timesofindia-indiatimes-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/might-makes-right-logic-should-have-been-discarded-long-ago-xi-at-brics-summit/amp_articleshow/134190706.cms?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQGsAEggAID#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17893037380424&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Ftimesofindia.indiatimes.com%2Findia%2Fmight-makes-right-logic-should-have-been-discarded-long-ago-xi-at-brics-summit%2Farticleshow%2F134190706.cms
The so-called leader of the free world (POTUS) should have given this speech. But instead a dictator gives this speech. Whether he means it or not, I don’t know.
Confessions says:
Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 7:45 pm
Seconded.
It was a complete surprise to me.
Is there any proof of it being announced during the campaign?
Taylormadesays:
Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 9:37 pm
You wonder what his late Mum would have thought of those comments.
Not exactly a proud parent moment is it.
—————–
Hanson is about to learn a very nasty lesson about why you don’t drag people’s family in to politics. Especially not their dead mothers.
Also, did Albanese really say he wanted to ‘have it off’ with Kylie Minogue?
Good on him if he did, and I am in full agreement, but I’m also pretty certain that the last time anyone ever said they were going to ‘have it off’ with anyone was around 1978.
FUBAR the Vision-Impaired:
The proof is several posts down from the one you quoted.
Just saw the Guardian article. I stand corrected but I was surprised as many others were.
The Voice wasn’t a major issue in the 2022 campaign. Of course it didn’t get a huge amount of coverage compared to actual hip pocket issues. (Still got some, though, mostly from republic supporters annoyed that referendum had been shelved in its favour.)
But the announcement during the election did happen, and it took all of five minutes for me to Google the relevant article. It is hardly Albanese’s fault that people weren’t paying attention or that the media didn’t make a big deal about it at the time, though I would concede that the government should have pushed way harder against the anti-Voice campaign’s shameless “election night announcement” lie once it started doing the rounds.
It certainly wasn’t a policy that the ALP ran hard on. That’s why it was a surprise for it to get such high priority in the election night speech. Turned out to be a massive failure for him.
I believe his exact words were “Yes.”
I still maintain that Kyliegate, while not his wisest move, was not at all a big deal. Melongate, on the other hand, was a much more serious faux-paus.
Asha says:
Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 11:33 pm
FUBAR the Vision-Impaired:
No, just responding to posts as I read them from where I left off earlier.
Still sulking about the referendum I see. We had an election since and voters clearly didn’t care enough to punish the government for it, despite whining about it being Dutton’s central campaign message.
Yeah, it was, if only he had just succumbed and called the election in late 2024 as everyone in the media who hated Labor was baying for.
But they didn’t, and Dutton lost when it happened in May 2025.
FUBAR:
My local Labor candidate brought it during nearly every public appearance he made. He wasn’t the only one who did so. It came up when I was doorknocking and doing phone canvassing as well.
It wasn’t a major policy, no, because why would it have been? It was a harmless proposal being put to referendum, not tax reform or healthcare or immigration or other hot button issues. It wasn’t until the right completely lost their minds about it that it became such a huge thing. But it most definitely was mentioned during the campaign, and more than a few times. People are really showing some selective memory here.
People were so mad about the Voice referendum that they reelected the government in a historic landslide.
Ashasays:
Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 11:47 pm
I still maintain that Kyliegate, while not his wisest move, was not at all a big deal. Melongate, on the other hand, was a much more serious faux-paus.
—————–
Can’t really understand why either thing was turned into such a spectacle. The Japanese PM clearly couldn’t give a shit.
@Strange Fruit
Because the media loves Trump and Pauline and Gina and want them to rule us like emperors, and want to destroy anyone that gets in their way, which at the moment is Albo in Australia.
The ABC carries a story in which a Melbourne business owner Charanjit Singh believes One Nation deserves a chance to govern Australia.
Anyone who is not white and Christian and supports Pauline Hanson is a self serving moron.
Hanson slagging off Albanese’s late mum shows just what a disgusting person she is. Her disgraceful comments about Albanese’s mum also is a direct assault upon people who live in public housing.
Hanson should be pilloried for what she says in exactly the same way as other politicians cop it for saying even the tiniest thing that offends someone’s sensibilities.
Hanson is grossly offensive but people in high positions and the media in particular, are shit scared to call out the revolting toerag.
New thread.