Federal polls: DemosAU and Roy Morgan (open thread)

One poll has the Coalition gaining at One Nation’s expense, another has the opposite.

The monthly DemosAU poll for Capital Brief is notable for recording a five-point drop for One Nation to 24%, with the Coalition up four to 25%, Labor steady on 26% and the Greens down two to 12%. A three-way preferred prime minister question has Anthony Albanese steady on 35%, Angus Taylor up one to 23% and Pauline Hanson down four to 22%, while head-to-head results have Albanese leading Taylor 38-36 after a 38-38 tie last time, and Albanese’s lead over Hanson out from 42-37 to 43-32. Albanese is up three on his positive rating to 28%, down two on neutral to 25% and down one on negative to 47%; Taylor is down one to 23%, up one to 50% and steady on 27%; and Hanson is down four to 30%, steady on 23% and up four to 47%. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1532.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll records movement in the opposite directions, with One Nation up two to 27% and the Coalition down two-and-a-half to 21%, while Labor drops one-and-a-half to 27% and the Greens gain two to 14%. Labor holds an unchanged 53-47 lead over One Nation on respondent-allocated two-party preferred, while its leads over the Coalition are unchanged at 52-48 on respondent-allocated preferences and 52.5-47.5, out from 51.5-48.5, on previous election preference flows. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1508.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

411 thoughts on “Federal polls: DemosAU and Roy Morgan (open thread)”

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  1. P1

    So … given how flaky AI has demonstrated itself to be, ask yourself why we continue to pursue this chimera.

    FFS, wake up and smell the fossil fuels.

    I gotta say this is the first time that I’ve seen this particular conspiracy theory. I’m a little surprised it came from P1, he’s usually on the money with climate change science based posts.

  2. While I don’t think that data centres are being built to prop up the fossil fuel industry, I do worry we’re building, or proposing to build, way too many of them

    There is bound to consolidation in the broader AI sector in the next few years. How many of these data centres will become white elephants?

    The Greens are right calling for a moratorium. The Tassie Greens are right in calling for a inquiry into what the net benefits are. The SA government calling a Royal Commission is probably a bit over the top but ok

    The sense of urgency is deliberate imo, we should pause and get it right rather than rush these things through

    Edit. timely given SL’s post

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-08-25/data-centre-power-hungry-demand-2036/107070852

  3. Albanese very disappointing on WA and the GST, it’s a rort

    Good that he said only while he is PM and didn’t commit whoever takes over. Kind of weird he said he has signed body parts in regards the guarantee. Melons?

  4. We’re undergoing a massive infrastructure build out. Its rapid and mirrors similar build outouts such as rail and road, sewage, water and power.

    There’ll be foreseeable issues such as environmental impacts and emerging issues such as community opposition.

    What my reading is showing is that newer data centres are building water reuse systems, as they should. This lowers power usage and of course water usage.

    I’m not against this build out but I’m cautious about the many unexpected impacts on our society. They will be huge.

    The community opposition has the impact of slowing down AI development and allows governments to catch up with the slower process of putting in place legislative frameworks. Moratoriums are bad for everyone.

  5. Liberal senator Leah Blyth is facing a battle to hold onto her senate spot as some delegates loyal to senator Alex Antic withdraw support. The ABC has seen messages from Senator Blyth where she sought a preselection meeting in June this year and said the party was on track to win zero federal seats in SA and maybe one senate spot. Senator Blyth, who is also the party’s state president, declined to comment.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-08-25/liberal-senator-facing-preselection-battle/107055842

  6. Trump Has Positive Net Approval In Only Three States

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2026/8/24/800088646/community/trump-has-positive-net-approval-in-only-three-states/

    District of Columbia: -83

    Maryland: -50

    Vermont: -50

    Hawaii: -48

    New York: -46

    Washington: -42

    Illinois: -41

    Connecticut: -40

    Rhode Island: -40

    Massachusetts: -38

    Oregon: -37

    Deleware: -37

    California: -34

    Colorado: -34

    New Jersey: -34

    New Mexico: -32

    Minnesota: -32

    Georgia: -31

    Maine: -31

    New Hampshire: -31

    Wisconsin: -28

    South Carolina: -28

    Nevada: -27

    Michigan: -27

    Virginia: -27

    Pennsylvania: -26

    Ohio: -26

    North Carolina: -25

    Iowa: -24

    Indiana: -24

    Arizona: -23

    Texas: -22

    Alaska: -18

    Missouri: -18

    Florida: -18

    Kansas: -17

    Mississippi: -17

    Nebraska: -16

    Louisiana: -14

    South Dakota: -13

    Kentucky: -13

    Utah: -12

    Arkansas: -11

    Tennessee: -10

    Alabama: -10

    Montana: -7

    Oklahoma: -7

    North Dakota: -1

    West Virginia: +6

    Idaho: +9

    Wyoming: +14

    https://www.economist.com/interactive/trump-approval-tracker

  7. Den of thieves?

    Ex-ATO boss Chris Jordan allegedly paid ‘little or no income tax’ while at KPMG.

    A former KPMG partner who went on to lead the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) for more than a decade, Chris Jordan, is alleged to have avoided paying tax during his time at the firm, according to documents seen by ABC News.

    Mr Jordan also allegedly “promoted tax schemes to clients” and received $1.2 million in “illicit and secret” commissions during his time at KPMG.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-08-25/whistleblower-alleges-chris-jordan-avoided-paying-tax-kpmg/107063824?

  8. P1
    We can get our data through undersea cables from data centers with zero environmental, social or political constraints.
    Or we can get it from onshore data centers with suitable constraints.
    Take your pick.

  9. HBG, and what’s the legislation benchmark where the Greens would be willing to lift a moratorium? Might it be a complete ban on new data centres? So the moratorium is effectively permanent? Might the Greens use phrases such as ‘the legislation was rushed’ the legislation doesn’t go far enough ‘ whilst using phrases such as ‘Labor isnt moving fast enough’ ‘Labor is the pockets of big data and fossil fuels ‘

  10. Australia is neither a vacuum nor an island when it comes to data centers.

    The greater the delay, the greater the constraints, then the greater the costs to Australia. There is a greater the national security risk, particularly if it results in data centers functions, including current data center functions already in Australia, being transferred overseas.

    Australia already has somewhere between 100 and 250 data centers.

  11. Looking at the BludgerTrack right now, there’s a 2PP swing of 3.7% to the Coalition from the last election.

    I still think that Labor can form majority government on those numbers, but anything above 83 seats is now officially off the table unless if Labor can lift their primary vote beyond the 27.7% that they’re currently on.

  12. MI Labor has outlined rules re data centres, it seems pretty dumb to keep approving them before those rules are in place

    Legislation that will likely be passed with the LNP if the Greens don’t back it. I’d imagine they’d want a Senate inquiry

    As I said earlier, that sense of urgency is manufactured and deliberate. It isn’t real imo

  13. Was there ever a development that the Greens were not intent on damaging or destroying, regardless of the costs to the nation or to Australia’s consumers, particularly those who can least afford the luxury expectations of the Greens?

  14. The Greens FUD is helping to push the nation to the Right.

    The Hanson/Taylor government will not be having any data center rules. They would almost certainly subsidize the use of gas in the NT and Queensland to power data centers. As for any water in the environment, it is there to make a quid out of it.

    Enjoy!

  15. World News & Politics Patrol:

    US launches ‘Operation Economic Outcast’ to cut Iran’s economic lifeline: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/24/trump-administration-announces-global-economic-war-on-iran

    Ford doubles down on ‘kiss my ass’ comment to Trump amid Canada-U.S. trade war: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ford-news-conference-canada-us-trade-war-9.7318104

    Putin Talked Greatness for 27 Years—Now Russia is Queuing for Gas: https://united24media.com/war-in-ukraine/zelenskyy-putin-talked-greatness-for-27-years-now-russia-is-queuing-for-gas-21921

    Ukraine hands UK intelligence ‘goldmine’ to foil Putin’s saboteurs: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/08/24/ukraine-hands-britain-goldmine-of-battlefield-intel/

    Rep. Al Green files articles of impeachment against Trump again: https://thehill.com/homenews/house/6046947-green-introduces-trump-impeachment-articles/

    Trump’s Fury Over Natalie Harp Mess Worsens as Leaks Grow More Damning: https://newrepublic.com/article/214616/trump-fury-natalie-harp-mess-worsens-leaks-grow-damning

    A recently revealed email suggests that administration officials discussed punishing a state for convicting a MAGA conspiracy theorist: https://www.lgbtqnation.com/2026/08/quick-hit-ive-never-seen-anything-like-it-judge-aghast-at-new-evidence-of-trumps-vindictiveness/

    New York supermarkets sue over Mamdani’s municipal grocery stores: https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/6046875-nyc-grocers-sue-mamdani-administration/?tbref=hp

    Supreme Court sides with Trump administration on mail voting restrictions ahead of midterms: https://apnews.com/article/trump-mail-voting-supreme-court-157afc3c195ce0a62c522da5ce904b04

    Father of USS Lincoln sailor taken into ICE detention while son deployed in Middle East: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/aug/24/uss-lincoln-sailor-deployed-iran-war-father-arrested-by-ice

    World’s oceans hit hottest temperature on record in August: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/aug/24/worlds-oceans-hit-hottest-temperature-on-record-in-august

    Military facilities are $285 billion behind in maintenance and repairs, watchdog says: https://www.stripes.com/theaters/us/2026-08-24/watchdog-pentagon-lapses-facilities-repairs-22649636.html

  16. Ven

    I pasted the state poll results into ChatGPT.. it gave an interesting reading..
    Conclusion ..
    One thing that really jumps out
    The geographic breadth of the numbers you’ve posted may actually be more politically significant than the absolute lows.
    Trump isn’t merely underwater in traditionally Democratic states. He’s also substantially underwater in states he won:

    I take this as absolute positive proof the election in November either doesn’t happen period or the GOP rigs / distorts the result to prevent it being ratified… in short US Democracy is dead awaiting cremation

  17. Player One says:
    Monday, August 24, 2026 at 9:29 pm

    nadia

    Out of interest – what the heck is a data centre? What goes on there?

    Consumption of electricity. Just like bitcoin before it, that’s all it’s for.

    Now ask yourself why.

    Possibly P1’s most stupid comment ever. Which is saying something.

  18. SCOUTS keeps brown nosing Trump.. totally expected give the show is run by biggest brown nose of all time Roberts who’d knifed Al Gore when a junior Bush lackey in Bush v Gore

    US postal service rJustice Ketanji Brown Jackson writing that the rule “lets another shoe drop in the Kafkaesque nightmare that our precedents have been steadily creating for certain plaintiffs who seek to bring election-related challenges.”

  19. I see constant slagging of AI on bludger. I agree with those who point out some of the problems with it. I have grave concerns about how my grandkids are going to grow up in an AI world.

    One of my habits is to ask anyone I meet who has to earn a quid whether they are using AI whether their company is using AI and whether their industry is using AI.

    I rarely meet with a ‘No’ for all three domains. The new normal is that AI is in there somewhere. Already.

    I have zero doubt that AI is going to smash some kinds of jobs altogether. It will vastly reduce some overheads. It will accelerate some processes and some developments. It will add vastly to some costs.

    I was talking to a guy who part-finances owner/builders for builds in excess of $3 million. The builds from start to finish typically take 12-24 months. The business relationship for each build is outlined in the loan agreement. He pops the loan agreement holus bolus into AI and prompts it to turn the loan agreement into a financial management/build schedule for the term of the loan. Less than a minute later he has it on his screen. He knows the business inside out so can easily spot any problems with the AI response. I asked him whether those starting in the industry would be able to do the same. Nope.

  20. Sceptic says:
    Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 8:15 am

    It is difficult to pinpoint when American democracy expires. A slow motion car crash which one could argue began with those hanging chads in 2000. It might just die at the 2026 mid-terms. It might just crawl along for a wee while yet.

  21. Australia’s lobbying rules ignore most lobbyists. It’s time for an overhaul

    https://theconversation.com/australias-lobbying-rules-ignore-most-lobbyists-its-time-for-an-overhaul-290141

    “The secret world of political lobbying has been thrown into the spotlight by ABC Four Corners this week. The program examined the loopholes in lobbying regulations in the context of the Albanese government’s recent gambling reforms.

    Today, new research from the Australian Democracy Network uncovers core flaws in Australia’s lobbying rules.

    The current system allows powerful people, organisations and corporations to attempt to influence government decision-making covertly. It makes it almost impossible for the public to know who is shaping important policy and why.
    :::
    Research published last year by Transparency International Australia found the federal rules are weaker than every state jurisdiction.”

  22. Amazing how the Trump proxy in Australia One nation is 29-29 equal on primary with struggling fed labor gov -latest Newspoll.

    Geez kicking out illegals,strong borders,strong economy,reducing crazy crime rates under Dems to 100 year lows by Trump ,highlights the failures of Labor in Australia in its economic,social and policing policies.

  23. Kronomex says:
    Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 8:21 am

    Operation Economic Outcast

    The moron Bessent got that wrong, it should be Operation America Outcast.

    The kinetic aspects of the war are stalemated. Both sides are now intent on inflicting maximum economic damage on the other in the hope that the Home Front crumbles. (The main problem for the US is that Iran is controlled by maniacal religious nutjobs who are not amenable to economic pain. The main problem for the Iran side is that most of the economic damage they are inflicting is not directly on the US. We are all collateral victims of the US and Iran economic warfare strategies.)

    The 20th century was marked by US/Russian proxy wars. The 21st century is increasingly being marked by US/Chinese proxy wars. Proxy wars can have kinetic and economic dimensions.

    The strategic problem for the US is that it cannot stop China and Russia accessing Iran’s northern borders. This applies to war logistics. It applies to civilian trade. The strategic economic problem for Iran is that most of its trade infrastructure is oriented to the Gulf and they can’t use it because the US has blocked it.

  24. A repost from the previous thread, courtesy of Newy Boy, about Trump possibly being a Russian “plant”.

    I think that Russia has “kompromat” on him – as does Israel – courtesy of Epstein Island videos. And he certainly has the same DNA as the worst of Russia’s oligarchs, but I don’t think he’s the Manchurian candidate. Bone spurs shielded him from that possibility.

    https://www.theguardian.com/books/2026/aug/24/betrayal-by-luke-harding-review-is-donald-trump-a-russian-asset

  25. Spence says:
    Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 8:28 am

    HBG – you seem to have a fixation with Melons. Anything else you want to tell us?

    HBG is green on the outside and blue on the inside.

  26. Not ideal Griff lol

    This was interesting re Victoria and the number of candidates building leading up to the election, except for One Nation. Vic Socialists going big it seems

    https://www.tallyroom.com.au/66259

    YouGov tonight will be an interesting addition to the mix

    Time for work, enjoy your day folks

    Edit. Spence I am a fan of melons other than when the PM speaks about them

  27. Russia was Bidens disaster blaming Trump laughable.

    In Middle East ,Labor party supporters crazy conspiracy theories is merely hidden hate for Israel.

  28. Albanese seeks to quell datacentre disquiet as climate expert warns ‘we’ve got one shot to get the rules right’

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/aug/25/albanese-seeks-to-quell-datacentre-disquiet-as-climate-expert-warns-weve-got-one-shot-to-get-the-rules-right

    “In addition to 165 datacentres already operating around the country, a further 225 are in development, the report showed, reflecting a substantial increase in new proposals compared to 2025, Aemo said on Tuesday.
    :::
    But there were high levels of uncertainty, with more than a third of projects listed in 2025 since cancelled, and operating facilities taking years to ramp to full capacity.
    :::
    Projects approved for development before the new rules come into place will only be subject to existing state and territory laws.”

  29. Hard Being Greensays:
    Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 7:59 am
    MI Labor has outlined rules re data centres, it seems pretty dumb to keep approving them before those rules are in place

    Legislation that will likely be passed with the LNP if the Greens don’t back it. I’d imagine they’d want a Senate inquiry

    As I said earlier, that sense of urgency is manufactured and deliberate. It isn’t real imo

    New legislation can have clauses in place to acknowledge earlier builds, set a benchmark for standards, set a timeframe for meeting those standards, and set penalties for not meeting either the standards or timelines. .

    There is zero need to freeze building.

  30. haha. One for Peg:

    I just prompted AI on the Greens and lobbying:

    Aboriginal & Charity Exception: Note that charities, non-profits, and community groups lobby too, not just big corporations.

  31. Pegasus says:
    Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 8:34 am

    Albanese seeks to quell … Greens destructive and unbalanced FUD on datacenters.

    Fair enough, too.

  32. What colour is BW on the outside and what colour is BW on the inside.?

    Over the years he has been an ardent supporter of the Informal Party. Now, apparently, he is an ardent supporter of Labor. In the future, who knows.

    Murky either way.

  33. Holdenhillbillysays:
    Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 8:12 am
    Data centres are expected to draw as much power from the grid by 2036 as all homes in NSW and Victoria do today, the energy market operator has forecast.
    The energy market operator says the number of data centres in development since last year has more than doubled from 97 to 225.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-08-25/data-centre-power-hungry-demand-2036/107070852

    An in that time roof top solar and household battery storage will soar and the rollout of new capacity via renewables will likewise soar.

    Good on Labor for putting in place forward thinking policies on renewables.

    https://smartenergy.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/ACF-X-SEC-Solar-and-Battery-projections.pdf

    https://cleanenergycouncil.org.au/getmedia/4bb1033a-e903-4dd7-a30c-5de488de1b97/cec_rooftop-solar-and-storage-report_jan_june2025.pdf

  34. New York supermarkets sue over Mamdani’s municipal grocery stores: https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/6046875-nyc-grocers-sue-mamdani-administration/?tbref=hp

    A dirty little secret: Coles and Woolies have many local ‘initiatives’ designed to kill potential local competition.

    I prompted AI and got this:

    However, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) has heavily scrutinized how both supermarket giants leverage restrictive private commercial contracts, exploit local zoning laws, and practice “land banking” to block independent competitors and chains like ALDI from opening nearby.

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