Federal polls: YouGov, Spectre Strategy, Essential Research (open thread)

Three new federal polls tell a similar story on voting intention, with two showing a marked deterioration in Angus Taylor’s standing.

The fortnightly result from the YouGov poll series now known as News24 Pulse has Labor steady on 28%, One Nation down one to 25%, the Coalition up two to 22% and the Greens up one to 13%. Respondent-allocated two-party measures give Labor unchanged leads of 53-47 over the Coalition and 56-44 over One Nation. Anthony Albanese is down a point on both approval and disapproval, to 37% and 55% respectively, while Angus Taylor is unchanged at 33% approval and 49% disapproval. Albanese’s leads on preferred prime minister narrow from 45-34 to 43-37 against Taylor and from 54-35 to 52-37 against Hanson. The poll also finds only 10% rate that multiculturalism has “not served Australia well”, with 37% rating it an unalloyed good and 46% good but “becoming a problem”. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to this Tuesday from a sample of 1519.

Also out is the fourth poll for the term from Spectre Strategy, whose primary votes of Labor 28%, One Nation 26%, Coalition 23% and Greens 12% differ from their April result only in being a point lower for the Coalition. Labor has a steady respondent-allocated two-party lead over the Coalition of 51-49, while that over One Nation widens from 52-48 to 54-46. Quite a few of the poll’s other indicators were improved for Labor after bad results in April, including Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings, which are up two on favourable to 33%, up four on neutral to 19% and down five on unfavourable to 47%. Angus Taylor is down two to 26%, up two to 34% and up eight to 33%, while Pauline Hanson is down two to 41%, up two to 16% and up two to 42%.

The Essential Research has updated its website with its monthly voting intention result, which has Labor up one to 31%, One Nation down one to 25%, the Coalition down one to 22% and the Greens up two to 12%, with the undecided component down a point to 4%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure, which has been particularly sticky for Labor, now has Labor leading 48-47 after trailing 48-46 last time. Angus Taylor takes a hit on his personal ratings, down three on approval to 33% and up seven on disapproval to 44%, while Anthony Albanese is steady on 38% and up one to 52%. The poll had a sample of 1060 and I assume was conducted last Wednesday through to Monday. The Guardian reports further results on the salience of various issues and how the government has handled them, which should shortly be published along with other attitudinal results on the pollster’s website.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,435 thoughts on “Federal polls: YouGov, Spectre Strategy, Essential Research (open thread)”

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  1. subgeometersays:
    Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 9:12 pm
    My opinion is that it’s Trump’s renewed idiot war and the once-again skyrocketing price of fuel that has most soured the mood.
    ===============================================

    Extreme right nationalism as practiced by the likes of Trump and Putin is a wealth killer and is a main cause of the global cost of living crisis.

  2. FYI: All pensions and allowances paid under the Social Security Act are indexed to the CPI and increases are paid every March 20 and September 20. Pensions are also indexed to the Pension and Beneficiary living cost index (as pensioners spend money different to the general population) AND Average Weekly Ordinary Time Earnings.
    The income and assets thresholds are indexed every 1 July.

  3. The real message to middle and low income households is this: once they “smash capitalism”, they are coming after you next.

    That the classes so hurt not by capitalism but by stupid right wing ideology of trickle down, which is obviously completely unsupported garbage, that those classes should be terrified of a capitalism that doesn’t steal from them to funnel wealth to the Epstein class is possibly the stupidest trickle down lie of all.

    So deeply stupid so deeply ignorant.

  4. Holdenhillbilly
    Pensions are indexed but the rates are far too low, the Aged Pension maybe isn’t because retirees have income from their super and other assets but Jobseeker and DSP are a different matter.

  5. Meanwhile…

    Gen Z is a rising force in luxury travel, with the generation’s motivations no longer anchored by demographic factors, but increasingly shaped by intention, identity and personal meaning.

    More than half of today’s affluent Gen Z travellers fund their own trips, while nearly half plan every aspect of their journeys themselves. Immediate family remains their preferred travel companions (51 per cent), while small-group travel has grown by 17 per cent, signaling a shift toward more intimate, shared experiences.

    They also bring sophisticated expectations to every journey. Cultural immersion and engagement with local communities influence destination choice for 87 per cent of respondents, while culinary discovery (86 per cent), proximity to nature (86 per cent) and wellness (85 per cent) are key priorities shaping travel decisions.

    At the same time, Gen Z travelers expect luxury to be seamless. Time inefficiencies and communication gaps are among their biggest frustrations, underscoring a growing demand for intuitive, frictionless service. Meanwhile, technology is playing an increasingly important role in trip planning, with 23 per cent already using AI tools for travel inspiration and planning.

    https://www.destinationnsw.com.au/newsroom/gen-z-reshapes-luxury-travel-in-asia-pacific

  6. Interestingly the One Nation Victorian State launch tomorrow is supposedly in Hawthorn. But as there is only 4 or 5 potential venues I can think of, I suspect this is a red herring. Ticketholders will be told the venue tomorrow at 2pm by email and I reckon it will somewhere else in Melbourne.

  7. Holdenhillbilly
    Yes, they are the same rate which is odd when one is for retirees and the other is for people in their prime years.

  8. Alpha Zerosays:
    Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 9:47 pm
    Quentin Rountree, have you tried reading the comments on said Facebook posts?
    ==========================================

    Russian troll bots are certainly no Tolstoy.

  9. Socrates says:
    Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 9:40 pm
    LotY

    Demos says 31% of people earning less than $45k support ON, Labor has done very little for people on welfare.

    Then they are mad.
    The LNP and ON would only cut welfare further if in government.
    Hanson has never voted for a wage rise for workers in her entire parliamentary career.

    _________

    Cognitive dissonance has increased in prevalence post-COVID. By better half made the observation today that people willingly believe that COVID is just a cold and at the same time believe it was created in a Chinese lab. The belief structure for Right-wing popularism is similar.

  10. I think most low income people want better paying jobs, not more welfare. And they are choosing the party they think (rightly or wrongly) will reduce competition for those jobs and pay rises.

    Campaign for higher welfare if you all wish, but don’t pretend it will move the polling needle.

  11. “I think most low income people want better paying jobs, not more welfare. And they are choosing the party they think (rightly or wrongly) will reduce competition for those jobs and pay rises.

    Campaign for higher welfare if you all wish, but don’t pretend it will move the polling needle.”

    Based on what Bizz? Because polling on this topic is pretty locked in that most voters support increased social welfare support networks.

  12. Bizzcan
    No doubt they want better paying jobs, but if they can’t get that better paying job or fear losing the job they don’t want to be left behind.

  13. Doesn’t really matter if people want higher pay or higher welfare the failed trickle ideology based on nothing more than right wing lies reduces both over time.

    It exposes our kids to the worst of climate change with ever reducing resources.

  14. nadiasays:
    Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 6:13 pm
    thanks B.S.Fairman.
    Redbridge-Accent, not Resolve.
    Thanks for poll numbers. So One Nation continues it’s march. Gosh – 31%
    _______________________
    You can thank the ABC for that with their attack on Gina Reinhardt.
    Labor marked down due to Gallagher’s silence as well. Why wouldn’t she have said something as the Minister for Women.
    I thought they were trying to turn the temperature down.
    I can remember Plibersek condemning Jordan Shanks disgusting attack on Nicole Flint many years ago.

  15. Had an interesting conversation with a POM that knows more about AUKUS than any of us ever will, and I asked him if we are very going to get our subs. His response was interesting.

    We are all asking if the US can lift it’s game, will we get new US submarines, or second hand junk. His answer focused on what comes after. And his view was.

    The building of the reactors is now fully funded and ROLLS ROYCE are capable of making it happen. When it comes to the subs themselves Australia has proven they can build world class build facilities, what we have to build the hunter class is better than anything they have in England, he can’t see why Australia can’t do it.

    He took my question to be asking can we do it, not can the US do it.

    I have come away with a different view. The bullshit we are now facing from the US is the cost of the technology transfer. England gets a proven reactor design, we get a proven sub design. It is actually a sane low risk option.

  16. re Confessions comments.

    That is true while an empire is growing and expanding.

    There is no land left for Europeans powers to conquer, resources are more expensive to recover, land is being degraded. Technology helps but the underlying issue is that land and economically recoverable resources are limited.

    How do you think the world would work if every person had the same consumption as a lower middle class yank… Could not be sustained. Economic growth has been sustained by greater exploitation of resources and of poorer countries for the benefit of us Whities.

  17. Alpha and entropy yeah I read some of the comments I think they’re more the people who let’s just say one nation might get the wrong ideas I personally think one nation doesn’t realize the type of people they got they think they got the racist vote but I think they just got the angry people vote and that is not a good base also I just find it funny that like with a million followers I thought there’d be more activity on one Nations main Facebook page Taylormade yeah I mean 31% I mean do you realize the liberals were like 40% in 2024 and look what happened

  18. One Nation are really just Liberals but more racist with more crazies. If I decided that I wanted to register an FU vote, it would be for the Greens or a Socialist, not an avatar of the billionaire class, which is what Pauline Hanson’s movement is.

    And I just don’t get the whole anti-vaxxer thing. Do they really want to see a return of smallpox, diphtheria, whooping cough and all the other nasties that resulted in nearly everyone who survived having the experience of losing a sibling while growing up and one or more children as adults? As for Covid, it had the potential to wipe out 1% of the population. It did wipe out about 0.1%. Maybe 0.9% is a fair price to avoid undue interruptions to business?

  19. One of the last things Morrison did was increase jobseeker by $50. Labor then increased that by $40 in 2023. These were on top of indexation. Rent Assistance has gone up by 25%, also on top of indexation.

    “And I just don’t get the whole anti-vaxxer thing. Do they really want to see a return of smallpox, diphtheria, whooping cough and all the other nasties that resulted in nearly everyone who survived having the experience of losing a sibling while growing up and one or more children as adults”
    They believe diseases are caused by the vaccines, chemtrails, wireless phone towers, electrical lines, red cordial and a variety of other conspiracies. They believe if society stopped using the things they think cause the diseases (or allowed them the secret fixes that big pharma is blocking, eg horse paste, medbeds), that the diseases would go away. But big pharma gets in the way of it all.

  20. You can thank the ABC for that with their attack on Gina Reinhardt.

    The ABC hasn’t attacked Gina Rinehart (without a ‘d’ – did they attack Gina with a ‘d’?) They wouldn’t be game, much as she deserves it. In any case, Coalition cuts to the ABC mean they have few resources to monitor the social media posts of anyone and everyone associated with their organisation.

    Labor marked down due to Gallagher’s silence as well.

    I strongly suspect that no one gives a stuff. Or maybe the Daily Rupert or National Rupert are pushing that line? Don’t know, don’t read them.

    Why wouldn’t she have said something as the Minister for Women.

    because Gina can well and truly look after herself. She has the power and money to intimidate and silence her opponents.

    I thought they were trying to turn the temperature down.

    Labor tries, but the Right and their media allies want to dial it up at every opportunity. They feed on anger.

    I can remember Plibersek condemning Jordan Shanks disgusting attack on Nicole Flint many years ago.

    Well, you have a better memory than I.

  21. Taylormadesays:
    Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 10:23 pm
    nadiasays:
    Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 6:13 pm
    thanks B.S.Fairman.
    Redbridge-Accent, not Resolve.
    Thanks for poll numbers. So One Nation continues it’s march. Gosh – 31%
    _______________________
    You can thank the ABC for that with their attack on Gina Reinhardt.
    Labor marked down due to Gallagher’s silence as well. Why wouldn’t she have said something as the Minister for Women.
    I thought they were trying to turn the temperature down.
    I can remember Plibersek condemning Jordan Shanks disgusting attack on Nicole Flint many years ago.
    ======================================

    LOL, what a hypocrite. You are pretty much the most misogynistic person on here. Don’t pretend this is anything but playing politics by you or are you going to stop posting your mean girl gutter crap now?

  22. A backward going country and a country for whom the government is not doing anything will not win so many medals especially gold medals away from home environment in an international competition (commonwealth games) and is ranked number 1 in medals tally.
    Obviously, I am talking about Australia..

    1. Australia: 65 gold, 41 silver, 53 bronze (159 total)
    2. England: 26 gold, 42 silver, 35 bronze (103 total)
    3. Canada: 18 gold, 20 silver, 21 bronze (59 total)
    4. India: 13 gold, 17 silver, 9 bronze (39 total)
    5. Scotland: 13 gold, 8 silver, 17 bronze (38 total)

    IMO, Australians are easily influenced by misinformation, disintegration and lies

    As Steve777 put it, Labor tries to dial down the anger but “the Right and their media allies want to dial it up at every opportunity. They feed on anger.”

    L-NP a.nd ON learnt from their masters in US(The Republicans)

  23. Is every pollster just as swingy and reliable as Roy Morgan now? I didn’t expect Redbridge to release a poll with such a big swing against the Greens and the LNP getting a 6 point swing towards him and claiming their first 2pp win this polling cycle.

  24. Continuing from @11:38 am
    Australia is a small country by population and it produces excellent results in sports.
    Even though it is small, Australia is spending lot of money of sports training and infrastructure to produce the results. Only a rich country can do that.
    When a country is poor or developing, they will be more focused on improving their standard of living than spending money on sports.

    AsOC posted, over 11 million people watched Commonwealth games.
    In modern age, sports is entertainment. So many people are watching them even though the games are conducted in incorrect time slots for Australians. That is a statement, which says Australians have leisure time to be entertained.

    Australia doesn’t have much of one of the engines of growth i.e. manufacturing. And yet we maintain a high standard of living for most people. Make no mistake about that.

  25. These are what the Wikipedia graphs look like.

    It looks like Labor now have a landslide margin between themselves and One Nation.

  26. Bizzcansays:
    Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 8:52 pm
    A week after Labor’s grand National Conference, the nation’s takeaway is…

    “We want John Howard back”

    Just let that sink in.

    Steve777says:
    Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 9:23 pm
    The only people who would get any help from One Nation will be people who hate migrants, and anyone else who doesn’t look, talk and think like them, more than they hate high prices and lack of opportunity. Them plus the miners and billionaires of course. Anyone who works for a salary or wage would be an idiot to vote One Nation.

    The most dominant factor making it difficult for voters and politicians promising voters, is that the conditions for everyday Australian voters that existed in Australia between 1970 till 2000, which enabled free education, rising real wages, rapid house price increases, job promotion, home loan availability and superannuation accumulation that were responsible for a large cohort of Australians to experience higher living standards and windfall wealth, no longer exist as they did.

    Enough time has passed since the luckiest politician ever, John Howard, to realize the economic conditions in Australia that has provided great wealth for boomers is unlikely to occur for the generations following.

    House prices alone made many boomers very wealthy,
    The growth in superannuation accumulated returns was beyond anyone’s expectations.

    Lucky John Howard took credit for changing windfall circumstances that made boomers so wealthy.

    Those conditions are no longer available to everyday working Australians attempting to achieve such windfalls.

    Politicians attempting to promise a return to a promised windfall landscape experienced by the boomers are doomed to disappoint.

    It explains the decline in support for the two major parties, the demise of any growth for the Greens and the exceptional rise in support for the loonies (which includes the One Nation).

    Albanese and Labor are ridiculed by the media for making changes to taxation and spending. The boomers want to retain their windfalls and the remainder just want the same good luck.

    A new cohort will emerge from the eventual transfer of wealth from the boomers to the following groups.

    The “sibling” fighting for proportional shares of inheritance has increased exponentially!

    Pauline Hanson and One Nation have no chance of delivering the return to the Howardesque promised land.

    Hansonites are deriding immigration and foreign ownership of housing, both of which contributed to the wealth of boomers.

    Hanson herself has become wealthy from immigration, superannuation and politics, all of these influences Hanson promises to “fix”.

    The pace of technological change has also contributed to the high standard of living of all Australians including the boomers.

    Very few countries in the world provide such a high standard of living as Australia.

    It’s very little wonder that migrants will flock to Australia.

    And Johnnie Howard takes credit for all this good fortune.
    Joe Hockey said get a better job!
    Abbott said I’ll shirt front them
    Rudd attempted to be caring.
    Gillard was “on a hiding” before she started.
    Turnbull, the beneficiary of immense luck, was booted by very hungry politicians wanting his good fortune.
    Morrison would say and promise anything and everything to satisfy his aspirations, explaining as he departed, “you don’t know how much pressure I was under”

    Albanese, winning two consecutive elections should be lauded for that fact alone.

    Politicians are damned if they do and damned if they don’t.

    Everybody in the lucky country wants to be a winner.

  27. Re: Redbridge polling boost for One Nation

    Likely the last we’ll hear from that Islamophobia report. Was a mistake to hold that alongside inquiries into anti-Semitism, equating the two, when one has far deadlier outcomes than the other. Especially when it came out with politically unpalatable recommendations like watering down the definition of terrorism. I expect the Labor vote will pick back up as they move on from this episode, and if Hanson continues her lack of self-discipline with comments supporting the White Australia policy, monoculture and accepting luxury holidays from billionaires. Lack of party discipline, too.

  28. “ Socrates says:
    Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 9:40 pm
    LotY

    (Labor slagger: “Demos says 31% of people earning less than $45k support ON, Labor has done very little for people on welfare”).

    _____

    @Socrates:

    Then they are mad.
    The LNP and ON would only cut welfare further if in government.
    Hanson has never voted for a wage rise for workers in her entire parliamentary career.”

    __________

    If that 31% were mainly retirees living on the aged pension, then that would make sense IMO. Workers, or those on a disability pension or the dole, not so much. Although ON is more a cultural thing than anything else. So punching down on ‘others’ (specifically immigrants and brown and yellow people more generally) is more motivating than personal economic stress.

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