The fortnightly result from the YouGov poll series now known as News24 Pulse has Labor steady on 28%, One Nation down one to 25%, the Coalition up two to 22% and the Greens up one to 13%. Respondent-allocated two-party measures give Labor unchanged leads of 53-47 over the Coalition and 56-44 over One Nation. Anthony Albanese is down a point on both approval and disapproval, to 37% and 55% respectively, while Angus Taylor is unchanged at 33% approval and 49% disapproval. Albanese’s leads on preferred prime minister narrow from 45-34 to 43-37 against Taylor and from 54-35 to 52-37 against Hanson. The poll also finds only 10% rate that multiculturalism has “not served Australia well”, with 37% rating it an unalloyed good and 46% good but “becoming a problem”. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to this Tuesday from a sample of 1519.
Also out is the fourth poll for the term from Spectre Strategy, whose primary votes of Labor 28%, One Nation 26%, Coalition 23% and Greens 12% differ from their April result only in being a point lower for the Coalition. Labor has a steady respondent-allocated two-party lead over the Coalition of 51-49, while that over One Nation widens from 52-48 to 54-46. Quite a few of the poll’s other indicators were improved for Labor after bad results in April, including Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings, which are up two on favourable to 33%, up four on neutral to 19% and down five on unfavourable to 47%. Angus Taylor is down two to 26%, up two to 34% and up eight to 33%, while Pauline Hanson is down two to 41%, up two to 16% and up two to 42%.
The Essential Research has updated its website with its monthly voting intention result, which has Labor up one to 31%, One Nation down one to 25%, the Coalition down one to 22% and the Greens up two to 12%, with the undecided component down a point to 4%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure, which has been particularly sticky for Labor, now has Labor leading 48-47 after trailing 48-46 last time. Angus Taylor takes a hit on his personal ratings, down three on approval to 33% and up seven on disapproval to 44%, while Anthony Albanese is steady on 38% and up one to 52%. The poll had a sample of 1060 and I assume was conducted last Wednesday through to Monday. The Guardian reports further results on the salience of various issues and how the government has handled them, which should shortly be published along with other attitudinal results on the pollster’s website.
HH
I think the answer to that question is the old aphorism (variously ascribed to Edmund Burke, Lloyd George, Georges Clemanceau and Winston Churchill):
“If you are not a socialist at 25 you have no heart. If you are still a socialist at 40 you have no brain.”
Many under 30’s are still studying, working part time. Some have full time jobs. Most of the young people in my orbit (my children, nephews/nieces, friends of my children and children of my friends) are/were still renting and not having children until they are around or over 30. Some of these are still living at home.
Until they get mortgages and big financial commitments, especially those that were living at home, their views on the environment, middle east etc. is moderated by their new reality.
Ah yes mehar, lets listen to the arch conservatives for our opinions on the left.
BTW, thanks for the chuckle on the weekend; your satirical piece on how the left in the US always sabotages the “moderates” by not voting, and then stating you would abstain from voting for a left wing candidate was just… “mwargh”.
Again, the ABS Labour stats are there for all to see; 30 year olds and younger are hardly some mass of unemployed leftie students, and thats ignoring that historic voting trends based on age and gender are completely fucked these days.
Aus online article just popped up about a bombshell Newspoll.Not sure their recent one is it.
About VIC.
One nation more likely to hit 35% than 25% in near future whilst labor’s population Ponzi scheme rolls on.
Greens going backwards because fed labor is too far left.
One nation names VIC leader tomorrow!
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=TAWEB_MRE170_a&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fnation%2Fpolitics%2Fwhy-one-poll-has-reframed-the-victorian-election%2Fnews-story%2F93d87525c0290abd7d6966042fbdc529&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=ULTRALOW-Segment-2-SCORE&V21spcbehaviour=append
Miskal. I never said that the left doesn’t vote for moderates. I said that moderates and independents won’t turn out to vote for far left candidates, except in deep blue states.
So a DSA or DSA-adjacent candidate winning a primary in a swing state is basically a win for the Republicans.
Actually meher, you said the following;
” And, when they (the “far” left) don’t get into power, they basically undermine and get in the way of the moderate left, who are the only sort of left that the mass of people in Western countries have any interest in voting for.
In short, if I were a voter in Michigan, the choice between El-Sayed vs Rogers would probably keep me at home on election day too.
End of rant.
PS. Stevens was also a poor choice of candidate. If the Dem machine had made the sensible choice to get behind McMorrow from the outset, then I don’t think El-Sayed would have stood a chance.”
Hardly “Miskal. I never said that the left doesn’t vote for moderates. I said that moderates and independents won’t turn out to vote for far left candidates, except in deep blue states.”
And thats ignoring recent polling showing that, actually he can beat Rogers.
But hey, maybe if the dems get even more moderate, it might work this time. Just like in 24… or 16. Hell, imagine a black guy with an arabic sounding name running on, amonsgt other things, universal healthcare. “I am absolutely determined that by the end of the first term of the next president, we should have universal health care in this country”
That would be crazy right
But not necessarily in future.
Boomers – my generation – were the anti-war protesters and women’s libbers of the 70s, the ones who cheered Gough’s victory in 1972. Now they make up a large chunk of the consumers of Sky News, the Daily Rupert and whoever took over from Alan Jones.
But their life experience to middle age was very different to that of the Millennials. They mostly finished formal education between age 15-18, joining the workforce (including apprenticeships) and the adult world. They mostly married between about ages 23 and 29, could own a home in their twenties if they were financially prudent. For the earlier boomers like me, unemployment was something our parents and older relatives remembered. Study and hard work almost guaranteed a commensurate job.
The Millennials face a very different and much more hostile world, one which fails the young badly.
The New York Times has revealed that another journalist is facing a subpoena from the administration of United States President Donald Trump, this time about reporting conducted into a secret military operation in North Korea. On Saturday, the newspaper — one of the most prominent in the country — identified freelance reporter Matthew Cole as the target of the subpoena.
Last September, Cole collaborated with the Times’s national correspondent, Dave Philipps, on an investigation into a secret 2019 mission that saw US Navy SEALs land on North Korean shores.
Their aim was reportedly to plant an electronic bug to intercept communications. But the mission fell apart, according to Cole and Philipps, when the Navy SEALs encountered a North Korean boat and opened fire on those on board.
The Times reported that agents with the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) arrived at Cole’s residence in New York City to deliver the subpoena in February. When Cole was found to be not at home, the subpoena was then sent to his lawyer.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/1/new-york-times-reveals-trump-administration-subpoena-over-north-korea-story
The Victorian state Newspoll discussed in Anthony Galloway’s piece in The Oz is last week’s result. It relates to this from Campbell White of Pyxis Polling, which conducts Newspoll:
Galloway makes the obvious connection between this and Nine Newspapers’ Resolve Strategic series, which draws federal and state results from the same poll, and has had One Nation much higher in Victoria than last week’s Newspoll.
Millennials are the first generation to move left as they age, rewriting the rules of Australian politics
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-11-26/millennials-rewriting-the-rules-of-australian-politics/106050836
“redefined the world, and now they are the generation rewriting the rules of Australian politics.
They are defying the long-held wisdom that voters often become more conservative as they age, and are, in fact, becoming more progressive as they mature.
The findings come from the latest Australian Election Study (AES) from the Australian National University, one of the most substantial deep dives into voting trends at federal elections conducted since 1987.
::::
Millennials and generation Z, the cohort beneath them, now make up a significant portion of the electorate, an estimated 42 per cent.
Elections will be won and lost on the support of this young voting group.”
The left has made the all too common mistake of assuming young people will be left leaning, it’s never that straightforward.
Pegasus, unfortunately that articles out of date. Millenials have become a bit of a wildcare relating to ON.
Again, historic patterns are broken; just look at female voters.
There are still rough patterns regarding levels of education, but even thats iffy.
The best case you can argue is that as the “quality” of life of a voter decreases, the less likely it is they vote for a traditional centrist party.
Connect that to the decreases in quality across the board, but especially younger voters, and bam, it gives you a rough indicator.
Kevin Bonham:
My 2PP estimates following #RedbridgeAccent
2PP aggregate ALP 52.3 (-0.5) vs L-NP
Shadow-2PP estimate ALP 51.8 (-0.3) vs ON
A week after Labor’s grand National Conference, the nation’s takeaway is…
“We want John Howard back”
Just let that sink in.
Whether you apply an economic lens to migration (like me), or pure racism (ON + LNP), that nation is clearly screaming that the change on the ground is too rapid, and the change at the top (budget tax changes) were too large.
The public wants to be taxed less, see its wealth grown, and face fewer physical changes in their surrounding environment.
A 2027 budget splash is no longer enough.
No one is addressing COL, but you only have to go shopping and have lunch to see how expensive food has become.
“The public wants to be taxed less, see its wealth grown, and face fewer physical changes in their surrounding environment.”
So option A is continue the long term destructive practices that fuck this country in the long run or
Option B – at least try to bring voters along on the journey of reform (insert platitudes about old men planting trees they will never sit under/we do this not because its easy but because its hard here)
Bizzcan honestly I’m kind of repeating myself but I’m generally think Labor is in a better position then I thought it was going to be with how the polls that people are eating you think that Labour’s in the in the low 20s and one nation’s in the high forties
meher:
You might enjoy this article 5 things to know about the DSA. Numbers two and three struck me. Perhaps some lessons for the Australian Greens…
https://substack.com/@garrykasparov/p-209054730
Socrates
A new airport was built in regional-rural area of India from ground up in 31 months under the Modi government.
I’ve not had the privilege of meeting a professed One Nation voter.
———————————
Seriously? You don’t need to look under beds. Nor lift any rocks.
“https://substack.com/@garrykasparov/p-209054730”
Ah yes, Garry Kasparov and the RDI, who equivicate between facists and left wing economic models as being the same thing.
Look at his comments relating to Mamdani and the NY race and then weigh up how much his nonsense is worth lsitening to…
Bizzcan is right about people wanting it easier to get ahead, they don’t want higher taxes, they are not happy about paying more for less and they don’t see the point of higher immigration and other policies seen as political pet projects. This is a response to economic stress.
Sprocket
You’re not wrong! I’m wondering which retirement village they surveyed? Or was it Tamworth??
Labor’s tightly controlled Conference was not a great look but still – 48 / 52 2PP to the LNP? Imagine the LNP vote when they aren’t riven with internal conflicts. The Labor / ON 2PP makes more sense to me.
The issues scores are also staggering (to me). One Nation has credible scores in (halting) Immigration, Crime, Economy and National Security. Ha! 😀
One Nation doesn’t have a credible, costed economic policy to speak of, as Hanson demonstrated at the NPC a few weeks ago. Yet people have forgotten that already. No wonder most voters evidently don’t remember what Hanson was like last time she had influence.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/08/02/faucis-critics-have-power-theyre-coming-after-his-pandemic-record/
Irony of ironies given the person most resembling a mafia don, shaking down companies for protection from retribution sits at the resolute desk and Republicans like Rand Paul have nothing to say about any of that.
Quentin Rountreesays:
Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 8:56 pm
Bizzcan honestly I’m kind of repeating myself but I’m generally think Labor is in a better position then I thought it was going to be with how the polls that people are eating you think that Labour’s in the in the low 20s and one nation’s in the high forties
___________________
Im not dismissing the possibility of Labor’s position being recoverable. What I’m warning is how the good vibes and kudos of popular policy can be undone if CoL issues like high rent growth persist into late 2027 or worse into 2028.
I think Labor would prefer to at least have the strongest primary of any party right now. If I were them, I’d be worried that a professed ON supporters may not be a one-step move back to Labor should the ON rise falter.
Holdenhillbilly says:
Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 8:50 pm
Kevin Bonham:
My 2PP estimates following #RedbridgeAccent
2PP aggregate ALP 52.3 (-0.5) vs L-NP
Shadow-2PP estimate ALP 51.8 (-0.3) vs ON
=====================
You’ve looked at, & quoted KB’s aggregate data.
On his “x” feed, he calls this particular poll as “ALP trails 48.6-51.4 (-4.1)”
This means that this is the first poll, this cycle, where the ALP is behind on the 2PP.
Link: https://x.com/kevinbonham/status/2083864060849008826?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Galloway makes the obvious connection between this and Nine Newspapers’ Resolve Strategic series, which draws federal and state results from the same poll
—————————
I’ve wondered about polls that stack a lot of questions. Either by phone or other method, would people’s attention wane and the reliability of later questions be questionable (aside from the issue of conflating upcoming state and distant federal voting intentions).
Labor supporters have to start demanding higher welfare payments, they have to make their MPs realise their spin isn’t going to cut it when COL is getting out of control.
meher:
You might also enjoy this unpicking of Bernie Sanders’ record. Feel the burn!!
https://rachaelbade.substack.com/p/dems-are-furious-with-bernie?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=4424676&post_id=205782029&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=false&r=2k4r8&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
Bizzcan yeah no s*** labour wants a higher number on their pv but considering how the world is it could be worse and also like the pole show one nation’s problem is Pauline’s mouth and you can’t hide when an election’s called also I kind of don’t like it when people take other countries political systems or political history to try Australia political sense seriously I think people think that one Nations like what two seats away from gaining power
“Labor’s tightly controlled Conference was not a great look but still – 48 / 52 2PP to the LNP?”
=====================
It’s a bizarre 2PP given that the Libs are polling 3rd on the primaries.
KB has the ALP sitting at 48.6% on this Redbridge-Accent poll.
Kirs calculated it at 48% to the ALP.
Will be interested to see what WB calculates it at. I would’ve thought it would be 50 evens, but given the decline in the Green vote, Kirs & KB’s calculation is probably on the mark.
My opinion is that it’s Trump’s renewed idiot war and the once-again skyrocketing price of fuel that has most soured the mood. That’s the COL issue biting hardest right now, and it’s Xers and Millennials who are most likely to need a car and to drive it a lot, cause they have jobs and kids. They are also the generations that have faced continually reapplying for the same job on reduced conditions, the ladder being cut off above them, unlike BW’s Boomers who ‘built everything’. So it’s not surprising many are pissed off and will consider voting ON, because they feel the system has failed them.
So rather than accumulating a rich bag of assets and moving to the Libs from the Greens and/or Labor, they move to ON. That said, I expect to see Labor returned once an election comes around, after 2 more budgets.
Seems everyone’s talking about the C-word when it comes to the Democrats these days.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dRIjYHVh5kI
Labor conferences are for the tragics and party affiliated. The general pop doesn’t care.
Waiting for two budgets could be too long.
The movement of political view by age reflects peoples progress towards being part of the ownership group. People with assets, children and debt have assets they do not want to lose in an overthrow the existing economic system.
The parable of only young people seeking real change to the economic order relies on the older groups have a financial stake in the capitalist system
But capitalism relies on compound growth in a finite system. That is the mathematical truth that mainstream political parties ignore.
Eventually the younger generations cannot have the same wealth as their predecessors, unless there are less of them or .. they are diverted by circuses … hello TikTok, Instagram etc.
The only people who would get any help from One Nation will be people who hate migrants, and anyone else who doesn’t look, talk and think like them, more than they hate high prices and lack of opportunity. Them plus the miners and billionaires of course. Anyone who works for a salary or wage would be an idiot to vote One Nation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dRIjYHVh5kI
Bill Maher in 2026… jesus christ.
…
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/08/02/abdul-el-sayed-accused-sexism-michigan-senate-democratic-primary/
Irony alert. What’s the bet those are the same people who were happy to heap the same misogynistic tropes on Latino men when they saw Latinos voting for Trump in 2024.
“Irony alert. What’s the bet those are the same people who were happy to heap the same misogynistic tropes on Latino men when they saw Latinos voting for Trump in 2024.”
Criticising women is now sexist.
And yet you posted Bill fucking Maher?
Irony truly is dead…
The Greens dropped four points in this poll. Did they also have a ‘shit national conference’ as well?
Maybe this whole poll it a bit of an outlier. Maybe it is just correcting for polls that had the greens as high as 14 points.
Personally, I think the government missed a generational opportunity to combine a much needed tax restructure – one that moved away from the favoured capital gains and passive investments over direct income tax relief of the Howard era – with a program that outlined actual income tax cuts as part of a grand bargain. Whilst large tax cuts would not have been wise in the current inflationary environment, a program that spread them out over the next 3-5 years (when the CGT/neg gearing changes will really start to take effect) should have been laid out.
That being said, I think a lot of low information types are believing that somehow it is government spending (which they ungraciously benefit from) and migration (which have always had, and which we need to keep the economy running given the deliberate underfunding of vocational skills training over the past 30 years) and not the disruption to global supply chains post covid, and two energy supply chain wars that are causing all their economic stresses. Nothing much the government can do about that other than to keep on doing the things that it is and try to ride it out.
And yet successive generations end up wealthier than the preceding one. My Gen Blue grandparents were wealthier (much, they owned their own home for a start) than my great grandparents.
My parents are wealthier (considerably so) than my grandparents. They went to university, sparing them from a life as blue collar workers, and not only owned their own home but acquired other assets as well.
I am better off than my parents by virtue of the fact that I have had superannuation for all of my career, meaning I shouldn’t need to rely on the government pension in my retirement.
LotY
Do we know that it is welfare recipients who are shifting their votes away from Labor? I’d be surprised if they were.
Labor has done a lot on cost of living! Inflation has been reduced, property prices are becoming more affordable, tax cuts, fuel tax levy was removed…
The global inflation spike was driven by a war beyond Labor’s control. No country has escaped it. If the LNP were in control we would still have the Persian Gulf War. The only difference would be that China would still be sanctioning our exports.
Some of the lowest paid workers, eg childcare workers have received a substantial payrise.
https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Intergenerational_Housing_Inequity/HousingInequity
Friendly reminder that Millenials and younger are likely to be worse of generationally then their parents…
If your wondering why the younger generations are shifting away from the traditional parties, thats the starting point…
Socrates
Demos says 31% of people earning less than $45k support ON, Labor has done very little for people on welfare.
You know I decided to look through Pauline Hansons Facebook it seems the most likes her post gets average around 10,000 likes some hit 50,000 but yeah I wonder where all the million followers come from
“Demos says 31% of people earning Less than $45k support ON, Labor has done very little for people on welfare.”
https://humanrights.gov.au/know-your-rights/understanding-human-rights/Australian-Human-Rights-Assessment-2026/social-security-and-poverty
“The Australian social security system is inadequate and overly punitive.
Australia’s employment services system is inadequate and need reform. In 2025, the Economic Inclusion Advisory Committee ranked Australia near the bottom of OECD advanced economic nations in terms of short-term out of work payments.
Poverty in Australia is increasing. In 2025, 14.2% of people in Australia were living below the poverty line.”
The Australian Human Rights Comission would be in agreement with you LOTY
I reckon they deliberately held back on tax cuts this budget in order to introduce them next cycle leading into an election. Plenty of commentators said they should’ve introduced tax cuts alongside the CGT changes.
LotY
Then they are mad.
The LNP and ON would only cut welfare further if in government.
Hanson has never voted for a wage rise for workers in her entire parliamentary career.