DemosAU has published its quarterly MRP poll for Capital Brief, which combines demographic modelling with a large-sample survey of 9343. This has produced its most radical result yet with respect to One Nation, showing a median projection of 68 seats for Labor (down 15 on the first quarter MRP and 26 on the 2025 election), from a primary vote that drops three points to 26%; 60 for One Nation (up eight on the first quarter), who gain three to 30%; 13 for the Coalition (up four on the first quarter and down 30 on the 2025 election), who are steady on 21%; three for the Greens (up two on both the first quarter and the 2025 election result), who are up one to 13%; and six others (up one on the first quarter, but down six on 2025).
Compared with the first quarter result, One Nation is now rated the more likely winner in Labor-held Paterson, Eden-Monaro, Ballarat, McEwen, Petrie, Dickson, Moore, Pearce, Bass, Lyons and Lingiari, together with Liberal-held Cook; the Coalition has recovered front-runner position from One Nation in Casey, Flinders and Moncrieff, as has Rebekha Sharkie in Mayo; Liberal are now rated favourites over Labor in Chisholm; and the Greens are rated favourites in Labor-held Richmond and Brisbane. The survey period was May 27 to July 11; plentiful further detail is available from the pollster’s full report.
Also out yesterday was the weekly Roy Morgan result, which has Labor steady on 27.5%, One Nation up three to 25.5%, the Coalition down one to 22% and the Greens steady on 14%. Labor’s respondent-allocated two-party lead over One Nation narrows from 55-45 to 53.5-46.5, and its leads over the Coalition narrow from 56-44 to 54-46 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 53-47 to 52.5-47.5 on 2025 election preference flows. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1643.
Ya right.
Thanks William
Re the UK
Found an excellent new poll aggregator on t’internet today (new to me at least) .. you can get a Nowcast based on the rolling average or on any of the recent polls eg the MoreInCommon poll with the 4% Labour lead
Still looking a bit dodgy for the new Chancellor, who is my local MP 🙁
https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/
https://www.aemo.com.au/newsroom/media-release/qed-q2-2026
One Nation is now rated the more likely winner in Labor-held Paterson, Eden-Monaro, Ballarat, McEwen
———————-
Going to be very difficult for one nation in Labor held seats which are comfortably held , one nation is starting with a low primary vote under 10% , and with a swing to one nation , majority of the primary vote going to come off the liberal party , which would bring the one primary vote into 20% , and there is not much 2pp help for one nation by the rightwing side of politics.
A lot of the liberal party primary votes in Labor held seats are under 25% and 20%
https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/files/major-publications/qed/2026/qed-q2-2026.pdf
‘Compulsory voting on the table as Burnham ponders electoral reform’
https://removepaywalls.com/https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/compulsory-voting-burnham-electoral-reform-nx233800n
‘Reform UK reports Zack Polanski to police over guillotine t-shirt post’
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y063yqlleo
ABC running a story today about data centres pushing up demand, from 2% of supply to 10% in the next 10 years, and how this will potentially put upward pressure on power prices
So while it’s great there’s been progress on renewables, there is a lot of work still to be done and better planning, tighter rules, around data centres
It’ll be fascinating to see what happens in Victoria today, doesn’t sound like Jacinta Allan is ready to walk away. Well not for Ben Carroll at any rate
Shout out to Michele O’Neil and Sally McManus for the great job they’ve done overall in running the ACTU. I haven’t agreed with all the positions they’ve taken but they’ve definitely been a net positive for the union movement and Australian workers overall
Sally McManus and co did an awesome job during covid, pushing Floundering Frydenburg into some Keynesian policies.
World News & Politics Patrol:
US walks out on France at UN meeting to protest ally’s criticism of America’s human rights record: https://apnews.com/article/un-us-france-human-rights-walkout-bbca1f1381a40aa2870889fd8fa99442
Zelensky says Iran effectively attacked Ukraine by supplying Shahed drones: https://mezha.net/eng/bukvy/7d22a688_zelensky_says_iran/
Putin Urges Russian Society to Embrace Ukraine War as Casualties Reach 1.4 Million: https://united24media.com/world/putin-urges-russian-society-to-embrace-ukraine-war-as-casualties-reach-14-million-21094
Putin Preparing Post-Election Mobilization of Up to 500,000 Troops: https://united24media.com/war-in-ukraine/putin-preparing-post-election-mobilization-of-up-to-500000-troops-zelenskyy-warns-21086
Russian forces have used sexual violence as a systematic weapon of war against Ukrainian men: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/europe/russia-uses-sexual-torture-as-systematic-weapon-against-ukrainian-men-report/articleshow/132640853.cms
China built full-size models of US warships and aircraft to hone its missiles: https://www.businessinsider.com/satellite-images-china-full-size-mock-us-warships-attack-2026-7
Burnham hints at 10pc death tax on all estates: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/07/27/burnham-considers-10pc-death-tax-on-all-estates/
Nigel Farage reports Zack Polanski to police over social media post calling for his decapitation – ‘Inciting murder!’: https://www.gbnews.com/politics/zack-polanski-inciting-violence-image-nigel-farages-decapitation
Trump asks Supreme Court to let him curtail mail voting: https://edition.cnn.com/2026/07/27/politics/trump-supreme-court-mail-voting-executive-order
Pentagon reports more than 600 Iran war casualties in quiet database update: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jul/26/pentagon-iran-war-troop-deaths-casualty-report
US ‘runs out of missiles’ as Trump halts Iran strikes: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/07/27/us-runs-out-of-missiles-as-trump-halts-iran-strikes/
Trump Confirms He’s Hoarding Billions From Venezuelan Oil: https://newrepublic.com/post/213566/trump-hoarding-billions-venezuelan-oil
Second photo of Sen. Mitch McConnell emerges; statement says he’s not cleared for Senate: https://www.wlky.com/article/sen-mitch-mcconnell-written-statement-photo-july-27/73274265
Trump Flips Out at Protester Calling Him “Pedophile Protector”: https://newrepublic.com/post/213581/trump-rally-protester-pedophile-protector
Trump Appears to Have Mental Heath Episode as He Posts AI Slop Nonstop: https://newrepublic.com/post/213538/trump-mental-heath-episode-ai-slop-memes
Fetterman Might Leave Democratic Party Because the Only Thing He Loves More Than Israel Is Attention: https://theintercept.com/2026/07/27/fetterman-leave-democrat-party-israel/
Peter Anderson talking with Peter Zeihan.
It is in my view an interesting discussion, both from Peter Anderson revealing his views and ignorance to how the chip building industry works and Peter giving an alternate view. Peter Zeihan is not joining the China is a risk ra ra ra.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4aOnMVrhTO0
ABC running a story today about data centres pushing up demand, from 2% of supply to 10% in the next 10 years, and how this will potentially put upward pressure on power prices.
___________________
Is there a case then, for applying a substantial electricity surcharge on data centres?
Wholesale electricity prices have fallen to their lowest June-quarter average in six years as a surge in battery storage, record wind generation and weaker evening demand combine to fundamentally reshape Australia’s electricity market.
The Australian Energy Market Operator’s latest Quarterly Energy Dynamics report found average wholesale electricity prices across the National Electricity Market fell 47 per cent from a year earlier to $74 a megawatt hour, the lowest June-quarter average since 2020. Victoria recorded the biggest decline, with prices tumbling 60 per cent to $56/MWh, while prices fell 53 per cent in NSW to $75/MWh and 44 per cent in Queensland to $67/MWh.
Wholesale electricity prices are only one component of household power bills, with network charges, environmental schemes and retail costs also contributing to what consumers ultimately pay.
Retailers typically purchase electricity months or even years in advance through hedging contracts, meaning households should not expect an immediate reduction in their bills.
https://archive.md/13xDg#selection-879.0-901.175
Australia’s first new oil refinery in 60 years could be built in Western Australia under the Albanese government’s long-term strategy to shield the country from future global oil shocks.
The commonwealth and the WA government will fund a $4m early-stage feasibility study into construction of what would be the country’s third large-scale petrol refinery.
A series of refinery closures over the past 25 years means Australia now imports about 90% of its liquid fuels, a vulnerability exposed by the international oil crisis sparked by the US-Israel war on Iran. The announcement comes as Jim Chalmers, the treasurer, warned the recent escalation of the Middle East conflict posed “a substantial threat to global inflation”.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/jul/27/potential-for-first-australian-oil-refinery-in-60-years-as-treasurer-braces-for-inflation-from-middle-east-war
Wonder where Angus Taylor and the rest of the lib/nats who have gone into hiding are.
Honestly, I despair.
You’ve got global heating staring the Govt in the face (Europe currently) and you’ve got Madeleine King on ABC peddling a new oil refinery in WA and effectively giving up on net zero.
Useless Govt.
BK – good point.
We should not bother with making data centres “bring their own renewable energy” – it is pointless as they simply sign up the next renewable generation project in the development pipeline and remove that from being available to any other users – or the spot market.
I suggest having the data centre operators voluntarily agree to being subject to a carbon price on their electricity use – perhaps all their uses/purchases. This would be a direct incentive to sign up renewable generation and may get projects over the line that never would, or those that would be a long way from development otherwise. Also, would show that sector/user specific carbon prices are not a disaster.
Morning all. Thanks SL for the reporting of good news from AEMO on wholesale electricity prices. However this only confirms my concern from a few days ago that there is no good reason why retail power prices are going up. Somebody is profiteering and government regulators need to act.
Definitely need stronger rules for data centres re power and their contributions, we need to get this right
While I wish we didn’t need an oil refinery it makes sense to have one in many ways, not sure it make sense to build it in WA though. Wouldn’t you put it closer to where most of the people live?
Mahreen Faruqi interview on RN Breakfast this morning well worth a listen. Reason for it was around the Hanson court case and why it mattered so much. Was also strong on One Nation more broadly, effectively labelling them as grifters backed by billionaires
Looking forward to further analysis of the MRP by those who have time to do it. Full numbers are available now. I think we get a YouGov tonight
Have a great day All
Rex, it’s a pre-feasibility study, ie. a study to determine whether it’s feasible to conduct a feasibility study. It may decide a feasibility study is not worthwhile. It may also find that it is worthwhile investigating the possibility of refining canola into biodiesel – currently the vast majority of the canola we grow is sold to Europe and made into heavily subsidised biofuels. Whether this is a good idea or not is difficult to say. The EU would probably be wiser to put the money into electrifying transport. However, to keep the voters on side (and avoid culture wars) politicians often have to make irrational decisions.
Hard Being Greensays:
Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 8:48 am
Have a great day All
_______________________
Freedom day. The Andrews/ Allan era might be coming to an end.
Hard Being Green
Take the seat of Dickson in QLD
The demos MRP , assumption is going against the actual election results from 2025 federal election
One nation had 1% swing against them , and one nation primary vote was 4.17%
One nation didn’t bother to run a candidate when there was a QLD state by-election in an Labor held seat, so where to they get the assumption of whether, if there is a swing to one nation.
The WA refinery proposal does not mean abandoning net zero.
We have 20 million light vehicles on the road, and sell one million new cars and utes each year. It will take us 20 years to switch to a completely electric vehicle fleet, even when we have reached 100% EVs being sold as new cars.
So we will still need a reliable vehicle fuel supply for at least 20 years. After then some supply of Avgas and diesel for industrial use will still be unavoidable.
In transport we might need to aim for a target of net 5%, rather than net zero, until somebody can invent a long range electric aircraft.
Lots of words from Govt re the family violence crisis but little action.
For example, a recommendation to ban gambling ads, but largely ignored.
Somehow, I don’t think Albo will be going to this.
https://www.anu.edu.au/events/meet-the-author-amy-remeikis-0
New oil refinery, gas and coal extensions… don’t piss down my back and tell me it’s raining re net zero.
– SMH
Perhaps if a new coalition Liberal/One Nation government survived their first joint party room meeting , they’d give you an extra holiday to celebrate Freedom Day.
Nah, won’t happen they’ll know how much time you spend on PB already.
Allan is to make an announcement at 9.30. It’s safe to say she will resign.
Jacinta Allan has been considering her position for months. Apart from being unpopular in the electorate generally, she is bound to lose her own seat at election. She may be many things, but she is not stupid.
Delay in getting to this point, was mainly due to the teachers dispute being unresolved.
This week is the last chance regarding timing to make the change.
I can tell you there is some kabuki theatre going on.
So there is that.
Mavis
Thank dog. A prolonged leadership selection process would have been suicidal.
Socrates says: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 9:04 am
Have you seen this from Rosemary Barnes: Diesel Trucks Drive in One End, Electric Trucks Drive Out the Other? I think it’s an interesting solution from an Australian company.
I think we and other Western countries need to be net negative to make up for the few things, or countries, that can’t or won’t go net zero.
Goll at 9.16
Yes, one might expect that if the Lib/ON coalition comprises 70, there’ll be 100 different opinions expressed on a particular issue. But that won’t matter if the coalition can muster a majority vote on significant propoed legislation (bills). A threat of disendorsement in a new election would bring many recalcitrants into line.
FWIW, William has set up a dedicated thread for the Vic leadership stuff
https://www.pollbludger.net/2026/07/28/victorian-newspoll-and-labor-leadership-spill/
Hard Being Green,
I assume WA is the proposed site of the new refinery because the existing two have the east coast covered (Vic and Queensland).
Pin pulled.
2/3rd of the Goodies are gone 🙁
https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2026/jul/27/bill-oddie-naturalist-and-broadcaster-dies
GoldenSmaug @ 0934
Graeme Garden is still with us.
The nasty and totally unpleasant Chip Le Grand will be salivating at the news just now.
Just before you say anything TaylorMade and Nath I met the so called ‘journalist’ at a function a few years ago and found him a totally repulsive and nasty individual. Had nothing pleasant to say about anyone in politics and reminded me of a younger Neil Mitchell.
@Steven in Mildura
Not surprising, Chip Le Grand’s nastiness really oozes into his writing.
gollsays:
Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 9:16 am
Perhaps if a new coalition Liberal/One Nation government survived their first joint party room meeting , they’d give you an extra holiday to celebrate Freedom Day.
Nah, won’t happen they’ll know how much time you spend on PB already.
_______________________
I was actually thinking about pulling a sickie so I could follow all the drama and be here with you guys.
But I’m at work. A good decision as it might be a non event anyway.
25 years working for “The Australian” tends to say a lot about someone.
JA resigns
What say you zoomster regarding JA resignation?
Yes, it is unfortunate.
bc
The best thing we can do is get ourselves to net zero before worrying about others.
And ofcourse Australia still needs fuel refineries. For decades yet, and perhaps in perpetuity.
Labor has had years to secure our national fuel supply and has failed abysmally to do so. We are very little better off than we were when the latest oil crisis started, and global oil supply buffers have reached new and dangerous lows, which means our offshore supply is now at even more risk of disruption.
The really annoying thing is how predictable this was. It very likely was predicted in the governments report on the security implications of climate change, which the government still refuses to release.
But there is no reason or need to abandon net zero. Net zero does not mean actual zero in all cases. It has always been recognized that there are some things that will never reach actual zero, and which will need to be compensated for by things like LULUCF, which can be negative.
Australia’s problem is that to date we have essentially wasted our natural LULUCF advantages by using them to hide the fact that we are not making sufficient progress in emissions reduction even when it comes to the low hanging fruit – like electricity generation.
Now the hard stuff – like industry and transport – is going to be even harder.
Well done, Labor.
Goll told me that Jacinta Allan was safe as houses and all this was conspiracy talk.
nath
Well I didn’t. so there is that.