Three new federal polls produce a range of movements for the leading parties, partly but not entirely due to their different time scales (weekly for one poll, fortnightly for another, monthly for a third). The fortnightly Sky News Pulse poll by YouGov, which was an outlier last time in failing to show a drop for One Nation, comes good this time with a four-point drop to 26%, while Labor is down a point to 28%, the Coalition are up three to 20% and the Greens are down one to 12%. Respondent-allocated two-party preferred measures have Labor’s lead out from 54-46 to 56-44 against One Nation, and in from 54-46 to 53-47 against the Coalition. Pauline Hanson also takes a hit on preferred prime minister against Anthony Albanese, whose lead is out from 49-40 to 54-35. Albanese is up two on approval to 38% and down one on disapproval to 56%, while Angus Taylor is down three to 33% and up two to 49%, and Albanese’s lead over Taylor as preferred prime minister is out from 44-35 to 45-34. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to this Tuesday from a sample of 1468.
The monthly DemosAU poll for Capital Brief has Labor down one to 26%, One Nation down one to 29%, the Coalition up three to 21% and the Greens up one to 14%. Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings are down one for positive to 25%, up two for neutral to 27% and and down one for negative to 48%; Angus Taylor is up two on positive to 24%, down one for neutral to 49% and down one for negative to 27%; and Pauline Hanson is down three on positive to 34%, steady on 23% neutral and up three on negative to 43%. A three-way preferred prime minister question has Albanese steady on 35%, Taylor up three to 22% and Hanson down two to 26%. Head-to-head ratings, which weren’t included last time, have Albanese and Taylor tied at 38-all, and Albanese leading Hanson 42-37. The poll was conducted July 3 to 8 from a sample of 2694.
As with the weekend’s Resolve Strategic poll, respondents were queried about their views on a range of statements advanced by Pauline Hanson during her National Press Club speech, with distinctly less favourable results – the most obvious explanation being that Resolve Strategic’s question specifically identified the views with Hanson whereas DemosAU did not. Resolve had 33% in favour and 39% opposed on the question of whether Australia “should be monocultural, rather than multicultural”, while an all but identically worded proposition from DemosAU has 25% in favour and 51% opposed. Hanson’s proposal for the ABC had 31% in favour and 40% opposed from Resolve, while DemosAU respectively has it at 21% and 54%. Where Resolve had 32% in favour and 36% against the contention that “it should be easier for companies to sack people”, DemosAU had 32% in favour and 43% opposed to the seemingly more gently worded “employers should have more flexibility to dismiss workers”.
After recording a nine-point slump for One Nation over its two previous polls, the weekly Roy Morgan series has them bouncing back five-and-a-half points to 28%, with Labor down half a point to 27.5%, the Coalition down one-and-a-half to 20% and the Greens down one-and-a-half to 12.5%. Labor’s respondent-allocated two-party lead over One Nation has duly narrowed, from 56-44 to 52.5-47.5, and its leads over the Coalition have narrowed from 55-45 to 54-46 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 54-46 to 52.5-47.5 on previous election preferences. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1612.
Interesting YouGov has given CSA a run with 2% as a kick off point. Something to watch in the 20 odd months until the next election. If it’s that long. I hope Labor moves away from the May schedule because of the impacts on budget timing
Noting that if they do, the next budget will potentially be the pre-election one
Good to see Ven accept Labor is stuck at 28. I think he is right that pushing back against One Nation is giving the Liberals a boost. The party does seem very divided on how to approach them though
Greens ranging from 12-14 in this round of polls but 12 feels more like where they’re at for now
It will be interesting to see the gender breakdowns, I think you’ll probably find some of those missing female voters from Labor in the Greens column. They seem to be a difficult demographic for Labor to win back at present
I’m guessing we get Newspoll on Sunday next
France vs Spain should be a cracker. France to get it done imo
Spain leads 1-0 after converting a penalty.
TACO is at it again:
– SMH
Gee it’s hard for neutrals to feel much enthusiasm for the Spanish team. So much creative talent but such an incredibly defensive mindset.
Their penalty was a matter of luck: a casual bit of defending which provided the Spanish player with an opportunity to throw himself at the French player’s foot. A clear penalty within the rules, but not really the sort of foul play the penalty kick is meant to punish.
And now Spain are hanging on to their one goal lead like grim death. They are the Geoff Boycotts of soccer. Grimly effective.
Spain 2 – 0.
Except, as it turns out, not much holding on might be required by Spain because France are losing it. What a pity.
24 hrs is a long time in US politics. Trump will now not toll the Straits of Hormuz.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-backs-away-from-fee-plan-on-strait-of-hormuz-20260715-p60fcf.html
(Possibly another pump and dump)
Claims by the Coalition and One Nation that abandoning a net zero climate target would bring down power prices are contradicted in a new CSIRO report on the costs of generating electricity.
Generation costs will probably rise after 2030 regardless of Australia’s policy on net zero, according to the CSIRO’s annual GenCost report, but prices should then stabilise at levels below recent price spikes.
The report concludes electricity from nuclear plants, which the Coalition and One Nation promote, would be the most expensive way to generate electricity among the current options.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/jul/15/coalition-and-one-nations-plan-to-ditch-net-zero-would-not-lower-power-prices-csiro-report-finds
https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-15975365/far-right-tradie-threats-albanese-burke-nazi-sydney-sentencing.html
World News & Politics Patrol:
Trump pivots from 20 percent Strait of Hormuz fee amid Iran war escalation: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/14/trump-pivots-from-20-percent-strait-of-hormuz-fee-amid-iran-war-escalation
Russia accuses Ukraine of terrorism in Sea of Azov as Kyiv opens new front in war: https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-prepares-reroute-grain-exports-sea-azov-after-ukrainian-attacks-2026-07-14/
“We are closing the door to the Russians”: the Hungarian Ministry of Defense announced: https://prm.ua/en/we-are-closing-the-door-to-the-russians-the-hungarian-ministry-of-defense-announced-a-change-of-course/
Russia’s Fuel Crisis Hits Hospitals and Fire Services as State Contracts Collapse: https://united24media.com/world/russias-fuel-crisis-hits-hospitals-and-fire-services-as-state-contracts-collapse-20752
UN official says Hamas obstructing aid in Gaza: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/un-official-says-hamas-obstructing-aid-gaza-2026-07-13/
Misuse’ of crowd control weapons on ICE protesters led to blindings and traumatic brain injuries: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jul/14/misuse-crowd-control-weapons-ice-protesters-blindings-traumatic-brain-injuries-report
ICE to temporarily halt conducting vehicle stops: https://abcnews.com/US/ice-temporarily-stop-conducting-vehicle-stops-sources/story?id=134751678
Lake Powell reaching critically low elevation levels, nearing ‘dead power pool: https://abcnews.com/US/lake-powell-reaching-critically-low-elevation-levels-nearing/story?id=134659320&cid=social_twitter_abcn
Trump says FBI is ‘wasting their time’ investigating Lindsey Graham’s death: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-says-fbi-wasting-time-investigating-lindsey-grahams-death-rcna587500
CNBC’s ‘worst states to live’ list sparks backlash after red-state sweep: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-says-fbi-wasting-time-investigating-lindsey-grahams-death-rcna587500
It Sure Looks Like Trump Was the One Who Damaged Reflecting Pool: https://newrepublic.com/post/212987/trump-reflecting-pool-damage-driving-tire-marks
Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear said he is willing to launch a legal challenge to allow him to choose Mitch McConnell’s replacement if the senator cannot return to office: https://www.thedailybeast.com/kentuckys-dem-governor-andy-beshear-threatens-nuclear-option-on-mitch-crisis/
Senate Democrats block $1.15 trillion defense authorization bill: https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5967878-senate-democrats-block-ndaa/
Senators unveil sweeping Russia sanctions bill, urge passage in honor of Graham: https://edition.cnn.com/2026/07/14/politics/senators-unveil-russia-sanctions-bill?cid=ios_app
Man dressed as fox pulls out of Clacton election because it’s become a ‘circus’: https://metro.co.uk/2026/07/14/man-dressed-fox-pulls-clacton-election-become-a-circus-29131323/
500,000 households cancel TV licence putting BBC future in jeopardy: https://inews.co.uk/news/media/500000-households-cancel-tv-licence-putting-bbc-future-in-jeopardy-4644506
Final score Spain 2 France 0.
Spanish midfield way too good.
Hard Being Green:
Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 2:56 am
I hope you didn’t put money on France.
I can’t say that I know much about soccer, but in my view, Spain played a corker.
What does CSIRO know!
Only L-NP and PN especially Dan Tehan, who goes on Nuclear Power study tours to US and UK and Barnaby Joyce, who is the salt of earth because he doesn’t hesitate to lie on soil of earth.
You wait CSIRO! Once L-NP-ON comes to power, you are gone. So, you better behave like ABC or else.
No wonder, more Australians don’t want net zero target than who want it.
(From previous thread.)
Re: Telstra outage, a quick look at (old) time servers.
“If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” Fair enough, but “if it ain’t fixed, don’t break it” applies too.
Telstra had a REALLY bad time last week
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1T9xQy-dsQo
Pedro! Pedro! Pedro! 🙂
Mavis
You were right, Spain were brilliant. They seemed in control of the ball most of the time. French star strikers like Mbappe and Dembele hardly saw the ball and were well marked by the Spanish defence.
Spain the new favourites? They get an extra day’s rest too.
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez holds a negative net approval rating, with approximately 33% of Spaniards holding a favorable opinion of him and 63% holding an unfavorable view, according to YouGov(i.e.. -30 negative rating). This reflects broader political headwinds and domestic challenges, though he remains one of the more recognized European leaders YouGov.
Ven
Yes he (Pedro) was brilliant!
I thought the whole Spanish midfield was great. They passed the ball around in a way that just didn’t let the French forwards get a chance. Not flashy but hard to best.
You can bet the Spanish PM will be booking a flight for the final so that he can be seen next to this team 🙂
HH thankss for the international roundup p. Off to the gym for me.
Diabolical!!!
How popular are national leaders in Europe? June 2026
30 June 2026
YouGov European tracker series looks at the popularity of the leaders of Britain, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy and Spain
https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/55068-how-popular-are-national-leaders-in-europe-june-2026
“Spain the new favourites?”
Suck it, Trump.
Mavis
His sporting prognostications are about as useful as the free advice he gives the ALP.
Socrates:
Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 7:08 am
Mbappe had two shots at goal near the end of the second half, and they both went a foot or two above the crossbar.
Lost on the match Mavis but still ahead for the tournament, congrats Spain. Too good
Spain being rewarded for their strong support of Palestine and refusal to help Trump in Iran
Bring on Argentina vs England tomorrow. Although I probably won’t watch it either lol
Omar Comin’:
Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 7:19 am
Who’s that?
It appears something has twigged that the populace is uneasy about the onslaught of AI, and it needs firmer government regulation. So rather than the Balkanised approach so far – with the ‘light touch’ policy which, amongst other things, saw Ed Husic sidelined – bring it in to PM&C.
I suspect this is a big win for the up and coming Andrew Charlton.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/9310618/anthony-albanese-established-new-pmc-ai-office-to-make-australia-world-first/
Better late than never:
– CNN
Also, the drumbeats about the uncontrolled US AI intrusion is heating up as an issue for the ALP National Conference…
Interesting timing with NYC announcing a 12 month moratorium on large data centres and Albanese giving his big AI speech today
My approach generally to AI is that it’s like a train and you can either be on it or under it, so get onboard
Building large data centres might be a good train to miss though given the environmental impacts. Proper planning and regulations definitely required and very strong guardrails on AI more broadly
Accelerated approvals would be a mistake imo
Hard Being Green says:
Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 7:40 am
Interesting timing with NYC announcing a 12 month moratorium on large data centres and Albanese giving his big AI speech today
My approach generally to AI is that it’s like a train and you can either be on it or under it, so get onboard
Building large data centres might be a good train to miss given the environmental impacts. Proper planning and regulations definitely required and very strong guardrails on AI more broadly
Accelerated approvals would be a mistake imo
__________
So ride the train but let other countries build the track.
meher baba at 6.16 am, Mavis at 7.01 am and Socrates at 7.08 am, plus Lynchpin a month ago
Surely Boycott would have scored only once after 90 minutes.
Mavis it’s essentially a team game. Only if the teams are equally cohesive do the individual stars matter more.
Mr Boateng on SBS pointed out that the French lacked the ability to shift their style of play when Spain had stopped their main avenue of attack.
Re Lynchpin’s old comment about the Brazilian midfielder Socrates, he was known as “the doctor” because he had a medical degree and was very politically aware of the downtrodden.
He didn’t practice long as a doctor because he could earn more playing as a footballer in Brazil.
When he was 10 years old he saw his father have to sacrifice much of his library because of the repression from the military dictatorship. He used his status to oppose authoritarianism.
What the French lacked on the field was someone like Socrates who was able to direct play from the midfield.
The following link has an overview, executive summary, and full version of the GenCost Report:
https://www.csiro.au/en/research/technology-space/energy/Electricity-transition/GenCost
It provides the capital costs of different electricity generation technologies. The numbers have changed slightly from previous versions, but the overall story hasn’t. This is the key graph:
-> Technologies to the right of the vertical lines will, if built, put upward pressure on retail prices.
There is also this historical reflection:
https://www.csiro.au/en/news/All/Articles/2026/July/GenCost-at-eight
The datacentres will happen whether they happen in australia or not. In fact it is highly likely that 99% of them will happen somewhere other than in australia.
They will have environmental impacts somewhere.
Oh… they will have economic, political and social impacts in Australia.
The $64 question is whether we will try to manage what comes through a cable from under the sea or whether we try to manage what is happening inside a building sitting inside our borders.
– NPR
It appears that ICE is sending the less-than-subtle message that mess with us & you’ll be shot dead, and authorities won’t do a thing about it.
There’s a balance to be found Griff
When you hear stories like a potential housing development near Geelong becoming a data centre instead it’s obvious the priorities aren’t right
Probably good to recognise that there is a massive AI bubble at present as well with revenues no where near covering costs
Proceed, but proceed with caution imo
What drives gen z? Not so much a career or climate change but a roof over their heads.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/jul/15/young-australians-buying-home-housing-climate-change-concerns-report
Mavis
It is always what happens when authoritarian regimes arms psychopaths and gives them judicial cover.
The NYTimes leading with ‘flip-flop’ Trump…
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/14/business/trump-strait-of-hormuz.html
Ven at 7.06 pm re net zero
Your last comment lacks evidence.
As B.S. Fairman pointed out, the issues questions in that Resolve poll were not posed clearly enough to be reliable.
You can see from the discrepancies with the Demos poll at the top that such surveys are far from precise.
The problem is that Albo & Co. have not tried yet to expose the economic idiocy of the LNP/Hanson cult view, which is essentially a full denial of the reality of global warming, as put more than once by Abbott with his “crap” comment etc.
Perhaps Albo is waiting for the horrid summer that awaits us with El Niño before highlighting climate action.
Wrt data centres, there are lots of stories in the media – not many of them are true. Moreover, there’s a tendency to conflate local issues around data centres with those in the US. This is a mistake for two reasons.
Firstly, the scale of construction. In the US, the electricity demand of data centres is huge. Here, not so much:
Secondly, the planning and regulatory landscapes are vastly different. For example, in some US states it would easier for a homeowner to install a data centre on their roof than solar panels. Whereas here in the banana*
republicfederation of Australia it’s hard to build anything.*banana = Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anyone
Re Hard Being Green @2:56 AM
The Greens do better in polls than they do in actual elections. In the latter, their support has been around 12% for a while. They are a niche party that appeals to about one in eight voters.
Re Sprocket @7:55, quoting the NYT
I think that they also show that Donald Trump doesn’t have a clue what he’s doing, just making it up as he goes along. A bit worrying given that he is the most powerful man on the world, who has surrounded himself with sycophants, imbeciles and chancers.
Orwellian!!!
Trump puts 1984 into practice.
CNN
Trump says Thursday address will focus on ‘free and fair elections’
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/07/14/politics/trump-thursday-speech-elections?Date=20260714&Profile=CNN&utm_content=1784050098&utm_medium=social&utm_source=bluesky
The Greens are almost weirdly silent atm.
Not sure if that’s a deliberate strategy or whether they’ve simply run out of effective voices.
Hardly ever hear from Waters, and she doesn’t interview well.
HH DP
Pivot is the wrong word. TACO is the right word.
Orwellian again!!!
This time by Putin
HPDP
Zoomster sadly the Greens don’t control what the mainstream media does and doesn’t run with
At the state level, Abigail Boyd was on RN Breakfast this morning re the child sex abuse in childcare. Well worth a listen
Ven – the CSIRO has copped over 1000 job cuts under the current government, disgraceful given the crucial work they do
Time to get to work, enjoy your day folks
“The Greens do better in polls than they do in actual elections. In the latter, their support has been around 12% for a while. They are a niche party that appeals to about one in eight voters.”
I mean thats not exactly true (refer to the numbers WB posted a few days back on historic polling per party and expected election outcomes).
Perfect timing; jump into the bubble just before it pops… at least local economies will have a large supply of copper to “utilise”
Peter Zeihan – why Nobody Came to Help the U.S in Iran:
https://youtu.be/v9jD_EmzoAw?si=XqNDz1mCJCcpFRb8
He gives some background as to how the war started (Netanyahu found a useful idiot) and what’s going on in the behind the scenes (chaos).
Recommend today’s Ette Media ‘Used to be Journos’ deep dive into the Royal Commission’s look at the media.