Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.
To qualify for a membership ballot, a candidate for UK Labour leadership required 20% of all Labour MPs (81 MPs in the current parliament). Andy Burnham is the only candidate to meet this threshold, winning endorsements from 379 of the 403 Labour MPs (94%). He will be elected unopposed to replace Keir Starmer as Labour leader and PM and will become PM on Monday.
The Election Maps UK aggregate of national polls has the populist right Reform leading with 26.0%, followed by Labour at 20.8%, the Conservatives 19.8%, the Greens 13.0%, the Liberal Democrats 12.1% and the populist right Restore 3.2%. There has been movement since late May against Reform and towards Labour and the Conservatives. Seat projections give Reform 250 of the 650 seats, but they would reach a majority with the support of the Conservatives (87 seats).
The Greater Manchester mayoral by-election to replace Burnham after his June 18 election to the UK parliament will occur on July 30. It will be the biggest UK by-election. This by-election will be held using the “supplementary vote” system, where voters get two preferences. Mayoral elections prior to 2024 used this system, but the Conservatives regressed to first-past-the-post for 2024-26 mayoral elections. Labour reverted to the supplementary vote.
In the 2024 mayoral election, Burnham won 63.4%, with the Conservatives a very distant second with 10.4%, followed by 7.6% for an independent, 7.5% Reform, 6.9% Greens and 4.2% Lib Dems. An early July Find Out Now poll gave Labour 38%, the Greens 22%, Reform 19%, Restore 9% and the Conservatives 8%. After preferences, Labour defeats the Greens 64-36 and Reform 66-34.
On July 7, Reform leader Nigel Farage announced he would resign as Member for Clacton and recontest Clacton at the ensuing August 13 by-election. No other well-known party will contest this by-election. It’s likely Farage’s main opponent will be joke candidate Count Binface. In 2024, Farage defeated the Conservatives in Clacton by 46.2-27.9 with 16.2% for Labour.
US updates
At November midterm elections, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 senators will be up for election. At the 2024 elections, Republicans won the House over Democrats by 220-215 and the Senate by 53-47.
Owing to Republican gerrymandering, Democrats need about a four-point popular vote margin to win the House. The two senators per state rule helps Republicans, and Democrats will need a double-digit popular vote margin to win the Senate on a uniform swing.
In Nate Silver’s aggregate of the generic ballot, Democrats lead Republicans by 48.0-41.9, a 6.1-point margin that is down from a peak of 7.1 points in late May. Donald Trump’s net approval has climbed from a low of -20.2 in late May to -17.0.
Democratic nominee Graham Platner withdrew from the Maine Senate contest last Friday after sexual assault allegations. Democrats have until July 27 to select a replacement candidate. Maine should be the easiest gain for Democrats as Kamala Harris defeated Trump there by 6.9 points in 2024.
Republicans currently control the House by 219-212 with four vacancies. Two Democrats qualified for the August 18 runoff in California 14 after a June 16 jungle primary. After the death of the Democratic incumbent in late April, a jungle primary for Georgia 13 will occur on July 28 with a runoff if needed on August 25. No special for the two other vacancies that occurred in April (one Democrat, one Republican) has yet been scheduled.
Other elections
The 56 Cypriot seats are elected by proportional representation in six multi-member electorates. At the May 24 election, the conservative DISY won 17 seats (steady since 2021), the communist AKEL 15 (steady), the populist right ELAM eight (up four) and the centrist DIKO eight (down one). The DISY retained government.
Malta has 13 five-member seats using proportional representation with preferences, with extra seats added to ensure overall proportionality. At the May 30 election, Labour defeated the conservative Nationalists by 42 seats to 37, winning its fourth successive term (44-35 to Labour in 2022). Malta retains a strong two-party system, with Labour defeating the Nationalists on vote shares by 51.8-44.7.
In final results of the June 7 Peruvian presidential runoff election, right-winger Fujimori defeated left-winger Sánchez by 50.13-49.87. This was Fujimori’s first win after three consecutive runoff losses.
AORTA carry Burnham into the House on a shield.
US Elections – South Carolina is going to have a special Republican primary on August 11 for the Senate seat opened by the death of Lindsey Graham.
His sister, Darline Graham Nordone, has been appointed to serve the rest of the term (at least until the next elected senator is known after the midterms). She is actually quite qualified to serve as she has been involved in public service in South Carolina for years in the disability sector. It is unknown if she will run for the seat permanently. She is also the first female Senator from South Carolina.
So far the only candidate to have stated they will run is Mark Lynch. He came second in the earlier primary against Lindsey Graham with 28.9% to Graham’s 56.8%. Other thinking about running are almost every Republican HoR member from South Carolina. Additionally, Mark Sanford is thinking about throwing his hat into the ring; He was most famous for being the Governor who “disappeared hiking the Appalachian trail” to have an affair with his Argentinian mistress in 2009; later was forgiven by voters and became a member of HoR.
On the Democratic side, Dr Annie Andrews won the primary and was polling within 3% of Lindsey Graham before his death. An unpopular choice of replacement on the Republican side, could see the gap close even more.
The Mancunian Messiah hasn’t impressed me much at all. He seems to be rather full of himself in the Tony Blair fashion. And he doesn’t really seem to stand for anything in particular beyond a sort of vibe.
However, with the wheels coming off Farage ATM, Burnham has a golden opportunity to solidify Labor’s position. It will be interesting to see how he goes.
His honeymoon with the media is close to done. Now it starts to get tough.
Farage has until 4pm on Friday (UK time) to nominate for Clacton. There is a rumour that he will use the murder of Ann Widdecombe to excuse himself from running – “It is too unsafe”, “The establishment is not providing me with enough security”, etc.
He doesn’t need to be in Parliament to remain leader of Reform, he barely showed up in the last two years for votes or speeches. He could just do the same media rounds and keep in the public eye for the next 3 years before the next election.
However, if was to do that, it would probably harm him as he wouldn’t look serious any more. Therefore I think he will run.
Yep.
I got Starmer 100% wrong. I thought he would get in on some vague assurances and then kick arse once he had the five years in the bag. He turned out to be an empty pinata.
Burnham seems to be starting out the same way.
More In Common poll covering 10-13 July.
Reform: 26% (-1)
Labour: 22% (+1)
Conservative: 22% (=)
Green: 12% (+2)
Lib Dems: 12% (+1)
SNP: 2% (-1)
Plaid Cymru: 1% (=)
Others: 2% (-3)
Approval Ratings:
Keir Starmer: 19% Approve, 62% Disapprove (-43)
Rachel Reeves: 15% Approve, 56% Disapprove (-41)
Kemi Badenoch: 32% Approve, 29% Disapprove (+3)
Ed Davey: 20% Approve, 26% Disapprove (-6)
Nigel Farage: 26% Approve, 50% Disapprove (-24)
Zack Polanski: 19% Approve, 38% Disapprove (-19)
Andy Burnham: 26% Approve, 23% Disapprove (+3)
Biggest Issues:
Cost of Living: 70%
Supporting the NHS: 31%
Asylum Seekers crossing the channel: 30%
Levels of immigration: 30%
Crime: 18%
Affordable Housing: 17%
Jobs and Unemployment: 16%
Climate change and the Environment: 15%
Welfare and Benefits: 15%
Conflict in the Middle East: 10%
Well, Andy Burnham’s first 100 days as PM are going to be vital. 51% of voters haven’t formed an opinion about him yet, so he’s going to need to be very skillful in turning things around for Labour. If he doesn’t, Labour can’t pull off this maneuver twice, they’ll limp on to defeat in 2029.
“Mayoral elections prior to 2024 used this system, but the Conservatives regressed to. . .”
No personal bias from this author then! 🙂
Manchester Mayor
Greens might have had a chance to win under FPTP, if they successfully monopolised the Muslim vote, though less likely than it might have been at the time of the Gorton and Denton by-election as their extreme and racist views under the current leadership have been more widely exposed on a national level – by Labour more than anybody in fact!
Reform would have had an even slimmer chance under FPTP, which would have needed various things to align well for them – such as national polls being in an ‘up’ phase in the bumpy road – plus some kind of pact with Restore and Conservative – or at least their voters. The latter would obviously necessitate a good candidate, which I think they have though I can’t remember who!
But anyway, under 2nd prefs etc. nobody but Labour can win in Manchester, Green and Reform are too toxic to each others’ voters, and Labour are not going to fall behind anybody after prefs barring a calamity hitting their campaign and/or Andy Burnham PM – hence the sudden rush by Labour to change the law when they did, just now, to pre-empt/take the sting out of opponents’ campaign efforts before they’d even started.
With the timing perfect to coincide with what I’d expect to be a short, sharp honeymoon for Burnham and him being somewhat entwined with Manchester of course. . . by the time he’s made a couple of speeches to the nation in Manchester flanked by their mayoral candidate, and knocked on a couple of doors for them just for the cameras, Labour might still hit the dizzy heights of 50% – though less incentive for people to give them 1st prefs under the system being used.
50%, of course, would be well down on Burnham’s 60s% but in the circumstances of 2026 would be a massive publicity boon for Labour that might shore them up nationally for a bit longer (or just take them a bit higher up the ladder, ready for an even harder fall, depending which way you want to look at it).
Darline Graham Nordone is a smart choice politically as well as a logical stop-gap choice seen as fairly apolitical (she’s not very well-known or previously involved prominently in politics) that emotionally pleases Lindsey Graham supporters and can be respected by opponents/Independents in the circumstances.
It feeds into the narrative that is casting Graham in a fresh light post-humously as a much softer person than given credit for by his opponents, not least tracing back to his youth where, in Darline’s words, he was “both mother and father to her” after they were orphaned when Lindsay was 20 and Darline was, I think, 12. He literally brought her up, she didn’t go to live elsewhere I understand.
Plus the many personal accounts coming out that support the narrative that he was, personally, a very personable man including towards political opponents. Of course he was relatively centrist, other than being a known foreign policy hawk – which is why he was hated the world over by enemies of freedom. Especially recent times, as he had the President’s ear.
The idea that MAINE should be an easy pick-up suggests a lack of understanding of state-specific facts of relevance.
Susan Collins is very well-suited to her state and is running again. She appeals to Independents and has defied the logic that, multiple times previously, suggested that Democrats should win. There’s no reason she can’t do that again.
Worth noting that Maine has been Dem-leaning all the years she’s held that seat.
@BTsays at 6:33pm
Perhaps, but Susan Collins doesn’t look so good politically or healthily anymore. I saw her recently on a news interview, her voice shakes almost as badly as RFK Jr.
The Platner stuff has almost certainly weakened the Democrats though. Hopefully the new Democratic candidate can turn things around. Both sides of the Democratic party have screwed this up though, the Progressive side for not vetting Platner closely enough and the Establishment side for clearing the board in favour of Janet Mills who didn’t even want to run in the first place, but Chuck Schumer wanted her in, now they’ve damaged each other so badly that it’s going to be more difficult to flip the seat.
BT Says or Kirsdarke,
Do you think it likely that there will be a by-election for Starmer’s seat before the end of the year.
ie: WIll he likely resign from Holborn and St Pancras when he’s replaced on Monday.
@Thel C
I think Starmer will probably do a Gordon Brown and remain on the backbench for the rest of the term before retiring. Governments rarely actively want by-elections in seats they hold.
Thanks Kirsdarke,
I was thinking the ex-PM’s got automatic entry into the Lords, so there would be no point him hanging around in the Commons, but having an unnecessary byelection probably is best avoided.
Re Susan Collins -she’s upset a lot of independents with many of her votes supporting the trump agenda and nominees. Her expressing ‘concern’ about them but then voting for them anyway doesn’t play well anymore.
Re Darline Graham Nordone as a placeholder no one cares what her views are. Trump and Thune will basically tell her what to do and that’s all they want – a reliable GOP vote in the Senate and someone who won’t ask any difficult questions for a few months (not that they’ll me many votes due to a long summer recess)
Re Clacton if Farrago falls to put his nomination papers in then he’s likely finished as far as being an MP goes. Resigning so he can stand again to somehow
“clear his name” but then failing to stand is frankly ridiculous. Just imagine all the “he’s scared of a bin” memes that’ll follow him around for ever.
Re Manchester Mayor yes Labour put back in the voting system that the tories originally put in when they created the role of metro mayors. Until they changed their minds.
Re Burnham – will be hard to make any sort of 100 days impact when Parliament isn’t sitting until the beginning of September then it’s back for a couple weeks to when off again for the party conference recess. So no PMQs or statements or signature legislation to debate. His big moment will be his speech at the Labour Conference. They’ll be some buzz early next week when he does a Cabinet reshuffle but to be frank most voters can’t name more than a handful anyway
Re Starmer – not seeing anything about him going to the Lords. It’s not automatic ex PMs get peerages these days but if he wanted to then it’s easily arranged, Sunak is still an MP for example. Thatcher also remained in the House until the 1992 general election. Major stayed in as well until 2001.
Acceptance speech approx 9.08pm AEST. (Fri 17 July)
2 hours and 2o minutes until the close of nominations in Clacton. No Farage announcement yet, however, he is scheduled to speak 5 minutes after the close at Liz Truss’s poorly attended Conservative Political Action Conference.
He made it in time, along with 33 others!
https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/news/clacton-voters-to-choose-next-mp-as-by-election-candidates-confirmed
Seems strange that the local council is doing a “federal” by-election.
The Official Monster Raving Loony Party have mucked up! They’ve put three people up for the election. They’re gonna split their vote.
What a lucky guy Andy Burnham is. He became UK PM unopposed. Can you believe that? UK PMship fell into his lap. It was obvious even when he was not MP. The only restriction he had was that he had to become MP. Well anything can happen in modern Britain.
Did anything like this ever happen in in Western democracies?
It happened to Modi when he became CM of State of Gujarat in India. After becoming CM, he won by-election as MLA(member of legislative assembly), won 3 consecutive Gujarat state elections as CM, won 3 consecutive federal elections.
33 candidates, wowsers
Hopefully Count Binface gets it done
“Did anything like this ever happen in in Western democracies”
Mark Carney. He wasn’t even in Parliament at the time and had never been elected to Parliament. John Turner was another Canadian who had a brief stint as PM, because unlike Carney, he lost the election he called after being appointed as PM.
In a twist of fate, the precipitating resignation for Carney to become PM was Justin Trudeau, and for Turner, it was Pierre Trudeau, Justin’s father.
There’s no reason it couldn’t happen in Australia, as there is the same lack of inclusion in the two constitutional documents. Gorton is our most “unusual” PM in terms of what he was doing before becoming PM (in the Senate).
Ghost Of Whitlam says:
Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 10:00 am
Seems strange that the local council is doing a “federal” by-election.
***************
Organisation of elections is a function of local councils over here – that includes registration of voters, candidate nomination, preparation of ballots, administration of the poll and the election count.
Ven
Sunak became Tory Leader and PM unopposed when Truss resigned.
Though that was more because the 1922 Tory backbenchers committee changed the rules by making the minimum number of nominations so high that it made it difficult for any other MP to get the numbers. It also made the process so much quicker by not having to have a party members ballot.
In 2007 when Blair resigned only Gordon Brown exceeded the nomination threshold. He had so many nominations it was mathematically impossible for anyone else to get onto the ballot. There was no messing with the criteria as they were set down in the party rules.
The requirement for a leadership candidate (for most parties) to be an MP has long been the situation here. There isn’t a law that says the PM has to be an MP but it is convention. It is party rules that make is so.
The last time we had a PM who wasn’t an MP was in the 1960s when Alec Douglas Hume was selected by Tory Grandees to be party leader and thus PM when Macmillan resigned. He did have a seat in the Lords but soon resigned to fight a parliamentary by-election. For a few weeks he was PM without being in either House of Parliament.
Survation poll for the UK, specifically asking how people would vote with Andy Burnham as Labour leader (Poll covering 10-14 July, compared with their last on 11-15 June).
Labour: 24% (+5)
Reform: 24% (-3)
Conservative: 21% (+1)
Green: 11% (=)
Lib Dems: 11% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Plaid Cymru: 2% (=)
Restore Britain: 2% (=)
Others: 2% (-2)
The Burnham Bounce, how long will it last?
Interesting one of his first moves is to abolish the Digital Id. Sad another is to drill for more oil and gas in the North Sea
He is going to be a mixed bag
UK Opinium Poll covering 15-17 July (opposed to their last on 7-10 July)
Reform: 23% (-1)
Labour: 22% (+3)
Conservative: 20% (+2)
Green: 14% (-2)
Lib Dems: 11% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Plaid Cymru: 1% (=)
Others: 5% (-2)
Approval ratings:
Keir Starmer: 20% Approve, 58% Disapprove (-38)
Kemi Badenoch: 33% Approve, 30% Disapprove (+3)
Ed Davey: 23% Approve, 25% Disapprove (-2)
Nigel Farage: 26% Approve, 52% Disapprove (-26)
Rachel Reeves: 16% Approve, 53% Disapprove (-37)
Zack Polanski: 22% Approve, 37% Disapprove (-15)
David Lammy: 14% Approve, 37% Disapprove (-23)
Yvette Cooper: 16% Approve, 33% Disapprove (-17)
Shabana Mahmood: 18% Approve, 34% Disapprove (-16)
Ed Milliband: 17% Approve, 41% Disapprove (-24)
James Murray: 12% Approve, 26% Disapprove (-16)
Andy Burnham: 27% Approve, 31% Disapprove (-4)
I am trying to watch the FIFA World Cup Final. Can they just STFU with singing and start the bloody game? Tom Cruise is waffling on about stuff we, as football fans, already know.
And I am not going to watch the half-time show. If I had wanted a concert I would have bought a ticket for a concert, or changed the channel to watch a concert.
I am here for a football match.
Interesting that Burnham is the first catholic in the role of Prime Minister and it has hardly been raised. 20 years ago it would have been an interest aside, 30 years ago it would been a little bit grumbling in the Mail and the express, 50 years ago the tabloid media would have been questioning his loyalty on Northern Ireland, 100 years ago there would have been riots.
I doubt most people care about what religion he practices.
Plus he is quoted as saying he was catholic by upbringing but he’s not particularly religious.
The catholic emancipation act is coming up to its 2ooth anniversary so I doubt there would have been riots 100 years ago.
Andy Burnham is the first Labour Prime Minister from the Labour-Co Operative movement
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_and_Co-operative_Party
ChrisC – Maybe 150 years ago then. It is just interesting that went total unnoticed.
On the not caring about his religion, mostly I think yes as it is not Islam. Then the bigotry would be everywhere.
South Carolina – Graham sister is going to run in the Special primary in South Carolina.